Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Population prospects of Kazakhstan till 2030 Abstract Population change affects national income, national expenditure, and the demand for services such as education, health and transport. Therefore, information about future population size and structure obtained with the help of population forecasts, which can be used for a wide range of decision-making purposes, is of paramount importance. The primary aim of this dissertation is to produce three different types of population forecasts for Kazakhstan till 2030 and by comparing and analysing the differences to find out the most important factors determining the population development process in the country. Kazakhstan is a country with significant size and regional diversity which makes it relevant to consider those dimensions in population forecasting. Most southern oblasts of the country have a young population structure meaning that much of future population growth, particularly of working age, will come from these regions. Also, native population tends to concentrate in rural areas, while industrialized cities are mostly populated by non-natives with considerably different nuptiality and fertility behaviour. Despite such regional and residential demographic differences, presently the country is experiencing an overall increase in birth rates. Many claims...

Jazybayeva A.: Regional population forecast for the Republic of Kazakhstan 4 Regional population forecast for the Republic of Kazakhstan Abstract This dissertation has three objectives. The first objective is to present literature review about theoretical background of regional population forecast. The second objective is to analyze demographic situation with relation to past and current fertility, mortality and migration development in regions of Kazakhstan. The third objective is to demonstrate two practical implementations of regional population projections. The first example is a multiregional population projection with population horizon 2009-2029 for 16 administrative divisions of Kazakhstan using period data for the year 2008 and inferring required age-sex specific interregional transition data. The second example is a multiregional population projection for period 2004-2059 of four macroregions using period-observational plan 2004-2008 and imposing internal consistency relations. The second example follows generations of people born during period of recovering fertility when these generations will be approaching retirement ages. Keywords: multiregional population projections, internal migration, consistency restraints Regionální populační prognóza Republiky Kazachstán Shrnutí Tato disertace má tři...

1 Abstract Central Asia is located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. The region includes five different countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The countries differ in the terms of the economic development, and a degree of the openness of the national economies, as well as in the foreign trade and the orientation of the foreign policy. Some states of the region belong to the poorest countries of the world while the others keep a quite successful way of the economic development. In the region there are countries which retain sufficiently isolated from the world economy (such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) and Kazakhstan which formed an open liberal economy since gaining the independence. Also there are countries which focused on the development of cooperation with Europe as well as the other regions abroad and at the same time there are countries aimed at preserving and developing the deeper ties with neighboring Russia and China. In June 2007 the European Council of the EU adopted a new strategy towards Central Asia for the period from 2007 to 2013. And despite the strategy is short-term, yet it is a political document (Council of the European Union, 2007). In accordance with the adopted «Strategy for a New Partnership» the EU engages with the region in many areas,...

Trends and patterns of cancer mortality in Kazakhstan in comparison with some selected European countries from 1986 to 2008 Abstract Cancer is the third leading cause of premature death in Kazakhstan. Every year more than thirty thousand Kazakhstani people are diagnosed with cancer. This master thesis tries to provide base for the cancer control programmes in Kazakhstan. It also analyses the changes of the mortality level and distribution by the most important groups of tumours for men and women. The most common types of cancer are lung, skin, breast and stomach. These four cancers combined account for over 44% of new cases of cancer. Lung cancer is the most common cancer in men accounting for nearly a quarter of cancer cases in men. Breast cancer is by far the most common cancer in women accounting for 20%. Cancer remains mainly a disease of older Kazakhstanis. The largest proportion of cancer deaths for both men and women were from lung cancer mainly caused by smoking. Deaths from cancers of the lung, stomach, breast and esophagus together accounted for almost a half (46%) of all cancer deaths. With an estimated ASMR 225.5 for males and 122.0 for females in 2008, cancer remains an important public health problem in Kazakhstan. The international comparison illustrates the differences in cancer mortality in...

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The evolution of Kazakhstan's security policies since independence, and particularly after September 11, 2001, indicates that the country has chosen to play an active role in regional and international security as a means to security its own national interests. It has opened to the West, and played an active role in the War on Terrorism. It has also worked to maintain Central Asia's regional security architecture. These policies have had some demonstrable affect on national, regional and international security, but as a young state in a troubled region Kazakhstan will require increased Western assistance if it is to become the force for stability that it seeks to be. Kazakhstan has a very important geopolitical location, and can play a role of a regional leader in Central Asia, but it is still a very young state and needs a strong support. "Perhaps nowhere was the granting of independence more bittersweet and the challenges of sustaining it more complex than in the case of Kazakhstan." (Mathews, Jessica T. Foreword in "Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise" by Olcott, Martha Brill, Washington D.C. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002) / Colonel, Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Population development of Kazakhstan: geographic, economic and geopolitical aspects Abstract Present research based on analysis of the main trends in demographic development of Kazakhstan at the national and regional level. Demographic changes are quite important factor affecting the problems of territorial, economic and geopolitical development of the country. Relatively small population quite clearly reflects the changes of economic and geopolitical conditions. The result of it is the changes in population size, structure, and geographical pattern. Over the past decade in Kazakhstan observed population growth and change of ethnic structure. Against this background, distribution of the population within the country becomes one of the key problems in Kazakhstan. The main reason is growing disproportions in economic development of regions. Quite significant role here plays the ethnic heterogeneity of the regions, which also determines the nature of population development. Under such conditions, the demographic development acquires strategic importance.

