This thesis demonstrates that consumer leverage can contribute to financial crises such as the subprime mortgage crisis characterised by increased bankruptcy prospects and tightened credit access. A recession may follow even when the leveraged sector is not a production sector and can be triggered by seeming positive events such as a technological innovation and a relaxation of borrowing conditions. The first preliminary chapter updates the Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) approach with financial frictions in the production sector to a two-sector model with consumption and housing. It shows that credit frictions in the capital financing decisions of housing firms are not sufficient to capture the negative consumer experience with falling housing prices and relaxed credit access during the recession. The second chapter brings the model closer to the subprime mortgage crisis by shifting credit constraints to the consumer mortgage market. Increased supply of houses lowers asset prices and reduces the value of the real estate collateral used in the mortgage which in turn worsens the leverage of indebted consumers. A relaxation of borrowing conditions turns credit-constrained households into a potential source of disturbances themselves when market optimism allows them to raise their leverage with little downpayment. Both cases demonstrate that although households are not production agents, their worsening debt levels can trigger a lasting financial downturn. The third chapter develops a chained mortgage contracts model where both homeowner consumers and the financial institutions that securitize their mortgage loan are credit-constrained. Adding credit constraints to the financial sector that provides housing mortgages creates opportunities for risk sharing where banks shift some of the downturn onto indebted consumers in order to hasten their own recovery. This consequence is especially evident in the case of relaxed credit access for banks. Financial institutions repair their debt position relatively fast at the expense of consumers whose borrowing ability is squeezed for a long period despite the fact that they may not be the source of the disturbance. The result mirrors the recent subprime mortgage crisis characterised by a sharp but brief decline for banks and a protracted recovery for mortgaged households.

Stress testing is a macro-prudential analytical method of assessing the financial system's resilience to adverse events. This thesis describes the methodology of the stress tests and illustrates the stress testing for credit and market risks on the real bank-by-bank data in the two Balkan countries: Croatia and Serbia. Credit risk is captured by the macroeconomic credit risk models that estimate the default rates of the corporate and the household sectors. Setting-up the framework for the countries that were not much covered in former studies and that face the limited availability of data has been the main challenge of the thesis. The outcome can help to reveal possible risks to financial stability. The methods described in the thesis can be further developed and applied to the emerging markets that suffer from the similar data limitations. JEL Classification: E37, G21, G28 Keywords: banking, credit risk, default rate, macro stress testing, market risk

M. Comm. / Although there has been several work done on monetary policy and inflation in South Africa, this dissertation is intended to add and expand on the existing literature on the subject with data dating back to 1970. The dissertation was inspired by recent international research that has indentified that a large Bayesian VAR model normally performs better than the normal SVAR model. Given that there has already been differing conclusions in literature on whether interest rates are effective as a tool to control inflation, there is therefore an opportunity to assess monetary policy using a different and more robust modelling framework. The choice of a sample is informed by the fact that prior to inflation targeting and within the period under consideration; interest rates remained a core factor in monetary policy management. Some of the literature will be discussed in detail in chapter 2. This dissertation will introduce the large BVAR model with 14 variables in the South African economy. In comparison, the SVAR model suffers from the curse of dimensionality that is eliminated by using more variables with the Large Bayesian VAR with the response functions of all 14 variables. The objective is therefore to determine whether interest rate changes in South Africa have a meaningful and desired effect on inflation. A substantial amount of recent literature was done within the environment of inflation targeting; however, our study intends to measure more the responsiveness of interest rates and other macro variables to monetary policy. The period of inflation targeting in South Africa provides more useful data and evidence on the responsiveness of the macro variables given the direct policy approach it represents versus the previous regime and hence it is covered in more detail in the dissertation. We also assess, in the process, the main drivers behind inflation in South Africa, in an effort to establish whether the country suffers from cost- push or demandpush. The type of inflation should also assist in providing recommendations on the appropriate response to inflation.

