Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T01:23:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Giannella_Andrea_M.pdf: 1109618 bytes, checksum: 700c4b7467685ccd3fe8aa918a8324e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: John M. Keynes e Dennis H. Robertson, ambos economistas de Cambridge, foram intensos colaboradores intelectuais na década de 1920; mas após da publicação da Teoria geral de Keynes, em 1936, a colaboração foi substituída por uma ostensiva rivalidade teórica. O ponto de inflexão do relacionamento entre ambos, entretanto, antecede esta época, e remonta à publicação do Tratado sobre a moeda de Keynes, em 1930. A partir da resenha que Robertson fez deste livro, os autores travaram um debate teórico e terminológico, acerca de questões como a determinação do preço dos bens de investimento, a relação entre poupança, investimento e entesouramento, e a determinação da quantidade de depósitos inativos na economia. Este debate, denominado pela literatura especializada de controvérsia "dos baldes em um poço", foi considerado de importância fundamental para as futuras divergências entre os autores, mas não recebeu atenção analítica à altura desta consideração. Nesta dissertação, argumenta-se que o desdobramento dos pontos debatidos esteve em parte relacionado à necessidade de Keynes de responder às críticas de Hayek ao livro, e procura-se estabelecer um modo de correlação entre os diversos conceitos debatidos (entesouramento, depósitos inativos, nível de preço dos bens de investimento, poupança, etc.) Considerou-se, como ponto de orientação geral, a pergunta: a controvérsia foi teórica ou simplesmente terminológica? O que se constata é que não há resposta simples para esta questão. De fato, a "controvérsia dos baldes em um poço" mistura assuntos teóricos, talvez não inteiramente compatíveis entre si, e em relação aos quais a diferença entre os autores foi em parte teórica, e em parte terminológica / Abstract: John M. Keynes and Dennis H. Robertson, both economists from Cambridge, were intense intellectual collaborators in the 1920s; but after the publication of Keynes?s General theory, in 1936, their collaboration was substitutes by an ostensive theoretical rivalry. The turning point of their relationship, however, is previous from that time, and goes back to the publication of Keynes's Treatise on money, in 1930. From Robertson's review of that book on, the authors engaged in a theoretical and terminological debate, concerning matters such as the determination of the price of investment goods, the relation between saving, investment and hoarding, and the determination of the quantity of inactive deposits in the economy. This debate, named the "buckets in a well" controversy by the specialized literature, was considered to be of fundamental importance for the future divergence between the authors, but did not receive an analytical attention compatible to such consideration. In this dissertation, it is argued that the unfolding of the subjects in the debated was partially related to Keynes's need to answer Hayek's critics of his book, and the dissertation means to establish a way to correlate the many debated concepts (hoarding, inactive deposits, price level of investment goods, saving, etc.) It was considered, as a general point of orientation, the question: was the controversy theoretical, or simply terminological? It is concluded that there is no simple answer to such question. As a matter of a fact, the "buckets in a well controversy" mixes many theoretical subjects, which may not be entirely compatible one to another, and in relation to which the difference between the authors was partially theoretical, and partially terminological / Mestrado / Historia Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

De acordo com León-Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002), o presente trabalho se propõe a testar a endogeneidade da taxa natural de crescimento para um conjunto amplo de países, no sentido do crescimento de longo prazo ser determinado pela demanda. Econometricamente, a principal hipótese a ser testada é a presença de não linearidade na Lei de Okun, que implica na existência de duas taxas naturais, cada uma correspondendo a um regime de crescimento. Utilizando dados anuais para o período de 1980 a 2007 e dados trimestrais para o intervalo entre 1980 e 2011, os resultados corroboram a hipótese de endogeneidade quando aplicada a metodologia proposta por LLT. Esta evidência se repete ao definir exogenamente os regimes de crescimento pelos métodos de Markov-Switching e threshold autoregressive regression (TAR) para os dados anuais, no entanto, para os dados trimestrais há indicações de endogeneidade e exogeneidade da taxa natural de crescimento. / Following León-Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002), this master\'s thesis aims to examine the sensitivity of the natural growth rate to the actual growth rate for a broad set of countries, based on demand-led growth theory. The main hypothesis being tested is the presence of non-linearities in Okun\'s Law, which means the existence of two natural growth rates, each corresponding to a growth regime. Using annual data over the period 1980-2007 and quarterly data over the period 1980-2011, the results support the idea that natural growth rate is dependent of the actual growth rate when applying LLT\'s methodology. This evidence repeats when establishing exogenously the regimes of growth by using Markov-Switching and threshold autoregressive regression (TAR) for the annual data, however for quarterly data this is less straightforward, having indication of endogenous and exogenous natural growth rate.

