This dissertation, titled “Flexibility in European Wage Structure and its implications for the European Unemployment,” studies the problem of high rates of unemployment in Europe during the last few decades through the optic of European wage behavior. It examines the European wage structure – within and between European countries – to find out factors that drive wages and thereby, unemployment rates in European countries. A conventional view of European problem of high unemployment argues that European wages are explained by cross-country differences in certain labor market policies and institutions, and that the policies and institutions at the country-level are the principal source of the problem. This dissertation argues instead that European wages are explained by differences in macroeconomic performances and in levels of international competitiveness between countries and also between sectors within the countries, and by certain continental and global level factors, and that a full understanding of the effects of those factors is necessary to explain the European problem of high unemployment. By applying numerical techniques, namely a combination of cluster analysis and discriminant function analysis, this dissertation finds that European wages are driven by factors pointed out by the dissertation, which also explain the high rates of unemployment in Europe over the last few decades. / text

As modificações geradas no âmbito das decisões de políticas econômicas nacionais das últimas décadas atentaram para o papel da estabilidade macroeconômica no desempenho das economias de mercado. O controle da inflação constitui-se no objetivo primordial das autoridades monetárias que, a partir dos anos 1990, encontraram na adoção de metas de inflação um modo mais eficiente para atingir a estabilidade de preços. Segundo a literatura convencional contemporânea, os resultados do regime de metas de inflação em economias avançadas e emergentes garantem, diretamente, uma redução dos níveis e da volatilidade das taxas de inflação, uma ancoragem das expectativas inflacionárias e menores custos da desinflação em termos do produto. Entretanto, acredita-se que a intensidade e os impactos desses efeitos podem ser diferenciados ou comprometidos quando aplicados à realidade dos países emergentes. Fundamentadas nas visões críticas das implicações do regime de metas de inflação à evolução das economias emergentes, as discussões teóricas visaram expor as definições gerais do regime de metas de inflação e as questões estruturais da dinâmica macroeconômica dos mercados emergentes. Constatou-se que a preponderância dos mecanismos de transmissão da taxa de câmbio sobre a inflação, os desequilíbrios ficais, financeiros e externos, e as características de vulnerabilidade e instabilidade macroeconômicas dos países emergentes podem dificultar o funcionamento do regime de metas de inflação. Essencialmente, a avaliação empírica dos efeitos de metas de inflação sobre o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes evidenciou que, além deste regime não apresentar relevância estatística na explicação das taxas de inflação, de crescimento do produto e de juros, os movimentos da economia internacional parecem definir as condições de estabilidade macroeconômica nessas economias. Portanto, concluiu-se que a implementação de metas de inflação não melhorou nem piorou o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes que adotaram este regime a partir dos anos 1990. Tal resultado contribui no debate atual sobre a dimensão das políticas de estabilidade de preços e, em especial, os efeitos de metas de inflação em economias emergentes. / The modifications generated in the scope of national economy policy decisions in the last decades had attempted for the role of macroeconomic stability in the performance of market economies. The control of inflation consisted in the monetary authorities’ primary objective that, from the 1990 years, had found in the adoption of inflation target a more efficient way to reach the price stability. According to conventional literature contemporary, the results of inflation targeting in the advanced and emerging economies guarantee directly a reduction of the level and the volatility in the inflation rates, an anchorage inflationary expectations and lesser costs of disinflation at the product. However, one gives credit that the intensity and the impacts of effects can be differentiated or biased when applied to reality of emerging countries. Based in the critical views of inflation target implications to emerging economies evolution, the theoretical quarrels had aimed at to display the inflation target general definitions and the structural matters of emerging market macroeconomic dynamic. One evidenced that the predominance of the exchange pass through inflation, the external, financial and fiscal disturbs, and the macroeconomic vulnerability and instability characteristics of emerging countries can difficult inflation target working. Essentially, the empirical evaluation of the inflation targeting effects on the macroeconomic performance of emerging countries demonstrated that, beyond this regime not to present statistics relevance in the inflation rates, growth product and interest rates explanation, the movements of the international economy seem to define the conditions of macroeconomic stability in these economies. Therefore, one concluded that the implementation of inflation target did not improve nor got worse the macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting emergent countries from 1990s. Such result contributes in the current debate on the prices stability policies and, in special, the effect of inflation target in emergent economies.

