過去三、四十年來世界各地發生金融危機的頻率較從前高出許多，探究原因後可以發現，與各國陸續開放金融自由化以及國際金融市場快速成長有極大的關係。除此之外，在各國中，金融危機的發生通常具備一些共同特徵，諸如危機發生時會導致資金外流、匯率大幅貶值、股市重挫、產出減少、進出口減少…等影響。因此，面對這一波次級房貸風暴，本研究也即將檢視美國在總體經濟數據上各方面的表現，希望能利用1970年以來已開發國家和開發中國家歷年來所發生的貨幣、銀行危機下所代表的各種總體經濟數據，經過轉化整理後，透過Logistic迴歸模型建立一個迴歸方程式，以了解金融危機的發生與實質匯率、進出口…等其他解釋變數之間的關聯，並利用此模型探測現階段次級房貸風暴對美國可能引發金融危機的機率值，以探討其合理性。 / We find that the frequencies of the financial crises are higher for the past forty years in the world. It is due to the financial liberalization and international financial markets which grow rapidly. Besides, financial crises usually company with some common characteristics such as capital outflow, the depreciation of the foreign exchange, the shock of the stock market, the decreasing of the production and so on. Therefore, in order to understand this financial crisis of the subprime mortgage, this thesis surveys the economic data of developed countries and developing countries from 1970s and figures out the performances of these countries under balance-of -payments crises or banking crisis. We use the logistic regression model and transform the data to construct a regression model. After understanding the relationship between the explaining variables, we use this model to predict the probability of possible financial crisis in U.S. under the subprime mortgage crisis and then discuss the rationality of those predicted values.

中華民國第十任總統選舉結果於民國八十九年三月十八日揭曉，這場眾所矚目的選舉終告落幕，然而對選舉研究工作者而言卻是新的開始。選舉預測居選戰中重要的一環，也是研究選舉的學者關心的問題，更提供了一個驗證選民投票行為理論的絕佳機會，近來國內相關論述已有相當成果。但由於它在投票結束，便有答案，其挑戰程度不言而喻。因此，如何結合理論、方法及事實三者為一體的努力，對選舉預測更是別具意義。 本篇研究之範圍，是以公元2000年總統大選為例，對選舉預測工作做更深層的探討，且檢驗邏輯斯預測模型（Logistic Regression Model）及模糊統計（Fuzzy Statistics）分析在本次總統選舉的預測力，考量本次總統選舉中各項可能影響選情的因素，進一步建構選舉預測模式，然而兩種預測模式的初步預測結果並不佳，經過棄保效應的可能性調整後，預測誤差已大幅降低，其中模糊統計（Fuzzy Statistics）分析預測結果經棄保效應調整後，與實際開票結果相當接近，因此與邏輯斯預測模型相較，模糊統計分析的應用對未表態選民投票意向的預測力較佳。一套完整的選舉預測模型研究，應包含問卷設計、抽樣訪問、資料處理、加權除錯、模型設計與預測評估等整套研究流程，然而在本次總統大選中，由於三強激戰，影響選情因素相當複雜，最後此兩種選舉預測模式皆無法獲致精確的預測結果。因此，我們期待選舉預測模型的建構，能突破主客觀環境的侷限，進一步達到「準」與「穩」的要求。 / With the successful staging of the 2000 presidential elections in Taiwan, scholars have been presented with a new opportunity to test their theories. Electoral predictions are an important field within the study of elections and have been among the most keenly studied questions over the past few years. Unlike many other research topics, there is an absolute standard for election predictions: the election results. Thus, combining theory, methodology, and facts to obtain a meaningful result is no simple task. This thesis attempts to predict the 2000 presidential election using both a logistic regression model and a fuzzy statistics model. After constructing models which includes all kinds of different variables that might influence the electoral outcome, we find that neither the logistic regression model nor the fuzzy statistics model is particularly accurate. However, after accounting for the effects of strategic voting, model error decreases dramatically. In particular, after including provisions for strategic voting, the fuzzy statistics model is improved to the point that its predictions are extremely close to the actual outcome. Thus, we show that the fuzzy statistics model is superior to the logistic regression model in analyzing the vote choices of undecided voters. Research on electoral predictions should include such aspects as questionnaire design, sampling, interviewing, data processing, weighting, data cleaning, model design, and evaluation of the prediction. However, because this election featured a particularly intense three way race, the factors affecting the electoral outcome were both numerous and intertwined in complex ways. Unfortunately, it is impossible to evaluate our electoral predictions of the two models precisely. We hope that in the future, election prediction models will be able to break through these environmental limitations and achieve more accurate and stable predictions.

