Human-induced climate change alters global weather patterns, increasing the frequency and severity of droughts. Acting as drivers of land degradation, droughts negatively impact the environment, exacerbating food and water insecurity and threatening livelihoods. However, the complex relationship between drought events and subsequent changes in land cover on a global scale remain insufficiently explored, necessitating further research. This study aims to address this research gap by examining the correlation between global drought events and land cover changes, while also exploring variations between countries' different levels of economic development.  To accomplish this, global precipitation data and the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) were employed to identify areas affected by drought, followed by an analysis of changes in land cover within these regions. Utilising the capabilities of Google Earth Engine (GEE) allowed for the evaluation of the relationship between drought events and land cover change.  The findings revealed a correlation between drought events and changes in land cover, with variations observed across different world regions. These results were strengthened by the comparison of land cover changes in non-drought areas. When examining trends regarding types of land cover alterations, it appears that Tree cover, as well as Shrub-, and Grassland, has reduced in regions impacted by drought. Conversely, increases are observed in Cropland and Urban areas. When assessing countries based on economic development, the overall trends were consistent with the global results, although with variations between Advanced Economies and Emerging-, and Developing Economies.  Overall, this study acknowledges drought as a driver of land cover change, while also emphasising the influence of other factors such as anthropogenic activities. These findings offer insights into the complex interactions between droughts and terrestrial ecosystems, and emphasises the importance of strategies for sustainable land management and adaptation efforts, globally. / Människans påverkan på klimatet förändrar globala vädermönster och ökar både frekvensen och omfattningen av torka. Torka orsakar förändringar i markanvändning, påverkar miljön negativt, leder till bristande tillgång på livsmedel och vatten samt hotar möjligheter till försörjning. Det komplexa sambandet mellan torka och markanvändningsförändringar på global nivå är i stort sett outforskat och kräver därför ytterligare forskning. Denna studie syftar till att fylla detta kunskapsgap genom att undersöka sambandet mellan globala perioder av torka och markanvändningsförändringar, samt hur faktorer såsom ekonomisk utveckling påverkar markförändringar.  Detta uppnåddes genom att använda global nederbördsdata och 12-månaders ‘Standardized Precipitation Index’ (SPI-12). Områden som har påverkats av torka identifierades, varpå en analys av markanvändningsförändringar inom dessa områden utfördes. Analysen gjordes med hjälp av det geospatiala analysverktyget Google Earth Engine (GEE).  Resultatet visade på en korrelation mellan torka och markanvändningsförändringar, samtidigt som regionala variationer observerades. Detta samband förstärktes genom att undersöka korrelationen mellan markanvändningsförändringar inom områden ej utsatta för torka. Gällande trender i typer av markanvändningsförändringar verkar trädbevuxna områden samt busk- och gräsmark ha minskat i regioner påverkade av torka. Åkermark och urbana områden verkar däremot ha ökat. Vid bedömning av länder baserat på ekonomisk utveckling var de övergripande trenderna i linje med de globala resultaten, även om variationer noterades mellan avancerade ekonomier och tillväxt- och utvecklingsekonomier.  Sammanfattningsvis identifierar denna studie torka som en drivkraft för förändringar i markanvändning, samtidigt som den betonar betydelsen av mänskliga aktiviteter. Dessa resultat ger insikt i de komplexa interaktionerna mellan torka och terrestra ekosystem, samt understryker vikten av strategier för hållbar markförvaltning och anpassning insatser på global nivå.

Water quantity, availability and, particularly, quality of Brazilian freshwater is under progessive degradation due to Anthropocene\'s environmental changing conditions. Strategies of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) are essential to mitigate these impacts. This Ph.D. thesis proposes a new model of water resources management, thereby integrating selfpurification and ecohydrologic processes to evaluate ecosystem services from watershed under change. In Chapter 2, this thesis examinates the payment for hydrologic cosystem services (Water-PES) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest and points ecohydrologic variables useful for assessing and further valuing hydrologic services. In Chapter 3, this thesis discusses proposals for freshwater monitoring plan which integrate quali-quantitative aspects for EbA and Water-PES projects. Therefore, in Chapter 4 experimental quali-quantative freshwater data from in-situ field observations are investigated according land-use/land-cover (LULC) in headwaters of water supply systems. In Chapter 5, through simulated impacts on freshwater yield from scenarios of LULC change, the grey water footprint (greyWF) is assessed, as well as environmental sustainability of sub-basins is depicted from a new ecohydrologic index for assessing hydrologic services. The methodology is performed using through field sampling and lab-analysing of physico-chemical, biologic and hydraulic variables in nested sub-basins draining to the Cantareira