The role of aerosols and clouds is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in understanding climate change. The primary scientific goal of this thesis is to improve the understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions by applying inverse modeling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Through a set of synthetic tests using a pseudo-adiabatic cloud parcel model, it is shown that a self adaptive MCMC algorithm can efficiently find the correct optimal values of meteorological and aerosol physiochemical parameters for a specified droplet size distribution and determine the global sensitivity of these parameters. For an updraft velocity of 0.3 m s-1, a shift towards an increase in the relative importance of chemistry compared to the accumulation mode number concentration is shown to exist somewhere between marine (~75 cm-3) and rural continental (~450 cm-3) aerosol regimes. Examination of in-situ measurements from the Marine Stratus/Stratocumulus Experiment (MASE II) shows that for air masses with higher number concentrations of accumulation mode (Dp = 60-120 nm) particles (~450 cm-3), an accurate simulation of the measured droplet size distribution requires an accurate representation of the particle chemistry. The chemistry is relatively more important than the accumulation mode particle number concentration, and similar in importance to the particle mean radius. This result is somewhat at odds with current theory that suggests chemistry can be ignored in all except for the most polluted environments. Under anthropogenic influence, we must consider particle chemistry also in marine environments that may be deemed relatively clean. The MCMC algorithm can successfully reproduce the observed marine stratocumulus droplet size distributions. However, optimising towards the broadness of the measured droplet size distribution resulted in a discrepancy between the updraft velocity, and mean radius/geometric standard deviation of the accumulation mode. This suggests that we are missing a dynamical process in the pseudo-adiabatic cloud parcel model. / At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Submitted. Paper 4: Manuscript.

In this study, a computational approach to the solution of an inverse modeling problem is developed to reconstruct unknown material properties of a Li-ion battery. In-situ MRI measurements performed on a layered graphite electrode during charging are used in comparison with Stefan-Maxwell concentrated electrolyte theory, Butler-Volmer reaction kinetics, and multiphase porous electrode theory to explore the overall accuracy of models for Li transport processes in the active material. In particular, the main research goal here is to determine if the original Cahn-Hilliard formulation for phase-separation can be improved upon through extension to a periodic bilayer model (two-layer Cahn-Hilliard). The original model contains a pair of two stable phases at low and high concentrations that produces the ``shrinking core'' behavior for lithiated graphite. The comparative advantage of the periodic bilayer model stems from the capturing of a third stable phase of intermediate concentration as the average between one concentrated layer and one dilute layer. Calibration is done simultaneously on concentration and cell voltage profiles through multi-objective optimization where the accuracy of a model is assessed based on the quantification of agreement with experimental data. The periodic bilayer model is found to improve upon the least-squares error for fitting of concentration profiles by roughly 20%, while the voltage fittings are too similar to be conclusive. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Aujourd’hui, l’un des principaux défis dans l’industrie pétrolière, et particulièrement dans le domaine de l’exploration, est l’exploitation des nouvelles ressources dans des zones structuralement complexes.Nous savons que la géométrie et le glissement le long des failles actives modifie la distribution locale des contraintes. La connaissance du champ de contrainte perturbé actuel est importante pour l’étude des tremblements de Terre, pour la planification de forages ainsi que pour la prédiction de la fracturation induite par l’hydro-fracturation et la prédiction de la réactivation des fractures. Les contraintes perturbées passées, quant à elles sont responsables