New Consensus Models (NCMs) have been criticised by Post-Keynesians (PKs) for a variety of reasons. The paper presents a model that synthesises several of the PK arguments. The model consists of three classes: rentiers, firms and workers. It has a short-run inflation barrier derived from distribution conflict between these classes, which is endogenous in the medium run. Distribution conflict does not only affect inflation but also income shares. On the demand side the income classes have different saving propensities. We apply a Kaleckian investment function with expected sales and internal funds as major determinants. The paper analyses short-run stability and includes medium-run endogeneity channels for the Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU): persistence mechanisms in the labour market, adaptive wage and profit aspirations, investment in capital stock and cost effects of interest rate changes. The model is used to analyse NCM and PK policy assignments and policy rules. We argue that improved employment without increasing inflation will be possible, if macroeconomic policies are coordinated along the following lines: The central bank targets distribution, wage bargaining parties target inflation and fiscal policies are applied for short- and medium-run real stabilisation purposes. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

O desempenho agrícola está condicionado a fatores exógenos e endógenos ao setor. Os fatores exógenos têm origem tanto no exterior, frutos da evolução da economia internacional, como no próprio país, originando-se nas evoluções de caráter macroeconômico. Os fatores endógenos vinculam-se a iniciativas e eventos do próprio setor, muitas vezes em resposta aos fatores exógenos. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi recuperar a partir das intenções e ações governamentais ao intervir no setor agrícola direta ou indiretamente, como se conformaram as políticas agrícola e agrária brasileira e qual o papel da agricultura para o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro, a partir da década de noventa. A hipótese testada foi a de que as políticas agrícola e agrária no Brasil são conformadas em harmonia com a política macroeconômica. Para testar tal hipótese, analisamos a comportamento da política macroeconômica brasileira bem como esta se conforma diante do processo de globalização financeira, para depois então compreender o setor agrícola. A base empírica para esta investigação constituiu-se de pesquisas, estudos e dados secundários que tratam da temática. A análise de tais fontes empíricas permitiu concluir que a hipótese básica estava correta. Ou seja, a partir dos anos noventa, a conformação da política macroeconômica está condicionada ao processo de globalização financeira, e as políticas setoriais, particularmente as políticas agrícola e agrária, estão em harmonia com a política macroeconômica nacional. A inserção da agricultura na dinâmica do capital financeiro decorre de determinantes globais que conferem as características mais amplas à expansão do processo de acumulação, mas está condicionado às especificidades definidas pela forma como a economia brasileira se inseriu ao processo de globalização financeira. / The agricultural performance is subject to endogenous and exogenous factors to the sector. The exogenous factors have both home abroad, the fruits of developments in the international economy, as in their own country, causing around the character of macroeconomic developments. The endogenous factors linked to events and initiatives of the sector, often in response to exogenous factors. Therefore, the objective of this work was recovering from governmental actions and intentions to intervene in the agricultural sector directly or indirectly, as if shaped the policies and Brazilian agricultural land and what the role of agriculture for the Brazilian economic development, from the decade -nineties. The tested hypothesis was that the policies and agricultural land in Brazil are formed in line with macroeconomic policy. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the behavior of Brazilian macroeconomic policy and it conforms forward the process of financial globalization, then to understand the agricultural sector. The empirical basis for this research consisted of surveys, studies and secondary data dealing with the issue. The empirical analysis of such sources has concluded that the basic assumption was correct. That is, from the early nineties, the conformation of macroeconomic policy is subject to the process of financial globalization, and sectorial policies, particularly the agricultural and agrarian policies are in line with the national macroeconomic policy. The inclusion of agriculture in the dynamics of financial capital due to global determine the features that add to the expansion of the broader process of accumulation, but is subject to the specific defined by the way if the Brazilian economy entered the process of financial globalization.

