Since the seminal papers of Bates and Granger in 1969, a superfluous amount of information has been published on combining singular forecasts. Materialized evidence has habitually demonstrated that combining the forecasts will produce the best model. Moreover, while it is possible that a best singular model could outperform a composite model, using multiple models provides the advantage of risk diversification. It has also been shown to produce a lower forecasting error. The question to whether to combine has been replaced with what amount of emphasis should be placed on each forecast. Researchers are aspired to derive optimal weights that would produce the lowest forecasting errors. An equal composite of the mean square error, by the covariance, and the best previous model, among others, have been suggested. Other academicians have suggested the use of mechanical derived weights through the use of computer programs. These weights have shown robust results. Once the composite and singular forecasts have been estimated, a systematic approach to evaluate the singular forecasts is needed. Forecasting errors, such as the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error, are the most common criteria for elimination in both agriculture and other sectors. Although a valid mean of selection, different forecasting errors can produce a different ordinal ranking of the forecasts; thus, producing inconclusive results. These findings have promoted the inspection for other suitable candidates for forecast evaluation. At the forefront of this pursuit is stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency. Stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency have traditionally been used as a way to rank wealth or returns from a group of alternatives. They have been principally used in the finance and money sector as a way to evaluate investment strategies. Holt and Brandt in 1985 proposed using stochastic dominance to select between different hedging strategies. Their results suggest that stochastic dominance has the opportunity to feasibly be used in selecting the most accurate forecast. This thesis had three objectives: 1) To determine whether live cattle basis forecasting error could be reduced in comparison to singular models when using composite forecasts 2) To determine whether stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency could be used to systematically select the most accurate forecasts 3) To determine whether currently reported forecasting error measures might lead to inaccurate conclusions in which forecast was correct. The objectives were evaluated using two primary markets, Utah and Western Kansas, and two secondary markets, Texas and Nebraska. The data for live cattle slaughter steer basis was taken and subsequently computed from the Livestock Marketing Information Center, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and United States Department of Agriculture from 2004 to 2012. Seven singular were initially used and adapted from the current academic literature. After the models were evaluated using forecasting error, stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency, seven composite models were created. For each separate composite model, a different weighting scheme was applied. The “optimal” composite weight, in particular, was estimated using GAMS whose objective function was to select the forecast combination that would reduce the variance-covariance between the singular forecasting models. The composite models were likewise systematically evaluated using forecasting error, stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency. The results indicate that forecasting error can be reduced in all four markets, on the average by using an optimal weighting scheme. Optimal weighting schemes can also outperform the benchmark equal weights. Moreover, a combination of fast reaction time series and market condition, supply and demand, forecasts provide the better model. Stochastic dominance and stochastic efficiency provided confirmatory results and selected the efficient set of the forecasts over a range of risk. It likewise indicated that forecasting error may provide a point estimate rather than a range of error. Suggestions for their application and implementation into extension outlook forecasts and industry application are suggested.

Bison production is an emerging retail meat industry. As demand increases, it creates opportunity for supply-side growth. However, the bison market is volatile and the potential for a drop in the value of bison makes price risk an important factor for producers. Following price risk theory, hedging opportunities for bison producers are investigated using the live cattle futures contract. For the time periods researched, there is no clear evidence that cross-hedging reduces price risk for bison producers. However, there is a possibility that after the bison industry becomes more established and consumer knowledge plays lesser of a role in prices, cross-hedging strategies will be advantageous to producers. / Master of Science

O estudo comparou o desempenho preditivo dos modelos de previsão de redes neurais e de suavização exponencial, empregando dados diários do preço da arroba do boi gordo futuro (BM&FBOVESPA) entre janeiro de 2010 até dezembro de 2015. Os resultados mostram que modelos relativamente mais complexos como redes neurais não necessariamente apresentam melhor desempenho se comparados a modelos mais simples, e também mostram que a classificação relativa muda conforme variam as medidas de ajuste e/ou horizonte de previsão além de vantagens associadas a combinação de diversos modelos. / This study compared the predictive performance between neural network models and exponential smoothing, using daily data of live cattle future price (BM&FBOVESPA) from January 2010 to December 2015. The results show that relatively more complex models like neural networks do not necessarily display better performance compared to simpler ones. Results also shows that relative classification changes with respect to adjust measures and/or forecast horizons changes besides advantages achieved by model combinaion.