Population prospects of Kazakhstan till 2030 Abstract Population change affects national income, national expenditure, and the demand for services such as education, health and transport. Therefore, information about future population size and structure obtained with the help of population forecasts, which can be used for a wide range of decision-making purposes, is of paramount importance. The primary aim of this dissertation is to produce three different types of population forecasts for Kazakhstan till 2030 and by comparing and analysing the differences to find out the most important factors determining the population development process in the country. Kazakhstan is a country with significant size and regional diversity which makes it relevant to consider those dimensions in population forecasting. Most southern oblasts of the country have a young population structure meaning that much of future population growth, particularly of working age, will come from these regions. Also, native population tends to concentrate in rural areas, while industrialized cities are mostly populated by non-natives with considerably different nuptiality and fertility behaviour. Despite such regional and residential demographic differences, presently the country is experiencing an overall increase in birth rates. Many claims...

Purpose – The financial systems in many emerging countries are still impacted by the devastating effect of the 2008 financial crisis which created a massive disaster in the global economy. The banking sector needs appropriate quantitative techniques to assess its financial soundness, strengths and weaknesses. This research aims to explore, empirically assess and analyze the financial soundness of the banking sector in Kazakhstan. It also examines the prediction of financial unsoundness at an individual bank level using PCA, cluster, MDA, logit and probit analyses. Design/Methodology/Approach – A cluster analysis, in combination with principal component analysis (PCA), was utilized as a classification technique. It groups sound and unsound banks in Kazakhstan's banking sector by examining various financial ratios. Cluster analysis was run on a sample of 34 commercial banks on 1st January, 2008 and 37 commercial banks on 1st January, 2014 to test the ability of this technique to detect unsound banks before they fail. Then, Altman Z” and EM Score models were tested and re-estimated and the MDA, logit and probit models were constructed on a sample of 12 Kazakhstan banks during the period between 1st January, 2008 and 1st January, 2014. The sample consists of 6 sound and 6 unsound banks and accounts for 81.3% of the total assets of the Kazakhstan banking sector in 2014. These statistical methods used various financial variables to represent capital adequacy, asset quality, management, earnings and liquidity. Last but not least, the MDA, logit and probit models were systematically combined together to construct an integrated model to predict bank financial unsoundness. Findings – First of all, results from Chapter 3 indicate that cluster analysis is able to identify the structure of the Kazakh banking sector by the degree of financial soundness. Secondly, based on the findings in the second empirical chapter, the tested and re-estimated Altman models show a modest ability to predict bank financial unsoundness in Kazakhstan. Thirdly, the MDA, logit and probit models show high predictive accuracy in excess of 80%. Finally, the model that integrated the MDA, logit and probit types presents superior predictability with lower Type I errors. Practical Implications – The results of this research are of interest to supervisory and regulatory bodies. The models can be used as a reliable and effective tool, particularly the cluster based methodology for assessing the degree of financial soundness in the banking sector and the integrated model for predicting the financial unsoundness of banks. Originality/Value – This study is the first to employ a cluster-based methodology to assess financial soundness in the Kazakh banking sector. In addition, the integrated model can be used as a promising technique for evaluating the financial unsoundness of banks in terms of predictive accuracy and robustness. Importance – Assessing the financial soundness of the Kazakh banking system is of particular importance as the World Bank has ranked Kazakhstan as leading the world for the volume of non-performing credits in the total number of loans granted in 2012. It is one of the first academic studies carried out on Kazakhstan banks which comprehensively evaluate the financial soundness of banks. It is anticipated that the findings of the current study will provide useful lessons for developing and transition countries during periods of financial turmoil.

In this thesis I examine the question: how do Kazakhstan academics respond to the reforms of higher education (HE) carried out as part of Europeanisation? I study the local academics' accounts of the process of implementation of the Bologna Process and of wider Western education standards within local post-Soviet practice, since the beginning of the twenty-first century. This local policy implementation is examined within the framework of educational policy borrowing, grounded in works by Steiner-Khamsi, Silova, and Phillips. Thirty-eight interviews were conducted in four HE institutions in different regions of Kazakhstan and analysed through the application of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) based on work by van Dijk and Fairclough. Using the method of CDA, I explore how power relationships and abuses of power play out between the educational authority and the academics in the politically driven reform environment, and how academics respond to this in their views of the reforms. I found that participants overall are critical of the reform process. They respond with three discourses, identified as nostalgia and loss, progress and modernity and chaotic reform. While the discourse of nostalgia implicitly connects to the 'better' Soviet education, as an ideological belief inherited from the past, and the discourse of progress reflects the spread of the ideology of European modernity, they both appear in connection to the central discourse of chaotic reformation. I found that chaos, which is a prime characteristic of the reforms in Kazakhstan HE, is linked to clashes between political/educational motivations and Soviet/Western approaches. These findings support my main argument that the specific post-Soviet context should be taken into account in studies of education in the 'Second World'. These 'context models' are influential on how Western standards are implemented in the reality of post-Soviet education.