Stochastic solvency testing methods have existed for more than 20 years, yet there has been little research conducted in this area, particularly in Australia. This is for a number of reasons, the most pertinent of which being the lack of computing capabilities available in the past to implement more sophisticated techniques. However, recent advances in computing have made stochastic solvency testing possible in practice and have resulted in a trend towards this being done in advanced studies. ¶ The purpose of this thesis is to develop a realistic solvency testing model in a form that can be implemented by Australian Life Insurers, in anticipation that the Australian insurance regulator, APRA, will ultimately follow the world trend and require stochastic solvency testing to be carried out in Australia. The model is constructed from three interconnected stochastic sub-models used to describe the economic environment and the mortality and lapsation experience of the portfolio of policies under consideration. Australian economic and Life Insurance data is used to fit a number of possible sub-models, such as generalised linear models, over-dispersion models and asset models, and the ``best'' model is selected in each case. The selected models are a modified CAS/SOA economic sub-model; either a Poisson or negative binomial (NB1) distribution (depending on the policy type considered) as the mortality sub-model; and a normal-Poisson lapsation sub-model. ¶ Based on tests carried out using this model, it is demonstrated that, for portfolios of level and yearly-renewable term insurance business, the current deterministic solvency capital requirements provide little protection against insolvency. In fact, for the test portfolios of term insurance policies considered, the deterministic capital requirements have levels of sufficiency of less than 2% (on a Value at Risk basis) when compared to the change in capital distribution over a three year time horizon. This is of concern, as yearly-renewable term insurance comprises a significant volume of Life Insurance business in Australia, with there being over 426,000 yearly-renewable term insurance policies on the books of Australian Life Insurers in 1999 and more business expected since then. ¶ A sensitivity analysis shows that the results of the stochastic asset requirement calculations are sensitive to the choice of sub-model used to forecast economic variables and to the choice of formulae used to describe the mean mortality and lapsation rates. The implication of this is that, if APRA were to require Life Insurers to calculate their solvency capital requirements on a stochastic basis, some guidance would need to be provided regarding the components of the solvency testing model used. The model is not, however, sensitive to whether an allowance is made for mortality or lapsation rate over-dispersion, nor to whether dependency relationships between mortality rates, lapsation rates and the economy are allowed for. Thus, over-dispersion and dependency relationships between the sub-models can be ignored in a stochastic solvency testing model without significantly impacting the calculated solvency requirements.

本篇論文目的在檢視壽險業資本結構的影響因素，樣本為美國壽險公司。金融及保險市場的特殊性質會造成保險公司有動機去調整控制資本結構與資產風險，以維持公司失卻清償能力的風險在適當的範圍內。我們的實證結果中顯示槓桿比率與資產風險的負向關係的確存在於美國壽險業當中。 此外，一般公司資本結構理論中的公司大小、代理問題皆顯示對壽險公司的資本結構造成影響；公司的評比對公司的槓桿比率有顯著影響；使用獨立代理人銷售業務的公司有較高的槓桿比率與風險；實證結果亦顯示壽險公司的資產風險與投資的集中度及經營險種的集中度有正相關，意味著資產風險可以透過分散投資與險種多樣化的方式來分散降低。 / This study examines the capital structure determinants of life insurance companies in U.S. The decision of capital structure in insurance industry should be a joint decision of capital structure and firm risk. Insurers have incentive to keep firm risk within a safe range, due to the special features in the insurance markets. We find evidence supporting the negative relationship between leverage ratio and firm risk, suggesting that insurers will balance risk and leverage to keep the insolvency risk within a desired range. In addition, general capital structure theories such as size and agency theory are significant in our empirical result. Rating is shown a significant factor of capital structure in life insurance industry. Evidence suggests the independent agents have less incentive to monitor insurers. Firm risk is also shown significant relationship with undiversified investments and concentrated business line, which suggests that life insurers can reduce firm risk by diversifying investment risk and business risk.

