In this paper, we consider as an inverse problem the simultaneous estimation of the five parameters of a jump diffusion process from return observations of a price trajectory. We show that there occur some ill-posedness phenomena in the parameter estimation problem, because the forward operator fails to be injective and small perturbations in the data may lead to large changes in the solution. We illustrate the instability effect by a numerical case study. To overcome the difficulty coming from ill-posedness we use a multi-parameter regularization approach that finds a trade-off between a least-squares approach based on empircal densities and a fitting of semi-invariants. In this context, a fixed point iteration is proposed that provides good results for the example under consideration in the case study.

In this paper we discuss the stable solvability of the inverse problem of parameter identification in a jump diffusion model. Therefore we introduce the forward operator of this inverse problem and analyze its properties. We show continuity of the forward operator and stability of the inverse problem provided that the domain is restricted in a specific manner such that techniques of compact sets can be exploited. Furthermore, we show that there is an asymptotical non-injectivity which causes instability problems whenever the jump intensity increases and the jump heights decay simultaneously.

In this note, we consider an inverse problem in a jump diffusion model. Using characteristic functions we prove the injectivity of the forward operator mapping the five parameters determining the model to the density function of the return distribution.

We utilise several asset pricing models that allow for discontinuities in the returns and volatility time series in order to obtain estimates of Value-at-Risk (VaR). The first class of model that we use mixes a continuous diffusion process with discrete jumps at random points in time (Poisson Jump Diffusion Model). We also apply a purely discontinuous model that does not contain any continuous component at all in the underlying distribution (Variance Gamma Model). These models have been shown to have some success in capturing certain characteristics of return distributions, a few being leptokurtosis and skewness. Calibrating these models onto the returns of an index of Australian stocks (All Ordinaries Index), we then use the resulting parameters to obtain daily estimates of VaR. In order to obtain the VaR estimates for the Poisson Jump Diffusion Model and the Variance Gamma Model, we introduce the use of an innovation from option pricing techniques, which concentrates on the more tractable characteristic functions of the models. Having then obtained a series of VaR estimates, we then apply a variety of criteria to assess how each model performs and also evaluate these models against the traditional approaches to calculating VaR, such as that suggested by J.P. Morgan???s RiskMetrics. Our results show that whilst the Poisson Jump Diffusion model proved the most accurate at the 95% VaR level, neither the Poisson Jump Diffusion or Variance Gamma models were dominant in the other performance criteria examined. Overall, no model was clearly superior according to all the performance criteria analysed, and it seems that the extra computational time required to calibrate the Poisson Jump Diffusion and Variance Gamma models for the purposes of VaR estimation do not provide sufficient reward for the additional effort than that currently employed by Riskmetrics.

This thesis examines the empirical performance of four Affine Jump Diffusion models in pricing and hedging S&P 500 Index options: the Black Scholes (BS) model, Heston???s Stochastic Volatility (SV) model, a Stochastic Volatility Price Jump (SVJ) model and a Stochastic Volatility Price-Volatility Jump (SVJJ) model. The SVJJ model structure allows for simultaneous jumps in price and volatility processes, with correlated jump size distributions. To the best of our knowledge this is the first empirical study to test the hedging performance of the SVJJ model. As part of our research we derive the SVJJ model minimum variance hedge ratio. We find the SVJ model displays the best price prediction. The SV model lacks the structural complexity to eliminate Black Scholes pricing biases, whereas our results indicate the SVJJ model suffers from overfitting. Despite significant evidence from in and out-of-sample pricing that the SV and SVJ models were better specified than the BS model, this did not result in an improvement in dynamic hedging performance. Overall the BS delta hedge and SV minimum variance hedge produced the lowest errors, although their performance across moneyness-maturity categories differed greatly. The SVJ model???s results were surprisingly poor given its superior performance in out-of-sample pricing. We attribute the inadequate performance of the jump models to the lower hedging ratios these models provided, which may be a result of the negative expected jump sizes.