As modificações geradas no âmbito das decisões de políticas econômicas nacionais das últimas décadas atentaram para o papel da estabilidade macroeconômica no desempenho das economias de mercado. O controle da inflação constitui-se no objetivo primordial das autoridades monetárias que, a partir dos anos 1990, encontraram na adoção de metas de inflação um modo mais eficiente para atingir a estabilidade de preços. Segundo a literatura convencional contemporânea, os resultados do regime de metas de inflação em economias avançadas e emergentes garantem, diretamente, uma redução dos níveis e da volatilidade das taxas de inflação, uma ancoragem das expectativas inflacionárias e menores custos da desinflação em termos do produto. Entretanto, acredita-se que a intensidade e os impactos desses efeitos podem ser diferenciados ou comprometidos quando aplicados à realidade dos países emergentes. Fundamentadas nas visões críticas das implicações do regime de metas de inflação à evolução das economias emergentes, as discussões teóricas visaram expor as definições gerais do regime de metas de inflação e as questões estruturais da dinâmica macroeconômica dos mercados emergentes. Constatou-se que a preponderância dos mecanismos de transmissão da taxa de câmbio sobre a inflação, os desequilíbrios ficais, financeiros e externos, e as características de vulnerabilidade e instabilidade macroeconômicas dos países emergentes podem dificultar o funcionamento do regime de metas de inflação. Essencialmente, a avaliação empírica dos efeitos de metas de inflação sobre o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes evidenciou que, além deste regime não apresentar relevância estatística na explicação das taxas de inflação, de crescimento do produto e de juros, os movimentos da economia internacional parecem definir as condições de estabilidade macroeconômica nessas economias. Portanto, concluiu-se que a implementação de metas de inflação não melhorou nem piorou o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes que adotaram este regime a partir dos anos 1990. Tal resultado contribui no debate atual sobre a dimensão das políticas de estabilidade de preços e, em especial, os efeitos de metas de inflação em economias emergentes. / The modifications generated in the scope of national economy policy decisions in the last decades had attempted for the role of macroeconomic stability in the performance of market economies. The control of inflation consisted in the monetary authorities’ primary objective that, from the 1990 years, had found in the adoption of inflation target a more efficient way to reach the price stability. According to conventional literature contemporary, the results of inflation targeting in the advanced and emerging economies guarantee directly a reduction of the level and the volatility in the inflation rates, an anchorage inflationary expectations and lesser costs of disinflation at the product. However, one gives credit that the intensity and the impacts of effects can be differentiated or biased when applied to reality of emerging countries. Based in the critical views of inflation target implications to emerging economies evolution, the theoretical quarrels had aimed at to display the inflation target general definitions and the structural matters of emerging market macroeconomic dynamic. One evidenced that the predominance of the exchange pass through inflation, the external, financial and fiscal disturbs, and the macroeconomic vulnerability and instability characteristics of emerging countries can difficult inflation target working. Essentially, the empirical evaluation of the inflation targeting effects on the macroeconomic performance of emerging countries demonstrated that, beyond this regime not to present statistics relevance in the inflation rates, growth product and interest rates explanation, the movements of the international economy seem to define the conditions of macroeconomic stability in these economies. Therefore, one concluded that the implementation of inflation target did not improve nor got worse the macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting emergent countries from 1990s. Such result contributes in the current debate on the prices stability policies and, in special, the effect of inflation target in emergent economies.