Water Supply System, in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, Brazil. These areas participate in the Water-PES projects Water Producer/PCJ and Water Conservator at headwaters of Piracicaba watershed, during recent severe drought conditions between years 2013-15. The greyWF is estimated from outputs of time series simulated through ecohydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under assumption of continuity of Water-PES projects, and using the same series of hydrometorological records for a common period (2008-2014), freshwater quali-quantitative impacts are performed through three LULC scenarios: past situation \"S1\" (year 1990), current situation \"S2\" (year 2010) and future situation \"S2+EbA\" (year 2035). From these scenarios, flow and load duration curves, mean water yields, greyWF and seasonal variabilities, were simulated. Through this research, continuous-monitoring Data Collecting Stations were installed in public-private partnership encompassing EESC/USP, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC, WWF and local mayors. This continuous monitoring is addressed to increase the system resilience, based on better decision-making for water security, in strategic headwaters not only for water supply, but also for environmental conservation. This doctoral thesis brings contributions to a better comprehension of anthropic impacts on water resources and for strategies of EbA in front of progressive rates of losses of ecosystem services. This PhD. thesis was part of three research initiatives which partly granted activities: (1) Thematic Project FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP Núcleo de Apoio às Pesquisas em Mudanças Climáticas) and (3) \"Água Brasil\" Project, Banco do Brasil Foundation, WWF Brazil, ANA & FIPAI/EESC-USP. / A quantidade, a disponibilidade e, em particular, a qualidade da água doce está em degradação progressiva devido às mudanças ambientais no Antropoceno. Estratégias de adaptação baseadas em ecossistemas (EbA) são essenciais para reduzir estes impactos. Propõe-se um novo modelo de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos que integre a pegada hídrica cinza e processos ecohidrológicos para avaliação dos serviços hidrológicos em bacias hidrográficas sob mudanças. As etapas da pesquisa são: Capítulo 2 – análise dos projetos de pagamentos por serviços ambientais de proteção às bacias hidrográficas na Mata Atlântica brasileira e, no contexto de EbA, indicação de variáveis ecohidrológicas úteis na quantificação e futura valoração dos serviços hidrológicos; Capítulo 3 – desenvolvimento de plano de monitoramento ecohidrológico que integra aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos dos recursos hídricos para projetos de EbA; Capítulo 4 – provisão de dados experimentais de qualidade e quantidade da água, além de observações in-situ, para investigação das influências das mudanças de uso e ocupação do solo nas cabeceiras de mananciais, estratégicos para o abastecimento público e a conservação ambiental; Capítulo 5 – estimativas da pegada hídrica cinza para nitrato, fósforo total e sedimentos a partir do monitoramento de variáveis quali-quantitativas em bacias com diferentes condições de uso e ocupação de solo. Foi realizada a instalação de três Plataformas de Coleta de Dados, por meio de parceria entre EESC, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC e WWF, visando aumentar a resiliência do sistema, decorrente de futuro aprimoramento da gestão, para a segurança hídrica. A metodologia incluiu coletas em seis diferentes períodos, durante dois anos, e análises das variáveis condutividade elétrica, cor, DQO, DBO5,20, nitrato, nitrito, nitrogênio amoniacal, fosfato, pH, turbidez, sólidos totais, coliformes termotolerantes, Escherichia coli, medidas de vazões e velocidades médias em seções transversais. O método foi aplicado em microbacias participantes dos projetos Produtor de Água/PCJ e Conservador das Águas, dentre outras, com áreas de drenagem entre 7 e 1.000 km2, que contribuem para a bacia do rio Piracicaba (12.530 km2). Dados primários, medidos em recente período de severa estiagem no Sistema Cantareira (2013-14), foram integrados aos bancos de dados de órgãos gestores federais e estaduais. A produção de água foi maior em sub-bacias menos florestadas. Foi possível aprimorar a regionalização de cargas poluidoras por área de drenagem na região do Cantareira. A pegada hídrica cinza (WF) foi estimada a partir de simulações no modelo ecohidrológico Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Curvas de permanência de vazões e carga poluidora por área de drenagem foram elaboradas. Supondo-se a continuidade dos projetos \"Produtor de Água/PCJ\" e \"Conservador das Águas\", foram investigados os impactos de cenário futuro de uso do solo. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido novo índice ecohidrológico para quantificação dos serviços hidrológicos e avaliação a sustentabilidade das sub-bacias, a partir da pegada hídrica cinza composta. Assim, usando ferramentas de vanguarda tecnológica (SWAT e WF), a tese fornece subsídios para uma melhor compreensão dos impactos antropogênicos sobre os recursos hídricos e novas estratégias de adaptação baseada em ecossistemas, frente às progressivas taxas de perda de serviços ambientais. Esta tese esteve vinculada a três projetos de pesquisa, dos quais obteve apoio financeiro: (1) Projeto Temático FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil & Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP) e (3) Projeto \"Água Brasil\", Fundação Banco do Brasil, WWF Brasil, ANA e FIPAI/EESC-USP.