有鑑於投資活動對壽險公司的重要性，本研究的目的，主要是由壽險業的經營特性中，經由瞭解其各個別公司在不同的條件限制下，分析其投資策略與績效之狀況，以做為投資策略制定的參考。 　　本研究係針業台灣人壽保險業，以個案訪問的方式分析產業內廠商之投資策略。再輔以經營績效的次級資料，探討兩者的關係。投資策略的策略變數包括：投資目標、投資組合、影響投資的因素以及策略決策過程；經營績效的變數包括：聯合率、市場佔有率、保單繼續率、淨利率、投資收益率。 　　研究結論如下：在投資策略方面：1.在投資部門組織方面，資金規模會影響投資部門的人力，投資組合中比例較重的項目，人力的配置也較多。2.各家公司的投資目標不外乎是獲利性、安全性和變現性，至於公益性甚少被考量。3.保險公司的投資目標是在公司之財力及承擔風險能力範圍內，在法令之規定及政府監督下，獲取最高之長期稅後投資收益。4.各壽險公司的投資組合因投資目標的不同而異。5.影響投資策略因素可以分為投資環境、公司本身條件以及外在目標限制，壽險公司在決定投資決策之前必須先行對這些項目對評估。6.中小型的壽險公司因為投資業務較少，投資部門人員也比較精簡，所以在投資決策的過程充分發揮彈性。在投資策略與經營績效之研究方面：1.精確計算現金流量，根據資產、負債的性質做好資產負債管理，可以使壽險公司在兼顧流動性、安全性之下，求取最大的投資報酬率。2.投資高風險的投資工具，不一定能帶來高報酬，但是波動性一定很大，造成投資報酬率、淨利率時好時壞。3.資金規模不一定會影響投資報酬率，資金少的壽險公司也可以運用期間分析、資產負債管理的方法來降低風險、增加報酬率。4.正確的投資策略可以提高投資收益，進而增加淨利率。同時公司可以將獲利反映在保費上，使價格更具有競爭性，以提高新契約佔有率進一步擴大市場佔有率。保費的優惠也會留住舊客戶，提高保單繼續率。另一方面，公司可以增加資本支出，投資新的資源設備，對於提昇商品設計、精算、核保、理賠、服務和投資的品質有正面的幫助。行政效率的提高，可以使損失率、費用率下降。可見投資策略影響投資績效、投資績效會進一步影響經營績效。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 研究範圍 3 第三節 論文結構 3 第四節 研究限制 4 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 壽險業投資活動概述 5 第二節 壽險業投資特性 9 第三節 壽險業投資策略及影響因素 15 第四節 壽險業投資策略形成與投資決策程序 22 第五節 壽險業投資策略與經營績效 26 第三章 產業研究 31 第一節 產業介紹 31 第二節 產業分析 37 第三節 壽險業投資活動概況 56 第四章 研究設計 67 第一節 研究架構 67 第二節 研究方法 68 第三節 究研變數 69 第五章 壽險公司投資策略個案研究 73 第一節 甲人壽保險公司 73 第二節 乙人壽保險公司 80 第三節 丙人壽保險公司 87 第四節 丁人壽保險公司 95 第六章 個案分析與討論 102 第一節 投資策略比較 102 第二節 經營績效比較 109 第七章 結論與建議 117 第一節 研究結論 117 第二節 對壽險業的建議 119 第三節 對後續研究之建議 120 參考文獻 121

<p>Background: The Swedish life-insurance business has been extensively criticised lately due to broken promises to customers as well as due to scandals that some companies within the business have been involved in. The companies within the Swedish life-insurance business find themselves in a so- called crisis of confidence, something that is created in and by media. A company that finds itself in a crisis of confidence somehow have to manage the situation and crises of confidence can also result in different kinds of changes. </p><p>Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to explore and analyse how individual life- insurance companies manage crises of confidence. As a consequence, the aim is also to investigate in what way crises of confidence are initiators to change. </p><p>Procedure: The study has been conducted through seven qualitative interviews with individuals holding a managerial position within a Swedish life-insurance company. </p><p>Findings: Essential for managing crises of confidence is communication and information mainly to media, but also to customers and employees. Further, a higher level of clarity and transparency in products and activities, together with increased control of ethical policies, are aspects that have been shown to be of importance in managing the crisis of confidence within the Swedish life- insurance business. The crisis of confidence has generated changes, but it can not be decided with certainty if these changes have been initiated only by the crisis of confidence, or if the changes would have been carried through anyway. What can be established, is that the crisis of confidence has speeded up already planned changes.</p>

