<p> Inclement challenges of a changing climate and humanity's desire to explore extraterrestrial environments both necessitate efficient methods to obtain freshwater. To accommodate next generation water technology, there is a need for understanding and defining the energy efficiency for unconventional water sources over a broad range of environments. Exergy analysis provides a common description for efficiency that may be used to evaluate technologies and water sources for energy feasibility. This work uses robust thermodynamic theory coupled with atmospheric and planetary data to define water capture efficiency, explore its variation across climate conditions, and identify technological niches and development needs.  </p> <p><br></p> <p> We find that desalinating saline liquid brines, even when highly saline, could be the most energetically favorable option for obtaining water outside of Earth. The energy required to access water vapor may be four to ten times higher than accessing ice deposits, however it offers the capacity for decentralized systems. Considering atmospheric water vapor harvesting on Earth, we find that the thermodynamic minimum is anywhere from 0x (RH≥ 100%) to upwards of 250x (RH<10\%) the minimum energy requirement of seawater desalination. Sorbents, modelled as metal organic frameworks (MOFs), have a particular niche in arid and semi-arid regions (20-30%). Membrane-systems are best at low relative humidity and the region of applicability is strongly affected by the vacuum pumping efficiency. Dew harvesting is best at higher humidity and fog harvesting is optimal when super-saturated conditions exist. Component (e.g., pump, chiller, etc.) inefficiencies are the largest barrier in increasing process-level efficiency and strongly impact the regions optimal technology deployment. The analysis elucidates a fundamental basis for comparing water systems energy efficiency for outer space applications and provides the first thermodynamics-based comparison of classes of atmospheric water harvesting technologies on Earth.</p>

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Secondary hardwood products manufacturers have been placing heavy emphasis on lumber yield improvements in recent years. More attention has been on lumber grade and cutting technology rather than cutting bill design. However, understanding the underlying physical phenomena of cutting bill requirements and yield is essential to improve lumber yield in rough mills. This understanding could also be helpful in constructing a novel lumber yield estimation model. The purpose of this study was to advance the understanding of the phenomena relating cutting bill requirements and yield. The scientific knowledge gained was used to describe and quantify the effect of part length, width, and quantity on yield. Based on this knowledge, a statistics based approach to the lumber yield estimation problem was undertaken. Rip-first rough mill simulation techniques and statistical methods were used to attain the study's goals. To facilitate the statistical analysis of the relationship of cutting bill requirements and lumber yield, a theoretical concept, called cutting bill part groups, was developed. Part groups are a standardized way to describe cutting bill requirements. All parts required by a cutting bill are clustered within 20 individual groups according to their size. Each group's midpoint is the representative part size for all parts falling within an individual group. These groups are made such that the error from clustering is minimized. This concept allowed a decrease in the number of possible factors to account for in the analysis of the cutting bill requirements - lumber yield relationship. Validation of the concept revealed that the average error due to clustering parts is 1.82 percent absolute yield. An orthogonal, 220-11 fractional factorial design of resolution V was then used to determine the contribution of different part sizes to lumber yield. All 20 part sizes and 113 of a total of 190 unique secondary interactions were found to be significant (a = 0.05) in explaining the variability in yield observed. Parameter estimates of the part sizes and the secondary interactions were then used to specify the average yield contribution of each variable. Parts with size 17.50 inches in length and 2.50 inches in width were found to contribute the most to higher yield. The positive effect on yield due to parts smaller than 17.50 by 2.50 inches is less pronounced because their quantity is relatively small in an average cutting bill. Parts with size 72.50 by 4.25 inches, on the other hand, had the most negative influence on high yield. However, as further analysis showed, not only the individual parts required by a cutting bill, but also their interaction determines yield. By adding a sufficiently large number of smaller parts to a cutting bill that requires large parts to be cut, high levels of yield can be achieved. A novel yield estimation model using linear least squares techniques was derived based on the data from the fractional factorial design. This model estimates expected yield based on part quantities required by a standardized cutting bill. The final model contained all 20 part groups and their 190 unique secondary interactions. The adjusted R2 for this model was found to be 0.94. The model estimated 450 of the 512 standardized cutting bills used for its derivation to within one percent absolute yield. Standardized cutting bills, whose yield level differs by more than two percent can thus be classified correctly in 88 percent of the cases. Standardized cutting bills whose part quantities were tested beyond the established framework, i.e. the settings used for the data derivation, were estimated with an average error of 2.19 percent absolute yield. Despite the error observed, the model ranked the cutting bills as to their yield level quite accurately. However, cutting bills from actual rough mill operations, which were well beyond the framework of the model, were found to have an average estimation error of 7.62 percent. Nonetheless, the model classified four out of five cutting bills correctly as to their ranking of the yield level achieved. The least squares estimation model thus is a helpful tool in ranking cutting bills for their expected yield level. Overall, the model performs well for standardized cutting bills, but more work is needed to make the model generally applicable for cutting bills whose requirements are beyond the framework established in this study. / Ph. D.