Water quantity, availability and, particularly, quality of Brazilian freshwater is under progessive degradation due to Anthropocene\'s environmental changing conditions. Strategies of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) are essential to mitigate these impacts. This Ph.D. thesis proposes a new model of water resources management, thereby integrating selfpurification and ecohydrologic processes to evaluate ecosystem services from watershed under change. In Chapter 2, this thesis examinates the payment for hydrologic cosystem services (Water-PES) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest and points ecohydrologic variables useful for assessing and further valuing hydrologic services. In Chapter 3, this thesis discusses proposals for freshwater monitoring plan which integrate quali-quantitative aspects for EbA and Water-PES projects. Therefore, in Chapter 4 experimental quali-quantative freshwater data from in-situ field observations are investigated according land-use/land-cover (LULC) in headwaters of water supply systems. In Chapter 5, through simulated impacts on freshwater yield from scenarios of LULC change, the grey water footprint (greyWF) is assessed, as well as environmental sustainability of sub-basins is depicted from a new ecohydrologic index for assessing hydrologic services. The methodology is performed using through field sampling and lab-analysing of physico-chemical, biologic and hydraulic variables in nested sub-basins draining to the Cantareira Water Supply System, in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, Brazil. These areas participate in the Water-PES projects Water Producer/PCJ and Water Conservator at headwaters of Piracicaba watershed, during recent severe drought conditions between years 2013-15. The greyWF is estimated from outputs of time series simulated through ecohydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under assumption of continuity of Water-PES projects, and using the same series of hydrometorological records for a common period (2008-2014), freshwater quali-quantitative impacts are performed through three LULC scenarios: past situation \"S1\" (year 1990), current situation \"S2\" (year 2010) and future situation \"S2+EbA\" (year 2035). From these scenarios, flow and load duration curves, mean water yields, greyWF and seasonal variabilities, were simulated. Through this research, continuous-monitoring Data Collecting Stations were installed in public-private partnership encompassing EESC/USP, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC, WWF and local mayors. This continuous monitoring is addressed to increase the system resilience, based on better decision-making for water security, in strategic headwaters not only for water supply, but also for environmental conservation. This doctoral thesis brings contributions to a better comprehension of anthropic impacts on water resources and for strategies of EbA in front of progressive rates of losses of ecosystem services. This PhD. thesis was part of three research initiatives which partly granted activities: (1) Thematic Project FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP Núcleo de Apoio às Pesquisas em Mudanças Climáticas) and (3) \"Água Brasil\" Project, Banco do Brasil Foundation, WWF Brazil, ANA & FIPAI/EESC-USP. / A quantidade, a disponibilidade e, em particular, a qualidade da água doce está em degradação progressiva devido às mudanças ambientais no Antropoceno. Estratégias de adaptação baseadas em ecossistemas (EbA) são essenciais para reduzir estes impactos. Propõe-se um novo modelo de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos que integre a pegada hídrica cinza e processos ecohidrológicos para avaliação dos serviços hidrológicos em bacias hidrográficas sob mudanças. As etapas da pesquisa são: Capítulo 2 – análise dos projetos de pagamentos por serviços ambientais de proteção às bacias hidrográficas na Mata Atlântica brasileira e, no contexto de EbA, indicação de variáveis ecohidrológicas úteis na quantificação e futura valoração dos serviços hidrológicos; Capítulo 3 – desenvolvimento de plano de monitoramento ecohidrológico que integra aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos dos recursos hídricos para projetos de EbA; Capítulo 4 – provisão de dados experimentais de qualidade e quantidade da água, além de observações in-situ, para investigação das influências das mudanças de uso e ocupação do solo nas cabeceiras de mananciais, estratégicos para o abastecimento público e a conservação ambiental; Capítulo 5 – estimativas da pegada hídrica cinza para nitrato, fósforo total e sedimentos a partir do monitoramento de variáveis quali-quantitativas em bacias com diferentes condições de uso e ocupação de solo. Foi realizada a instalação de três Plataformas de Coleta de Dados, por meio de parceria entre EESC, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC e WWF, visando aumentar a resiliência do sistema, decorrente de futuro aprimoramento da gestão, para a segurança hídrica. A metodologia incluiu coletas em seis diferentes períodos, durante dois anos, e análises das variáveis condutividade elétrica, cor, DQO, DBO5,20, nitrato, nitrito, nitrogênio amoniacal, fosfato, pH, turbidez, sólidos totais, coliformes termotolerantes, Escherichia coli, medidas de vazões e velocidades médias em seções transversais. O método foi aplicado em microbacias participantes dos projetos Produtor de Água/PCJ e Conservador das Águas, dentre outras, com áreas de drenagem entre 7 e 1.000 km2, que contribuem para a bacia do rio Piracicaba (12.530 km2). Dados primários, medidos em recente período de severa estiagem no Sistema Cantareira (2013-14), foram integrados aos bancos de dados de órgãos gestores federais e estaduais. A produção de água foi maior em sub-bacias menos florestadas. Foi possível aprimorar a regionalização de cargas poluidoras por área de drenagem na região do Cantareira. A pegada hídrica cinza (WF) foi estimada a partir de simulações no modelo ecohidrológico Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Curvas de permanência de vazões e carga poluidora por área de drenagem foram elaboradas. Supondo-se a continuidade dos projetos \"Produtor de Água/PCJ\" e \"Conservador das Águas\", foram investigados os impactos de cenário futuro de uso do solo. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido novo índice ecohidrológico para quantificação dos serviços hidrológicos e avaliação a sustentabilidade das sub-bacias, a partir da pegada hídrica cinza composta. Assim, usando ferramentas de vanguarda tecnológica (SWAT e WF), a tese fornece subsídios para uma melhor compreensão dos impactos antropogênicos sobre os recursos hídricos e novas estratégias de adaptação baseada em ecossistemas, frente às progressivas taxas de perda de serviços ambientais. Esta tese esteve vinculada a três projetos de pesquisa, dos quais obteve apoio financeiro: (1) Projeto Temático FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil & Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP) e (3) Projeto \"Água Brasil\", Fundação Banco do Brasil, WWF Brasil, ANA e FIPAI/EESC-USP.