<p>Small firms often have inadequate access to the capital necessary for sucessful management. The Swedish Government introduced in the mid-1990s allowance rules that facilitate retention of profit for sole proprietorships and partnership firms. The tax credits arising from the allowances give certain benefits as a source of financing compared to traditional forms of credits. Among the more essential benefits are that the payment for some parts of the tax credit can be put on hold almost indefinitely, or alternatively never be paid. The firms are free to use these means, and the responsibility of future payment of the postponed tax debt stays with the individual firms. The comprehensive purpose of the dissertation may be stated as to increase the understanding of small Swedish firms, especially sole proprietorships, utilizing possibilities for allowances for income smoothing and internal financing. At the beginning the dissertation describes case studies, comprising a smaller selection of microfirms. With a starting-point from the accounted and reported income-tax returns, alternative calculations are made where additional positive tax and finance effects appear possible to obtain. One purpose of these studies is to increase the insight regarding the possibilities of income smoothing and internal financing that arise from utilizing these allowances. </p><p>These studies also illuminate, to what extent and in what way they are being used in reality. Another objective of these studies is to give a more substantive insight into the technics behind the different allowances, appropriation to positive or negative interest rate allocation appropriation or dissolving of tax allocation reserve appropriation or dissolving of “expansion fund” Theories regarding the creation of resources, through building of capital, and theories on financial planning and strategy are studied. The purpose is to find support for the choice of theoretical grounded underlying independent variables that can be used in cross-sectional studies to explain the use of the possibilities of appropriations. Theories of finance that are of greatest interest, in the operationalisation of these variables, are theories that discuss the choices of different financing alternatives for small firms. The “pecking order theory”, describes the firm’s order of priority when choices of finance alternatives are made. The concept of “financial bootstrapping” expands the frame for different forms of financing choices that especially very small firms have at their disposal.</p><p>The last part of the theoretical frame deals with the phenomenon of “income smoothing,” which can be translated as leveling out profits/losses. A number of financial and non-financial variables are supported by and operationalised from these financial theories e.g., return on sales, capital turnover, quick ratio and debt-to-equity ratio, respectively age, gender and line of business. Cross-sectional studies are implemented for the taxation years of 1996 and 1999, on databases that have been extracted from Statistics Sweden. The group of 87,276 sole proprietorships included in the study were required to complete tax returns and pay taxes for the business activity according to the supporting schedule, N2, information from the sole proprietorships’ income statement and balance sheet in an accounting statement that comes with the income tax return form. The possibilities of allowances are considered as dependent variables. The intention of the cross-sectional studies is to survey and describe the utilization of possible allowances, with the support of the financial and non-financial independent variables. The connection of these variables to the decision of sole proprietorships to appropriate to the tax allocation reserve is also summarized in a logistic regression model. A number of theoretically based propositions are made for the purpose of observing how the variables are connected to the chances that sole proprietorships actually appropriate to this form of allowance. Appropriation to the tax allocation reserve stands out as the most practiced form of allowance. The studies also clarify that utilization varies among different forms of allowances, but that not all firms that have the prerequisites to utilize the possibilities really do so to the full. A further utilization of the different possibilities of allowances is often conceivable. For the sole proprietorships that are not utilizing these possibilities, the allowances should be considered eligible as a contribution to internal financing and to increase access to capital.</p>