Mais do que uma ferramenta para gestão do risco de preços para produtores e consumidores, os contratos futuros agropecuários tem se tornado uma importante opção de investimento principalmente em períodos de crise quando os riscos no mercado de ações aumentam. No Brasil, a participação de investidores no mercado futuro agropecuário ainda é pequena, mas há um considerável potencial de crescimento, posto que o país é um importante player no mercado internacional das principais commodities agropecuárias como café, soja, milho, açúcar, etanol e carne. Neste contexto, será analisada neste trabalho a relação entre os retornos resultantes de posições compradas em contratos futuros agropecuários negociados na BM&FBOVESPA e o retorno apresentado pelo mercado de ações, representado pelo Índice Bovespa com atenção especial aos períodos de crise. Para isso, utilizou-se uma metodologia similar a desenvolvida por Baur e Lucey (2009) buscando identificar em qual categoria porto seguro, hedge ou diversificador - os dois principais contratos futuros negociados na BM&FBOVESPA - boi gordo e café arábica se encaixam. Os comportamentos de tais contratos foram analisados de forma isolada e também considerando carteiras formadas pelo ponto de mínimo risco da teoria do portfólio de Markowitz. Como resultado identifcou-se que o contrato futuro do boi gordo atua como hedge em relação ao mercado de ações, já o contrato futuro do café arábica, por apresentar correlação positiva, mas não perfeita, atua como diversificador. Combinando os dois contratos em posição comprada durante todo o período obteve-se uma carteira cuja variância média foi inferior a variância do boi gordo e do café arábica, no entanto esta carteira apresenta correlação positiva em relação ao mercado de ações, o que a coloca na categoria de diversificador. Outra combinação entre os contratos foi feita utilizando uma estratégia dinâmica de negociação, ou seja, a posição adotada pelo investidor se altera no decorrer do tempo. Esta carteira apresentou uma variância média inferior à carteira estática e a correlação com o mercado de ações reduziu ainda mais, porém continuou positiva. Sendo assim, o boi gordo mostrou ser o contrato que melhor protege o investidor, mas seu retorno médio é inferior se comparado às demais opções, já a carteira dinâmica apresenta a segunda menor correlação e um retorno superior. Vale destacar que, apesar de nenhum contrato ter se mostrado como porto seguro em relação ao mercado de ações, todos podem ser utilizados com a finalidade de redução do risco. / More than a tool for managing price risk, commodity futures contracts have become an important investment option especially in times of crisis when the risk in the stock market increases. In Brazil, the participation of investors in the agricultural futures market is still small, but there is a huge potential for growth, given that the country is an important player in the international market of agricultural commodities such as coffee, soybeans, corn, sugar, ethanol and meat. In this context, this study aims to examine the relationship between returns resulting from long positions in the two major futures contracts traded at BM&FBOVESPA live cattle and arabica coffee - and returns made with an investment in the Brazilian stock market, with special attention to crisis periods. For this, a methodology similar to that developed by Baur and Lucey (2009) was used in order to identify in which category - safe haven, hedge or diversifier - the futures contracts fit. The behaviours of these two contracts were analysed separately and also considering portfolios formed using the Markowitz theory of portfolio. As a result, it was identified that the live cattle futures contract can be considered as a hedge against the stock market. The arabica coffee, for presenting a positive correlation, but not perfect, serves as a diversifier. Combining the two contracts considering long position throughout the period was obtained a portfolio whose average variance was lower than the variance of the live cattle as well as the arabica coffee, however the returns of this portfolio presents a positive correlation against the stock market which places it in the diversifier category. Another combination of the contracts was made using a dynamic trading strategy, ie, the position adopted by the investor changes over time. This portfolio presented an average variance lower than the static portfolio (long position) and the correlation with the stock market was even lower than the static portfolio, but still positive. Thus, the live cattle contract proved to be the one that best protects the investor when added into a stock portfolio, but its average return is lower than all the others arabica coffee, static portfolio and dynamic portfolio). It is worth noting that although no contract had been shown as a safe haven compared to the stock market, all of them can be used for the purpose of reducing risk.