As modificações geradas no âmbito das decisões de políticas econômicas nacionais das últimas décadas atentaram para o papel da estabilidade macroeconômica no desempenho das economias de mercado. O controle da inflação constitui-se no objetivo primordial das autoridades monetárias que, a partir dos anos 1990, encontraram na adoção de metas de inflação um modo mais eficiente para atingir a estabilidade de preços. Segundo a literatura convencional contemporânea, os resultados do regime de metas de inflação em economias avançadas e emergentes garantem, diretamente, uma redução dos níveis e da volatilidade das taxas de inflação, uma ancoragem das expectativas inflacionárias e menores custos da desinflação em termos do produto. Entretanto, acredita-se que a intensidade e os impactos desses efeitos podem ser diferenciados ou comprometidos quando aplicados à realidade dos países emergentes. Fundamentadas nas visões críticas das implicações do regime de metas de inflação à evolução das economias emergentes, as discussões teóricas visaram expor as definições gerais do regime de metas de inflação e as questões estruturais da dinâmica macroeconômica dos mercados emergentes. Constatou-se que a preponderância dos mecanismos de transmissão da taxa de câmbio sobre a inflação, os desequilíbrios ficais, financeiros e externos, e as características de vulnerabilidade e instabilidade macroeconômicas dos países emergentes podem dificultar o funcionamento do regime de metas de inflação. Essencialmente, a avaliação empírica dos efeitos de metas de inflação sobre o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes evidenciou que, além deste regime não apresentar relevância estatística na explicação das taxas de inflação, de crescimento do produto e de juros, os movimentos da economia internacional parecem definir as condições de estabilidade macroeconômica nessas economias. Portanto, concluiu-se que a implementação de metas de inflação não melhorou nem piorou o desempenho macroeconômico dos países emergentes que adotaram este regime a partir dos anos 1990. Tal resultado contribui no debate atual sobre a dimensão das políticas de estabilidade de preços e, em especial, os efeitos de metas de inflação em economias emergentes. / The modifications generated in the scope of national economy policy decisions in the last decades had attempted for the role of macroeconomic stability in the performance of market economies. The control of inflation consisted in the monetary authorities’ primary objective that, from the 1990 years, had found in the adoption of inflation target a more efficient way to reach the price stability. According to conventional literature contemporary, the results of inflation targeting in the advanced and emerging economies guarantee directly a reduction of the level and the volatility in the inflation rates, an anchorage inflationary expectations and lesser costs of disinflation at the product. However, one gives credit that the intensity and the impacts of effects can be differentiated or biased when applied to reality of emerging countries. Based in the critical views of inflation target implications to emerging economies evolution, the theoretical quarrels had aimed at to display the inflation target general definitions and the structural matters of emerging market macroeconomic dynamic. One evidenced that the predominance of the exchange pass through inflation, the external, financial and fiscal disturbs, and the macroeconomic vulnerability and instability characteristics of emerging countries can difficult inflation target working. Essentially, the empirical evaluation of the inflation targeting effects on the macroeconomic performance of emerging countries demonstrated that, beyond this regime not to present statistics relevance in the inflation rates, growth product and interest rates explanation, the movements of the international economy seem to define the conditions of macroeconomic stability in these economies. Therefore, one concluded that the implementation of inflation target did not improve nor got worse the macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting emergent countries from 1990s. Such result contributes in the current debate on the prices stability policies and, in special, the effect of inflation target in emergent economies.

In October 1999 the European Commission published the second progress report on the state of convergence of the Central- and Eastern European candidate countries (CEECs). The report encompasses an assessment, which is based on the three Copenhagen criteria. From an economic point of view, a country must have a functioning market economy and be able to withstand the competition on the European single market. In this paper we present a synthetic performance measure which helps to assess the economic preparedness of the ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to become members of the European Union (EU). With the aid of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) we construct a best practice frontier, which is supported by the best performing EU-countries and which serves as a benchmark for the candidate countries. The preparedness of any CEEC is measured as the relative distance to this frontier. The results confirm that the macroeconomic performance of most of the CEECs lies far behind the EU standards, in foreign trade some of the CEECs already perform better than some EU countries. Interestingly, we find out that some CEECs are already better prepared for the EMU than many EU member states. (authors' abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

The Peruvian economy has performed extraordinarily over the last 10 years. The 2012 per capita GDP is 66 percent above that of 2002, and more than double its 1992 level. In a long term perspective, the cumulative growth of GDP per capita recorded in the last 10 years has been the strongest since 1900. This is the «Peruvian miracle». This paper aims to find the determinants of the Peruvian miracle. In theory, countries’ macroeconomic performance can be determined by two factors: i) the «good (bad) luck effect» that relates to the international context, which may be favorable or unfavorable, and ii) the «good (bad) policies effects», associated with short-term macroeconomic policies or structural reforms,which are policies that alter the current development model. The hypothesis of this work is that the Peruvian miracle of the last 10 years has much to do with good luck, and, in part, with good short-term macroeconomic policies. / La economía peruana ha tenido un desempeño extraordinario en los últimos diez años. El PBI per cápita de 2012 está un 66% por encima del de 2002 y es más del doble de su nivel de 1992. En una perspectiva de largo plazo, el crecimiento acumulado del PBI per cápita registrado en los últimos diez años ha sido el más vigoroso desde 1900. Este es el «milagro peruano». Este artículo tiene como propósito encontrar los factores determinantes del milagro peruano. En teoría,el desempeño macroeconómico de los países puede estar determinado por dos razones: i) el «efecto buena (mala) suerte» que tiene que ver con el contexto internacional que puede ser favorable o desfavorable; y ii) el efecto «buenas (malas) políticas», asociado a las políticas macroeconómicas de cortoplazo o a las reformas estructurales, que son políticas que alteran el modelo de desarrollo vigente. La hipótesis de este trabajo es que el milagro peruano de los últimos diez años tiene mucho que ver con la buena suerte y, en parte, con las buenas políticas macroeconómicas de corto plazo.