Small firms often have inadequate access to the capital necessary for sucessful management. The Swedish Government introduced in the mid-1990s allowance rules that facilitate retention of profit for sole proprietorships and partnership firms. The tax credits arising from the allowances give certain benefits as a source of financing compared to traditional forms of credits. Among the more essential benefits are that the payment for some parts of the tax credit can be put on hold almost indefinitely, or alternatively never be paid. The firms are free to use these means, and the responsibility of future payment of the postponed tax debt stays with the individual firms. The comprehensive purpose of the dissertation may be stated as to increase the understanding of small Swedish firms, especially sole proprietorships, utilizing possibilities for allowances for income smoothing and internal financing. At the beginning the dissertation describes case studies, comprising a smaller selection of microfirms. With a starting-point from the accounted and reported income-tax returns, alternative calculations are made where additional positive tax and finance effects appear possible to obtain. One purpose of these studies is to increase the insight regarding the possibilities of income smoothing and internal financing that arise from utilizing these allowances. These studies also illuminate, to what extent and in what way they are being used in reality. Another objective of these studies is to give a more substantive insight into the technics behind the different allowances, appropriation to positive or negative interest rate allocation appropriation or dissolving of tax allocation reserve appropriation or dissolving of “expansion fund” Theories regarding the creation of resources, through building of capital, and theories on financial planning and strategy are studied. The purpose is to find support for the choice of theoretical grounded underlying independent variables that can be used in cross-sectional studies to explain the use of the possibilities of appropriations. Theories of finance that are of greatest interest, in the operationalisation of these variables, are theories that discuss the choices of different financing alternatives for small firms. The “pecking order theory”, describes the firm’s order of priority when choices of finance alternatives are made. The concept of “financial bootstrapping” expands the frame for different forms of financing choices that especially very small firms have at their disposal. The last part of the theoretical frame deals with the phenomenon of “income smoothing,” which can be translated as leveling out profits/losses. A number of financial and non-financial variables are supported by and operationalised from these financial theories e.g., return on sales, capital turnover, quick ratio and debt-to-equity ratio, respectively age, gender and line of business. Cross-sectional studies are implemented for the taxation years of 1996 and 1999, on databases that have been extracted from Statistics Sweden. The group of 87,276 sole proprietorships included in the study were required to complete tax returns and pay taxes for the business activity according to the supporting schedule, N2, information from the sole proprietorships’ income statement and balance sheet in an accounting statement that comes with the income tax return form. The possibilities of allowances are considered as dependent variables. The intention of the cross-sectional studies is to survey and describe the utilization of possible allowances, with the support of the financial and non-financial independent variables. The connection of these variables to the decision of sole proprietorships to appropriate to the tax allocation reserve is also summarized in a logistic regression model. A number of theoretically based propositions are made for the purpose of observing how the variables are connected to the chances that sole proprietorships actually appropriate to this form of allowance. Appropriation to the tax allocation reserve stands out as the most practiced form of allowance. The studies also clarify that utilization varies among different forms of allowances, but that not all firms that have the prerequisites to utilize the possibilities really do so to the full. A further utilization of the different possibilities of allowances is often conceivable. For the sole proprietorships that are not utilizing these possibilities, the allowances should be considered eligible as a contribution to internal financing and to increase access to capital.

<p>The main objective of this study was to identify ways in which transaction costs can be lowered to improve small-scale farmers&rsquo / participation in and returns from agricultural output markets, with specific reference to small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo province. This study hypothesizes that transaction costs are lower in informal spot markets and increase when small-scale farmers sell in more structured markets (formal markets). This study builds on transaction cost economics (TCE) to demonstrate how to overcome transaction cost barriers that small-scale mango farmers face in the agro-food markets. The approach to collect primary information was sequenced in two steps: first, key informant and focus group interviews were conducted and, secondly, a structured survey instrument was administered in two districts of Limpopo. A total of 235 smallscale mango farmers were interviewed. A binary logistic regression model was used to estimate the impact of transaction costs on the likelihood of households&rsquo / participation in formal (=1) and informal (=0) agro-food markets. STATA Version 10 was used to analyse the data. This study found that a larger proportion of male than female farming households reported participation in the formal markets, suggesting deep-seated gender differentiation in market participation. The average age of small farmers participating in formal markets is 52, compared to 44 for those in informal markets, implying that older farmers might have established stronger networks and acquired experience over a longer period. Farmers staying very far from the densely populated towns (more than 50 km) participate less in the formal markets than those staying closer (0 &ndash / 25 km and 26 &ndash / 49 km), which implies that the further they are from the towns, the less the likelihood of farmers selling in the formal markets. Farmers who own storage facilities and a bakkie (transportation means) participate more in formal markets compared to those who do not own these assets, which suggests that these farmers are able to store mangoes, retaining their freshness and subsequently delivering them to various agro-food markets on time. Households that participate in formal markets have high mean values of income and social grants. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets is less as income and social grants increase. This suggests that households do not invest their financial assets in order to overcome market access barriers. A large proportion of households that own larger pieces of arable land participate in the formal markets, which implies that they are able to produce marketable surplus. Households that have a high mean value (in Rand) of cattle participate more in formal markets than in informal markets. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets does not change with an increase in the value of its livestock. These findings suggest that households do not sell their cattle in order to overcome market access barriers. Reduced transaction costs for small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo should improve their participation in and returns from the agro-food markets. Policy interventions to support this need to focus on: access to storage and transportation facilities, enforcement of gender equity requirements in existing policies, and better access to information about markets.</p>