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-14T10:58:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EWERTON CLEUDSON DE SOUSA MELO - TESE (PPGMet) 2016.pdf: 4714414 bytes, checksum: 399def91bcd71b3e8a00a6b001dcfd4b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-14T10:58:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EWERTON CLEUDSON DE SOUSA MELO - TESE (PPGMet) 2016.pdf: 4714414 bytes, checksum: 399def91bcd71b3e8a00a6b001dcfd4b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-30 / CNPq / Neste trabalho a versão 6.0 do modelo numérico RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) é usada com o objetivo principal de simular a influência da expansão agrícola nas trocas de água e energia em áreas de Caatinga, e quantificar os efeitos das mudanças na cobertura e uso da terra na geração de circulações termicamente induzidas e na atividade convectiva. Os cenários de uso da terra investigados neste estudo foram construídos para representar condições ambientais nativas (sem influências antrópicas), e com alterações decorrentes da construção da represa de Sobradinho, e da expansão de atividades agrícolas e irrigação em região de clima semiárido. O ambiente atmosférico de grande escala é caracterizado pela estrutura dinâmica e termodinâmica típica da área central de um vórtice ciclônico de altos níveis (VCAN). A escolha do período de estudo teve como objetivo garantir condições ambientais com ampla diversidade agrícola em áreas de Caatinga (culturas de sequeiro e agricultura irrigada), e pouca nebulosidade. A evolução temporal da precipitação convectiva acumulada nas simulações da expansão agrícola mostra diferenças marcantes nos efeitos da agricultura de sequeiro e vegetação irrigada. O aumento na taxa da evapotranspiração nas áreas irrigadas eleva consideravelmente o teor de umidade nos baixos níveis da troposfera, reduz a temperatura do ar e diminui a precipitação convectiva. A descontinuidade na umidade e tipo de cobertura vegetal modifica a intensidade e distribuição dos fluxos turbulentos que são importantes na formação dos gradientes de pressão que geram circulações de brisa (brisa lacustre e de vegetação), de forma que o domínio nos transportes verticais de calor e água passa a ser da mesoescala. Verificou-se que as principais forçantes locais na determinação da distribuição espacial dos fluxos turbulentos e da chuva convectiva foram a topografia e a descontinuidade no teor de umidade do solo. Com relação a estabilidade atmosférica percebeu-se a existência de uma relação quase linear entre a Energia Potencial Convectiva Disponível (CAPE) e a temperatura potencial equivalente. / In this work the version 6.0 of the numerical model RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) is used with the main objective of simulating the influence of agricultural expansion on the water and energy exchange in Caatinga vegetation areas, and to quantify the effects that changes on soil use and coverage have on the generation of thermally induced circulations and convective activity. The scenarios of soil use investigated are designed to represent native environmental conditions (without anthropogenic influences) and with alterations due to the implementation of the Sobradinho reservoir, and the expansion of agricultural activities and irrigation in a semiarid climate area. The large scale atmospheric ambient is characterized by the dynamic and thermodynamic structure typical of the central area of an upper level cyclonic vortex. The period of study was chosen aiming at environmental conditions with largely diversified agricultural use in Caatinga vegetation areas (agriculture with and without irrigation), and almost cloudless skies. The temporal evolution of the accumulated convective precipitation in the numerical simulations of the agricultural expansion shows large differences in the effects of agriculture with and without irrigation. The irrigated areas higher evapotranspiration rate causes a substantial increase in the moisture content in the lower troposphere, and lower the air temperature and convective precipitation.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-07-29T16:23:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Ricardo Dobrovolski.pdf: 1981880 bytes, checksum: 8c60352c3d999171ab957f065b32a9db (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-10 / Agriculture is the human activity with the greatest impact on the environment. Specifically, it represents the greatest threat to biodiversity. In the future, this activity should expand due to population growth, increased consumption and production of biofuels from food. To understand the possible impacts of this expansion on biodiversity, we used scenarios of land use change between 1970 and 2100 from IMAGE (Integrated Model to Access Global Environment) to test the following hypotheses: (i) areas considered as global priorities for conservation by international NGOs will be preferentially impacted by agricultural expansion in the XXI century, (ii) there is a conflict between the priority areas for carnivores conservation and agricultural expansion, and this conflict can be reduced by incorporating information on agricultural expansion in the prioritization process, (iii) the integration among countries for conservation planning may benefit both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, (iv) Brazilian protected areas will be impacted by agricultural expansion in the future and this impact will differ between protected areas of integral protection and those of sustainable use. We found that: (i) the impact on priority areas for conservation depends on the criteria by which they were set, so that areas defined by its high vulnerability are currently most