Dissertação (mestrado) - Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná, Curitiba, 2009 / Bibliografia: f. 94-97 / O planejamento e abordagens de apoio à tomada de decisão podem ter a previsão como um dos seus subsídios, uma vez que fornece informações que possibilitam o planejamento com antecedência e, conseqüentemente, permite que os recursos produtivos estejam disp / The planning and approaches to support decision-making can be forecasting as one of its subsidies, as it provides information that enable the planning in advance and hence allows productive resources that are available in quantity, time and quality. Assis

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:08:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 1993-05-14T00:00:00Z / Este trabalho compara procedimentos de previsão de preços de commodities, utilizados de maneira empírica pelos analistas de mercado, com os procedimentos fornecidos pela Análise de Séries Temporais. Aplicamos os métodos de previsão utilizando as Médias Móveis, os métodos baseados em Alisamentos exponenciais e principalmente os modelos ARIMA de Box-Jenkins. Estes últimos são, em geral, generalizações dos primeiros, com a vantagem de utilizar os instrumentos estatísticos de medidas das incertezas, como o desvio-padrão e os intervalos de confiança para as previsões.

Submitted by Jaqueline Duarte (1157279@mackenzie.br) on 2018-04-25T22:04:35Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Sheila Darcy Antonio Rodrigues.pdf: 5602212 bytes, checksum: c59de0a2c11682e90be6d1453a6f1116 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eliana Barboza (eliana.silva1@mackenzie.br) on 2018-04-26T12:20:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Sheila Darcy Antonio Rodrigues.pdf: 5602212 bytes, checksum: c59de0a2c11682e90be6d1453a6f1116 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-26T12:20:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Sheila Darcy Antonio Rodrigues.pdf: 5602212 bytes, checksum: c59de0a2c11682e90be6d1453a6f1116 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-06 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / When we thinking about the production of the contemporary literature we can notice that a considerable part of the new releases, mainly those coming from the Unites States of America market, are part of great projects of the entertainment industry. Some of these projects may be called according to what was proposed by the researcher Henry Jenkins of transmedia storytelling and they are those types in which it is expanded the way of telling a story for the use of the most different types of existing media. One of the most successful cases of this kind of transmedia storytelling, which may even be considered a paradigm for this type of narrative is the case of Star Wars saga. Started in the year of 1976 with the release of Star Wars: from the adventures of Luke Skywalker, this saga have been developed for years and still is in the active. It has turned into a complex universe of films, cartoons, comics, ga mes and countless books that help to narrate the most diverses adventures, that happen in a galaxy, far, far away. Considering that the today revenue of the Star Wars saga is around fourty billion dollars and that of this amount, approximately, three billion dollars had came from the commercialization of books, it becomes interesting and necessary to investigate and to understand why there is the interest in a literature production, linked to this type of narrative, as well as to seek the knowledge of how to think about projects that are part of the entertainment industry, which encompass different media, and among them the literary media and that can become a success of audience. / Ao se pensar sobre produção literária contemporânea, pode-se observar que uma considerável parcela dos novos lançamentos, principalmente dos provenientes do mercado norte americano, fazem parte de grandes projetos da indústria do entretenimento. Alguns desses projetos podem ser denominados, de acordo com o proposto pelo pesquisador Henry Jenkins, de narrativas transmidiáticas (transmedia storytelling) e eles são aqueles nos quais se busca expandir a forma de se contar uma história para a utilização dos mais distintos tipos de mídias existentes. Um dos casos de maior sucesso desse tipo de narrativa transmidiática, que pode, até mesmo, ser considerado um paradigma para esse tipo de narrativa, é o da saga Star Wars. Iniciada em 1976 com o lançamento do livro Star Wars: from the adventures of Luke Skywalker, essa saga, desenvolvida durante anos e ainda na ativa, se transformou em um complexo universo do qual fazem parte filmes, desenhos animados, histórias em quadrinho, jogos e inúmeros livros que ajudam a narrar as mais diversas aventuras, que se passam em uma galáxia tão, tão distante. Considerando-se que hoje o faturamento da saga Star Wars se encontre em torno de quarenta bilhões de dólares e que deste montante quase três bilhões de dólares são provenientes da comercialização de livros, torna-se interessante e necessário que se busque pesquisar e compreender o porquê do interesse por uma produção de literatura, atrelada a esse tipo de narrativa, bem como buscar o conhecimento de como se pensar em projetos para a indústria do entretenimento, que englobem distintas mídias, e dentre elas a literária e que possam se converter em sucesso de público.