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of a conditional cash transfer program, Progresa, on school attendance in Mexican rural and urban areas. Within recent years, conditional cash transfer programs have become one of the most accepted remedies for poverty alleviation in many countries. Progresa was developed as an economic experi-ment, with randomized selection process, treatment groups and control croups. For this reason, the impact of Progresa is ideal for economic analysis. There are clear evidence of disparities between urban and rural school attendance rates in Mexico, hence the pro-gram’s effect on school attendance rates have been studied in the two regions. There are several reasons why one would expect different outcomes of the program on school at-tendance in rural and urban areas. Expected returns to education and the opportunity cost of investment in schooling in different regions are thought to affect the household’s optimization problem differently. The impact of Progresa on school attendance rates is estimated by a logit regression model analyzing household data within the household optimization framework. Mainly, Progresa has a positive impact on children’s school at-tendance. However, it may be concluded that Progresa has no significant effect for older children in rural areas. This result is assumed to be explained by the different conditions poor families face in different regions. If rural households’ optimization problem indeed looks different; this might suggest that the design of conditional cash transfer programs such as Progresa is crucially important depending on the region of implementation. / Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera det villkora välfärdsprogrammet Progresa och dess effekt på skolnärvaro i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden. Under senare år har villkora välfärdsprogram kommit att vara en av de mest accepterade formerna av bistånd för att minska fattigdom i de flesta länder. Progresa utvecklades utifrån ett ekonomiskt experiment, med en slumpmässig urvalsprocess samt en experiment- och kontrollgrupp. Med anledning av detta är Progresa ett utmärkt program att studera för ekonomisk analys. Skolnärvaron i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden varierar stort och av denna anledning har effekten av Progresa studerats i de båda regionerna. Det finns många anledningar till varför vi bör förvänta oss avvikande utfall. En förklaring kan vara att utbildningens förväntade avkastning och alternativkostnad påverkar hushållens optimeringsproblem olika. Effekten av Progresa på skolnärvaro är beräknad med en logit regressionsmodell där hushållsdata analyseras inom ramen för hushållets optimeringsproblem. Huvudsakligen har Progresa en positiv effekt på barns skolnärvaro. Dock, och vad som bör noteras, är det faktum att Progresa inte har en signifikant påverkan på äldre rurala barns skolnärvaro. Detta resultat antas förklaras av fattiga familjers olika förutsättningar i rurala och urbana områden. I det fall rurala familjers optimeringsproblem skiljer sig från urbana familjers optimeringsproblem, torde detta innebära att strukturen av ett villkorligt biståndsprogram, så som Progresa, är av största vikt och bör anpassas ändamålsenligt.

<p>The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of a conditional cash transfer program, Progresa, on school attendance in Mexican rural and urban areas. Within recent years, conditional cash transfer programs have become one of the most accepted remedies for poverty alleviation in many countries. Progresa was developed as an economic experi-ment, with randomized selection process, treatment groups and control croups. For this reason, the impact of Progresa is ideal for economic analysis. There are clear evidence of disparities between urban and rural school attendance rates in Mexico, hence the pro-gram’s effect on school attendance rates have been studied in the two regions. There are several reasons why one would expect different outcomes of the program on school at-tendance in rural and urban areas. Expected returns to education and the opportunity cost of investment in schooling in different regions are thought to affect the household’s optimization problem differently. The impact of Progresa on school attendance rates is estimated by a logit regression model analyzing household data within the household optimization framework. Mainly, Progresa has a positive impact on children’s school at-tendance. However, it may be concluded that Progresa has no significant effect for older children in rural areas. This result is assumed to be explained by the different conditions poor families face in different regions. If rural households’ optimization problem indeed looks different; this might suggest that the design of conditional cash transfer programs such as Progresa is crucially important depending on the region of implementation.</p> / <p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera det villkora välfärdsprogrammet Progresa och dess effekt på skolnärvaro i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden. Under senare år har villkora välfärdsprogram kommit att vara en av de mest accepterade formerna av bistånd för att minska fattigdom i de flesta länder. Progresa utvecklades utifrån ett ekonomiskt experiment, med en slumpmässig urvalsprocess samt en experiment- och kontrollgrupp. Med anledning av detta är Progresa ett utmärkt program att studera för ekonomisk analys. Skolnärvaron i mexikanska rurala och urbana områden varierar stort och av denna anledning har effekten av Progresa studerats i de båda regionerna. Det finns många anledningar till varför vi bör förvänta oss avvikande utfall. En förklaring kan vara att utbildningens förväntade avkastning och alternativkostnad påverkar hushållens optimeringsproblem olika. Effekten av Progresa på skolnärvaro är beräknad med en logit regressionsmodell där hushållsdata analyseras inom ramen för hushållets optimeringsproblem. Huvudsakligen har Progresa en positiv effekt på barns skolnärvaro. Dock, och vad som bör noteras, är det faktum att Progresa inte har en signifikant påverkan på äldre rurala barns skolnärvaro. Detta resultat antas förklaras av fattiga familjers olika förutsättningar i rurala och urbana områden. I det fall rurala familjers optimeringsproblem skiljer sig från urbana familjers optimeringsproblem, torde detta innebära att strukturen av ett villkorligt biståndsprogram, så som Progresa, är av största vikt och bör anpassas ändamålsenligt.</p>

