As geopolíticas que sustentam as políticas externas implementadas durante os governos de Geisel e Lula no primeiro mandato encontram-se fundamentadas nas teorias elaboradas pelos pensadores geopolíticos como Mario Travassos, Meira Mattos e Golbery, O contexto atual do cenário subsaariano, que envolve inúmeros atores participantes das estruturas centrais do sistema mundo e de algumas potências médias, elevam a região subsaariana a uma centralidade na geopolítica atual e serve de justificativa para a contextualização histórica da região subsaariana, bem como da ação diplomática do Brasil e uma comparação das políticas externas desenvolvidas durante os governos dos dois presidentes. A busca de semelhanças ou rupturas em contextos diferenciados procura encontrar a continuidade ou descontinuidade da diplomacia para a região. De outro lado, encontrar as projeções geopolíticas para uma inserção do país nas estruturas centrais do sistema internacional, sabidamente um objetivo antigo da diplomacia brasileira. / The geopolitical underpinning the foreign policies implemented during the government of Lula and Geisel - in the first term - they are based on theories developed by thinkers such as geopolitical Mario Travassos, Meira Mattos and Golbery The current context of Saharan scenario, which involves many actors participants of the central structures of the world average and some power, amounting to a central Saharan region in the current geopolitical and serves as a justification for the historical contextualization of the Saharan region and the diplomatic action of Brazil and a comparison of the policies implemented during the governments of the two presidents. The search for similarities or disruptions in different contexts is searching for the continuity or discontinuity of diplomacy for the region. In addition, find the geopolitical projections for insertion of a country in central structures of the international system, formerly known a goal of Brazilian diplomacy.

As geopolíticas que sustentam as políticas externas implementadas durante os governos de Geisel e Lula no primeiro mandato encontram-se fundamentadas nas teorias elaboradas pelos pensadores geopolíticos como Mario Travassos, Meira Mattos e Golbery, O contexto atual do cenário subsaariano, que envolve inúmeros atores participantes das estruturas centrais do sistema mundo e de algumas potências médias, elevam a região subsaariana a uma centralidade na geopolítica atual e serve de justificativa para a contextualização histórica da região subsaariana, bem como da ação diplomática do Brasil e uma comparação das políticas externas desenvolvidas durante os governos dos dois presidentes. A busca de semelhanças ou rupturas em contextos diferenciados procura encontrar a continuidade ou descontinuidade da diplomacia para a região. De outro lado, encontrar as projeções geopolíticas para uma inserção do país nas estruturas centrais do sistema internacional, sabidamente um objetivo antigo da diplomacia brasileira. / The geopolitical underpinning the foreign policies implemented during the government of Lula and Geisel - in the first term - they are based on theories developed by thinkers such as geopolitical Mario Travassos, Meira Mattos and Golbery The current context of Saharan scenario, which involves many actors participants of the central structures of the world average and some power, amounting to a central Saharan region in the current geopolitical and serves as a justification for the historical contextualization of the Saharan region and the diplomatic action of Brazil and a comparison of the policies implemented during the governments of the two presidents. The search for similarities or disruptions in different contexts is searching for the continuity or discontinuity of diplomacy for the region. In addition, find the geopolitical projections for insertion of a country in central structures of the international system, formerly known a goal of Brazilian diplomacy.

Submitted by Júlio Fernandes do Prado Leutwiler null (leutwiler.julio@gmail.com) on 2016-03-03T13:59:15Z No. of bitstreams: 1 REPRIMARIZAÇÃO DA PAUTA DE EXPORTAÇÃO E A ATUAL INSERÇÃO INTERNACIONAL BRASILEIRA (2000-2014).pdf: 2517153 bytes, checksum: 6a41f226ad3990f8750f611f832a9ec5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-03-04T13:49:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 leutwiler_jfp_me_mar.pdf: 2517153 bytes, checksum: 6a41f226ad3990f8750f611f832a9ec5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-04T13:49:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 leutwiler_jfp_me_mar.pdf: 2517153 bytes, checksum: 6a41f226ad3990f8750f611f832a9ec5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-02 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A primeira década do século XXI foi marcada por mudanças no conjunto da economia internacional. No comércio mundial, as características principais foram a alta dos preços de commodities e o aumento do comércio por parte dos países em desenvolvimento, especialmente da China. No Brasil, esta conjuntura foi marcada por um relevante aumento das exportações de produtos considerados primários, apresentando uma tendência cada vez mais perceptível de reprimarização das vendas externas do nosso país. Dessa forma, a presente pesquisa visa analisar a inserção internacional brasileira desde o início dos anos 2000 até 2014, no que se refere às características observadas pelo Brasil no contexto das relações econômicas atuais, buscando responder qual o papel do Brasil na atual divisão internacional do trabalho e sobre a existência de um processo de especialização da economia brasileira em torno da produção de commodities. A análise será desenvolvida tendo como referência o processo de reprimarização das exportações agroindustriais e da pauta de exportação geral da economia brasileira, além disso, é analisado no interior da economia brasileira o controverso processo de desindustrialização e, sobre a ótica da economia internacional, o aumento da participação dos países em desenvolvimento e a demanda de commodities. / The first decade of the twenty-first century was marked by changes in the entire international economy. In world trade, the main features were the high commodity prices and the increased trade by developing countries, especially China. In Brazil, this situation was marked by a significant rise in exports of products considered primary, with a noticeable and increasingly trend of reprimarization in the exports of our country. Thus, the present study aims to analyze the Brazilian international insertion from the early 2000s until 2014, with regard to the characteristics observed in Brazil in the context of current economic relations, seeking to answer what Brazil's role in the current international division of labor and the existence of a process of specialization in the Brazilian economy around the production of commodities. The analysis will be developed with reference to the reprimarization process of agro-industrial exports and the overall export basket of the Brazilian economy, also is analyzed the controversial process of deindustrialization in the interior of Brazilian economy and, on the perspective of the international economy, the increasing participation of developing countries and the demand for commodities. / CAPES: 5224/15-2 / CNPq: 130141/2015-1