affected than those of low vulnerability. Throughout the XXI century this impact is expected to increase, although the difference between the two types of priorities remains, except for High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, defined by their low vulnerability in current time, but for which most pessimistic scenarios forecast an impact similar to priority areas of high vulnerability, (ii) there is a high spatial congruence between areas with high agricultural use in the future and priority areas for conservation of carnivores. This conflict can be reduced if the prioritization process include information on agricultural expansion; this incorporation, however, causes a profound change in the distribution of priority areas and reduces the number of protected carnivore populations, (iii) the integration of countries to create a set of priority areas for conservation that represents 17% of the land surface can protect 19% more mammal populations without reducing food production, compared to a strategy in which each country seeks to protect its territory independently, and (iv) the impact of agriculture in Brazil is expected to increase until the end of the century, threatening even the protected areas and their surroundings. This impact, however, should not be different between areas of sustainable use and those of integral protection. We conclude that agricultural expansion should remain a major threat to biodiversity in the future, even in areas of special interest for conservation. Conservation actions should be planned taking into account this threat in order to reduce their potential impacts. For this, countries like Brazil should strengthen its surveillance on agricultural expansion and on how this activity is developed. Furthermore, the integration of international conservation efforts should be pursued, given its benefits for biodiversity and food production. Finally, humanity must choose methods of agricultural production that reduce its impacts, including avoiding its future expansion, so as to meet the increasing needs of a human population globally. / A agricultura é a atividade humana com maior impacto sobre o ambiente. Particularmente, ela representa a maior ameaça à biodiversidade. No futuro, essa atividade deve expandir-se com o aumento populacional humano, o aumento do consumo e a produção de biocombustíveis a partir dos alimentos. Para entender os possíveis impactos dessa expansão sobre a biodiversidade, nós utilizamos cenários de mudança de uso do solo entre 2000 e 2100 do IMAGE (Integrated Model to Access Global Environment) para testar as seguintes hipóteses: (i) as áreas consideradas como prioridades globais de conservação pelas ONGs internacionais serão preferencialmente impactadas pela expansão agrícola no século XXI; (ii) há um conflito entre áreas prioritárias para a conservação de carnívoros e a expansão agrícola e esse conflito pode ser reduzido com a incorporação da informação sobre expansão agrícola no processo de priorização; (iii) a integração entre os países para o planejamento da conservação pode ser favorável à proteção da biodiversidade e à produção agrícola; (iv) no Brasil, as áreas protegidas serão impactadas pela expansão agrícola no futuro e esse impacto será diferente entre áreas de proteção integral e áreas de uso sustentável. Nós encontramos os seguintes resultados: (i) o impacto sobre as áreas prioritárias para a conservação depende dos critérios pelos quais elas foram definidas, assim, as áreas definidas por sua alta vulnerabilidade estão atualmente mais impactadas do que áreas de baixa vulnerabilidade. Ao longo do século XXI, o impacto geral da agricultura deve aumentar, mas a diferença entre os dois tipos de prioridades se mantém, exceto para as High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas, definidas por sua baixa vulnerabilidade, mas que nos cenários mais pessimistas podem ter um impacto agrícola semelhante ao das áreas de alta vulnerabilidade; (ii) há uma alta congruência espacial entre áreas com elevado uso agrícola no futuro e áreas prioritárias para a conservação de carnívoros; esse conflito pode ser reduzido se o processo de priorização incluir as informações sobre a expansão agrícola; a incorporação dessa informação, entretanto, provoca uma profunda alteração na distribuição das áreas prioritárias e reduz o número de populações de carnívoros protegidas; (iii) a integração entre os países para a criação de um conjunto de áreas prioritárias para conservação que represente 17% da superfície terrestre pode proteger 19% mais populações de mamíferos sem reduzir a produção de alimentos, se comparada a uma estratégia em que cada país busque proteger seu território independentemente; (iv) o impacto da agricultura no Brasil deve aumentar até o fim do século XXI, ameaçando inclusive as áreas protegidas e o seu entorno. Esse impacto, porém, não deve ser diferente entre as áreas de uso sustentável e aquelas de proteção integral. Assim, a expansão agrícola deve continuar a ser uma importante ameaça à biodiversidade no futuro, atingindo inclusive áreas de especial interesse para a conservação. As ações de conservação devem ser planejadas levando em consideração essa ameaça, a fim de reduzir seus impactos potenciais. Para isso, países como o Brasil devem reforçar sua vigilância sobre a expansão agrícola e a maneira como essa atividade é desenvolvida. Além disso, a integração internacional dos esforços de conservação deve ser buscada, dados seus benefícios para a biodiversidade e para a produção de alimentos. E por fim, a humanidade deve optar por formas de produção agrícola que reduzam seus impactos, inclusive evitando sua expansão futura, mas que possam satisfazer as necessidades da população humana globalmente.