<p>Background: The Swedish life-insurance business has been extensively criticised lately due to broken promises to customers as well as due to scandals that some companies within the business have been involved in. The companies within the Swedish life-insurance business find themselves in a so- called crisis of confidence, something that is created in and by media. A company that finds itself in a crisis of confidence somehow have to manage the situation and crises of confidence can also result in different kinds of changes. </p><p>Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to explore and analyse how individual life- insurance companies manage crises of confidence. As a consequence, the aim is also to investigate in what way crises of confidence are initiators to change. </p><p>Procedure: The study has been conducted through seven qualitative interviews with individuals holding a managerial position within a Swedish life-insurance company. </p><p>Findings: Essential for managing crises of confidence is communication and information mainly to media, but also to customers and employees. Further, a higher level of clarity and transparency in products and activities, together with increased control of ethical policies, are aspects that have been shown to be of importance in managing the crisis of confidence within the Swedish life- insurance business. The crisis of confidence has generated changes, but it can not be decided with certainty if these changes have been initiated only by the crisis of confidence, or if the changes would have been carried through anyway. What can be established, is that the crisis of confidence has speeded up already planned changes.</p>

Background: The Swedish life-insurance business has been extensively criticised lately due to broken promises to customers as well as due to scandals that some companies within the business have been involved in. The companies within the Swedish life-insurance business find themselves in a so- called crisis of confidence, something that is created in and by media. A company that finds itself in a crisis of confidence somehow have to manage the situation and crises of confidence can also result in different kinds of changes. Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to explore and analyse how individual life- insurance companies manage crises of confidence. As a consequence, the aim is also to investigate in what way crises of confidence are initiators to change. Procedure: The study has been conducted through seven qualitative interviews with individuals holding a managerial position within a Swedish life-insurance company. Findings: Essential for managing crises of confidence is communication and information mainly to media, but also to customers and employees. Further, a higher level of clarity and transparency in products and activities, together with increased control of ethical policies, are aspects that have been shown to be of importance in managing the crisis of confidence within the Swedish life- insurance business. The crisis of confidence has generated changes, but it can not be decided with certainty if these changes have been initiated only by the crisis of confidence, or if the changes would have been carried through anyway. What can be established, is that the crisis of confidence has speeded up already planned changes.

Background: The Swedish life-insurance business has been extensively criticised lately due to broken promises to customers as well as due to scandals that some companies within the business have been involved in. The companies within the Swedish life-insurance business find themselves in a so- called crisis of confidence, something that is created in and by media. A company that finds itself in a crisis of confidence somehow have to manage the situation and crises of confidence can also result in different kinds of changes. Purpose: The aim of this thesis is to explore and analyse how individual life- insurance companies manage crises of confidence. As a consequence, the aim is also to investigate in what way crises of confidence are initiators to change. Procedure: The study has been conducted through seven qualitative interviews with individuals holding a managerial position within a Swedish life-insurance company. Findings: Essential for managing crises of confidence is communication and information mainly to media, but also to customers and employees. Further, a higher level of clarity and transparency in products and activities, together with increased control of ethical policies, are aspects that have been shown to be of importance in managing the crisis of confidence within the Swedish life- insurance business. The crisis of confidence has generated changes, but it can not be decided with certainty if these changes have been initiated only by the crisis of confidence, or if the changes would have been carried through anyway. What can be established, is that the crisis of confidence has speeded up already planned changes.

My dissertation involves a critique of the concept of life or seimei as it emerged in modern use during the Meiji era (1868-1912). Specifically, I have outlined the conditions of possibility for thinking seimei at particular moments in the development of the modern, market-centered Japanese nation-state in historical and literary terms such that I can begin to use these conditions to think its impossibilities. In short, I argue that a central condition of possibility for thinking life in its modern, historical form is a process of individuation that takes hold of and shapes bodies at an ontological level. By critiquing life and its ontology of individuation, I unearth the traces of an impossible “apriori collectivism” - that is, a collectivism not merely reducible to a congregation of individuals, but originally collective – buried under the calls for individual freedom, self-help, and industrialization that were at the heart of the Meiji era’s modernization project. I track this apriori collectivism in a lineage relating (through non-relation) the mutual aid societies or mujin-kô of the Edo period to the life insurance industry of the Meiji 10s and 20s. I then use this material history of life as backdrop to my study of the literary trends in the latter decades of the Meiji era, and end with a consideration of the political and aesthetic implications seimei has for thought by taking up a study of Iwano Hômei’s Shinpiteki hanjûshugi (Mystical Demi-animalism).

In this study a methodological approach is presented on how transactions in the secondary market for life insurance policies can be fairly priced for both policyholders and life settlement companies. Monte Carlo simulation of mortality on a pool constructed based on actual data of 85 life settlement transactions shows that a realistic assumption for the range of offered prices is limited to 15% and 20% of the face amount of the policy, given a required return of 7%. The power of the proffered pricing approach is ensured by assessing and managing mortality risk along with the other pertinent risks using stress testing, where mortality risk appears to be analogous to some extent with systematic risk on other markets of assets.

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