This thesis offers a comprehensive view of coffee trading on commodity markets. To describe the behavior of prices and their volatility, ARCH and GARCH models are used. These models analyse coffee prices of selected regions in Ethiopia, the birth place of coffee. The thesis connects the characteristics of soft commodity with current knowledge of financial econometrics. It also describes the effects of changes in exchange rates and oil prices on the price of coffee. Price volatility is examined with regard to deregulation and reforms on this market within the last three decades. Developments in the developing world caused a significant need for the progression and identification with the hedging instruments. These are closely linked to the globalized market with coffee, so it is conversely possible to absorb the shocks on small growers, who are significantly impacted by the globalized world.

The unemployment is one of the main economic indicators. Thanks to time series analysis and predicting values, we can take measures of eliminating negative aspects of the unemployment in the economy. This thesis is concentrated on connection between theory of unemployment with time series analysis of unemployment rate, especially based on Box-Jenkins methodology.

This master thesis is divided into two parts. First part focuses on production and consumption of electricity in the Czech republic, describing sources of the production and their progress since 1990, considering also the main electricity consumers. The end of the first part focuses on the Box-Jenkins methodology, time series of electricity consumption between 1981 and 2008 are created as well as forecasted up to 2011. The second part of this thesis describes the cluster analysis. This is used for finding similarities of the 27 states of the European Union. Cluster analysis is applied for years 1990 and 2007, for both electric power production and electric power consumption.

The aim of this finish work is an analysis of selected demographic time series and calculation of their predictions. Concretely, it deals with time series of annual crude birth rate, crude death rate, and the average age of mothers at first birth, all for the time period of 1960-2013. First, demographic terms used further in the work are defined. There is also a theoretical part describing the statistical methods used, specifically the methodology of time series from authors Box-Jenkins. Developement of each time serie is evaluated socio-demographically and the procedure of selecting the most appropriate interpolation model and calculation of predictions derived from it are described. There is also description of a process of selecting a suitable model based on the extrapolation method of predictions with Rolling Origin, construction of predictions derived from it and their comparison with the most suitable interpolation model. At the end there is a comparison of the time series of crude birth rate between the Czech Republic and selected developed country (Sweden), which brings interesting results.

Indicators of child mortality in the lowest age reflect the status of health care and maturity of the country. The most frequent indicator in this area is the infant mortality rate. This thesis is focused on evaluation of development of infant, neonatal and early neonatal rate in the European union between 1960 and 2010 from the perspective of time series, aplication of Box-Jenkins methodology and assessment of the relation between infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth.

This thesis is focused on two demographic processes -- nuptiality and divorce rate. The goal of this thesis is to analyze past, present and future development of nuptiality and divorce rate in Czech Republic and to draw a comparison between this development and the development in selected countries of European Union. The evaluation of the past and present development is made by using selected indicators of nuptiality and divorce rate. The forecast of the future development is obtained by using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The comparison of nuptiality and divorce rate in Czech Republic and in selected countries of European Union (Italy, Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden) is to be found in the last chapter of this thesis.

The aim of this work is a statistical analysis of expenditures of households on culture, description of current economical situation in the field of cinematography, characteristics of a cinemagoer and a projection of future developmental tendencies of cinemas. The first two chapters are dedicated to a description of the current state of the Czech cinematography and information about the evolution of the Czech film production. The third theoretical part describes basic statistical methods used in the practical part of this work. The fourth part is focused on a film viewer -cinemagoer using MML-TGI method and it also includes analysis of the dependence of expenditures of households for culture on the cinema ticket price. The fifth part is dedicated to a projection of the future development of the attendance and receipts of cinemas. The final chapter deals with the state of European cinematography.