Since human beings began to use and shape the land, their influence on their<p>environment has kept on growing so that little or no ecosystem in the world is now<p>considered as untouched. This induces pressures on ecosystem health and land scarcity.<p>Africa is of particular concern because it still presents broad undisturbed zones and<p>key ecosystem services, despite being submitted to increasing anthropogenic pressures.<p>Landscape ecology appears suitable for the study of such phenomena, thanks to its spacebased<p>integrative nature and geographical level of focus. It studies the impact of spatial<p>pattern transformation — especially heterogeneity and its components — on ecological<p>processes and provides powerful analytical tools of landscape anthropisation.<p>The main objective of this thesis is to organise the concepts and methods, from<p>landscape ecology and related disciplines, into a consistent logic, to pinpoint missing<p>analytical frameworks for response-oriented anthropisation assessment, and to apply them<p>to African cases to explore the spatial patterns of anthropisation. In order to address<p>landscape anthropisation, we assemble diverse disciplines into a logical network (DPSIR).<p>The new theoretical framework is tested on Lubumbashi (DRC). In order to address<p>spatial patterns, we first evaluate the thermodynamic connection of the term entropy in<p>landscape ecology: spatial heterogeneity, unpredictability and scale influence. Then, based<p>on 20 landscapes, we highlight the complex relationship between spatial heterogeneity<p>and landscape anthropisation. We finally use the modelled relationships to test the<p>anthropogenic origin of the spatial pattern of a land cover class in Lubumbashi.<p>The main results of this research show that several concepts are used to describe different<p>aspects of anthropisation and that its quantification strongly depends on the reference states.<p>Data formats can be combined into a new assessment method ensuring more precision<p>and comparability, but a good field knowledge is required. As for heterogeneity, the<p>existing definitions of landscape entropy follow the logic of thermodynamics or information<p>theory, that are not compatible. Only unpredictability could be properly interpreted in<p>thermodynamic terms if energy transfer measurements were performed at the appropriate<p>level. The anthropogenic effects on heterogeneity completely diverge depending on the<p>amount of already anthropised surface, on the land cover type (natural or anthropogenic),<p>and on the heterogeneity components.<p>The aforementioned findings could be adapted to include functional aspects and<p>better address the relationship between spatial pattern and ecological processes. Such<p>integration would help designing response actions that can recommend human activities<p>and spatial patterns that could optimise the use of land to ensure ecological functioning<p>while supporting human development. / <p>L’influence croissante de l’homme sur son environnement affecte désormais le monde<p>entier, ce qui induit des pressions sur la santé des écosystèmes et raréfie les ressources<p>en terres. L’Afrique présente un intérêt particulier à cet égard car elle contient de vastes<p>zones quasi vierges et fournit des services écosystémiques importants mais est soumise<p>à des pressions anthropiques croissantes. L’écologie du paysage étudie ces phénomènes<p>de façon intégrative au moyen de sa composante spatiale et de son échelle d’intérêt. Elle<p>étudie l’impact des transformations de la structure spatiale — en particulier l’hétérogénéité<p>et ses différentes composantes—sur les processus écologiques et fournit de puissants outils<p>analytiques de l’anthropisation.<p>L’objectif de cette thèse est d’organiser les concepts et méthodes de différentes disciplines<p>de façon à mettre en évidence leurs forces et faiblesses pour proposer une nouvelle<p>quantification de l’anthropisation, orientée vers la gestion, et de la tester sur des paysages<p>africains pour examiner la structure spatiale de l’anthropisation. Le DPSIR est utilisé pour<p>assembler les différents concepts. La nouvelle méthodologie est testée sur Lubumbashi<p>(RDC). Ensuite, le lien entre la thermodynamique et l’utilisation du terme entropie en<p>écologie du paysage est examiné. Vingt paysages servent alors à mettre en évidence la<p>complexité de l’impact de l’anthropisation sur l’hétérogénéité du paysage. Enfin, cette<p>modélisation sert à mettre en évidence l’origine anthropique de la structure spatiale d’une<p>classe d’occupation du sol à Lubumbashi.<p>Les résultats principaux de cette recherche sont que pléthore de termes sont utilisés<p>pour représenter différents aspects de l’anthropisation et que sa quantification dépend de<p>la définition d’états de référence. Cependant, la combinaison de différents formats de<p>données peut aboutir à une nouvelle méthodologie plus précise et adaptable, mais cela<p>nécessite une bonne connaissance de terrain. Les définitions de l’entropie dépendent soit de<p>la thermodynamique soit de la théorie de l’information, qui ne sont pas compatibles. Seule<p>l’imprévisibilité pourrait être interprétée thermodynamiquement, si les mesures de transfert<p>d’énergie étaient effectuées à l’échelle appropriée. L’impact humain sur l’hétérogénéité<p>diverge selon la quantité de surface déjà anthropisée, le type de couverture du sol pris en<p>compte ainsi que les composantes de l’hétérogénéité mesurées.<p>Ces découvertes peuvent être adaptées pour intégrer des aspects fonctionnels de la<p>structure spatiale et mieux cerner le lien entre celle-ci et le fonctionnement écologique, ce qui<p>permettrait de proposer des activités humaines et des structures spatiales qui optimiseraient<p>l’utilisation des ressources en sol pour assurer tant le fonctionnement écologique que le<p>développement humain. / Doctorat en Sciences agronomiques et ingénierie biologique / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Les forêts boréales stockent de grandes quantités de carbone organique et jouent un rôle important dans le climat planètaire. Le climat est étroitement associé à la surface terrestre à travers les flux de gaz à effet de serre, d’énergie et de vapeur d’eau. Dans la zone de pergélisol sporadique nord-américaine, l’affaissement du sol attribuable au dégel provoque l’expansion de milieux humides sans pergélisol remplaçant des forêts avec pergélisol. Cependant, l’étendue spatiale de ces changements et leurs conséquences sur le climat sont inconnues. Dans cette étude, j’analyse les flux turbulents d’un paysage comprenant des forêts boréales et des milieux humides dans la partie sud de la Taïga des plaines, T.N.