du développement des fractures naturelles (préexistantes). La détection et la modélisation de celles-ci sont essentielles tant dans le domaine pétrolier (migration et piégeage des fluides) pour une exploitation efficace et à moindre coût des réserves naturelles.Comprendre et quantifier le développement spatial et temporel de ces contraintes a un impact économique non négligeable. L'analyse des paléo-contraintes a été introduite dans un premier temps par Anderson (1905 & 1942) de manière intuitive, puis dans le milieu du siècle dernier, Wallace (1951) et Bott ( 1959) proposèrent les simples postulats que le champ de contrainte est homogène et que la direction du rejet est parallèle à la traction projetée sur le plan de faille. Beaucoup de méthodes d’inversion de contraintes reposent aujourd’hui sur ce principe.Afin d’étudier la validité de l’hypothèse Wallace et Bott, une comparaison avec les vecteurs de glissement générés à partir de modèles numériques (BEM) est effectuée. En testant l’influence de multiples paramètres (géométrie, contraintes au limites du modèle, friction, coefficient de poisson, demi-espace, pression de fluide dans la faille), il est montré que les failles à géométries complexes soumises à certaines contraintes aux limites peuvent engendrer des vecteurs glissements présentant des écarts important avec les la plus grande contraintes cisaillantes résolue sur le plan de faille. A l’inverse, la présence d’une forte friction de glissement permet, dans certaines conditions, de valider l’hypothèse de Wallace et Bott. On s’attache ensuite à comparer les résultats des inversions de contraintes basées sur l’hypothèse de Wallace et Bott (appelé méthode d’inversion classique de contraintes) avec une méthode géomécanique. Pour cela, une faille à géométrie complexe est utilisée dans une étude de sensibilité (contraintes aux limites, friction, échantillonnage) permettant d’analyser l’incertitude des résultats des deux méthodes d’inversion. Cette analyse est ensuite confrontée à l’étude d’un cas de terrain, montrant les avantages et inconvénients des méthodes d’inversions classiques de contraintes.Un des principaux défis de l’industrie pétrolière est l’exploitation des ressources des zones structuralement complexes telles que les réservoirs naturellement fracturés. Connaitre l’état de contraintes hétérogène passé permet d’optimiser la modélisation de ces fractures naturelles. Etant donné que les glissements sur les failles sont difficiles à observer dans les réservoirs pétroliers, les données de d’orientation de fractures (joints, failles, stylolites) sont naturellement prises en compte lors de l’inversion des contraintes. On montre, en utilisant divers exemples de terrain et d’industrie, que dans de tels cas, l’utilisation d’inversions basée sur la mécanique est beaucoup plus appropriée. Cependant, il est parfois difficile de déterminer le type cinématique de fracture observée le long des puits, et très souvent, les zones étudiées ont subi une tectonique polyphasée. La dernière partie vise donc à résoudre le problème des données de types cinématiques non identifiables (joints, failles, stylolites…) et étend parallèlement l’inversion mécanique des contraintes à la séparation de phases tectoniques. / Today, one of the main challenges in the oil industry, especially during the exploration phase, is the exploitation of new resources in structurally complex areas such as naturally fractured reservoirs, salt diapirs, mountain ranges, and unconventional reservoirs.We know that the geometry and sliding along active faults modifies the local stress distribution. Knowing the present day perturbed stress field is important for the study of earthquakes, for the planning of the borehole drilling and stability as well as for the prediction of fractures induced by hydro-fracturing and reactivation of natural fractures. In the other side, perturbed paleostress are responsible for the development of (pre-existing) natural fractures. The detection and modeling of the latter, are essential both in the oil industry (migration and trapping of fluids) for a cost efficient recovery of natural reserves.Understanding and quantifying the spatial and temporal development of the stress distribution has a significant economic and environmental impact. The analysis of paleo-constraints was intuitively introduced first by Anderson (1905 & 1942), then in the middle of the last century, Wallace (1951) and Bott (1959) proposed the simple hypothesis that (i) The stress field is homogeneous in space and constant in time, and that (ii) the slip direction is parallel to the traction projected on the fault plane which gives the direction of the shear stress. Many stress inversion methods are based on this hypothesis while recent studies raise doubts as to their compatibility with rock mechanics.In order to investigate the validity of the Wallace and Bott hypothesis, a comparison with vectors of slip generated with numerical models (BEM) is performed. By testing the influence of multiple parameters (geometry, boundary conditions, friction, Poisson’s coefficient , half-space, fault fluid pressure), it is shown that the complex geometry faults subject to specific boundary conditions can yield slip vectors with significant discrepancies with the maximum shear stress resolved on the fault plane. Conversely, the presence of a high sliding friction, allows under certain conditions, to validate the hypothesis of Wallace and Bott.We then focus on the task to compare the results of stress inversions based on the assumption of Wallace and Bott (called classical stress inversion methods) to a geomechanical method. For this, a complex fault geometry is used in a sensitivity analysis (boundary conditions, friction, sampling) to evaluate the uncertainty of the results of the two inversion methods. This analysis is then compared to a case study, Chimney Rock (Utah, USA), showing the advantages and disadvantages of the classical stress inversion methods.One of the main challenges of the oil industry is the exploitation of resource in structurally complex oil fields such as naturally fractured reservoirs. Knowing the heterogeneous paleostress allows to optimize the modeling of these natural fractures. Since slip on faults is hardly observed in petroleum reservoirs, fracture orientation data (joints, faults, stylolites) are naturally taken into account during the inversion of stresses. It is shown, using various field and industry examples, that in such cases the use of mechanical stress inversions is much more appropriate.However, it is sometimes difficult to determine the fracture kinematics observed along wellbores, and very often the studied regions underwent multiple tectonic phases. The final section aims to address the problem of data with unknown kinematic (joints, faults, stylolites ...) and expends the mechanical stress inversion to the separation of tectonic phases.

Ce travail de recherche vise à caractériser les propriétés hydrodynamiques des sols des Cévennes, une zone de moyenne montagne du sud de la France connue pour être sujette à des crues à cinétique rapide, appelées « crues éclair ». Il s'agit donc de déterminer les paramètres relatifs à la conductivité hydraulique et à la rétention en eau du modèle de Mualem-van Genuchten, leur variabilité spatiale à l'échelle du versant ou du petit bassin, et les facteurs qui expliquent cette variabilité spatiale. Il s'agit également d'évaluer la perméabilité du sous-sol constitué d'une roche plus ou moins altérée, et d'en déduire des informations sur les processus de saturation des sols pouvant être à l'origine de ruissellement.Les propriétés hydrodynamiques des sols et du sous-sol ont été estimées par modélisation inverse de la teneur en eau sols, à partir d'une station pilote sur le site de Sumène et d'un réseau de 50 stations de mesure répartis sur 4 versants granitiques (site de Valescure) et 2 versants schisteux (site de Tourgueille). La station pilote comprend 3 sondes de mesure installées à 20, 40, 60 cm de profondeur, et les stations installées sur les versants comprennent chacune 2 sondes de mesure installées à des profondeurs variables allant de 15 à 45 cm. Les teneurs en eau du sol ainsi que les précipitations ont été mesurées en continu au pas de temps 15 min sur les différents sites. La procédure de modélisation inverse est basée sur l'algorithme génétique multi-objectif NSGA-II. Cette procédure a été appliquée pour chaque station, en considérant que le sol d'épaisseur variable constitué de la superposition de 2 horizons, surmontant un troisième horizon figurant la roche altérée sous-jacente. Au total, quinze paramètres doivent être calibrés pour chaque station, et sont estimés à partir de périodes