This thesis examines the relationship of monetary policy and investment in a theoretical framework in which monetary and real economic forces are intrinsically interlinked. The full shift from a money, real dichotomy in historical economic thought to the notion of money being an essential determinant of economic outcomes is traced to the work of Keynes, partly in the Treatise (1930), but more completely in the General Theory (1936). The treatment of monetary forces in economic growth models is examined. It is found that the money, investment relationship, with close money, real interaction, is appropriately pursued in the approach to monetary theory adopted by those who could broadly be characterised as Post Keynesian. The operation of monetary forces through the banking system is examined using this theoretical backdrop. A symbolic model is developed of the influence channels implied by the theoretical analysis, using the South African monetary system as the specific focus. The symbolic model is expressed in a form which enables empirical examination. South African data are compiled and used to determine the nature and statistical significance of hypothesised relationships. The implications of the theoretical analysis and empirical examination are drawn out both for monetary theory within the Post Keynesian mould, and for the conduct of monetary policy, in South Africa in particular. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)

This thesis examines the relationship of monetary policy and investment in a theoretical framework in which monetary and real economic forces are intrinsically interlinked. The full shift from a money, real dichotomy in historical economic thought to the notion of money being an essential determinant of economic outcomes is traced to the work of Keynes, partly in the Treatise (1930), but more completely in the General Theory (1936). The treatment of monetary forces in economic growth models is examined. It is found that the money, investment relationship, with close money, real interaction, is appropriately pursued in the approach to monetary theory adopted by those who could broadly be characterised as Post Keynesian. The operation of monetary forces through the banking system is examined using this theoretical backdrop. A symbolic model is developed of the influence channels implied by the theoretical analysis, using the South African monetary system as the specific focus. The symbolic model is expressed in a form which enables empirical examination. South African data are compiled and used to determine the nature and statistical significance of hypothesised relationships. The implications of the theoretical analysis and empirical examination are drawn out both for monetary theory within the Post Keynesian mould, and for the conduct of monetary policy, in South Africa in particular. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)

The assertion that financial flows are the primary drivers of exchange rates may be considered as financial markets become increasingly large and sophisticated. However, the Post-Keynesian critique leaves little room for the real economy to impact exchange rates. This paper aims to extend the Mundell-Fleming model to address the Post-Keynesian critique of mainstream models, by incorporating wealth effects, expectations, and Taylor-rule interest targeting. Discussion of significant financial events affecting the USDJPY exchange rate finds that wealth effects are significant considerations, and that the real economy cannot be discounted completely. Empirical results find that the real interest rate is a significant factor in exchange rate determination, tying into the discussion over the relationship between savings and consumption.

New Consensus Models (NCMs) have been criticised by Post-Keynesians (PKs) for a variety of reasons. The paper presents a model that synthesises several of the PK arguments. The model consists of three classes: rentiers, firms and workers. It has a short-run inflation barrier derived from distribution conflict between these classes, which is endogenous in the medium run. Distribution conflict does not only affect inflation but also income shares. On the demand side the income classes have different saving propensities. We apply a Kaleckian investment function with expected sales and internal funds as major determinants. The paper analyses short-run stability and includes medium-run endogeneity channels for the Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU): persistence mechanisms in the labour market, adaptive wage and profit aspirations, investment in capital stock and cost effects of interest rate changes. The model is used to analyse NCM and PK policy assignments and policy rules. We argue that improved employment without increasing inflation will be possible, if macroeconomic policies are coordinated along the following lines: The central bank targets distribution, wage bargaining parties target inflation and fiscal policies are applied for short- and medium-run real stabilisation purposes. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Composée de deux parties et de quatre chapitres dans chaque partie, la première partie de la thèse examine la théorie du profit par la consommation nette (théorie-Cn) de George Reisman. La théorie-Cn fournit une grande partie du cadre analytique de Reisman, ainsi que des conclusions normatives sur la justice et la stabilité d'une économie capitaliste de marché libre. Nous examinons la prétention de cette synthèse à réconcilier l'approche classique et la dynamique de phénomènes généraux comme le profit et les salaires, la consommation et l'épargne, l'argent et le crédit. La formulation de cette théorie limite son attention aux coûts des entreprises (monétaire) et les conçoit comme dérivé des dépenses antérieures des entreprises pour des facteurs (main-d'oeuvre et capital), qui à leur tour sont financées par l'épargne. Contrairement à la théorie keynésienne, ici la consommation supplémentaire n'est ni suffisante ni nécessaire pour créer une demande supplémentaire de facteurs : elle y est antinomique. Des économies supplémentaires et des dépenses de production sont nécessaires, mais non suffisantes, pour qu'il y ait augmentation équivalente de la demande de facteurs de production. Et puisque les ventes englobent à la fois la demande de produits de consommation et la demande de facteurs de production des entreprises, les coûts ont tendance à être en retard sur les ventes. La différence qui en résulte entre les ventes et les coûts est égale au montant (global) et nous mène au taux de profit (moyen) gagné par les entreprises. / Consisting of two parts and four chapters in each part, the dissertation, in the first part, sets forth and reviews the logical substance of George Reisman's netconsumption theory of profit (nc-theory). The nc-theory provides much of both Reisman's overall analytical framework as well as normative conclusions about the justice and stability of a free-market, capitalist economy. We examine the synthesis' claim to have reconciled the classical approach with the Austrian/neoclassical emphasis of the primacy of behavioral foundations of all economic phenomena. The theory's formula restricts its attention to business (money) costs and conceives of them as derivative of prior business expenditure for factors (labor and capital goods), which in turn is financed out of saving. In contrast to Keynesian economic where spending of any kind is sufficient to finance the demand for input factors, in the nc-theory additional consumption is neither sufficient nor necessary to create additional factor demand; indeed, it is positively antithetical to it. Additional saving and productive expenditure are a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for an equivalent increase in demand for input factors. And since sales encompass both the demand for consumers' goods as well as business' demand for factors while costs are a function of productive expenditure by business only, costs tend to lag behind sales. The resultant difference between sales and costs equals (aggregate) amount and provides the means to arrive at (average) rate of profit earned by business in total.