The rise of market globalization creates challenges for business executives seeking to pursue foreign direct investment (FDI) in least developed countries (LDC), such as Afghanistan. Multinational corporate (MNC) executives need strategies that will improve the timely delivery of minerals for mining projects in LDCs. Guided by the force field analysis theory, the purpose of this holistic, single-case study was to explore the strategy that 5 MNC executives in Beijing, China, used to improve the timely delivery of minerals associated with the Aynak copper mine project in Afghanistan. Semistructured interviews were used to elicit detailed narratives from MNC executives about their experiences to develop strategies for mining projects in LDCs. A review of company documents, as well as member-checking of initial interview transcripts, helped to bolster the trustworthiness of final interpretations. Study results included 2 themes. Theme 1 was determinants of mine investment strategies in LDCs that included an exploration of driving forces, restraining forces, neutral forces, and the effect of those forces. Theme 2 was FDI strategies for copper mine projects in LDCs that included the comparison of cost leadership strategy, differentiation strategy, and combination of cost leadership and differentiation strategies. By implementing a cost leadership strategy and best practices, MNC executives were able to achieve greater success to improve timely delivery of minerals associated with FDI copper mine projects in LDCs. Social implications include ongoing efforts of Afghan government leaders to implement effective economic policies that decrease unemployment while reducing poverty.

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Change-point analysis is devoted to the detection and estimation of the time of structural changes within a data set of time-ordered observations. In this thesis, we estimate simultaneously multiple change-points by the least squares method and examine asymptotic properties of such estimators. Using argmin theorems, we prove weak and strong consistency under different moment conditions and investigate convergence in distribution. The identification of the limit variable allows us to derive an asymptotic confidence region for the unknown parameters. Based on a simulation study we evaluate these results.

[pt] No novo modelo do Setor Elétrico é essencial desenvolver novas técnicas que estimem valores futuros, a curto e longo-prazos, das potências ativa e reativa. Com base nisso, este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar uma nova técnica de previsão horária de potência reativa a curto-prazo, por subestação, baseada na linearidade existente entre as potências ativa e reativa. O modelo proposto, denominado de Modelo Híbrido de Previsão de Reativo, é dividido em duas etapas: A primeira etapa é feita uma classificação dos dados através de uma rede neural não supervisionada Mapas Auto-Organizáveis de Kohonen (SOM); A segunda etapa, utiliza-se um modelo de defasagem distribuída auto-regressivo (ADL) com estimação de Mínimos Quadrados Reponderados Iterativamente (IRLS) acoplado a uma correção para autocorrelação serial dos resíduos - Método Iterativo de Cochrane-Orcutt. Este Modelo Híbrido tem como variável dependente a potência reativa, e como variáveis explicativas dados horários de potência ativa e reativa no instante atual e defasadas no tempo. A previsão de potência reativa a curto-prazo é dividida em in sample e em out of sample. A previsão out of sample é aplicada a períodos horários em até um mês à frente. O modelo proposto é aplicado aos dados de uma concessionária específica de Energia Elétrica e os resultados são comparados a um modelo de Regressão Dinâmica convencional e a um modelo de Redes Neurais Artificiais Feedforward de Múltiplas camadas (MLP) com um algoritmo de retropropagação do erro. / [en] The forecasting of reactive and active power is an important tool in the monitoring of an Electrical Energy System. The main purpose of the present work is the development of a new short-term reactive power hourly forecast technique, which can be used at utility or substations levels. The proposed model, named A Hybrid Model for Reactive Forecasting, is divided in two stages. In the first stage, the active and reactive power data are classified by an unsupervised neural network - the Self-Organized Maps of Kohonen (SOM). In the second stage, a Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL) is used with its parameters estimated by an Iteratively Reweighted Least Square (IRLS). It also includes a correction lag structure for serial autocorrelation of the residuals as used in the Cochrane-Orcutt formulation. The short term reactive power forecasting is divided in in sample and out of sample. The out of sample forecast is applied to hourly periods until one month ahead. The proposed model is applied to real data of one substation and the results are compared with two other approaches, a conventional Dynamic Regression and a Feedforward Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network model.