Os principais modelos de equilíbrio parcial e DSGE que estudam a dinâmica do investimento desconsideram questões centrais para a pesquisa desse tema e tem dificuldades em explicar resultados da literatura empírica. Defendemos que estudar a dinâmica do investimento como um sistema adaptativo complexo por meio de modelos de simulação baseados em agentes (ABMs) é uma alternativa promissora. Nessa dissertação motivamos, descrevemos, justificamos metodologicamente e construímos um ABM nos inspirando em modelos importantes da literatura e incorporamos às expectativas de demanda das firmas uma regra de revisão de otimismo e um mecanismo de interação em suas decisões de produção e investimento. Com isso, reproduzimos diversos fatos estilizados da literatura empírica e conseguimos testar os efeitos macroeconômicos de hipóteses teóricas relacionadas a fenômenos de contágio via confiança, motivações políticas e à reflexividade, presentes nas decisões das firmas. Nossos resultados colocam em dúvida a efetividade de mecanismos análogos à greve de investimentos, como meios dos empresários controlarem as políticas dos governos, mas confirmam que endogeneizar possíveis motivações políticas, ainda que subjetivas, no nível de confiança das firmas tem efeitos macroeconômicos substanciais. Ademais, nossos experimentos sugerem que i) tanto a evolução da produtividade, quanto dos salários reais são condições necessárias para o crescimento, ii) choques de confiança temporários tem efeitos de longo-prazo, iii) para que choques de pessimismo localizados contagiem a economia, eles precisam ser persistentes, iv) considerar o conceito de reflexividade tem consequências macroeconômicas importantes. Não encontramos evidências de que contrações fiscais do governo possam ser expansionistas, por meio de seus efeitos na confiança. / The main parcial equilibrium and DSGE models which study investment dynamics disregard core issues about this subject and have problems to explain results coming from the empirical literature. We argue that studying investment dynamics in a complex adaptive system by using Agent-Based Models is a promising alternative. In this work we motivate, describe, justify methodologically and build an ABM in line with important models from the literature and we incorporate to firms\' demand expectations an optimism revision rule and an interaction mechanism in their decisions to produce and invest. Thereby, we replicate many stylized facts from the empirical literature and we were able to test macroeconomic effects from theoretical hypothesis related to confidence-driven contagion phenomena, political motivation and reflexivity, present in firms\' decisions. Our results question the effectiveness of mechanisms analogous to the investment strikes, as a way for businessmen to control government policies, but confirm that endogenize possible political motivations, yet subjective, in the level of confidence of the firms has substantial macroeconomic effects. Furthermore, our experiments suggest that i) both productivity and real wages are necessary conditions for growth, ii) temporary confidence shocks have long-term effect, iii ) for localized shocks of pessimism, to contagion the economy, they need to be persistent, iv) consider the concept of reflexivity has important macroeconomic consequences. We find no evidence that government fiscal contractions can be expansionist, through their effects on confidence levels.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T05:46:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Souza_LeonardoFlauzinode_M.pdf: 1156212 bytes, checksum: 680a27401a91a86efbf66d613a7ad412 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: A crise econômica de 2008 pode ser analisada pelo arcabouço das teorias keynesianas, em especial a partir das interpretações em torno da teoria da preferência pela liquidez. Esta foi elaborada primeiramente na Teoria Geral de Keynes, mas alcançou interpretações muito diversas nas obras de Kaldor, Hicks, Davidson e Minsky. As idéias expostas por estes autores são capazes de fornecer algumas explicações sobre as escolhas de ativos, em especial os relacionados aos mercados financeiros, e analisar os impactos dinâmicos das decisões de financiamento e alocação do capital. Entretanto, algumas inovações financeiras, como a securitização e os derivativos, que tiveram uma participação fundamental na constituição da crise, não são, de forma geral, exploradas por estes autores. Desta forma, o presente trabalho se propõe a explorar a teoria e as interpretações supracitadas, a fim de construir uma analise teórica da crise de 2008, abarcando as contribuições das inovações financeiras mencionadas. O contexto histórico em torno da crise de 2008, analisado pelo viés teórico keynesiano, é capaz de explicar como esta tomou a forma de uma das mais severas crises da história do capitalismo contemporâneo. Ao se iniciar como uma crise de crédito convencional e aos poucos tomar a forma de uma crise de liquidez e solvência, destaca-se o papel crucial da securitização de créditos e dos derivativos financeiros neste processo, alterando as escolhas de portfólio, as decisões de financiamento e a dinâmica das interações entre os balanços das diversas instituições financeiras da economia norte-americana e mundial / Abstract: The 2008 economic crisis can be analyzed by the framework of post-Keynesian theories, especially the interpretations around the liquidity preference theory. This one was first presented in Keynes' General Theory, but it reached very different interpretations in the work of Kaldor, Hicks, Davidson and Minsky. The ideas put forward by these authors can provide some explanations about the asset choices, particularly those related to financial markets, and analyze the dynamic impact of finance decisions and capital allocation. However, some financial innovations, such as securitization and derivatives, which had a seminal role in the constitution of the crisis, are not generally exploited by these authors. Thus, this study aims to explore the theory and the interpretations above, in order to build a theoretical analysis of the 2008 economic crisis, covering the contributions of the financial innovations mentioned. The historical context surrounding the 2008 economic crisis, analyzed by the bias of Keynesian theory, is able to explain how that took the form of one of the most severe crises in the history of contemporary capitalism. When it start as a conventional credit crisis and gradually take the form of a crisis of liquidity and solvency, it highlight the crucial role of securitization of loans and financial derivatives in this process, changing the portfolio choices, funding decisions and the dynamics of interactions between the balance sheets of many financial institutions in the U.S. economy and the world / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Submitted by Flávia Rubio (flaviacarrasco@gmail.com) on 2013-03-06T01:16:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Flavia C Rubioentrega.pdf: 974449 bytes, checksum: 73d67e621187e04b1662c91a7b78679c (MD5) / Rejected by Eliene Soares da Silva (eliene.silva@fgv.br), reason: Flavia, conforme conversamos, acrescente Palavras-chave e Key words no texto. Submeter a dissertação novamente. Obrigada. Eliene Secretaria de Registro on 2013-03-06T13:25:29Z (GMT) / Submitted by Flávia Rubio (flaviacarrasco@gmail.com) on 2013-03-06T13:45:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Flavia C Rubioentrega.pdf: 974171 bytes, checksum: 78759987679a971584ffc8771f9b21c0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eliene Soares da Silva (eliene.silva@fgv.br) on 2013-03-06T13:46:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Flavia C Rubioentrega.pdf: 974171 bytes, checksum: 78759987679a971584ffc8771f9b21c0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-03-06T14:04:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Flavia C Rubioentrega.pdf: 974171 bytes, checksum: 78759987679a971584ffc8771f9b21c0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-07 / The present study aims to evaluate, from a theoretical perspective, the fundamental basis argumentative which put economic science at distinct level of analysis. On one hand, the strong mathematical apparatus and microfundamentals that support the mainstream economic view. On the other hand, Keynes’s evaluation (post-keynesian perspective) about economic science. Therefore, the first chapter starts rebuilding the orthodox economics in its basis. From that perspective, the purpose of the study is focused on the new classic economic school, furthermore the contributions of Robert Lucas, the best specialist in the wealth and work processes. The second chapter presents the heterodox construction through a post-keynesian perspective, that by analyzing Keynes, and specially the work of Davidson, will propose to look back to political economics. In the third chapter, the objective is to discuss a new methodology of economics, study objects and their positioning within science. / O presente trabalho busca avaliar, de uma perspectiva teórica, as bases fundamentais argumentativas que colocam a ciência econômica em patamares tão distintos de análise: De um lado, o forte aparato matemático e de microfundamentos que sustentam a visão do mainstream economics. De outro a avaliação de Keynes (da perspectiva pós-keynesiana) acerca do objeto da ciência econômica. Para isso, inicia-se no primeiro capítulo uma reconstrução da Economia ortodoxa em sua base. De tal perspectiva, o estudo proposto se concentra na chamada escola novo clássica, sobretudo as contribuições de Robert Lucas, expoente maior, acerca do processo de geração de renda e emprego. No segundo capítulo, apresenta-se o constructo heterodoxo, através de uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana que ao resgatar Keynes, sobretudo os trabalhos de Davidson, vai propor a volta ao olhar de economia política. No terceiro capítulo visa construir o debate acerca da metodologia econômica, objetos de estudo e seu posicionamento dentro da ciência.

Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is used to construct two different indices for financial instability: a long-term index (Long Term Financial Instability) and a short-term index (Short Term Financial Instability). The former focuses on the underlying fragility of financial structures of units in the economy while the latter focuses on more immediate developments and manages to follow turmoil – “a financial crisis” – in the economy. The interplay of the indices with each other, with economic growth and with Foreign Direct Investment, both in general and in the financial industry, is probed. In short, we find that long term financial stability, i.e. secure financial structures in the economy or a low level of Long Term Financial Instability, is sacrificed for maintaining short term financial stability. However, more Long Term Financial Instability is associated, as Minsky expected, with more fluctuations in Short Term Financial Instability: market turmoil is more common the more fragile underlying financial structures of units in the economy are. This signals that markets are ruled by short-termism. Economic growth is harmed by Short Term Financial Instability but the effects of Long Term Financial Instability are weaker. The common expectation that FDI activities strengthen financial stability is not confirmed. The relationship found hints rather in the opposite direction: FDI activities seem to cause financial instability. Based on the those investigations and a further empirical work using data from Iceland, Leigh Harkness’s Optimum Exchange Rate System (OERS) is developed further with the intention of solving “The Policy Problem” as described by Minsky. Insights from control theory are used. The OERS, along with public debt management as carried out by Keynes, is argued to have the ability to keep economic activity in the state of a permanent “quasi-boom”. The policy implications are that the OERS should be considered as a monetary policy as it permits a free flow of capital, thereby allowing economies to reap the possible positive benefits of foreign direct investment, while still conserving financial stability.