Magister Scientiae - MSc / The objectives of this study were: To review and understand flow and transport processes in unsaturated zones. In this study, particular emphasis is placed on understanding mechanisms that cause non-uniform (preferential) flow for two casestudies, namely the Cape Flats sandy environment and the Mpumalanga Highveld fractured rock environment. To evaluate the adequacy of models, in particular MACRO 5.0, in simulating flow and transport in the vadose zone, by making use of two case study sites (Cape Flats and Mpumalanga Highveld). Of particular importance is the evaluation of transfer coefficients to represent fluid and solute exchange between macropores and matrix. To run a sensitivity analysis with MACRO 5.0 in order determine which input model parameters are the most relevant in describing the effects of preferential flow in water and solute transport.

Student Number : 9910899R - MSc dissertation - School of Mining - Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment / The field of risk management has been growing in popularity over the last few years. Risk management is not a new concept but is becoming more important since the release of the Turnbull report. This research reviews all the risk management systems currently available in the mining industry. The focus of this research is from a Mining Economics as well as a Minerals Resource Management perspective. It is the Mineral Resource Managers primary task to ensure that the orebody is extracted in the most optimum method to ensure the maximum return for the shareholder. In order to do that, the Resource Manager needs a good understanding of the ore body as well as the extraction methods and the cost of mining. Recently it has become important to understand the risks around the mining process as well. It was found that the principal risk associated with mining is extracting the orebody sub economically and hence the research focus was on optimisation. Three tools have been designed to facilitate the determination of optimisation. The above three tools have been tested in practice. The first section of research focuses on how risk is defined in the industry. There is also an analysis what a Mining Economist and A Mineral Resource Manager will encounter in terms of risk. The second section covers the Basic Mining Equation (BME) and its uses. The research looks at using stochastic methods to improve optimisation and identifying risk. The @Risk software was used to analyse 5 years of historical data from an existing mine and predicting the future, using the distributions identified in the history. The third section is based on the use of the Cigarette Box Optimiser (CBO), where the cost volume curve and the orebody signature are used to determine optimality in returns. It also looks at various forms of the BME and how it can be used to identify risk. The section also covers quantification of risk from a probability perspective using systems reliability logic. The fourth section centres on the Macro Grid Optimiser (MGO), which considers the spatial differentiation of the orebody and determining the optimality through, an iterative process. The last section analyses risk from a Mining Economics perspective. It considers the use of the ‘S-curve’ to determine risk. The section also includes a high-level shaft infrastructure optimisation exercise. As an overall conclusion, it was found that the biggest risk associated with mining could be to extract the orebody sub economically. Some ore bodies could yield double the return that they intend to extract. In order for that to happen, the extraction program should undergo some form of optimisation. This will ensure that the optimal volume, cut-off, selectivity and efficiencies are met. There is no greater risk than to mine an ore body out without making an optimal profit. We are in mining to make money! Cash is king!

The concept of a hub airport has evolved widening its scope as a national civil aviation policy-making tool, due to the ability to deliver wider socio-economic benefits to a country. However, not all airports can be converted into hubs. This research proposes a methodological approach to structural analysis of the airport industry, that could be applied to determine the competitive position of an airport in a given aviation network and devise airport strategies and national policy measures to improve the current position of the airport. This study presents a twelve-group taxonomy of airports, which analyses the changing geography of the airport industry in the East (Asia and The Middle East). Multivariate data have been used in a two-step Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering exercise which represents three airport strategies: namely, degree-of-airport-activity (size and intensity of operations), network strategies (international and domestic hub), and the market segmentation strategies (service and destination orientation). Principal Component Analysis has been utilised as a data reduction tool. The study confirms the general hypothesis that a sound macro environment and liberalised approach to economic regulation in the air transport industry are important for successful hub operations. In addition, it sheds light on the fact that while the factors of geographical advantage, economic development, urbanisation, tourism and business attractiveness, physical and intellectual infrastructure, and political and administrative frameworks, are all basic prerequisites (qualifiers) for successful hubbing in the region, those factors would not necessarily guarantee a hub status unless the governments are also committed to develop the sector and take timely decisions (differentiators) to allow airports to benefit from the first mover advantage. Application of the proposed taxonomy was tested on a case study of the major international airport of Sri Lanka, to provide policy inputs to develop the airport that is currently identified as being overshadowed by the mega hubs in the region.