SAAB has developed an autonomous underwater vehicle that can mimic a conventional submarine for military fleets to exercise anti-submarine warfare. The AUV actively emits amplified versions of received sonar pulses to create the illusion of being a larger object. To prevent acoustic feedback, the AUV must distinguish between the sound to be actively responded to and its emitted signal. This master thesis has examined techniques aimed at preventing the AUV from responding to previously emitted signals to avoid acoustical feedback, without relying on prior knowledge of either the received signal or the signal emitted by the AUV. The two primary types of algorithms explored for this problem include blind source separation and adaptive filtering. The adaptive filters based on Leaky Least Mean Square and Kalman have shown promising results in attenuating the active response from the received signal. The adaptive filters utilize the fact that a certain hydrophone primarily receives the active response. This hydrophone serves as an estimate of the active response since the signal it captures is considered unknown and is to be removed. The techniques based on blind source separation have utilized the recordings of three hydrophones placed at various locations of the AUV to separate and estimate the received signal from the one emitted by the AUV. The results have demonstrated that neither of the reviewed methods is suitable for implementation on the AUV. The hydrophones are situated at a considerable distance from each other, resulting in distinct time delays between the reception of the two signals. This is usually referred to as a convolutive mixture. This is commonly solved using the frequency domain to transform the convolutive mixture to an instantaneous mixture. However, the fact that the signals share the same frequency spectrum and are adjacent in time has proven highly challenging.

[ES] De acuerdo con las regulaciones europeas y muchos estudios científicos, es necesario monitorear y analizar las condiciones microclimáticas en museos o edificios, para preservar las obras de arte en ellos. Con el objetivo de ofrecer herramientas para el monitoreo de las condiciones climáticas en este tipo de edificios, en esta tesis doctoral se propone una nueva metodología estadística para clasificar series temporales de parámetros climáticos como la temperatura y humedad relativa. La metodología consiste en aplicar un método de clasificación usando variables que se computan a partir de las series de tiempos. Los dos primeros métodos de clasificación son versiones conocidas de métodos sparse PLS que no se habían aplicado a datos correlacionados en el tiempo. El tercer método es una nueva propuesta que usa dos algoritmos conocidos. Los métodos de clasificación se basan en diferentes versiones de un método sparse de análisis discriminante de mínimos cuadra- dos parciales PLS (sPLS-DA, SPLSDA y sPLS) y análisis discriminante lineal (LDA). Las variables que los métodos de clasificación usan como input, corresponden a parámetros estimados a partir de distintos modelos, métodos y funciones del área de las series de tiempo, por ejemplo, modelo ARIMA estacional, modelo ARIMA- TGARCH estacional, método estacional Holt-Winters, función de densidad espectral, función de autocorrelación (ACF), función de autocorrelación parcial (PACF), rango móvil (MR), entre otras funciones. También fueron utilizadas algunas variables que se utilizan en el campo de la astronomía para clasificar estrellas. En los casos que a priori no hubo información de los clusters de las series de tiempos, las dos primeras componentes de un análisis de componentes principales (PCA) fueron utilizadas por el algoritmo k- means para identificar posibles clusters de las series de tiempo. Adicionalmente, los resultados del método sPLS-DA fueron comparados con los del algoritmo random forest. Tres bases de datos de series de tiempos de humedad relativa o de temperatura fueron analizadas. Los clusters de las series de tiempos se analizaron de acuerdo a diferentes zonas o diferentes niveles de alturas donde fueron instalados sensores para el monitoreo de las condiciones climáticas en los 3 edificios.El algoritmo random forest y las diferentes versiones del método sparse PLS fueron útiles para identificar las variables más importantes en la clasificación de las series de tiempos. Los resultados de sPLS-DA y random forest fueron muy similares cuando se usaron como variables de entrada las calculadas a partir del método Holt-Winters o a partir de funciones aplicadas a las series de tiempo. Aunque los resultados del método random forest fueron levemente mejores que los encontrados por sPLS-DA en cuanto a las tasas de error de clasificación, los resultados de sPLS- DA fueron más fáciles