Parmi les risques naturels et les catastrophes majeures, les tremblements de terre sont l'un des plus meurtriers, préjudiciables et imprévisibles de tous. Avec une constante augmentation de l'impact dans les économies des pays et dans le nombre de victimes, les tremblements de terre modernes coûtent des dizaines de milliards de dollars et tuent en moyenne 35000 personnes par an dans le monde.Avec l'étendue des dommages observés après les tremblements de terre d'intensité modérée à forte de ces dernières décennies, la sensibilisation auprès des catastrophes naturelles a considérablement augmenté. Il y a donc une demande croissante d'analyses détaillées des risques sismiques pour renforcer la préparation en amont et mieux planifier la réponse après les séismes. Cette évaluation des risques nécessite non seulement l'estimation de l'aléa sismique, mais aussi la représentation de la capacité des structures à résister face au mouvement du sol: tel est l'objectif des évaluations de la vulnérabilité sismique. En raison de la complexité inhérente à l'estimation de l'aléa, des vulnérabilités et leur interaction, la quantification du risque sismique est une tâche ardue, et estimer des impacts réalistes dus aux grands tremblements de terre ne peut se faire qu'approximativement.L'estimation de la vulnérabilité sismique des bâtiments à l'échelle urbaine, étant un élément crucial dans l'évaluation des risques, est elle-même une tâche longue, coûteuse et compliquée, en particulier dans les régions où l'aléa sismique est modéré à faible et où la mobilisation des ressources pour l'évaluation sismique est réduite même si le risque est non négligeable.Nous proposons dans la première partie de cette étude un moyen d'effectuer une estimation rapide à l'aide des données fiables du bâtiment. Ces données sont plus facilement disponibles au niveau régional que l'information habituellement exigée par les méthodes traditionnelles. Avec l'utilisation d'un ensemble de données du bâtiment existant à Grenoble (France), avec une classification EMS98 de la vulnérabilité, et en employant deux techniques de fouille de données différentes - Association Rule Learning et Support Vector Machine - nous avons développé des proxies de la vulnérabilité sismique. Ceux-ci ont été appliqués à la France entière en utilisant des informations de base à partir de bases de données nationales (information de recensement) et les données issues du traitement des images satellites et des photographies aériennes pour produire une carte de la vulnérabilité à l'échelle nationale. Cette méthode macroscopique pour évaluer la vulnérabilité est facilement applicable dans le cas d'un manque d'informations concernant les caractéristiques structurelles du parc immobilier.La partie qui clôture ce travail est préconisée pour le calcul des pertes liées aux tremblements de terre et à l'analyse et la réduction des incertitudes. L'estimation complète des scénarios de tremblement de terre avec un nombre probable de bâtiments endommagés dans une ville européenne typique est présentée par la suite. Une analyse complète des incertitudes est réalisée à chaque étape, et l'incertitude combinée finale est calculée. Les principales sources de variabilité sont représentées. Dans la dernière partie, l'évolution des dommages et des risques lorsque des améliorations structurelles sont affectées aux bâtiments est examinée. Des évaluations des pertes économiques sont effectuées pour la France en utilisant des cartes de risques réglementaires pour des différentes périodes de retour. En particulier, pour cinq villes françaises, le modèle de perte proposé est utilisé pour concevoir un plan de réaménagement et de modernisation du parc immobilier en réalisant des études coûts-bénéfices pour les différents types de plans d'intervention structurelle. Des scénarios d'investissements optimaux sont calculés, qui peuvent servir d'appui aux décisions stratégiques concernant l'atténuation du risque sismique en France. / Among the natural hazards and major catastrophes, earthquakes are one of the most deadly, damaging and unpredictable of all. With increasing impacts in countries' economies and casualties, modern earthquakes cost in average tens of billons of dollars and kill 35,000 people per year worldwide (USGS). The planet is experiencing the consequences of the large urban population growth of the last century.With the extensive damage observed after the moderate-to-strong earthquakes of the last decades, awareness of natural catastrophes has considerably increased. There is therefore, a growing demand for detailed seismic risk analysis to strengthen disaster risk mitigation and response. This risk assessment requires not only the estimation of the seismic hazard, but also the representation of the structures' capacity to withstand the seismic ground motion: this is the objective of seismic vulnerability assessments.Due to the inherent complexity of estimating hazard, vulnerabilities and their interaction, seismic risk quantification is a daunting task and estimating realistic impacts due to large earthquakes may only be done approximately.The estimation of the seismic vulnerability of buildings at an urban scale, while a crucial element in any risk assessment, is itself an expensive, time-consuming, and complicated assignment, especially in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions where the mobilization of resources for the seismic evaluation is reduced, even if the hazard is not negligible. We propose in the first part of this study a way to perform a quick estimation using convenient, reliable building data that are readily available regionally instead of the information usually required by traditional methods. Using a dataset of existing buildings in Grenoble (France) with an EMS98 vulnerability classification and by means of two different data mining techniques - association rule learning and support vector machine - we developed seismic vulnerability proxies. These were applied to the whole France using basic information from national databases (census information) and data derived from the processing of satellite images and aerial photographs to produce a nationwide vulnerability map. This macroscale method to assess vulnerability is easily applicable in case of a paucity of information regarding the structural characteristics and constructional details of the building stock.The closing part of this work is advocated to the calculation of earthquake losses and to the analysis and reduction of uncertainties. A comparison between predicted and observed ground motions and intensities in France is presented, and prediction equations producing the smallest residuals are highlighted. The full estimation from earthquakes scenarios to probable number of damaged buildings in a typical European city is presented afterwards. A comprehensive analysis of uncertainties is carried on at every step, and the final combined uncertainty is calculated. The major sources of variability are depicted and recommendations on how to efficiently reduce them are proposed. In the last part, the evolution of damage and risk when structural improvements are performed to buildings is reviewed. Economic loss assessments are performed for France using regulatory hazard maps for different time horizons. In particular, for five French cities the proposed loss model is used to design retrofitting schemes by carrying out cost-benefit studies for different types of structural intervention plans. Optimal investment scenarios are calculated, which may support strategic decisions regarding the risk mitigation in France.

[pt] A estimação dos fluxos de potência e perdas técnicas nos sistemas de subtransmissão é um grande desafio para as distribuidoras pela importância no planejamento e operação do sistema. Por isso, surge a necessidade de contar com modelos que permitam simular estas grandezas, para o adequado planejamento do sistema. Neste trabalho é proposto e implementado um modelo de estimação de fluxos de potência e perdas técnicas em um sistema de subtransmissão baseado na desagregação de potência da demanda importada da rede de transmissão. A metodologia envolve a determinação de fatores de desagregação por barra associados à importação total de potência, estimação dos fluxos de potência DC usando a matriz de sensibilidade ramo-barra caraterística da rede elétrica e, finalmente, a estimação das perdas elétricas. O sistema IEEE 24 barras foi utilizado para o caso de estudo. Neste caso, a rede elétrica de 230 kV foi tratada como a rede de transmissão e a rede de 138 kV como a rede de subtransmissão. Dados de geração e carga realistas, com base horária e ao longo de um ano, foram utilizados para estimar os parâmetros dos modelos. Para avaliar os resultados, foram utilizadas métricas estatísticas e os resultados foram comparados com um modelo puramente estatístico, que correlaciona a importação total com as potências injetadas em cada barra, os fluxos nas linhas e as perdas totais. Os resultados obtidos indicaram que o modelo proposto ganha importância quando é possível controlar algumas injeções da rede elétrica, tornando-o mais dependente da rede elétrica. / [en] The estimation of the power flows and technical losses in the subtransmission systems is a great challenge for electricity distribution companies because of their importance in the planning and operation of the system. Therefore, there is the increasing need to have models that allow to simulate these variables for the proper planning of the system. In this work, a model of estimation of power flows and technical losses in a subtransmission system is proposed and implemented; this model is based on the power disaggregation of the imported demand from the transmission network. The methodology involves the determination of buses disaggregation factors associated with total power import, estimation of DC power flows using the bus-branch sensitivity matrix of the network and finally the estimation of the electrical losses. The IEEE 24 bus system was used for this study case. In this case, the 230 kV power grid was treated as the transmission network and the 138 kV network as the subtransmission network. Realistic generation and loading data, based on hourly time and over the span of a year, were used to estimate the parameters of the models. In order to evaluate the results, statistical metrics were used and the results were compared with a purely statistical model, which correlates the total imports with the injected power in each bus, line flows and total losses. The obtained results indicate that the proposed model gains importance when it is possible to control some of the injections into the power grid, turning it more dependent of the power grid.