<p>The main objective of this study was to identify ways in which transaction costs can be lowered to improve small-scale farmers&rsquo / participation in and returns from agricultural output markets, with specific reference to small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo province. This study hypothesizes that transaction costs are lower in informal spot markets and increase when small-scale farmers sell in more structured markets (formal markets). This study builds on transaction cost economics (TCE) to demonstrate how to overcome transaction cost barriers that small-scale mango farmers face in the agro-food markets. The approach to collect primary information was sequenced in two steps: first, key informant and focus group interviews were conducted and, secondly, a structured survey instrument was administered in two districts of Limpopo. A total of 235 smallscale mango farmers were interviewed. A binary logistic regression model was used to estimate the impact of transaction costs on the likelihood of households&rsquo / participation in formal (=1) and informal (=0) agro-food markets. STATA Version 10 was used to analyse the data. This study found that a larger proportion of male than female farming households reported participation in the formal markets, suggesting deep-seated gender differentiation in market participation. The average age of small farmers participating in formal markets is 52, compared to 44 for those in informal markets, implying that older farmers might have established stronger networks and acquired experience over a longer period. Farmers staying very far from the densely populated towns (more than 50 km) participate less in the formal markets than those staying closer (0 &ndash / 25 km and 26 &ndash / 49 km), which implies that the further they are from the towns, the less the likelihood of farmers selling in the formal markets. Farmers who own storage facilities and a bakkie (transportation means) participate more in formal markets compared to those who do not own these assets, which suggests that these farmers are able to store mangoes, retaining their freshness and subsequently delivering them to various agro-food markets on time. Households that participate in formal markets have high mean values of income and social grants. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets is less as income and social grants increase. This suggests that households do not invest their financial assets in order to overcome market access barriers. A large proportion of households that own larger pieces of arable land participate in the formal markets, which implies that they are able to produce marketable surplus. Households that have a high mean value (in Rand) of cattle participate more in formal markets than in informal markets. However, this study found that the likelihood of a household&rsquo / s participation in the markets does not change with an increase in the value of its livestock. These findings suggest that households do not sell their cattle in order to overcome market access barriers. Reduced transaction costs for small-scale mango farmers in Limpopo should improve their participation in and returns from the agro-food markets. Policy interventions to support this need to focus on: access to storage and transportation facilities, enforcement of gender equity requirements in existing policies, and better access to information about markets.</p>

One of the difficult issues in detection theory is to design a robust detector that takes into account the actual distribution of the original data. The most commonly used statistical detection model for blind detection is Gaussian distribution. Specifically, linear correlation is an optimal detection method in the presence of Gaussian distributed features. This has been found to be sub-optimal detection metric when density deviates completely from Gaussian distributions. Hence, we formulate a detection algorithm that enhances detection probability by exploiting the true characterises of the original data. To understand the underlying distribution function of data, we employed the estimation techniques such as parametric model called approximated density ratio logistic regression model and semiparameric estimations. Semiparametric model has the advantages of yielding density ratios as well as individual densities. Both methods are applicable to signals such as watermark embedded in spatial domain and outperform the conventional linear correlation non-Gaussian distributed.

One of the difficult issues in detection theory is to design a robust detector that takes into account the actual distribution of the original data. The most commonly used statistical detection model for blind detection is Gaussian distribution. Specifically, linear correlation is an optimal detection method in the presence of Gaussian distributed features. This has been found to be sub-optimal detection metric when density deviates completely from Gaussian distributions. Hence, we formulate a detection algorithm that enhances detection probability by exploiting the true characterises of the original data. To understand the underlying distribution function of data, we employed the estimation techniques such as parametric model called approximated density ratio logistic regression model and semiparameric estimations. Semiparametric model has the advantages of yielding density ratios as well as individual densities. Both methods are applicable to signals such as watermark embedded in spatial domain and outperform the conventional linear correlation non-Gaussian distributed.