sélectionnées correspondant aux épisodes de pluie les plus importants. Les processus d'évapotranspiration ont été considérés comme négligeables au cours de ces épisodes. L'analyse des propriétés de rétention et de conductivité obtenues a mis en évidence la très forte conductivité hydraulique des sols étudiés, de l'ordre de 1000 à 2000 mm/h, et leur faible rétention en eau. Les teneurs en eau à saturation estimées s'échelonnent de 0.30 à 0.60 cm3.cm-3, traduisant une grande hétérogénéité locale. On retrouve cette forte variabilité pour l'estimation des profondeurs de sol qui varient de 31 à 120 cm. Pour l'horizon représentant le sous-sol, les perméabilités sont très contrastées, avec des valeurs de conductivités hydrauliques variant de quelques unités à plus d'une centaine de mm/h. Les stations présentant les sols les moins profondes et des sous-sols moins perméables génèrent des zones saturées qui se développent à la base du profil de sol, comme ça a été observé et simulé lors des épisodes pluvieux les plus intenses. Si les propriétés des sols apparaissent très variables d'une station à une autre et d'un versant à un autre, les résultats n'ont pas montré d'organisation particulière de cette variabilité spatiale. La position de la station sur le versant n'apparaît pas être déterminante pour les porosités, les profondeurs, les perméabilités et les rétentions en eau des sols ; les distributions de ces propriétés, calculées à l'échelle des différents versants, ne semblent pas reliées aux grands traits du paysage : géologie, orientation, végétation. / This research work aims to characterize soil hydrodynamic properties of the Cévennes area, a low mountain region known to be prone to flash floods. We thus chose to estimate hydraulic conductivity and water retention properties of the Mualem –van Genuchten model and their spatial variability at the hillslope scale and between multiple hillslope profiles. The objectives are also to evaluate the weathered bedrock permeability, and consequently to enhance our understanding of the soil saturation processes.The soil and bedrock hydrodynamic properties were estimated by inverse modelling of soil moisture from a pilot station and a network of 50 stations distributed on 4 granitic hillslope and 2 schist hillslope. The pilot station was instrumented with 3 soil moisture sensors located at 20, 40 and 60 cm deep whereas the hillslope stations were instrumented with 2 soil moisture sensors located variably from 15 to 45 cm deep. Both soil moisture and precipitation were recorded with a 15 min time step for every station. The inverse modelling procedure is based on the multi-objective genetic algorithm NSGA-II. This procedure was used for every station considering a variably deep soil composed by 2 layers surmounting a 100 cm deep third layer representing the weathered bedrock. Fifteen parameters were calibrated for every station, and were estimated from small selected rainfall periods of 1 to 15 days corresponding to the major rainfall events during the monitoring period. Evapotranspiration has been considered as negligible during those events. The analysis of those retention and conductivity properties shows a very important hydraulic conductivity for the studied soils, ranging from 1000 to 2000 mm/h, and their low retention capacity. The soil saturated water content varies from 0.30 to 0.60 cm3.cm-3, which is a consequence of the important soil heterogeneity at the hillslope scale. We also find that heterogeneity on the estimation of soil depth which varies from 31 to 120 cm. For the weathered bedrock layer, we also found contrasted permeability varying from a few units to a hundred of mm/h. Stations with the shallowest soils and the less permeable bedrock presenting a saturation process at the soil/bedrock contact, as monitored and simulated during the most intense rainfalls. If the estimated soil hydrodynamic properties exhibit important variations at the hillslope scale from a station to another, results showed no specific spatial organization of this variability. The station's position on the hillslope is not decisive to estimate saturated soil moisture, soil depth, soil permeability or water retention capacity. The distribution of those properties, calculated for the 6 studied hillslope is not either correlated to the landscape general characteristic: geology, orientation, land cover.

