Opus cui titulus est "Carthago Indiarum obsessa sed non expugnata" est carmen divulgatum sine nomine auctoris saeculo duodevicesimo ad celebrandam vic- toriam quam Hispani a Britannis Carthagenae Indiarum anno 1741 in bello auris illius Ienkins (vulgo, the War of Jenkins’ Ear) reportaverunt. In hac thesi tractantur modo satis compendiario res gestae huius proelii quo melius lectores carmen ipsum possint intellegere. Necnon hic inveniuntur ea quae spectant ad huius opusculi genus, indolem et momentum litterarium. Postremo, praebetur hic editio critica, paraphra- sis Latina, commentarius in hoc carmen scriptus. Ex hoc carmine potest conspici quomodo litterarum Latinarum patrimonium pertineat ad omnes aetates, ad omnes gentes, ad omnes patrias. The work Carthago Indiarum obsessa, sed non expugnata ("Cartagena de Indias, Assailed but not Captured") is an eighteenth century anonymous poem that celebrates the Spanish victory over the English at Cartagena de Indias during the War of Jenkins’ Ear in 1741. This thesis presents a summary of the battle in order to contextualize the significance of the poem. It further presents a literary analysis of the poem’s genre, characteristics, and literary importance, as well as a critical edi-tion, a paraphrase in Latin prose, and a commentary. From analyzing this poem, one can see some ways in which the Latin literary patrimony brought from the ancients pertains to all ages, peoples, and nations.

The output of the National economy of the Czech Republic is conditioned by a sum of important factors. There are sectors, which increased power during the last two decades, mainly due to expansion of modern technologies and knowledge workers. One of this is Construction. Construction is specific to its position in the economy and in particular is characterized by the greatest seasonality ever. However, this is not a problem for statistical analysis, rather a benefit. Modern approaches allow us to analyze seasonal fluctuations. From selected data we are able to construct evolutionary forecasts. The work will be performed for the most important indicators in the Czech Construction. The outcome of the paper will be conditional forecasts of these indicators. It will also make analyze of the relationship between these indicators and other variables that might affected it. The work is practical application of stochastic modeling approach by Box and Jenkins, augmented by more modern approaches, such as verification of Granger causality and co-integration and testing of seasonal unit roots by Hylleberg et al.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:40:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA DE SOUSA.pdf: 965882 bytes, checksum: a3647999f994441f4537855527b52292 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-09 / The objective of this study was to compare statistical methods and artificial intelligence to the problem of time series forecasting using Holt-Winters, Box-Jenkins and the Elman neural network. The models were used to predict one step ahead of the price of ethanol in the state of Goias and compared using measures of specific errors. At the end, the results indicated that all three techniques were competitive in terms of predicting one step ahead especially the statistical models appeared to be the most suitable methods in terms of balance between performance and complexity. / O objetivo deste trabalho foi comparar os métodos de estatística e de inteligência artificial para o problema da previsão de séries temporais através de Holt-Winters, Box- Jenkins e a rede neural de Elman. Os modelos foram utilizados para previsão um passo a frente dos preços do etanol no estado de Goiás e comparados através medidas de erros específicas. Ao final, os resultados indicaram que todos os métodos se mostraram competitivos em termos de predição um passo à frente, destacando-se os modelos estatísticos como os mais adequados em termos de parcimônia entre desempenho e complexidade.