[pt] Em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica, um dos maiores desafios para as distribuidoras é a estimação das perdas técnicas. De acordo com a bibliografia, as perdas elétricas nas redes de distribuição em diferentes países podem variar aproximadamente de 3 porcento e 25 porcento da energia fornecida à rede, o que pode significar grandes impactos nos custos do sistema. Especificamente no Brasil, a adequada avaliação das perdas elétricas fornece informação importante para que o regulador estabeleça as tarifas de distribuição de energia elétrica. Na literatura há diversos métodos para a estimação das perdas técnicas de energia, mas devido à dificuldade na modelagem dos equipamentos do sistema, assim como a falta de informação da energia consumida pelas cargas, as estimações podem acarretar em grandes erros. Para tratar este problema, esta dissertação propõe um novo método baseado em um modelo de carga polinomial modificado para estimar as perdas elétricas, considerando medições de tensão e potência na subestação e, quando disponíveis, medições de tensão e potência demandadas pelas cargas. A contribuição principal do método proposto é o uso da informação da topologia da rede e a correlação entre a potência consumida pelas cargas e as grandezas medidas na subestação. Para detalhar e analisar o desempenho do método proposto são utilizados três sistemas elétricos. Os resultados das estimações são comparados com os resultados obtidos por outros métodos de referência encontradas na literatura e em aplicações práticas. / [en] In electrical distribution systems, one of the greatest challenges for utilities is the estimation of technical losses. According to the literature, energy losses throughout the world s electric distribution networks may vary from country to country approximately between 3 percent and 25 percent of the electricity provided, which may cause great impacts on the electrical system costs. Specifically in Brazil, the appropriate evaluation of the energy losses provides valuable information for the regulator to establish the energy distribution tariffs. In literature, there are different ways for estimating energy losses, but due to the difficulty for modeling precisely the equipment of the system, as well as the lack of information regarding the energy consumed of each load, the energy losses estimation may lead to huge errors. To deal with this problem, it is proposed a new method based on a modified load model, taking into account the measurements of voltages and power at the substation and, when available, the measurements of voltages and power demanded by loads with meters installed. The main contribution of the proposed method is the use of the network information and the correlation between the power consumed by the loads and the voltage and power supplied by the substation. In order to detail and analyze the performance of the proposed method, three electric systems are used. The results of the estimations given by the proposed method are compared to those obtained with other methods found in literature and in practical applications.

Submitted by Angela Maria de Oliveira (amolivei@uepg.br) on 2018-11-26T20:27:20Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Joel Zubek.pdf: 7864320 bytes, checksum: f2e6f06e6ec1c27abd616c5e845d97f8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-26T20:27:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Joel Zubek.pdf: 7864320 bytes, checksum: f2e6f06e6ec1c27abd616c5e845d97f8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-10 / Entre os principais problemas relacionados à conservação ambiental em áreas agrícolas está a degradação dos solos por meio da erosão hídrica que ocasiona a remoção das camadas mais férteis de solo e o transporte de partículas de solo para as partes mais baixas do relevo, o que contribui para o assoreamento dos recursos hídricos. Portanto, o presente estudo teve como objetivo diagnosticar processos erosivos em uma área de produção agrícola localizada na Fazenda Escola Capão da Onça – FESCON – UEPG, mediante análise de dados obtidos por Sistema de Navegação Global por Satélite (Global Navigation Satellite System - GNSS) e Aeronaves Remotamente Pilotadas (Remotely Piloted Aircraft - RPA). Para a realização do trabalho foi implantada uma grade regular com pontos de 45 x 45 metros de distância, totalizando 140 pontos em uma área de aproximadamente 26 hectares. Foram realizados georreferenciamento dos pontos da grade regular por meio de receptores de sinal GNSS Geodésico pós-processado e a coleta de atributos do solo (textura do solo). Os dados de textura do solo levantados na grade regular proporcionaram gerar modelos para o cálculo do fator de erodibilidade do solo para área de estudo. Com os valores altimétricos das coordenadas levantadas nos pontos da grade regular foi possível avaliar a precisão vertical de Modelos Numéricos do Terreno - MNT gerados por meio de dados obtidos com RPA. Foram avaliados os modelos gerados com dados obtidos por meio de equipamentos de RPA de asa fixa e multirotor com a distribuição de diferentes números de pontos de controle e sem pontos de controle. Mediante a análise estatística aplicada em relação entre a dispersão das diferenças altimétricas geradas nos MNT e os pontos da grade regular usados como referência, o MNT gerado com os dados de RPA asa fixa com pontos de controle apresentou o melhor resultado. Diante da constatação do melhor MNT foi modelado o fator topográfico para a área de