Utilizando a survey junto ao consumidor da universidade de Michigan, obtivemos dados a respeito das expectativas dos agentes não só sobre inflação, mas também sobre nível de atividade (os estudos de Roberts (1997) utilizaram apenas os dados de survey sobre expectativas inflacionárias). Verificamos, então, que grande parcela do custo das estabilizações dos EUA foi antecipado pela maior parte dos agentes, o que nos levou a rejeitar os modelos de Taylor (1979, 1980) e de Calvo (1983), mesmo em suas versões com as hipóteses de falta de credibilidade e informação homogeneamente defasada. Em seguida discutimos como um modelo com fairness, pode explicar este quebra cabeças. Finalmente, examinamos, três possíveis fatores (mutuamente compatíveis): a hipótese de que parte da população tenha expectativas inconsistentes, incerteza knightiana e o modelo com fairness. Nossos resultados empíricos penderam a favor de uma combinação de pelo menos uma das duas últimas alternativas com a primeira. / Using the Michigan Universitys consumer survey, we obtained data about agents expectations of both inflation and output (the latter had not been used in Roberts (1997) studies). With this, we were able to verify that a great part of the sacrifice ratios of the US stabilizations were anticipated by common agents, rejecting the Taylor (1979, 1980) and Calvo (1983) models and, with it, the hypothesis that the only reasons underlying them are staggered contracts, homogeneous sticky information and lack in credibility. WE, then, discuss how a model with fairness can explain this puzzle. Finally, we examine three (mutually consistent) factors: the hipothesis that part of the population have inconsistent expectatitons, Knightian uncertainty and te model with fairness. The results favored the combination of at least one of the two latter alternatives with te former.