O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi avaliar a eficiência do mercado futuro como forma de mitigação do risco associado aos preços do boi gordo para as praças de Araçatuba (SP) e Goiânia (GO). Calculou-se a efetividade do hedge por meio da razão ótima de hedge para as praças estudadas no período de 2002 a 2013, utilizando três tipos de modelos econométricos. No primeiro modelo, as variâncias e covariâncias condicionais foram tratadas como constantes e os preços spot e futuro não foram considerados correlacionados no tempo; no segundo modelo, relaxou-se a hipótese de que os preços spot e futuro não são correlacionados no tempo, portanto, adicionou-se um vetor de correção de erros ao modelo; e, no terceiro modelo, assumiu-se que as variâncias e covariâncias condicionais não são constantes. Os resultados obtidos por esses métodos indicaram que o uso do contrato futuro de boi gordo diminuiu a variância dos retornos no período estudado, de modo que as estimativas dinâmicas foram inferiores na efetividade em diminuir o risco de preço diante das estimativas obtidas por modelos estáticos. Ainda com o intuito de avaliar a eficiência do mercado futuro de boi gordo, foram quantificados a variância e os retornos do confinador nas praças estudadas através de simulações de compra de boi magro e posterior venda de boi gordo, realizando, simultaneamente, o hedge no mercado futuro. Observou-se que a utilização do contrato futuro diminuiu o coeficiente de variação para os períodos analisados em comparação às estratégias que não realizaram a utilização do hedge. / The general objective of this research was to evaluate the efficiency of futures market in order to mitigate the risk of price of live cattle to the producers of Araçatuba (SP) and Goiânia (GO). To measure this effectiveness, we estimated the optimal hedge ratio from the period of 2002 to 2013, using three types of econometric models. In the first model, conditional variances and covariances were treated as constant and the spot and future prices were not considered correlated in time; in the second model, we relaxed the hypothesis that spot and future prices were not correlated in time, so, we added an error correction vector to the model; and, in the third model, we assumed that the conditional variances and covariances are not constant. The results obtained by these methods indicated that the use of live cattle contract was able to reduce the risk and also that the dynamic estimates do not overcome the static estimates. We also calculated the variance of returns for the producers of Araçatuba e Goiânia by purchasing simulations of steers and subsequent sale of live cattle, performing simultaneously the hedge on the market future. It was observed that the use of the futures contract decreased the coefficient of variation for the periods analyzed compared to the strategies that did not undergo the use of hedging.

O estudo comparou o desempenho preditivo dos modelos de previsão de redes neurais e de suavização exponencial, empregando dados diários do preço da arroba do boi gordo futuro (BM&FBOVESPA) entre janeiro de 2010 até dezembro de 2015. Os resultados mostram que modelos relativamente mais complexos como redes neurais não necessariamente apresentam melhor desempenho se comparados a modelos mais simples, e também mostram que a classificação relativa muda conforme variam as medidas de ajuste e/ou horizonte de previsão além de vantagens associadas a combinação de diversos modelos. / This study compared the predictive performance between neural network models and exponential smoothing, using daily data of live cattle future price (BM&FBOVESPA) from January 2010 to December 2015. The results show that relatively more complex models like neural networks do not necessarily display better performance compared to simpler ones. Results also shows that relative classification changes with respect to adjust measures and/or forecast horizons changes besides advantages achieved by model combinaion.