de interpretar. Cuando las diferentes versiones del método sparse PLS utilizaron variables resultantes del método Holt-Winters, los clusters de las series de tiempo fueron mejor discriminados. Entre las diferentes versiones del método sparse PLS, la versión sPLS con LDA obtuvo la mejor discriminación de las series de tiempo, con un menor valor de la tasa de error de clasificación, y utilizando el menor o segundo menor número de variables.En esta tesis doctoral se propone usar una versión sparse de PLS (sPLS-DA, o sPLS con LDA) con variables calculadas a partir de series de tiempo para la clasificación de éstas. Al aplicar la metodología a las distintas bases de datos estudiadas, se encontraron modelos parsimoniosos, con pocas variables, y se obtuvo una discriminación satisfactoria de los diferentes clusters de las series de tiempo con fácil interpretación. La metodología propuesta puede ser útil para caracterizar las distintas zonas o alturas en museos o edificios históricos de acuerdo con sus condiciones climáticas, con el objetivo de prevenir problemas de conservación con las obras de arte. / [CA] D'acord amb les regulacions europees i molts estudis científics, és necessari monitorar i analitzar les condiciones microclimàtiques en museus i en edificis similars, per a preservar les obres d'art que s'exposen en ells. Amb l'objectiu d'oferir eines per al monitoratge de les condicions climàtiques en aquesta mena d'edificis, en aquesta tesi es proposa una nova metodologia estadística per a classificar series temporals de paràmetres climàtics com la temperatura i humitat relativa.La metodologia consisteix a aplicar un mètode de classificació usant variables que es computen a partir de les sèries de temps. Els dos primers mètodes de classificació són versions conegudes de mètodes sparse PLS que no s'havien aplicat adades correlacionades en el temps. El tercer mètode és una nova proposta que usados algorismes coneguts. Els mètodes de classificació es basen en diferents versions d'un mètode sparse d'anàlisi discriminant de mínims quadrats parcials PLS (sPLS-DA, SPLSDA i sPLS) i anàlisi discriminant lineal (LDA). Les variables queels mètodes de classificació usen com a input, corresponen a paràmetres estimats a partir de diferents models, mètodes i funcions de l'àrea de les sèries de temps, per exemple, model ARIMA estacional, model ARIMA-TGARCH estacional, mètode estacional Holt-Winters, funció de densitat espectral, funció d'autocorrelació (ACF), funció d'autocorrelació parcial (PACF), rang mòbil (MR), entre altres funcions. També van ser utilitzades algunes variables que s'utilitzen en el camp de l'astronomia per a classificar estreles. En els casos que a priori no va haver-hi información dels clústers de les sèries de temps, les dues primeres components d'una anàlisi de components principals (PCA) van ser utilitzades per l'algorisme k-means per a identificar possibles clústers de les sèries de temps. Addicionalment, els resultats del mètode sPLS-DA van ser comparats amb els de l'algorisme random forest.Tres bases de dades de sèries de temps d'humitat relativa o de temperatura varen ser analitzades. Els clústers de les sèries de temps es van analitzar d'acord a diferents zones o diferents nivells d'altures on van ser instal·lats sensors per al monitoratge de les condicions climàtiques en els edificis.L'algorisme random forest i les diferents versions del mètode sparse PLS van ser útils per a identificar les variables més importants en la classificació de les series de temps. Els resultats de sPLS-DA i random forest van ser molt similars quan es van usar com a variables d'entrada les calculades a partir del mètode Holt-winters o a partir de funcions aplicades a les sèries de temps. Encara que els resultats del mètode random forest van ser lleument millors que els trobats per sPLS-DA quant a les taxes d'error de classificació, els resultats de sPLS-DA van ser més fàcils d'interpretar.Quan les diferents versions del mètode sparse PLS van utilitzar variables resultants del mètode Holt-Winters, els clústers de les sèries de temps van ser més ben discriminats. Entre les diferents versions del mètode sparse PLS, la versió sPLS amb LDA va obtindre la millor discriminació de les sèries de temps, amb un menor valor de la taxa d'error de classificació, i utilitzant el menor o segon menor nombre de variables.En aquesta tesi proposem usar una versió sparse de PLS (sPLS-DA, o sPLS amb LDA) amb variables calculades a partir de sèries de temps per a classificar series de temps. En aplicar la metodologia a les diferents bases de dades estudiades, es van trobar models parsimoniosos, amb poques variables, i varem obtindre una discriminació satisfactòria dels diferents clústers de les sèries de temps amb fácil interpretació. La metodologia