The purpose of this paper was to evaluate if the macroeconomic change that has occurred in the South African economy since the 1980s has been significant enough to justify a re-examination of the actuaries’ capitalisation rate, due to its formulation processes dependence on the macroeconomic situation. The need for the reexamination arises from the use of the capitalisation in the calculation of lump sum awards where even a small change in the rate can have a significant impact on the value of the final award. In order to address the issue an examination of how Keynesian expectations are formulated and an examination of the Government’s macroeconomic policy was conducted to provide the foundation. On this foundation, a trend analysis of the major groups of financial instruments, as well as the current outlooks for the South African economy, was conducted to determine if there was any indication of a significant change in the macroeconomic conditions. The results of the analysis provided a compelling case for the urgent need for the actuaries’ capitalisation rate to be recalculated to account for the changed economic situation.

This thesis is focused on the solution to economic crises in Czechoslovakia in 1930's projected by Josef Macek. The first part describes process and consequences of the crisis and its influence on Czechoslovakian economy. Concrete arrangements made by government and main attitudes to this problem will be mentioned also in this section.The second part will be devoted to the personality of Josef Macek and his economic theories. The last and largest part deals with proposals of Josef Macek which should help the Czechoslovakian economy in the period of recession and bring the economy back to expansion. Opinions of Josef Macek are taken and analyzed from prime sources of information -- his works, public performances and articles -- written during 1930's. The aim of this thesis is to introduce the opinions of Josef Macek as a opposite to arrangements made by the government.

This analysis studies the phenomenon of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve - its inception from the RBC theory and DSGE modelling via incorporation of nominal rigidities, and its various specifications and empirical issues. The estimates on Czech macroeconomic data using the Generalised Method of Moments show that the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve with the labour income share or the real unit labour cost as driving variables can be considered as an appropriate model describing inflation in the Czech Republic. Compared to other analyses, we show that the inflation process in the Czech Republic exhibits higher backwardness vis-a-vis other researchers' estimates based on US data.

After more than 30 years of fast economic development since the Reform and open up to the world in 1978. Chinas socialist market economy is ranked at the worlds second largest economy by nominal GDP. and the worlds largest economy by purchasing power parity according to the IMF today. In spite of the outstanding economic data. China is facing numbers of problems like overcapacity and high financial risk. The goal of this thesis is to dig into the hidden realities behind the fast economic growth of China mainly through analyzing the economic situation after the 2008-09 Chinese economic stimulus plan. which is known asthe 4 trillion RMB (USD 586 billion) stimulus package announced by the State Council of the Peoples Republic of China on 9 November 2008. It is regarded as an attempt to minimize the impact of the global financial crisis on the worlds second largest economy. However. critics of Chinas stimulus package have blamed it for causing a surge in Chinese debt and overcapacity since 2009. particularly among local governments and state-owned enterprises.