estudo. A utilização de Sistema de Informação Geográfica - SIG proporcionou integrar todos os dados em um único ambiente computacional; gerar modelos por meio de interpolação; analisar a precisão dos modelos; implementar as equações para o cálculo dos fatores de erodibilidade e topográfico e também a Equação Universal de Perda de Solo Revisada (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation – RUSLE); além das representações das informações. O resultado obtido com o modelo gerado mediante o cálculo da RUSLE apresentou a estimativa que mais de 70 % da área de estudo está com baixa suscetibilidade à erosão ou ligeira perda de solo. O restante da área de estudo apresentou perda de solos acima de 10 tonelada/ha.ano, indicando média e alta suscetibilidade à erosão. / Among the major problems related to environmental conservation in agricultural areas is soil degradation through water erosion, which causes the removal of the most fertile soil layers and the transport of soil particles to the lower parts of the relief, which contributes to the silting up of water resources. Therefore, the present study aimed to diagnose erosive processes in an area of agricultural production located at Fazenda Escola Capão da Onça - FESCON - UEPG, by analyzing data obtained by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA).For the accomplishment of the work a regular grid with points of 45 x 45 meters of distance was implanted, totaling 140 points in an area of approximately 26 hectares. Georeferencing of the regular grid points was carried out by means of post-processed GNSS signal receivers and the soil attributes collection (soil texture). The soil texture data collected in the regular grid provided the model for calculating the soil erodibility factor for the study area. With the altimetric values of the coordinates raised at the points of the regular grid it was possible to evaluate the vertical accuracy of Numerical Terrain Models generated through data obtained with RPA. The models generated with data obtained by means of fixed-wing and multirotor RPA equipment with the distribution of different numbers of control points and without control points were evaluated. by means of the statistical analysis applied in relation between the dispersion of the altimetric differences generated in the Numerical Terrain Model and the points of the regular grid used as reference, the Numerical Terrain Model generated with the fixed wing RPA data with control points presented the best result. In view of the finding of the best NTM, the topographic factor was modeled for the study area. The use of Geographic Information System GIS provided to integrate all the data in a unique computational environment; generate models through interpolation; analyze the accuracy of the models; implement the equations for the calculation of the erodibility and topographic factors and also the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE); beyond the representations of the information. The result obtained with the model generated by RUSLE calculation showed that more than 70% of the study area is low susceptibility to erosion or slight soil loss. The rest of the study area presented soil loss above 10 ton / ha.year, indicating medium and high susceptibility to erosion.

過去台灣的地震保險一直受到忽略，因此缺乏完整的地震損失資料。本研究主要的目的是利用統計方法來模擬地震損失，估計地震損失所造成的直接損失金額，並且進一步討論如何控制地震超額損失保險的預期損失。 本研究推論災害性地震發生頻率是一個負二項分配﹔而損失幅度則利用所求出的房屋倒塌數模型，再假設每一棟倒塌房屋的個設價格作加總而得，因此模擬出地震損失，可以估計出預期地震損失，並且可以進一步建立地震損失機率分布情況。 對於控制地震超額損失保險的預期損失，本研究提出以理賠上限與理賠起始點兩種方式來作損失控制。實證結果發現，利用理賠上限作超額再保險會比較可以控制地震損失。同時也可以利用模擬出的結果來決定應該如何設立理賠上限與理賠起始點。 / The earthquake insurance in Taiwan is ignored for many years, so that the data of earthquake is lacked. This study applied the statistical methods to simulate the earthquake losses in Taiwan, and estimated the loss amount, and discussed how to control the expected loss of excess-of-loss insurance. The frequency of disaster earthquake is a negative binomial distribution. And the severity of each disaster earthquake is to sum up the assumed dollar amount of each damaged houses. Compounding the frequency of earthquake with the severity of earthquake, we can simulate the losses of earthquake. Hence the expected earthquake losses and the probability density function of earthquake losses are built. In order to control the expected loss of excess-of-loss reinsurance, this study compared the results of the trigger level and the capped level of the reinsurance claim, and concluded that the capped level is better than trigger level in controlling the expected loss of excess-of-loss insurance.

No description available.

近年、自動車の電動化が加速しており、車両駆動を担うモータのさらなる効率向上が求められている。高効率モータ設計に向けて、主な損失の１つである鉄損予測の精度向上が求められている。本論文では、鉄損を構成する各種損失の中から、実用的なモデル化手法が確立していない、異常渦電流損に関して、磁気測定から影響を与える諸因子を検討した。また、得られた知見に基づき、モータ鉄損予測にあたり、実用的なモデルを開発した。 / In recent years, electrification of automobiles has accelerated, and further improvement in efficiency of motors that drive the vehicles is required. For high-efficiency motor design, it is important to improve the accuracy of iron loss estimation, which is one of the main losses in the motor. In this paper, we investigated influencing factors of excess loss, which is one element that consists iron loss and has not been established as practical estimating modeling, from the magnetic measurement. In addition, based on the obtained knowledge, a practical model was developed for motor iron loss estimation. / 博士(工学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University