<p>This report develops a method for probabilistic conceptual sensor modeling. The idea is to generate probabilities for detection, recognition and identification based on a few simple factors. The</p><p>focus lies on FLIR sensors and thermal radiation, even if discussions of other wavelength bands are made. The model can be used as a hole or some or several parts can be used to create a simpler model. The core of the model is based on the Johnson criteria that uses resolution as the input parameter. Some extensions that models other factors are also implemented. In the end a short discussion of the possibility to use this model for other sensors than FLIR is made.</p>

This report develops a method for probabilistic conceptual sensor modeling. The idea is to generate probabilities for detection, recognition and identification based on a few simple factors. The focus lies on FLIR sensors and thermal radiation, even if discussions of other wavelength bands are made. The model can be used as a hole or some or several parts can be used to create a simpler model. The core of the model is based on the Johnson criteria that uses resolution as the input parameter. Some extensions that models other factors are also implemented. In the end a short discussion of the possibility to use this model for other sensors than FLIR is made.

Detta självständiga arbete undersöker stridstekniska obemannade luftfarkostsystem (SUAV) och potentiella tekniska system som är motverkande mot obemannade luftfarkoster (CUAS). Nyttjandet av stridstekniska obemannade luftfarkostsystem har ökat kraftigt och har observerats i både Syrien och Ukraina. I den ryska armén har de sett framgångsrik användning i samverkan med befintliga artillerisystem. Syftet med detta självständiga arbete är att analysera och förstå de effekter som tekniken har på militära operationer. I detta arbete används det militärtekniska konceptet ’militär nytta’ Andersson m.fl. (2015) i kombination med Johnsonkriteriet som används för att beräkna räckvidden på infraröda sensorer. Tillsammans med användningen av systemanalys och scenariobaserade metoder, har stridstekniska obemannade luftfarkostsystem och tekniska system som är motverkande mot obemannade luftfarkoster värderats med konceptet militär nytta. Slutsatserna från detta arbete visar att stridstekniska obemannade luftfarkostsystem har en god militär nytta då de används mot en motoriserad skyttebataljon (militär aktör), i förberedelsefasen av en fördröjningsstrid (kontext). Vid värderingen av de två tekniska systemalternativen som motverkar obemannade luftfarkoster; eldvapensystem och robotsystem, har bärbara luftvärnsrobotsystem bedömts ha en bättre militär nytta än automatkanonsystem på grund av dess möjliga användning i avsuttna operationer. / This independent project studies Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and potential Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems. The usage of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems has grown rapidly and has seen use in warfare in both Syria and Ukraine. In the Russian armed forces, they have seen successful use when used in combination with legacy artillery systems. The purpose of this independent project is to analyse and understand the effects that technology has on military operations. In this project, a military-technology concept called ‘military utility’ Andersson et al. (2015) is used in combination with the Johnson criteria which is used to calculate infrared sensor range. Together with the use of systems analysis and scenario-based methods, Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and two identified Counter Unmanned Aerial System alternatives have been assessed with the military utility concept. The conclusions of this independent project show that Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles have a good degree of military utility when used against a motorized infantry battalion (military actor), in the preparatory phase of a delay operation (context). When assessing the two Counter Unmanned Aerial System alternatives; gun-based systems and missile air defence systems, man-portable air-defence systems have, because of their possible use in dismounted operations, been considered to have a greater military utility in comparison to autocannon systems.