[Truncated abstract] This thesis examines competing asset-pricing models in Australia with the goal of establishing the model which best explains cross-sectional stock returns. The research employs Australian equity data over the period 1980-2001, with the major analyses covering the more recent period 1990-2001. The study first documents that existing asset-pricing models namely the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and domestic Fama-French three-factor model fail to meet the widely applied Merton?s zero-intercept criterion for a well-specified pricing model. This study instead documents that the US three-factor model provides the best description of Australian stock returns. The three US Fama-French factors are statistically significant for the majority of portfolios consisting of large stocks. However, no significant coefficients are found for portfolios in the smallest size quintile. This result initially suggests that the largest firms in the Australian market are globally integrated with the US market while the smallest firms are not. Therefore, the evidence at this point implies domestic segmentation in the Australian market. This is an unsatisfying outcome, considering that the goal of this research is to establish the pricing model that best describes portfolio returns. Given pervasive evidence that liquidity is strongly related to stock returns, the second part of the major analyses derives and incorporates this potentially priced factor to the specified pricing models ... This study also introduces a methodology for individual security analysis, which implements the portfolio analysis, in this part of analyses. The technique makes use of visual impressions conveyed by the histogram plots of coefficients' p-values. A statistically significant coefficient will have its p-values concentrated at below a 5% level of significance; a histogram of p-values will not have a uniform distribution ... The final stage of this study employs daily return data as an examination of what is indeed the best pricing model as well as to provide a robustness check on monthly return results. The daily result indicates that all three US Fama-French factors, namely the US market, size and book-to-market factors as well as LIQT are statistically significant, while the Australian three-factor model only exhibits one significant market factor. This study has discovered that it is in fact the US three-factor model with LIQT and not the domestic model, which qualifies for the criterion of a well-specified asset-pricing model and that it best describes Australian stock returns.

La crise financière de 2008 a mis en exergue l'instabilité financière des banques en identifiant le caractère procyclique du levier bancaire, la sous-capitalisation des banques, et la nécessité de définir une nouvelle régulation bancaire. La dimension internationale des activités bancaires et l'identification des banques globales complètent ce constat. Les banques européennes, par leurs expositions aux marchés financiers américains, sont diversifiées internationalement: une part de leurs actifs et de leurs dettes est libellée en dollar américain. Le taux de change flottant entre le dollar et l'euro introduit un effet de valorisation et un risque de change qui impactent la stabilité bancaire. Cette thèse étudie l'impact de la diversification internationale des bilans bancaires sur la procyclicité du levier, sur la structure du capital, et sur la volatilité de capital. Quatre chapitres combinent des travaux théoriques et empiriques. Le premier chapitre analyse l'impact théorique de la diversification sur la procyclicité du levier. Le chapitre 2 utilise des données bancaires françaises entre 1999 et 2015 et montre un impact positif. Dans le chapitre 3, les mêmes données sont utilisées afin d'estimer l'impact de la diversification sur la structure du capital. L'introduction de cette dimension est déterminante dans le cadre de cette analyse. Enfin, le chapitre 4 élargit la problématique en reliant l'intégration internationale, la diversification et la volatilité du capital. Nous identifions les différentes sources de risque et nous montrons que la banque peut bénéficier d'un régime de change flottant et d'une diversification internationale. / The 2008 financial crisis has rekindled discussions on the financial stability of banks by identifying the procyclical behavior of banking leverage, the lack of capital in banks' balance sheet and the necessity of introducing a new regulatory framework. It has also highlighted the international dimension of banking activities and the identification of global banks. The significant exposure to the US financial markets leads to an international diversification of European global banks where part of their assets and liabilities are denominated in US dollar. The floating exchange rate regime between the US dollar and the euro then implies a foreign exchange risk and a valuation effect that would affect banking stability. The purpose of thesis is to study the impact of international diversification of bank’s balance sheet on leverage procyclicality, capital structure and equity volatility. I develop four chapters combining theoretical and empirical research. The first chapter analyses the theoretical impact of currency diversification on leverage procyclicality. Chapter 2 uses innovative data on banks located in France from 1999 to 2015 and shows that the relationship is positive. In the third chapter, we use our data to estimate the impact of international diversification on capital structure and we show that introducing this new dimension is determinant to the capital structure. Finally, chapter 4 enlarges the analysis to international integration, diversification and equity volatility. I identify all risk channels a bank supports and show that banks can benefit from both floating foreign exchange regime and international diversification.