Objetivando-se estudar o efeito da suplementação mineral no desenvolvimento reprodutivo de bubalinos do desmame aos 24 meses de idade, utilizaram-se 110 búfalos, distribuídos em três experimentos (A, B e C), que foram criados em três propriedades (GA, GB e GC) no Estado do Pará. Os experimentos A e B foram realizados em áreas de terra firme com pastagens cultivadas (Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu) em manejos rotacionado e extensivo, respectivamente, com capacidade de suporte e perfil nutricional da forragem, semelhantes. O experimento C foi desenvolvido em áreas de várzea na Ilha de Marajó, com pastagens nativas constituídas, principalmente, por Panicum sp, Axonopus sp e Paspalum sp. Em todas as propriedades dividiram-se os animais em dois grupos (experimento A: GA1 e GA2, experimento B: GB1 e GB2, e experimento C: GC1 e GC2) que foram mantidos a pasto com diferentes suplementações minerais. Os animais foram pesados a cada 28 dias e receberam distintos suplementos minerais: grupos GA2 e GB2 mistura mineral, a ser testada, indicada para búfalos; grupos GA1 e GB1 - misturas minerais utilizadas rotineiramente na fazenda e recomendadas para bovinos; GC1 animais não suplementados e GC2 mistura mineral indicada para búfalos criados em áreas de várzea com águas salobras. As sobras da mistura mineral foram recolhidas semanalmente para se calcular o consumo real da mesma. A cada 56 dias as circunferências escrotais, comprimentos, larguras e espessuras dos testículos foram mensurados, como também foi avaliada a disponibilidade quali-quantitativa da forragem. Aos 22 meses de idade, 77 búfalos foram submetidos a colheitas de sêmen semanais, nos meses de maio e junho de 2005 (n = 616 amostras de sêmen), através de eletroejaculação para se analisar as características físico-morfológicas do sêmen. No plasma seminal foram, determinadas as concentrações de Ca, P, Mg, Cu, Co, Fe, Zn e Mn. Após 14 meses de estudos constatou-se que tanto os animais do grupo GA2 como os do GB2 obtiveram um maior ganho de peso médio diário (p<0,0001). O grupo GA1 consumiu uma maior (p<0,0001) quantidade de mistura mineral, enquanto que para os grupos GB1 e GB2 não houve diferença significativa. As medidas testiculares do grupo GA2 foram significativamente maiores, ao final do estudo, do que as do grupo GA1, demonstrando com isso um efeito da suplementação mineral sobre estas variáveis. Para o grupo GB2 a espessura, a largura e o volume testicular foram significativamente maiores. As demais medidas não sofreram variações significativas. No experimento C não houve variação entre o peso e o ganho de peso para ambos os grupos. Isso provavelmente esta relacionado ao baixo consumo de mistura mineral pelo grupo GC2. Essa pequena diferença do peso entre os grupos GC1 e GC2 foi acompanhada por uma diferença não significativa nas medidas testiculares dos grupos. Deduz-se que devido as altas correlações positivas entre a circunferência escrotal (CE), o peso corporal e demais medidas dos testículos, a CE possa ser utilizada para predizer o tamanho testicular. Conclui-se ainda que a suplementação mineral testada exerceu efeito positivo sobre o peso e o ganho de peso médio diário dos animais dos experimentos A e B. Evidenciou-se médias significativamente maiores para as características físicas do sêmen dos animais que receberam a suplementação mineral testada (GA2) com exceção da concentração espermática. Para as características morfológicas do ejaculado, observou-se que os animais do grupo GA1 apresentaram médias significativamente maiores para o número total de espermatozóides anormais. Não foram verificadas diferenças significativas nas características físicas e morfológicas do sêmen dos grupos GB1 e GB2, com exceção do volume do ejaculado e da motilidade progressiva que foram significativamente maiores para os animais do grupo GB2. Observaram-se correlações significativas, porém baixas, entre a CE a algumas características do ejaculado. Conclui-se, portanto que houve influência da suplementação mineral nas características físicas e morfológicas do sêmen dos animais do experimento A, com melhores resultados para o grupo GA2, que consumiram a suplementação mineral testada; constatou-se, ainda, uma tendência de uma melhor qualidade no sêmen dos animais do grupo GB2. Foi possível averiguar que não houve diferença significativa para os constituintes macro e microminerais do plasma seminal de búfalos jovens, criados em pastejo rotacionado, exceto para os níveis de manganês que foram significativamente maiores para os animais do grupo GA2. Obtiveram-se os