Les cycles océaniques du carbone et des principaux nutriments sont mal connus car ils sont affectés par de nombreux puits et sources physiques, chimiques ou biologiques difficiles à estimer par des mesures directes. Une manière de mieux contraindre ces processus importants est d’utiliser l’information contenue dans des traceurs plus simples : les proxies. Le radium 228 (228Ra), émis par les plateaux continentaux, est utilisé comme proxy des flux d’eau et d’éléments minéraux de la côte vers l’océan ouvert. Il permet en particulier d’estimer les flux d’eau souterraine ou SGDs (Submarine Groundwater Discharge). Le thorium 234(234Th), insoluble, permet quant à lui de contraindre la dynamique des particules par lesquelles il est adsorbé. Il est régulièrement utilisé pour estimer la pompe biologique du carbone (PBC), c’est-à-dire le flux de carbone de la surface vers l’océan profond.Au cours de cette thèse, un modèle numérique à une résolution de 2° a été construit pour chacun de ces deux radio-isotopes, en s’appuyant sur la circulation du modèle NEMO-OPA et les champs de particules du modèle PISCES. Plusieurs paramètres inconnus des modèles ont été contraints par des observations dans le cadre d’une méthode inverse.La modélisation inverse du 228Ra a permis d’estimer les flux de 228Ra venant de 38 régions côtières. En revanche, l’estimation des SGDs est imprécise, car les SGDs sont difficiles à distinguer d’une autre source de 228Ra: la diffusion par les sédiments.La modélisation inverse du 234Th a permis d’estimer les coefficients de partage du 234Th, qui représentent l’affinité de différents types de particules pour cet isotope. Elle a aussi permis d’estimer les erreurs associées à quelques simplifications courantes dans les études de la PBC fondées sur le 234Th. / The oceanic cycles of carbon and the main nutrients are poorly known since they are affected by many physical, chemical or biological sources and sinks that are difficult to estimate by direct measurements.One way to better constrain these important processes is to use the information contained in more simple tracers called "proxies". As radium 228 (228Ra) flows from the continental shelves, it is used as a proxy of water and mineral elements fluxes from the coast to the open ocean. In particular, it is often used to estimate the SGD (Submarine Groundwater Discharge). For its part, thorium 234 (234Th), an insoluble radio-isotope, is used to constrain the dynamics of the solid particles onto which it is adsorbed. The carbon flux from the surface to the deep ocean, called "biological carbon pump" (BCP), is often estimated by a 234Th-based method.During this PhD, a numerical model with a resolution of 2°, based on the circulation of the NEMO-OPA model and the particle fields of the PISCES model, was built for each of the two radioisotopes.Several unknown model parameters were constrained by observations using an inverse technique.The inverse modeling of 228Ra was used to constrain 228Ra fluxes from 38 coastal regions.However, the SGD fluxes are poorly constrained by this method, because SGD can be confused with another source of 228Ra: diffusion from sediments.The inverse modeling of 234Th produced estimates of partition coefficients, representing the affinity of different particle types for this isotope. It was also used to estimate the errors associated with some common simplifications made in 234Th-based BCP studies.

Orientador: Marco Lucio Bittencourt / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-09T12:36:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Martins_DanielLeonardo_M.pdf: 3435063 bytes, checksum: 5e1595f9983245a24712a596e4b1f0a1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia de otimização de forma aplicada a estruturas submetidas a cargas de impacto, de modo a aumentar sua capacidade de absorção de energia de impacto. Para isso, é necessário conhecer as propriedades mecânicas dos materiais empregados em tais estruturas, as quais são obtidas através de uma metodologia de abordagem dupla experimental- otimização. São obtidos os parâmetros ótimos das leis constitutivas de Cowper-Symonds e Johnson-Cook para materiais sensíveis à taxa de deformação que melhor se ajustam aos respectivos dados experimentais. Finalmente, esses parâmetros são utilizados na análise de uma estrutura complexa, a qual tem sua capacidade de absorção de energia de impacto melhorada utilizando a Metodologia de Resposta da Superfície / Abstract: This work presents a shape optimization methodology applied to structures submitted to impact loads in order to improve their crashworthiness. To this end, it is necessary to know the structural material properties, which were obtained using a dual experimental-optimization methodology. Optimum parameters are obtained