This Ph.D. thesis comprises of two parts. Part I develops a framework to provide insights into the understanding of several political macro-economy issues related to fiscal policy making. This framework links the overall macroeconomic performance to the public spending and borrowing decisions. The key feature of this framework is that it makes a distinction between productive (e.g. public investment) and non-productive public spending (e.g. popular spending). It is shown that a high level of political instability may lead to myopic and populist policies and may be associated with less favorable macroeconomic performance in terms of not only future output and inflation but also future popular spending. Part I also suggests an alternative channel for expansionary or Non-Keynesian fiscal contractions based on the productivity enhancing role of productive public spending. It is shown that if the incumbent government reduces popular (productive) spending rather than productive (popular) spending, then Non-Keynesian (Keynesian) effects are achieved. Furthermore, it is shown that the favorable effects of public investment depends positively on its quality in this framework. Moreover, the net effect of productive spending financed by borrowing on the next period&#039 / s macroeconomic performance depends on the benefits of productive spending relative to the costs of borrowing. Even under a capital borrowing rule higher public investment may yield unfavorable effects and also it may not necessarily prevent the strategic use of public investment, even though it prevents strategic debt accumulation. Part II investigates the effects of macroeconomic instability on capital accumulation and economic growth in the Turkish economy over the 1963-1999 period. Descriptive and econometric (time series) analyses suggest that macroeconomic instability not only deters capital accumulation and economic growth but it may also reverse the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run.

Σκοπός της παρούσας διπλωματικής είναι να εξετάσει την επίδραση στην μακροοικονομική απόδοση της ανεξαρτησίας της Κεντρικής Τράπεζας. Αποτελεί ενδιαφέρον θέμα τόσο για τις νεοεισερχόμενες χώρες της Ευρωπαικής Ένωσης αλλά και για τις χώρες που εμφανίζουν ιδιαίτερα υψηλό πληθωρισμό. / The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the central bank independence on the macroeconomic performance.It is considered to be a very interesting topic not only for the 'newcomers'countries to the European Union but also for the countries with high inflation.

Cette recherche explore l’impact de l’apparition des milliardaires et de l’abondance pétrolière sur la trajectoire du développement de la Russie, du Kazakhstan, et de l’Azerbaïdjan. L’accumulation très contentieuse de patrimoines extraordinaires se déroule en parallèle avec la récession économique et la transformation des anciens propriétaires des biens d’état en main-d’œuvre mal payée, avec des milliers de manifestants dans les rues de la Russie en 2017, qui 100 ans après la Révolution de 1917, posent les mêmes questions : ‘qui est propriétaire de quoi ?’ et ‘quel est le niveau d’efficacité ?’. Afin d’apporter des ‘données concrètes’ au débat, l’étude : premièrement, analyse le processus de l’émergence des milliardaires, avec concentration sur la légitimité et l’équité sociale ; et deuxièmement, évalue leur performance comparative. En analysant la période de 9 ans de 2007 à 2015, il considère 300 entités juridiques, composées de 3 groupes d’entreprises : 100 de milliardaires, 100 du gouvernement, et 100 d’entrepreneurs. Afin de recueillir les différences de performance, l’étude utilise 25 mesures financières, dans 2 catégories - 5 paramètres de comptabilité et 20 ratios financiers. Simultanément, le paradoxe de sous-performance économique de ces 3 pays pétroliers du Continent Eurasiatique est examiné. Dans le but de surmonter les difficultés de la route axée sur les ressources naturelles, l’étude suggère : 1. un nouveau cadre analytique : un algorithme diagnostic et un modèle de processus ; 2. le modèle de croissance, incluant le pétrole et les institutions ; 3. le modèle empirique, exposant les liens des éléments d’analyse avec la dynamique macroéconomique. / Present research is an inquiry into implications of emergence of billionaires and petroleum-abundance on development trajectory of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. Highly-controversial accumulation of massive fortunes is going in parallel with economic downturn and transformation of collective owners of state assets into low-paid labor-force, with thousands of street-protesters in Russia in 2017, who 100 years after 1917 Revolution raise the same questions: ‘who owns what?’ and ‘how efficiently?’ In order to contribute ‘hard data’ to debate, current investigation: first, explores a process of formation of billionaires, focusing on legitimacy and social fairness; and second, evaluates their comparative performance. Analyzing 9-year 2007-15 timespan, it considers 300 legal entities, comprised by 3 groups of companies: 100 of billionaires, 100 of government, and 100 of entrepreneurs. To elicit performance differences this study refers to 25 financial metrics, composed by 2 categories – 5 core accounting parameters and 20 financial ratios. Alongside, a paradox of economic underperformance of these 3 petronations of Eurasian Continent is explored. To overcome adversities of resource-based path, the study suggests: 1. novel analytical framework: diagnosis algorithm and process model; 2. growth model’s setup, embracing petronational and institutional dimensions; and 3. empirical model, exposing links of analysis’ elements with macroeconomic dynamics.