seguintes valores para Ca (14,32 ± 6,40 mg/dl), P (3,86 ± 3,30 mg/dl), Mg (11,64 ± 7,02 mg/dl), Zn (4,23 ± 1,35 &mu;g/ml), Fe (8,23 ± 2,38 &mu;g/ml), Cu (0,17 ± 0,07 &mu;g/ml), Co (0,06 ± 0,04 &mu;g/ml) e Mn (0,08 ± &mu;0,06 g/ml) contidos no plasma seminal de búfalos criados em pastejo rotacionado. Os animais do grupo GB2 apresentaram maiores níveis de fósforo e cobalto do que os do grupo GB1, que por sua vez obtiveram maiores teores de manganês. Encontraram-se os seguintes valores Ca (12,16 ± 2,97 mg/dl), P (4,01 ± 4,46 mg/dl), Mg (11,37 ± 6,48 mg/dl), Zn (4,02 ± 1,39 &mu;g/ml), Fe (6,73 ± 1,80 &mu;g/ml), Cu (0,07 ± 0,03 &mu;g/ml), Co (0,14 ± 0,06 &mu;g/ml) e Mn (0,17 ± 0,11 &mu;g/ml) contidos no plasma seminal de búfalos criados em sistema extensivo. Muito embora alguns minerais tenham apresentado correlações significativas com algumas características do ejaculado, essas foram baixas. Portanto não se observou uma variação quali-quantitativa nas concentrações físicas e morfológicas do ejaculado de búfalos jovens criados em pastejo rotacionado e sistema extensivo, em função da concentração de minerais no plasma seminal. / To objectify the study of the effect of mineral supplementation in the reproductive development of buffaloes of wean in the 24 months of age, were used 110 buffaloes, distributed in three experiments (A, B e C) created in three farms (GA, GB e GC) in the Para State. The experiments A e B were realized in areas of firm soil with cultivated pasture (Brachiaria brizantha cv. Marandu) in rotational and extensive management, respectively, with similar capacity of support and nutritional profile of the forage. The experiment C was developed in tilled plain areas in Marajo Island, with native pasture basically formed by Panicum sp, Axonopus sp e Paspalum sp. In all farms the animals were divided in two groups (A: GA1 e GA2 experiment, B: GB1 e GB2 experiment, and C: GC1 e GC2 experiment) which were maintained in the pasture with different mineral supplements. The animals were pondered in each 28 days and received different mineral supplements: GA2 and GB2 groups mineral blend, to be tested, indicated to buffaloes; GA1 and GB1 groups mineral blend used in a regular procedure in the farm and recommended to bovines; GC1 group not supplemented animals and GC2 group mineral blend indicated to buffaloes created in tilled plain areas with salutary waters. The remaining mineral blends were collected weekly to calculate the real use of the blends. In each 56 days the scrotal circumferences, lengths and widths of the testis were measured, and was evaluated the availablebility of the quality and the quantity of the forage, as well. In the 22 month of age, 77 buffaloes were submitted to weekly semen collects, in May and June of 2005 (n = 616 semen samples), trough electroejaculation to analyze the semen physic and morphologic characteristics. In the seminal plasma were determined the Ca, P, Mg, Cu, Co, Fe, Zn e Mn concentration. After 14 months of research both animal groups (GA2 and GB2 groups) got larger diary medium weight gain (p<0,0001). The GA1 group has consumed a larger (p<0,0001) quantity of mineral blend, although to the GB1 and GB2 groups there wasnt any significative difference. The testicular measurements of GA2 group were significatively larger, at the end of the research, as the GA1 group, proving that the effects of mineral supplement on these variants. To the GB2 group the thickness, the width and the testicular volume were significatively larger. The others measurements havent significant variations. In the C experiment there wasnt any variation between the weight and gain of weight to both groups. This is probably connected to low use of mineral blend by GC2 group. This insignificant difference of the weight between GC1 and GC2 group was followed by an insignificant difference in the testicular measurements of the groups. Due to high positive correlations between the scrotal circumference (SC), the weight of the body e others measurements, deduce that the SC can be used to predict the testicular size. It can be concluded, as well, that the tested mineral supplement carried out a positive effect on the weight and the gain of diary medium weight of the animals in the experiments A and B. The research proved significant bigger mean rates to the physical characteristics of the animals semen that received the tested mineral supplement (GA2) with exception of spermatic concentration. To the morphological characteristics of semen, it observed that the GA1 animal group showed significant mean rates larger to the