O objetivo desse trabalho é, a partir de um modelo estrutural de economia aberta novokeynesiano, determinar se as flutuações econômicas no Brasil são resultados de algumas poucas fontes principais de choques ou de muitas fontes diferentes de choques bem como as respostas dinâmicas que estes geram nas flutuações econômicas, utilizando-se da análise de decomposição de erros de Cholesky. Para isso, a analise feita nesse trabalho inicia-se com a abordagem teórica do regime de metas de inflação, situando o regime dentro do novo consenso macroeconômico. Então, a abordagem empírica para o caso brasileiro é realizada estimando-se um modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) contemplando proxies que melhor representam as principais variáveis macroeconômicas brasileiras, sendo essas escolhidas a partir do estudo dos trabalhos empíricos que trataram da política monetária no Brasil em período recente. A análise dos efeitos dos choques é realizada por meio das funções de resposta ao impulso e da decomposição do erro de previsão. Os principais resultados empíricos obtidos por esse trabalho sugerem que: i) a taxa de juros se mostra como um importante instrumento para a política monetária, sendo utilizada pelo Banco Central para conter pressões sobre o hiato do produto e da inflação; ii) surpresas inflacionárias não trazem ganhos temporários em termos de um produto maior do que o nível natural; iii) a taxa de inflação mostra uma razoável persistência; iv) a taxa de inflação mostrou-se sensível a variações no câmbio. / The mean goal of this dissertation is to determine if the Brazilian output fluctuation is due to few mean sources of shocks or to several sources of shocks, using Cholesky error decomposition analysis. In order to do it, the analysis starts with a theoric approach for the inflation targeting regime, placing it into the new macroeconomic consensus. After that, the empirical approach for the Brazilian case is done by estimating an autoregressive model using proxies that best represent the mean Brazilian macroeconomic variables. These variables were chosen after a careful study of the empirical Brazilian monetary policy working papers done recently. The analysis of the shocks effects is done through both impulse-response functions and error forecast decomposition. The mean results suggest that: i) the interest rate is an important monetary policy tool and its being used by the Brazilian Central Bank in order to avoid pressures on both inflation and output gap; ii) inflation shocks does not bring gains in terms of higher product in the sort run; iii) the inflation rate has a reasonable degree of persistence; iv) the inflation rate is sensitive to exchange rate changes.

Cette thèse propose une analyse de la dynamique macroéconomique de l’économie camerounaise. On commence par une analyse quantitative générale du cycle des affaires au Cameroun, fondée sur des données macroéconomiques annuelles que nous avons nous-mêmes assemblées. Cette première exploration laisse apparaître un certain nombre de caractéristiques qui se prêtent bien à une modélisation de type néo-keynesien. Nous construisons alors un modèle dynamique stochastique d’équilibre général (DSGE) de l’économie camerounaise. Ce modèle comporte les blocs de construction de modèles DSGE néo-keynésiens standards (par exemple, la rigidité des prix et des salaires des rigidités, et des coûts d'ajustement), mais il inclut également un certain nombre de caractéristiques spécifiques (telles que l'exportation des matières premières et les revenus du pétrole entre autre) dont on montre qu’elles jouent un rôle important dans la dynamique de l'économie camerounaise. Le modèle est estimé et évalué selon une approche bayésienne. La performance du modèle DSGE en termes de prévision est comparée à celle d’un modèle de marche aléatoire, à celle d’un modèle vectoriel auto-régressif (VAR) et, enfin, à celle d’un modèle vectoriel auto-régressif de type Bayesien (BVAR). Nous trouvons que, le modèle DSGE est plus précis en matière de prévision au moins dans un horizon de court-terme. Pour ce qui est des fluctuations macroéconomiques, les chocs des prix des produits de base génèrent une expansion de la production, une augmentation de l'emploi et une baisse de l'inflation tandis que des chocs liés aux prix du pétrole ont un impact direct sur le coût marginal de production qui augmente et provoque une augmentation de l'inflation en même temps que production et emploi baissent. Notons que, les chocs extérieurs et les chocs d'offre domestiques représentent une grande part des fluctuations de la production et de l'investissement. Aussi, l'évolution de la production sur l'ensemble de l'échantillon est dominée par le choc de prix des matières premières et le choc des prix du pétrole. / This thesis aims at analyzing the macroeconomic dynamics of the Cameroonian economy. It begins with a quantitative analysis of the business cycle in Cameroon, based on annual macroeconomic data, especially gathered for this purpose. This preliminary inquiry highlights a number of features that can be accounted for in a new-keynesian modelling framework. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the new-keynesian family is thus constructed as a mean of describing the salient feautures of the Cameroonian economy. It has the traditional blocks of new-keynesian DSGE models (Sticky prices and wages, adjustment costs, etc). But it also accounts for a number of characteristics of the Cameroonian economy that are shown to be influential in the dynamics of the cameroonian economy (e.g. oil revenues or primary goods exports). The model is then estimated and evaluated, based on a Bayesian approach. Its forecasting performance is also assessed through comparison to the performances of a random walk model, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model. It turns out that, at least for short horizons, the DSGE model shows the highest perfromance. As to macroeconomic fluctuations, the estimated model suggests that commodity price shocks generate an output expansion, an increase in employment and a fall in inflation. In addition, oil price shocks have a direct impact on marginal costs which increase and provoke a rising in inflation while output and employment tend to fall. Foreign shoks and domestic supply shocks account for a large share of output and investment fluctuations. The evolution of output over the whole sample is dominated by commodity price shocks and oil price shocks as one would expect.