O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi avaliar a eficiência do mercado futuro como forma de mitigação do risco associado aos preços do boi gordo para as praças de Araçatuba (SP) e Goiânia (GO). Calculou-se a efetividade do hedge por meio da razão ótima de hedge para as praças estudadas no período de 2002 a 2013, utilizando três tipos de modelos econométricos. No primeiro modelo, as variâncias e covariâncias condicionais foram tratadas como constantes e os preços spot e futuro não foram considerados correlacionados no tempo; no segundo modelo, relaxou-se a hipótese de que os preços spot e futuro não são correlacionados no tempo, portanto, adicionou-se um vetor de correção de erros ao modelo; e, no terceiro modelo, assumiu-se que as variâncias e covariâncias condicionais não são constantes. Os resultados obtidos por esses métodos indicaram que o uso do contrato futuro de boi gordo diminuiu a variância dos retornos no período estudado, de modo que as estimativas dinâmicas foram inferiores na efetividade em diminuir o risco de preço diante das estimativas obtidas por modelos estáticos. Ainda com o intuito de avaliar a eficiência do mercado futuro de boi gordo, foram quantificados a variância e os retornos do confinador nas praças estudadas através de simulações de compra de boi magro e posterior venda de boi gordo, realizando, simultaneamente, o hedge no mercado futuro. Observou-se que a utilização do contrato futuro diminuiu o coeficiente de variação para os períodos analisados em comparação às estratégias que não realizaram a utilização do hedge. / The general objective of this research was to evaluate the efficiency of futures market in order to mitigate the risk of price of live cattle to the producers of Araçatuba (SP) and Goiânia (GO). To measure this effectiveness, we estimated the optimal hedge ratio from the period of 2002 to 2013, using three types of econometric models. In the first model, conditional variances and covariances were treated as constant and the spot and future prices were not considered correlated in time; in the second model, we relaxed the hypothesis that spot and future prices were not correlated in time, so, we added an error correction vector to the model; and, in the third model, we assumed that the conditional variances and covariances are not constant. The results obtained by these methods indicated that the use of live cattle contract was able to reduce the risk and also that the dynamic estimates do not overcome the static estimates. We also calculated the variance of returns for the producers of Araçatuba e Goiânia by purchasing simulations of steers and subsequent sale of live cattle, performing simultaneously the hedge on the market future. It was observed that the use of the futures contract decreased the coefficient of variation for the periods analyzed compared to the strategies that did not undergo the use of hedging.

Mais do que uma ferramenta para gestão do risco de preços para produtores e consumidores, os contratos futuros agropecuários tem se tornado uma importante opção de investimento principalmente em períodos de crise quando os riscos no mercado de ações aumentam. No Brasil, a participação de investidores no mercado futuro agropecuário ainda é pequena, mas há um considerável potencial de crescimento, posto que o país é um importante player no mercado internacional das principais commodities agropecuárias como café, soja, milho, açúcar, etanol e carne. Neste contexto, será analisada neste trabalho a relação entre os retornos resultantes de posições compradas em contratos futuros agropecuários negociados na BM&FBOVESPA e o retorno apresentado pelo mercado de ações, representado pelo Índice Bovespa com atenção especial aos períodos de crise. Para isso, utilizou-se uma metodologia similar a desenvolvida por Baur e Lucey (2009) buscando identificar em qual categoria porto seguro, hedge ou diversificador - os dois principais contratos futuros negociados na BM&FBOVESPA - boi gordo e café arábica se encaixam. Os comportamentos de tais contratos foram analisados de forma isolada e também considerando carteiras formadas pelo ponto de mínimo risco da teoria do portfólio de Markowitz. Como resultado identifcou-se que o contrato futuro do boi gordo atua como hedge em relação ao mercado de ações, já o contrato futuro do café arábica, por apresentar correlação positiva, mas não perfeita, atua como diversificador. Combinando os dois contratos em posição comprada durante todo o período obteve-se uma carteira cuja variância média foi inferior a variância do boi gordo e do café arábica, no entanto esta carteira apresenta correlação positiva em relação ao mercado de ações, o que a coloca na categoria de diversificador. Outra combinação entre os contratos foi feita utilizando uma estratégia dinâmica de negociação, ou seja, a posição adotada pelo investidor se altera no decorrer do tempo. Esta carteira apresentou uma variância média inferior à carteira estática e a correlação com o mercado de ações reduziu ainda mais, porém continuou positiva. Sendo assim, o boi gordo mostrou ser o contrato que melhor protege o investidor, mas seu retorno médio é inferior se comparado às demais opções, já a carteira dinâmica apresenta a segunda menor correlação e um retorno superior. Vale destacar que, apesar de nenhum contrato ter se mostrado como porto seguro em relação ao mercado de ações, todos podem ser utilizados com a finalidade de redução do risco. / More than a tool for managing price risk, commodity futures contracts have become an important investment option especially in times of crisis when the risk in the stock market increases. In Brazil, the participation of investors in the agricultural futures market is still small, but there is a huge potential for growth, given that the country is an important