total number of abnormal sperm. Significant differences werent noted in the physical and morphological characteristics of the semen of GB1 and GB2 groups, with exception of the volume of the semen and of the motility progressive which were significatively larger to the animals of GB2 group. Significant, but low correlations between the SC and some characteristics of the semen were observed. Consequently, it can be concluded, there were influence of the mineral supplement in the physical and morphological characteristics of the animals semen of A experiment, with better results to GA2 group , that consumed the tested mineral supplement; a tendency of a better quality of the animals semen of the GB2 group animals. Was possible to verify there werent important difference to the macro and micro mineral constituents of the seminal plasma of young buffaloes, created in rotational pasture system, except to the levels of manganese which were significatively larger to the GA2 group animals. The next values were obtained: to Ca (14,32 ± 6,40 mg/dl), P (3,86 ± 3,30 mg/dl), Mg (11,64 ± 7,02 mg/dl), Zn (4,23 ± 1,35 &mu;g/ml), Fe (8,23 ± 2,38 &mu;g/ml), Cu (0,17 ± 0,07 &mu;g/ml), Co (0,06 ± 0,04 &mu;g/ml) e Mn (0,08 ± 0,06 &mu;g/ml) contained in the seminal plasma of the buffaloes created in rotational pasture system. The GB2 group animals introduced larger levels phosphorus and cobalt than the GB1 group, which obtained larger values of manganese. The following values were also discovered: Ca (12,16 ± 2,97 mg/dl), P (4,01 ± 4,46 mg/dl), Mg (11,37 ± 6,48 mg/dl), Zn (4,02 ± 1,39 &mu;g/ml), Fe (6,73 ± 1,80 &mu;g/ml), Cu (0,07 ± 0,03 &mu;g/ml), Co (0,14 ± 0,06 &mu;g/ml) e Mn (0,17 ± 0,11 &mu;g/ml) contained in the seminal plasma of the buffaloes created in extensive system. In spite of some minerals have presented significant correlations with some characteristics of the semen, these ones were lows. Then a variation of the quality and the quantity of physical and morphological concentrations of the semen of young buffaloes created in rotational pasture system and extensive system werent observed.

Over the last 150 years the natural nighttime environment has been drastically altered by the proliferation of artificial light. The amount of artificial light at night is on the increase, and there is a current trend to replace older lighting with more energy efficient types such as light emitting diodes (LEDs) or ceramic metal halide; in Cornwall, UK, there has been a relatively recent replacement of the street lighting, from low pressure sodium to ceramic metal halide. Alongside the increasing amount of artificial nighttime light, recent research has highlighted declines in macro moth numbers. Given the well-known ‘flight-to-light’ behaviour of moths, and the negative effects this behaviour can have, alongside other known and potential ways in which nighttime light can affect moths, the increasing amount of artificial light in the environment is a suspected contributor to the declines. It is particularly important to understand how modern lighting technologies will impact upon moths, as different spectra of light are known to vary in terms of how attractive they are. As a means to determine the potential impact of different street lighting types on moths, particularly the ceramic metal halide lighting rolled out in Cornwall, UK, we compared the attractiveness to macro moths, of a number of increasingly used, energy efficient, street lighting types. We found that shorter wavelength metal halide lighting attracted significantly more individuals and species of moth than longer wavelength high pressure sodium lighting. In a second experiment, we also found ceramic metal halide lighting to be more attractive to macro moths than LED lighting. Reduced emissions of short wavelength UV light was deemed the likely reason behind the fewer macro moths attracted to the high pressure sodium and LED lighting. Interestingly, we also found striking differences in the relative attractiveness of the different lighting types to different moth groups. The metal halide lighting attracted significantly more Noctuidae than high pressure sodium lighting, whereas both high pressure sodium and metal halide lighting were equally attractive to Geometridae. Understanding accurately the extent to which different groups of moth are attracted to different wavelengths of light could be useful in determining the impact of artificial light on moth populations. In addition to impacting moths through attraction, artificial light has the potential to alter the day length as perceived