for the Cowper-Symonds and Johnson-Cook strain rate sensitive constitutive laws which best fit the material experimental data. These parameters were then used in the analysis of a complex structure, which is crashworthy optimized using a Response Surface Methodology / Mestrado / Mecanica dos Sólidos e Projeto Mecanico / Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Never before has the car industry been as challenging, interesting, and demanding as it is today. New and advanced techniques are being continuously introduced, which has led to increasing competition in an almost ever-expanding car market. As the pace and complexity heightens in the car market, manufacturing processes must advance at an equal speed. An important manufacturing process within the automotive industry, and the focus of this thesis, is sheet metal forming (SMF). Sheet metal forming is used to create door panels, structural beams, and trunk lids, among other parts, by forming sheets of metal in press lines with stamping dies. The SMF process has been simulated for the past couple of decades with finite element (FE) simulations, whereby one can predict factors such as shape, strains, thickness, springback, risk of failure, and wrinkles. A factor that most SMF simulations do not currently include is the die and press elasticity. This factor is handled manually during the die tryout phase, which is often long and expensive. The importance of accurately representing press and die elasticity in SMF simulations is the focus of this research project. The research objective is to achieve virtual tryout and improved production support through SMF simulations that consider elastic die and press deformations. Loading a die with production forces and including the deformations in SMF simulations achieves a reliable result. It is impossible to achieve accurate simulation results without including the die deformations. This thesis also describes numerical methods for optimizing and compensating tool surfaces against press and die deformations. In order for these compensations to be valid, it is imperative to accurately represent dies and presses. A method of measuring and inverse modeling the elasticity of a press table has been developed and is based on digital image correlation (DIC) measurements and structural optimization with FE software. Optimization, structural analysis, and SMF simulations together with experimental measurements have immense potential to improve simulation results and significantly reduce the lead time of stamping dies. Last but not least, improved production support and die design are other areas that can benefit from these tools. / Aldrig tidigare har bilindustrin varit så utmanande, intressant och spännande som idag. Ny och avancerad teknik introduceras i en allt snabbare takt vilket leder till ständigt ökande konkurrens på en, nästan ständigt, ökande bilmarknad. Den ständigt ökande komplexiteten ställer även krav på tillverkningsprocesserna. En viktig process, som denna licentiatuppsats fokuserar på, är pressning av plåt. Tillverkningstekniken används för att forma plåtar till dörrpaneler, strukturbalkar, motorhuvar, etc. Plåtar formas med hjälp av pressverktyg monterade i plåtformningspressar. Plåtformningsprocessen simuleras sedan ett par decennium tillbaka med Finita Element (FE) simuleringar. Man kan på så sätt prediktera form, töjningar, tjocklek, återfjädring, rynkor, risk för försträckning och sprickor m.m. En faktor som för tillfället inte inkluderas i näst intill alla plåtformningssimuleringar är elastiska press- och verktygsdeformationer. Detta hanteras istället manuellt under, den oftast långa och dyra, inprovningsfasen. Detta projekt har visat på vikten av att representera press och verktygsdeformationer i plåtformningssimuleringar. Detta demonstreras genom en analys av ett verkligt pressverktyg som belastas med produktionskrafter. Det är inte möjligt att uppnå bra simuleringsresultat utan att inkludera verktygsdeformationer i simuleringsmodellen. Uppsatsen beskriver även numeriska metoder för att optimera och kompensera verktygsytor mot press och verktygsdeformationer. För att dessa kompenseringar ska stämma är det viktigt att man representerar både verktyg och press på ett korrekt sätt. Förslag på en metod för att mäta och inversmodellera pressdeformationer har utvecklats, metoden är baserad på mätningar med DIC-systemet ARAMIS och optimering i FE-mjukvaror. Optimering, strukturanalys, och plåtformningsanalys tillsammans med experimentella mätningar har en stor potential att förbättra plåtformningssimuleringar samt reducera ledtiden för pressverktyg. Sist men inte minst, andra positiva effekter är en enklare och smidigare konstruktionsprocess och förbättrad produktionssupport.

No description available.