O padrão ISO 14001 vem apresentando crescente importância para a gestão ambiental nas organizações em todo o mundo. Estudar e prever o comportamento do número de certificações nos próximos anos é uma estratégia para o planejamento e gestão organizacional. O continente americano é uma importante região com relação à expansão da ISO 14001. Entretanto poucos estudos relacionados à difusão da norma foram realizados com o foco nos países do continente. Pelo exposto, o trabalho teve o objetivo de caracterizar a difusão da norma ISO 14001 nos países e setores do continente americano e ajustar modelos de previsão para o número de certificações. Em nível de países, o estudo foi realizado com os dados do número de certificados ISO 14001 nos 13 países com o maior número de certificações entre os anos de 1996 a 2014. A análise da ISO 14001 nos países foi realizada por meio das curvas de evolução da ISO 14001. O comportamento da norma em nível de setores foi analisado utilizando dados dos anos de 1999-2014. A relação entre o número de certificações ISO 14001 e ISO 9001 para países e setores foi avaliada por análise gráfica. No ajuste dos modelos de previsão foi aplicada a metodologia de Box & Jenkins para as séries anuais de dados dos 13 países. Os resultados da caracterização mostraram que a difusão vem ocorrendo de forma heterogênea no continente. O interesse das organizações em certificar varia entre países, dependendo de fatores internos. Em nível de setor, as certificações parecem estar distribuídas entre diversos setores nos países. A disparidade do número de certificações ISO 14001 em relação à ISO 9001 está se reduzindo ao longo do tempo em países e nos setores. Os modelos ARIMA ajustados para as séries ISO 14001 indicaram tendência de crescimento no número de certificações no continente americano e no Brasil, Colômbia, Estados Unidos e México. Chile e Argentina teriam tendência de redução no número de novos certificados. Esses resultados propõem que os países que possuem condições de implantar a ISO 14001 devem permanecer interessados nos próximos anos. As informações obtidas nesse trabalho podem ser úteis para orientar as estratégias de planejamento de organismos certificadores e a gestão de negócios / The ISO 14001 standard has been showing increasing importance for environmental management in organizations worldwide. To study and predict the behavior of the number of certifications in coming years is a strategy for planning and organizational management. The Americas is an important region in relation to the expansion of ISO 14001. However few studies related to the dissemination of the standard were carried out with the focus on the continent. Accordingly, this work aimed to characterize the diffusion of ISO 14001 standard in the countries and sectors in the Americas and adjust predictive models for the number of certifications. At the country level, the study was conducted with the number data of the ISO 14001 certificate in the 13 countries with the largest number of certifications between the years of 1996 to 2014. The ISO 14001 analysis was carried out in the countries through the evolution curves of the ISO 14001. The behavior of the standard at level of sectors was analyzed using data from the years of 1999 to 2014. The relationship between the number of ISO 14001 and ISO 9001 certifications for countries and sectors was evaluated by graphical analysis. In adjusting of the forecast models were applied the Box & Jenkins methodology for the annual series data from 13 countries. The results of the characterization showed that the diffusion is heterogeneously on the continent. The interest of organizations to certify varies between countries depending on internal factors. At the sector level, the certifications appear to be distributed among various sectors in the countries. The disparity between the number of ISO 14001 certifications in relation to ISO 9001 is being reduced over time in countries and sectors. The ARIMA models adjusted to the ISO 14001 series showed a growth trend in the number of certifications in the Americas and in Brazil, Colombia, United States and Mexico. Chile and Argentina have downward trend in the number of new certificates. These results suggest that countries that have conditions to implement the ISO 14001 should remain interested in coming years. The information obtained in this work can be useful to guide the planning strategies of certification bodies and business management. / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES

A computer model simulating the electrical activity of muscles of the upper arm during elbow motion is presented. The output of the model is an Electromyographic (EMG) signal. System identification is performed on the EMG signals using autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modelling. The calculated ARMA coefficients are then used as the feature set for pattern recognition. Pattern recognition is performed on the EMG signals to attempt to identify which of four possible motions is producing the signal. The results of pattern recognition are compared with results from pattern recognition of real EMG signals. The model is shown to be useful in predicting general trends found in the real data, but is not robust enough to predict accurate quantitative results. Simplifying assumptions about the filtering effects of body tissue, and about the size and position of muscles, are conjectured to be the most likely reasons the model is not quantitatively accurate. / Graduation date: 1992

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Mathematics

The aim of this study was to investigate in what way content marketing can be understood through podcasts as an alternative marketing tool. The material which the study was based on is Ölpodden, a podcast initiated by Carlsberg Sweden. The study intended to shed light on the interdiscursivity that emerges when brands are communicated through podcasts. Another aim was to understand how relationships and identities are constructed through the podcast by examining its intended audience. In order to achieve this a critical discourse analysis was used as both underlining theory and comprehensive method. The critical discourse analysis was also supplemented with two theorists witch highlights the audience’s construction of identity. The consumer's thoughts on Ölpodden was of importance to illustrate the convergence culture and the consumption of the podcast. Qualitative interviews were therefore used as a supplement to the critical discourse analysis. The purpose for the study was to contribute to an increased understanding of content marketing and a deeper knowledge of the communicative strategies it is based on. This purpose led to two main research questions containing two subquestions each. The first main question and subqueries were to answer on: How the discourse in Ölpodden could be understood and problematized in relation to convergence, commercialization and consumption culture, which the intended audience are and how groups and identities are created through the discourse. The other main question and subqueries were to answer on: How the discourse could be understood and problematized from a user perspective, in what way the discourse has impact on the listeners subjectivity and objectivity and how the recipients statements answers to a convergence culture. The result of the study indicates that the interdiscursivity in Ölpodden contains an entertainment discourse, a information discourse and a promotional discourse. Through these discourses the podcast aims to give beer a higher status in society. The podcast also creates an identity which the listener is expected to want to fit into. In the quest to fit into this identity individual's consumption patterns can change. Which ultimately would lead to increased gain for large concerns such as Carlsberg.