In this thesis, we investigate two stock price models, the Black-Scholes (BS) model and the Merton Jump-Diffusion (MJD) model. Comparing the logarithmic return of the BS model and the MJD model with empirical stock price data, we conclude that the Merton Jump-Diffusion Model is substantially more suitable for the stock market. This is concluded visually not only by comparing the density functions but also by analyzing mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the log-returns. One technical contribution to the thesis is a suggested decision rule for initial guess of a maximum likelihood estimation of the MJD-modeled parameters.

The thesis focuses on pricing complex options using Monte Carlo simulations. Due to the versatility of the Monte Carlo method, we are able to evaluate option prices with various underlying asset models: jump diffusion models, illiquidity models, stochastic volatility and so on. Both European options and Bermudan options are studied in this thesis.For the jump diffusion model in Merton (1973), we demonstrate European and Bermudan option pricing by the Monte Carlo scheme and extend this to multiple underlying assets; furthermore, we analyse the effect of stochastic volatility.For the illiquidity model in the spirit of Glover (2008), we model the illiquidity impact on option pricing in the simulation study. The four models considered are: the first order feedback model with constant illiquidity and stochastic illiquidity; the full feedback model with constant illiquidity and stochastic illiquidity. We provide detailed explanations for the present of path failures when simulating the underlying asset price movement and suggest some measures to overcome these difficulties.

博士（経営） / 85 p. / 一橋大学

The problem of epipolar geometry estimation together with correspondence establishment in case of wide baseline and large scale changes and rotation has been addressed in this work. This work deals with cases that are heavily noised by outliers. The jump diffusion MCMC method has been employed to search for the non-degenerate epipolar geometry with the highest probabilistic support of putative correspondences. At the same time, inliers in the putative set are also identified. The jump steps involve large movements guided by a distribution of similarity based priors while diffusion steps are small movements guided by a distribution of likelihoods given by the Joint Feature Distribution (JFD). The 'best so far' samples are accepted in accordance to Metropolis-Hastings method. The diffusion steps are carried out by sampling conditioned on the 'best so far', making it local to the 'best so far' sample, while jump steps remain unconditioned and span across the correspondence and motion space according to a similarity based proposal distribution making large movements. We advance the theory in three novel ways. First, a similarity based prior proposal distribution which guide jump steps. Second, JFD based likelihoods which guide diffusion steps allowing more focused correspondence establishment while searching for epipolar geometry. Third, a measure of degeneracy that allows to rule out degenerate configurations. The jump diffusion framework thus defined allows handling over 90% outliers even in cases where the number of inliers is very few. Practically, the advancement lies in higher precision and accuracy that has been detailed in this work by comparisons. In this work, BLOGS is compared with LO-RANSAC, NAPSAC, MAPSAC and BEEM algorithm, which are the current state of the art competing methods, on a dataset that has significantly more change in baseline, rotation, and scale than those used in the state of the art. Performance of these algorithms and BLOGS are quantitatively benchmark for a comparison by estimating the error in the epipolar geometry given by root mean Sampson's distance from manually specified corresponding point pairs which serve as a ground truth. Not just is BLOGS able to tolerate very high outlier rates, but also gives result of similar quality in 10 times lesser number of iterations than the most competitive among the compared algorithms.

In this paper, we consider as an inverse problem the simultaneous estimation of the five parameters of a jump diffusion process from return observations of a price trajectory. We show that there occur some ill-posedness phenomena in the parameter estimation problem, because the forward operator fails to be injective and small perturbations in the data may lead to large changes in the solution. We illustrate the instability effect by a numerical case study. To overcome the difficulty coming from ill-posedness we use a multi-parameter regularization approach that finds a trade-off between a least-squares approach based on empircal densities and a fitting of semi-invariants. In this context, a fixed point iteration is proposed that provides good results for the example under consideration in the case study.