player in the international market of agricultural commodities such as coffee, soybeans, corn, sugar, ethanol and meat. In this context, this study aims to examine the relationship between returns resulting from long positions in the two major futures contracts traded at BM&FBOVESPA live cattle and arabica coffee - and returns made with an investment in the Brazilian stock market, with special attention to crisis periods. For this, a methodology similar to that developed by Baur and Lucey (2009) was used in order to identify in which category - safe haven, hedge or diversifier - the futures contracts fit. The behaviours of these two contracts were analysed separately and also considering portfolios formed using the Markowitz theory of portfolio. As a result, it was identified that the live cattle futures contract can be considered as a hedge against the stock market. The arabica coffee, for presenting a positive correlation, but not perfect, serves as a diversifier. Combining the two contracts considering long position throughout the period was obtained a portfolio whose average variance was lower than the variance of the live cattle as well as the arabica coffee, however the returns of this portfolio presents a positive correlation against the stock market which places it in the diversifier category. Another combination of the contracts was made using a dynamic trading strategy, ie, the position adopted by the investor changes over time. This portfolio presented an average variance lower than the static portfolio (long position) and the correlation with the stock market was even lower than the static portfolio, but still positive. Thus, the live cattle contract proved to be the one that best protects the investor when added into a stock portfolio, but its average return is lower than all the others arabica coffee, static portfolio and dynamic portfolio). It is worth noting that although no contract had been shown as a safe haven compared to the stock market, all of them can be used for the purpose of reducing risk.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter titled ``U.S. Grass-fed Beef Price Premiums" examined monthly retail-level price premiums for grass-fed beef (relative to conventional grain-fed beef) in the U.S. from 2014 through 2021. We found that premiums were heterogeneous, with premium cuts (such as sirloin steak, tenderloin, ribeye, and filet mignon) enjoying the highest premiums. Premiums were not consistent with price levels, as the lowest premiums were observed for short ribs, skirt steak, and flank steak. Our findings suggest that grass-fed beef price premiums were negatively affected by the consumption of food away from home. Changes in income, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, revocation of the USDA grass-fed certification program in 2016 and COVID-19 pandemic, also affected premiums for several individual cuts. Premiums were not sensitive to changes in information about climate change. The second chapter, ``Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Meat Demand'', examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (AI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broilers in the U.S from 1997 to 2019. Using time-varying elasticities obtained from a Rotterdam model with animal disease cases, we found that BSE outbreaks reduced beef consumption by 0.64 percent and increased pork consumption by 2.34 percent, on average. While BSE outbreaks reduced beef demand, these effects were short lived and did not extend beyond one quarter. On the other hand, broiler consumption decreased during the HPAI outbreaks while beef and broiler consumption increased after such outbreaks. Our time-varying cross-price elasticities indicated that substitution between beef and broilers and beef and pork strengthened after Quarter 4 of 2003. The third chapter is titled ``Impact of North American Mad Cow Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Cattle Futures". Our study developed a distributional event response model (DERM) framework to show the duration and magnitude of market responses of the U.S. cattle futures market during episodes of mad cow disease (BSE) in North America between 2010 and 2019. Our results indicated that the 2017 U.S. BSE outbreak reduced the returns of live cattle futures. Additionally, the average duration of the BSE event response was about 8.5 days. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation focused on the price analysis of the U.S. livestock market. The first chapter analysed the pattern of grass-fed beef price premiums measured as the difference between grass-fed beef price and conventional beef price. We mainly explored how the premiums were affected by consumers' income, food consumption away from home, and information on climate change, beef taste, and nutrition. We found that consumption of food away from home reduced the grass-fed beef price premiums. In addition, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, and COVID-19 pandemic, could also affected the grass-fed premiums for several individual cuts. The second chapter explored how mad cow diseases and bird flu diseases affected the demand for beef, pork, and chicken. We particularly investigated how each disease outbreak affected the meat demand. My result showed that in the presence of mad cow diseases in the U.S., people bought more pork. This result that retailers should have higher pork demand when mad cow diseases are detected. The third chapter explored how mad cow diseases in North America affected the U.S. live cattle futures. We showed that the U.S. mad cow disease in 2017 reduced the returns of U.S. cattle futures and this impact lasted about 8.5 days. Simultaneously, we found that mad cow disease outbreaks in Canada did not significantly affect the U.S. cattle futures.