This study assesses the value of two analytical models explaining particular contemporary political events. This is undertaken through the comparative evaluation of two international models: the Advocacy Coalition Framework and Rhodes’s model of Governance. These approaches are evaluated against an single case study: the censorship of computer network (“online”) content in Australia. Through comparison evaluation, criticism, and reformulation, these approaches are presented as useful tools of policy analysis in Australia. / The first part of the thesis presents the theoretical basis of the research and the methodologies employed to apply them. It begins by examining how the disciplines of political science and public policy have focused on the role of politically-active “interest”, groups in the process of policy development and implementation. This focus has lead to ideas about the role of the state actors in policy making, and attempts to describe and explain the interface between public and private groups in developing and implementing public policies. These, largely British and American, theories have impacted upon Australian researchers who have applied these ideas to local conditions. The majority of this part, however, is spent introducing the two research approaches: Paul Sabatier’s Advocacy Coalitions Framework and Rod Rhodes’s theory of Governance. Stemming from dissatisfaction with research into implementation, Sabatier’s framework attempts to show how competing clusters of groups and individuals compete for policy “wins” in a discrete subsystem by using political strategies to effect favourable decisions and information to change the views of other groups. Governance, on the other hand, attempts to apply Rhodes’s observations to the changing nature of the British state (and by implication other liberal democracies) to show the importance of self-organising networks of organisations who monopolise power and insulate the processes of decision making and implementation from the wider community and state organs. Finally, the methodologies of the thesis are presented, based on the preferred research methods of the two authors. / The second part introduces the case serving as the basis for evaluating the models, namely, censorship of the content of computer networks in Australia between 1987 and 2000. This case arises in the late 1980s with the computerisation of society and technological developments leading to the introduction of, first publicly-accessible computer bulletin boards, and then the technology of the Internet. From a small hobbyists’ concern, the uptake of this technology combined with wider censorship issues leads to the consideration of online content by Australian Governments, seeking a system of regulation to apply to this technology. As the emerging Internet becomes popularised, and in the face of adverse media attention on, especially pornographic, online content, during the mid to late 1990s two Federal governments establish a series of policy processes that eventually lead to the introduction of the Broadcasting Services Amendment (Online Services) Act 1999, a policy decision bringing online content into Australia’s intergovernmental censorship system. / The final part analyses the case study using the two theoretical approaches. What this shows is that, from the perspective of the Advocacy Coalition Framework, debate over online content does not form a substantive policy subsystem until 1995, and within this three, relatively stable, competing coalitions emerge, each pressuring for different levels of action and intervention (from no regulation, to a strong regulatory model). While conflict within the subsystem varied, overall the framework’s analysis shows the dominance of a coalition consisting largely of professional and business interests favouring a light, co-regulatory approach to online content. From the perspective of Governance, the issue of online content is subject to a range of intra- and inter-governmental conflict in the period 1995-7, finally settling into a negotiated position where a complex policy community emerges based largely on structurally-determined resource dependencies. What this means is that policy making in the case was not autonomous of state institutions, but highly dependent on institutional power relations. Overall, in comparing the findings it becomes apparent that the approaches lack the capacity to fully explain the role of key sovereigns, defined here as those individuals with legal authority over decision making in the policy process, because of their methodological and normative assumptions about the policy process. By showing these individuals as part of wider networks of power-dependencies, and exploring the complex bundle of real, pseudo, symbolic, and nonsense elements that make up a policy, the role of Ministers as “semi-sovereign sovereigns” can be accommodated in the two approaches.

Kohoutek, J. Influence of macroeconomics factors on index PX. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2015. Aim of the thesis is theoretically and empirically explain the influence of macro-economic factors on the value of the index PX . For the analysis are used selected macroeconomic indicators and indexes of other exchanges. The time period of this data is from 2000 to 2013. The design is the least squares method and analysis of time series according to Box- Jenkins methodology . Part of this work is familiar with working on a similar theme other authors. In conclusion, results are evaluated and outlined the possibility of both the value of the index PX predict the future.