by organisms, which at mid- to high latitudes is utilised by certain species as an abiotic cue to ensure the coincidence of development with favourable environmental conditions. Due to a paucity of knowledge on how raised ambient nighttime light levels affect moths and the trophic levels with which they interact, we carried out analyses into the impact of nighttime light on the winter moth and its host plant oak; a well-studied model system, where synchrony between moth egg hatch and oak budburst is important for the moth’s survival. Firstly we carried out an analysis looking at the relationship between the amount of nighttime light and the date of oak budburst. Spatially referenced budburst dates were matched with satellite imagery of nighttime lighting and average spring temperature data, and the relationship between the variables was analysed. Model predictions suggested that oak budburst occurs earlier in brighter areas. In addition, the predicted advance of budburst in brighter areas was still apparent when analysing only the data points that fell outside of large urban areas, where the urban heat island effect is likely reduced. The findings suggested that artificial nighttime light may be causing an advance in oak budburst. To follow up the spatial analysis we carried out a field experiment. We used light cages that simulated various nighttime lighting scenarios to test whether oak budburst and winter moth egg hatch were affected by low intensity light at night. In contrast to the spatial analysis, there was no significant relationship found between light treatment and the phenology of either oak budburst or winter moth egg hatch. However, there was a suggestion in the data that the higher buds of the oak saplings emerged earlier in the yellow light treatment, highlighting the need for further research into the potential impact of artificial nighttime light on phenology and species interactions. In conclusion, the findings of this research project provide information useful to those seeking ecologically sensitive lighting solutions, and also highlight a potential tool to assist in determining whether light at night is a causative factor behind apparent moth declines. In addition, they suggest that artificial light at night may be affecting the phenology of an ecological system at a national scale. Finally, this research project has highlighted the complexity of the ecological impacts of artificial light at night, and also a need for further research.

Pela primeira vez incêndios florestais são identificados em uma associação de fácies contendo a Flora Dicroidium nos sedimentos avermelhados do Triássico Médio (Ladiniano) na parte sul da Bacia do Paraná (Formação Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul). A extensão geográfica dessa assembleia de plantas foi, assim, estendida no Gondwana brasileiro. As análises por petrografia orgânica, fluorescência, microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV) e microscopia eletrônica de varredura (tipo field emission gun - MEV-FEG) revelaram a presença recorrente de carvão vegetal (charcoal) na sucessão vertical de fácies relacionadas a um modelo deposicional de fluxos efêmeros de baixa densidade do tipo inunditos. O carvão microscópico (micro-charcoal) ocorre como fragmentos comuns em diferentes fácies, enquanto que o carvão vegetal macroscópico (macro-charcoal) é representado por espécimes tridimensionais de lenhos atribuídos a gimnospermas (Pinaceae?) e por fragmentos achatados, finos e alongados atribuídos a pteridospermas (rachises de Dicroidium?) Os valores médios de reflectância da inertinita entre 2,80-6,61 %Ro medidos nos fragmentos de macro-charcoal evidenciaram processos de queima de alta temperatura, envolvendo tanto incêndios na copa quanto na interface copa-superfície. A recorrência de fragmentos queimados em várias fácies do perfil estudado indica a ocorrência de incêndios regionais que afetaram tanto as comunidades meso-xerófilas distais quanto às associações proximais higro- mesófilas, compostas majoritariamente por espécimes da Flora Dicroidium. A integração dos resultados obtidos a partir das múltiplas análises dos fragmentos de charcoal é consistente com um teor de oxigênio atmosférico superior a 20%. / For the first time wildfires are reported from an association of different facies containing a Dicroidium flora from the Middle Triassic (Ladinian) red beds in the southern part of the Paraná Basin (Santa Maria Formation, Rio Grande do Sul state). The geographical extension of the Dicroidium plant assemblage has thus been extended in