proposada pot ser útil per a caracteritzar les diferents zones o altures en museus o edificis similars d'acord amb les seues condicions climàtiques, amb l'objectiu de previndre problemes amb les obres d'art. / [EN] According to different European Standards and several studies, it is necessary to monitor and analyze the microclimatic conditions in museums and similar buildings, with the goal of preserving artworks. With the aim of offering tools to monitor the climatic conditions, a new statistical methodology for classifying time series of different climatic parameters, such as relative humidity and temperature, is pro- posed in this dissertation.The methodology consists of applying a classification method using variables that are computed from time series. The two first classification methods are ver- sions of known sparse methods which have not been applied to time dependent data. The third method is a new proposal that uses two known algorithms. These classification methods are based on different versions of sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis PLS (sPLS-DA, SPLSDA, and sPLS) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). The variables that are computed from time series, correspond to parameter estimates from functions, methods, or models commonly found in the area of time series, e.g., seasonal ARIMA model, seasonal ARIMA-TGARCH model, seasonal Holt-Winters method, spectral density function, autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), moving range (MR), among others functions. Also, some variables employed in the field of astronomy (for classifying stars) were proposed.The methodology proposed consists of two parts. Firstly, different variables are computed applying the methods, models or functions mentioned above, to time series. Next, once the variables are calculated, they are used as input for a classification method like sPLS-DA, SPLSDA, or SPLS with LDA (new proposal). When there was no information about the clusters of the different time series, the first two components from principal component analysis (PCA) were used as input for k-means method for identifying possible clusters of time series. In addition, results from random forest algorithm were compared with results from sPLS-DA.This study analyzed three sets of time series of relative humidity or temperate, recorded in different buildings (Valencia's Cathedral, the archaeological site of L'Almoina, and the baroque church of Saint Thomas and Saint Philip Neri) in Valencia, Spain. The clusters of the time series were analyzed according to different zones or different levels of the sensor heights, for monitoring the climatic conditions in these buildings.Random forest algorithm and different versions of sparse PLS helped identifying the main variables for classifying the time series. When comparing the results from sPLS-DA and random forest, they were very similar for variables from seasonal Holt-Winters method and functions which were applied to the time series. The results from sPLS-DA were easier to interpret than results from random forest. When the different versions of sparse PLS used variables from seasonal Holt- Winters method as input, the clusters of the time series were identified effectively.The variables from seasonal Holt-Winters helped to obtain the best, or the second best results, according to the classification error rate. Among the different versions of sparse PLS proposed, sPLS with LDA helped to classify time series using a fewer number of variables with the lowest classification error rate.We propose using a version of sparse PLS (sPLS-DA, or sPLS with LDA) with variables computed from time series for classifying time series. For the different data sets studied, the methodology helped to produce parsimonious models with few variables, it achieved satisfactory discrimination of the different clusters of the time series which are easily interpreted. This methodology can be useful for characterizing and monitoring micro-climatic conditions in museums, or similar buildings, for preventing problems with artwork. / I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali – PUJ and Instituto Colombiano de Crédito Educativo y Estudios Técnicos en el Exterior – ICETEX who awarded me the scholarships ’Convenio de Capacitación para Docentes O. J. 086/17’ and ’Programa Crédito Pasaporte a la Ciencia ID 3595089 foco-reto salud’ respectively. The scholarships were essential for obtaining the Ph.D. Also, I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 814624. / Ramírez Buelvas, SM. (2022). A Statistical Methodology for Classifying Time Series in the Context of Climatic Data [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/181123 / TESIS

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