Vessels constructed in electrically conductive materials give rise to frequency-dependent, induced magnetic fields when waves of water cause them to roll in the Earth's magnetic field. These fields, typically referred to as roll-induced magnetic vortex fields, are a component of the ship's overall signature, where signature refers to measurable quantities which can reveal or identify objects. It is crucial for military platforms to keep the signature low and thereby increase the possibilities of operation. For magnetic signatures, this is done through strategic design and construction of the platform or by using magnetic silencing systems. The signature is then decreased to minimize the risk of detection from naval mines and marine detection systems.  This report covers the initial research on the subject of an inverse source model for roll induced magnetic fields. By limiting the analysis to two basic objects and applying a time variant magnetic field to them, we induce a magnetic field which we then model. The inverse modeling is done using magnetic dipoles as sources which are placed around the area of the object. The parameters of the model are then found by applying a least squares algorithm coupled with Tikhonov regularization. The focus of this report is the configuration of this setup in terms of measurements and sources, as well as finding a proper regularization parameter. Since the applied magnetic field is dependent on the roll frequency, also the inverse model depends on a frequency parameter in addition to the geometry and material of the object. The objects here studied are of two simple geometries, a rectangular block and a hollow cylinder. Both objects are constructed in an aluminum alloy with well known material parameters. Measurement data is gathered using a numerical solver utilizing the finite element method for solving the partial differential equations. The numerical measurement data is compared to physical measurements as well. The physical measurement data is gathered by placing the objects in a Helmholtz-cage which is used to apply a homogeneous time variant magnetic field upon them. The project was carried out at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) at the department of underwater research.

[pt] A análise de fluxo de água sob condição transiente não saturada requer o conhecimento das propriedades hidráulicas do solo. Essas relações constitutivas, denominadas curva característica e função de condutividade hidráulica, são descritas através de modelos empíricos que geralmente possuem vários parâmetros que devem ser calibrados com relação a dados coletados. Muitos dos parâmetros nos modelos constitutivos não podem ser medidos diretamente em campo ou laboratório, mas somente podem ser inferidos de forma significativa a partir de dados coletados e da modelagem inversa. Para obter os parâmetros do solo com a análise inversa, um algoritmo de otimização de busca local ou global pode ser aplicado. As otimizações globais são mais capazes de encontrar parâmetros ótimos, no entanto, a solução direta, por meio da modelagem numérica é computacionalmente custosa. Portanto, soluções analíticas (modelo substituto) podem superar essa falha acelerando o processo de otimização. Nesta dissertação, apresentamos a Regressão Polinomial Evolucionária (EPR) como uma ferramenta para desenvolver modelos substitutos do fluxo não saturado. Um rico conjunto de dados de parâmetros hidráulicos do solo é usado para calibrar o nosso modelo, e dados do mundo real são utilizados para validar nossa metodologia. Nossos resultados demonstram que o modelo da EPR prevê com precisão os dados de carga de pressão. As simulações do modelo se mostram concordantes com as simulações do programa Hydrus. / [en] Water flow analyses under transient soil hydraulic conditions require knowledge of the soil hydraulic properties. These constitutive relationships, named soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) and hydraulic conductivity function (HCF) are described through empirical models which generally have several parameters that must be calibrated against collected data. Many of the parameters in SWCC and HCF models cannot be directly measured in field or laboratory but can only be meaningfully inferred from collected data and inverse modeling. In order to obtain the soil parameters with the inverse process, a local or global optimization algorithm may be applied. Global optimizations are more capable of fiding optimum parameters, however the direct solution through numerical modeling are time consuming. Therefore, analytical solutions (surrogate models) may overcome this shortcomming by accelerating the optimization process. In this work we introduce Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR) as a tool to develop surrogate models of the physically-based unsaturated flow. A rich dataset of soil hydraulic parameters is used to calibrate our surrogate model, and real-world data are then utilized to validate our methodology. Our results demonstrate that the EPR model predicts accurately the observed pressure head data. The model simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the Hydrus software package.