Submitted by Odilon Jose de Oliveira Neto (professorodilon@yahoo.com.br) on 2013-09-27T20:34:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2013-09-27T20:50:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-27T21:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE_ODILON.pdf: 885119 bytes, checksum: 460d85982ff9b027e21ee9ef445337e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-20 / Several attempts of negotiation of future contracts and price indexes of beef cattle in Argentina and in Uruguay were frustrated along the years. The derivatives issued failed in a short period of time due to lack of liquidity. That scenery and other particularities of the live cattle spot market turned the administration of risk of prices into a problem for the economical agents of the meat chain. In this context, the following question emerged: the cross hedging with future contracts of Brazilian live cattle in the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) is effective for the administration of risk of prices of beef steers in the Argentinian and Uruguayan spot market? In an effort to answer this question, it was proposed to verify if it is possible to mitigate the risk of the price volatility of the spot market of Argentinian and Uruguayan beef steers through of cross hedging in the futures market for Brazilian live cattle in the BM&FBovespa. For this, it was used static and dynamic models to estimate of the optimal cross hedge ratio and effectiveness of risk mitigation. The results of the hypothesis test of risk mitigating allow to assure that there are strong empirical evidences of effectiveness of the futures market of Brazilian live cattle in protection against the prices risk of the spot market of Argentinian and Uruguayan steers. Complementarily, it was analyzed the hypothesis of the futures market efficiency. The results present empirical evidence of a stochastic relationship common in long-term between spot and futures prices, and efficiency in predicting short-term price, which suggest that the future contracts of Brazilian live cattle in the BM&FBovespa allow adequate hedge of price for the Argentinian and Uruguayan steers in spot market. / Na Argentina e no Uruguai, diversas tentativas de negociação de contratos futuros e de índice de preços de carne bovina foram frustradas ao longo dos anos, tendo os derivativos lançados fracassado, em um curto espaço de tempo, por falta de liquidez. Esse cenário, somado a outras particularidades do mercado físico da carne bovina, torna o gerenciamento de risco de preços um problema para os agentes econômicos que atuam nessa cadeia produtiva. Nesse contexto, emergiu a seguinte questão: a proteção cruzada com contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo (BM&FBovespa) é efetiva para a administração do risco de preços dos novilhos de corte no mercado a vista argentino e uruguaio? Com a finalidade de responder a essa questão, propôs-se a verificar se é possível mitigar o risco da volatilidade de preços no mercado a vista dos novilhos de corte argentinos e uruguaios por meio do cross hedging no mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na BM&FBovespa. Para tanto, foram utilizados modelos estáticos e dinâmicos de estimação da razão de cross hedge ótima e efetividade em mitigação do risco. Os resultados do teste de hipóteses de mitigação do risco permitiram assegurar que são fortes as evidências de efetividade do mercado futuro do boi gordo brasileiro na proteção contra o risco de preços do mercado a vista dos novilhos argentinos e uruguaios. Complementarmente, verificou-se a hipótese de eficiência do mercado futuro. Os resultados apresentaram evidências de um relacionamento estocástico comum no longo prazo entre os preços a vista e futuros, e de eficiência na predição dos preços no curto prazo, o que sugere que os contratos futuros de boi gordo brasileiro da BM&FBovespa permitem uma trava adequada de cotação-preço para os novilhos argentinos e uruguaios no mercado a vista.