the Brazilian Gondwana. Analyses through petrography, fluorescence microscopy, scanning (SEM) and field emission gun scanning electron microscopy (FEG-SEM) revealed recurrent charcoal presence in a vertical facies succession of depositional cycles related to ephemeral prograding low density flows. Microscopic charcoal occurs as common fragments within different facies whereas macroscopic charcoal is represented by tridimensional wood specimens assigned to gymnosperms (Pinaceae?) and by flattened, thin, elongated remains assigned to pteridospermophytes (rachises of Dicroidium?). Average reflectance values between 2.80-6.61 %Ro measured in the macro-charcoals evidenced burning processes of high temperature, involving fires both in the crown and in the crown-surface interface. The recurrence of charcoal in several facies of the studied profile indicates regional wildfires, which affected hinterland, meso-xerophyllous coniferous assemblages and marginal hygro-mesophyllous Dicroidium-like assemblages. The integration of results obtained from the multiple charcoal analyses is consistent with atmospheric oxygen content higher than 20%.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar influências do Fit Estratégico para o alcance de acordos em negociações de Fusões e Aquisições (F&A). A metodologia envolveu pesquisa qualitativa com suporte quantitativo para desenvolver estrutura analítica que integrasse elementos de F&A e Negociação, permitindo identificar e avaliar 115 variáveis em 20 casos reais de negociações de F&As, 10 com Acordo Alcançado e 10 com Acordo Não Alcançado. Embora com limitações, o estudo alcançou os objetivos propostos identificando quatro Macrorrelações de Influência (MRI) principais: Existência de Fit Estratégico influencia positivamente a chance de acordo, através das Sinergias, assim como sua ausência influencia negativamente; Riscos e Impedimentos integram a Equação de Valor para o Comprador, quando eles ameaçam a captura de valor, podem inviabilizar a chance de acordo; Pressões Indutoras influenciam positivamente a chance de acordos em operações de F&As; e, Interesses Críticos Convergentes são condição precedente para o alcance de acordos em operações de F&As. Esta dissertação contribui para o desenvolvimento de uma visão integrada entre F&A e Negociação, permitindo uma conduta mais consciente, consistente e estratégica para alcançar acordos. Atenção particular é dada à MRI que envolve Fit Estratégico. Além de demonstrar ser forte fator de influência (82% dos casos com Fit atingiram acordo), a estrutura analítica quantitativa utilizada se revelou robusta (os resultados observados nos 20 casos confirmam estudo anterior com 218 casos de Shelton, 1988), apresentando aptidão para ser convertida em ferramenta de suporte à decisão, já que permite avaliar potencial sinérgico entre empresas e nichos de mercado. / The objective of this work is to analyze the influences of Strategic Fit in order to reach agreements in Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) negotiations. The method involved a qualitative research with quantitative support to develop an analytical framework that integrates elements of M&A and Negotiation, allowing to identify and evaluate 115 variables in 20 actual cases of M&A negotiations of Which 10 Reached a Deal, and 10 Did Not Reach a Deal. Although with limitations, the study achieved its proposed objectives identifying four macro-relations of influence (MRI): Strategic Fit presence positively influences the chance of an agreement, through Synergies and its absence has a negatively influence; Risks and Impediments are part of the Value Equation to the Buyer, when threatening the capture of value they can prevent the chance of agreement; Inducing Pressures positively influences the chance of agreements in M&A transactions; and Critical Converging Interests is a pre-condition to reach agreements in M&A operations. This dissertation contributes to the development of an integrated view between M&A and Negotiation, enabling a more cognizant, consistent and strategic behavior in order to reach agreements. Particular attention is given to the MRI that involves Strategic Fit, as it proved a strong influencing factor (82% of cases with Strategic Fit reached an agreement). As well, the quantitative analytical framework used showed to be robust (results in the 20 cases studied in here confirmed a previous study by Shelton in 1988 of 218 cases) indicating potential to become a decision-supporting tool, since it allows the synergy potential evaluation between companies and market niches.