-O., Canada. J’associe ces flux avec la modélisation d’empreintes de flux, des données satellite, des données paléoécologiques, et des projections climatiques afin de caractériser l’impact des changements de la couverture terrestre sur les interactions entre la terre et l’atmosphère. Dans la Taïga des plaines, la perte de forêt boréale attribuable au dégel est d’une importance égale à celle due aux feux de forêt. La perte de forêt modifie les flux turbulents d’énergie à travers des changements dans les propriétés aérodynamiques et écophysiologiques de la surface terrestre. L’accroissement de l’albédo cause de petites réductions dans la somme des flux turbulents de chaleur sensible (H) et de chaleur latente (LE)). La diminution de la rugosité et l’augmentation de l’humidité de la surface augmentent toutefois LE tout en réduisant H, ce qui mènerait à une baisse des températures estivales et à une augmentation de l’humidité de l’air, d’après des simulations réalisées à l’aide d’un modèle de la couche limite planétaire. Contrairement à l’effet biophysique de refroidissement du climat régional dû à la perte de couvert forestier, l’expansion des milieux humides et l’augmentation des émissions de méthane (CH4) provoque un réchauffement du climat. L’expansion des milieux humides dans la partie sud de la Taïga des plaines entraîne une augmentation des émissions de 0.034 g CH4 m-2 a-1. Les taux d’absorption de CO2 caractéristiques de ces paysages sont trop faibles pour neutraliser le réchauffement du climat dû aux émissions de CH4 d’ici la fin du 21ème siècle. Tout en dégelant rapidement, ces paysages boréaux restent des puits de CO2, absorbant 74 g CO2 m-2 a-1. L’expansion des milieux humides n’affecte pas les émissions nettes de CO2, les changements de la productivité primaire brute (PPB) et de la respiration de l’écosystème (RE) étant d’une magnitude similaire. Les répercussions négligeables sur les flux nets de CO2 sont largement compensées par les répercussions climatiques directes d’un réchauffement de la température de l’air. Un scénario de réchauffement élevé mène à un accroissement de RE dépassant significativement l’accroissement de PPB. Dans la Taïga des plaines, le dégel du pergélisol a donc des répercussions climatiques qui s’opposent aux plans biophysiques et biogéochimiques. Dans un climat plus chaud, le dégel modifie la façon dont les paysages interagissent avec le climat, ce qui souligne la nécessité d’intégrer les changements dans la couverture terrestre attribuable au dégel dans les modèles du système Terre. / Boreal forests store large amounts of organic carbon and are an important component of the regional and global climate systems. Climate and land surface are closely coupled through the land-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases, such as CO2 and CH4, and of energy and water vapor. In lowlands of the North American sporadic permafrost region, thaw-induced surface subsidence leads to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands at the expense of boreal forests underlain by permafrost. However, the spatial extent of these land cover changes and their implications for land-atmosphere interactions are unknown. In this study, I analyze eddy covariance flux measurements from an organic-rich boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, NT, Canada. I combine these measurements with flux footprint modeling, satellite remote sensing data, paleoecological records, and downscaled climate projections to characterize how thaw-induced land cover change affects land-atmosphere interactions and climate. In the Taiga Plains ecozone, thaw-induced boreal forest loss currently transforms the composition and structure of the boreal zone in North America and is of equal importance for tree cover dynamics as wildfire disturbance. Forest loss modifies landatmosphere energy fluxes through changes in aerodynamic and ecophysiological land surface properties. On the one hand, increasing albedo decreases total turbulent energy fluxes (i.e., sensible (H) and latent heat (LE) flux), and on the other hand decreasing surface roughness and increasing wetness enhances LE at the expense of H. The resulting maximum summer air temperatures and humidity would be substantially colder (1-2 C) and wetter (2 mmol mol-1) in a hypothetical permafrost-free wetland landscape, as indicated by planetary boundary layer model simulations. In contrast to the regional biophysical climate cooling impact of thaw-induced land cover change, wetland expansion and related increases in landscape CH4 emissions induce a net global biogeochemical climate warming impact. At the current rate of wetland expansion in the southern Taiga Plains of 0.26 % yr-1, landscape CH4 emissions increase by 0.034 g CH4 m-2 yr-1. Typical rates of long-term net CO2 uptake in these landscapes are too small to neutralize the associated climate warming effect until the end of the 21st century. The rapidly thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape still acts as a net CO2 sink taking up 74 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. Wetland expansion does not affect landscape-level net CO2 uptake as changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) are of similar magnitude. The negligible thaw-induced effects on net CO2 fluxes are contrasted by larger direct climate change impacts of warming air temperatures and reduced incoming shortwave radiation. For a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), increases in modeled ER outpace the increasing GPP significantly. For a moderate warming scenario (RCP4.5), ER and GPP increase are of similar magnitude. Thaw-induced land cover change in the Taiga Plains causes thus biophysical and biogeochemical climate impacts of opposite sign and at contrasting scales of impacts (regional vs. global). In an increasingly warmer climate, thawing permafrost alters how boreal landscapes interact with climate highlighting the need to incorporate thaw-induced land cover changes into global Earth system models.

The provision of ecosystem services within social-ecological systems is influenced by multiple environmental and anthropogenic driving forces, affecting natural ecosystems. At the same time, the capacity of ecosystems to concurrently provide different types of ecosystem services is inherently limited. Thus, ecosystem changes and their effect on ecosystem services have direct implications for human existence and well-being. The aim of this thesis is to present a modelling approach to assess regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services and to quantify their potential trade-offs, illustrated by two case studies carried out in selected UNESCO Biosphere Reserves in the Czech Republic, Třeboň Basin Biosphere Reserve and Šumava Biosphere Reserve. Both of the selected case study areas are characterized by high levels of natural and cultural assets and challenges regarding future landscape management. In this study, first the social-ecological dynamics within the study areas was analysed by creating participative scenarios through collaboration with local stakeholders, eliciting their preferences regarding future landscape development to 2050. Second, the impact of the scenarios on ecosystem services and their trade-offs were assessed using a combination of spatially explicit models and...

This study aimed to investigate the spatial extent of Land-Use Land-Cover (LULC) change and the implications for ecosystem services in order to develop a sustainable land-use management framework for traditional authorities in South Africa. Effectively, this study undertook an insightful examination of the impacts that arise from policy decisions and practices, which unfortunately were found to be ineffective. The methodologies and approaches used in this study included both quantitative and qualitative techniques. The critical quantitative method employed in this research was the use of survey questionnaires to collect primary data. Qualitative approaches, such as one-on-one and key informant interviews, were used to triangulate the findings. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods were used to investigate changes in LULC from 1990 to 2018 through the use of data obtained from the South African National Land-Cover project. Stochastic models were used to predict future LULC changes from 2018 to 2050. The Co$ting Nature Policy Support System was used to identify and undertake economic valuation of services provided by ecosystems. Statistical analysis using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences was used to identify correlations and the reliability of the data, while graphs and tables were generated to identify patterns and lessons from the research. Between 1990 and 2018, significant changes in land cover were noticed for thickets and dense bush, woodlands, waterbodies, subsistence agriculture, and built-up areas. Woodlands changed by over 1 000 hectares (ha) per year, while thickets decreased by over 900 ha per year. Drivers of these changes include deforestation, among others. Future predictions for LULC revealed that between 2018 and 2050, almost 500 ha of woodlands would be lost to built-up areas. The aggregate value of the services flowing from ecosystems was found to be R9 509 044 608.00. A significant issue was that 90% of the traditional leaders interviewed could not positively respond to whether they knew the extent of the land they presided over, which raised questions regarding the effectiveness of their management systems. Recommendations were made in this study to address the limitations identified in the land-use management practices by adapting elements of the main theoretical frameworks, namely the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services framework; the Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses framework; the sustainability theory; and the hierarchy of plans, into a new framework designed specifically for traditional leaders, titled the “Traditional leaders land-use decision support framework”. / Environmental Sciences / D. Phil. (Environmental Management)

The provision of ecosystem services within social-ecological systems is influenced by multiple environmental and anthropogenic driving forces, affecting natural ecosystems. At the same time, the capacity of ecosystems to concurrently provide different types of ecosystem services is inherently limited. Thus, ecosystem changes and their effect on ecosystem services have direct implications for human existence and well-being. The aim of this thesis is to present a modelling approach to assess regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services and to quantify their potential trade-offs, illustrated by two case studies carried out in selected UNESCO Biosphere Reserves in the Czech Republic, Třeboň Basin Biosphere Reserve and Šumava Biosphere Reserve. Both of the selected case study areas are characterized by high levels of natural and cultural assets and challenges regarding future landscape management. In this study, first the social-ecological dynamics within the study areas was analysed by creating participative scenarios through collaboration with local stakeholders, eliciting their preferences regarding future landscape development to 2050. Second, the impact of the scenarios on ecosystem services and their trade-offs were assessed using a combination of spatially explicit models and...