O desempenho agrícola está condicionado a fatores exógenos e endógenos ao setor. Os fatores exógenos têm origem tanto no exterior, frutos da evolução da economia internacional, como no próprio país, originando-se nas evoluções de caráter macroeconômico. Os fatores endógenos vinculam-se a iniciativas e eventos do próprio setor, muitas vezes em resposta aos fatores exógenos. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi recuperar a partir das intenções e ações governamentais ao intervir no setor agrícola direta ou indiretamente, como se conformaram as políticas agrícola e agrária brasileira e qual o papel da agricultura para o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro, a partir da década de noventa. A hipótese testada foi a de que as políticas agrícola e agrária no Brasil são conformadas em harmonia com a política macroeconômica. Para testar tal hipótese, analisamos a comportamento da política macroeconômica brasileira bem como esta se conforma diante do processo de globalização financeira, para depois então compreender o setor agrícola. A base empírica para esta investigação constituiu-se de pesquisas, estudos e dados secundários que tratam da temática. A análise de tais fontes empíricas permitiu concluir que a hipótese básica estava correta. Ou seja, a partir dos anos noventa, a conformação da política macroeconômica está condicionada ao processo de globalização financeira, e as políticas setoriais, particularmente as políticas agrícola e agrária, estão em harmonia com a política macroeconômica nacional. A inserção da agricultura na dinâmica do capital financeiro decorre de determinantes globais que conferem as características mais amplas à expansão do processo de acumulação, mas está condicionado às especificidades definidas pela forma como a economia brasileira se inseriu ao processo de globalização financeira. / The agricultural performance is subject to endogenous and exogenous factors to the sector. The exogenous factors have both home abroad, the fruits of developments in the international economy, as in their own country, causing around the character of macroeconomic developments. The endogenous factors linked to events and initiatives of the sector, often in response to exogenous factors. Therefore, the objective of this work was recovering from governmental actions and intentions to intervene in the agricultural sector directly or indirectly, as if shaped the policies and Brazilian agricultural land and what the role of agriculture for the Brazilian economic development, from the decade -nineties. The tested hypothesis was that the policies and agricultural land in Brazil are formed in line with macroeconomic policy. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the behavior of Brazilian macroeconomic policy and it conforms forward the process of financial globalization, then to understand the agricultural sector. The empirical basis for this research consisted of surveys, studies and secondary data dealing with the issue. The empirical analysis of such sources has concluded that the basic assumption was correct. That is, from the early nineties, the conformation of macroeconomic policy is subject to the process of financial globalization, and sectorial policies, particularly the agricultural and agrarian policies are in line with the national macroeconomic policy. The inclusion of agriculture in the dynamics of financial capital due to global determine the features that add to the expansion of the broader process of accumulation, but is subject to the specific defined by the way if the Brazilian economy entered the process of financial globalization.

O desempenho agrícola está condicionado a fatores exógenos e endógenos ao setor. Os fatores exógenos têm origem tanto no exterior, frutos da evolução da economia internacional, como no próprio país, originando-se nas evoluções de caráter macroeconômico. Os fatores endógenos vinculam-se a iniciativas e eventos do próprio setor, muitas vezes em resposta aos fatores exógenos. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi recuperar a partir das intenções e ações governamentais ao intervir no setor agrícola direta ou indiretamente, como se conformaram as políticas agrícola e agrária brasileira e qual o papel da agricultura para o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro, a partir da década de noventa. A hipótese testada foi a de que as políticas agrícola e agrária no Brasil são conformadas em harmonia com a política macroeconômica. Para testar tal hipótese, analisamos a comportamento da política macroeconômica brasileira bem como esta se conforma diante do processo de globalização financeira, para depois então compreender o setor agrícola. A base empírica para esta investigação constituiu-se de pesquisas, estudos e dados secundários que tratam da temática. A análise de tais fontes empíricas permitiu concluir que a hipótese básica estava correta. Ou seja, a partir dos anos noventa, a conformação da política macroeconômica está condicionada ao processo de globalização financeira, e as políticas setoriais, particularmente as políticas agrícola e agrária, estão em harmonia com a política macroeconômica nacional. A inserção da agricultura na dinâmica do capital financeiro decorre de determinantes globais que conferem as características mais amplas à expansão do processo de acumulação, mas está condicionado às especificidades definidas pela forma como a economia brasileira se inseriu ao processo de globalização financeira. / The agricultural performance is subject to endogenous and exogenous factors to the sector. The exogenous factors have both home abroad, the fruits of developments in the international economy, as in their own country, causing around the character of macroeconomic developments. The endogenous factors linked to events and initiatives of the sector, often in response to exogenous factors. Therefore, the objective of this work was recovering from governmental actions and intentions to intervene in the agricultural sector directly or indirectly, as if shaped the policies and Brazilian agricultural land and what the role of agriculture for the Brazilian economic development, from the decade -nineties. The tested hypothesis was that the policies and agricultural land in Brazil are formed in line with macroeconomic policy. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the behavior of Brazilian macroeconomic policy and it conforms forward the process of financial globalization, then to understand the agricultural sector. The empirical basis for this research consisted of surveys, studies and secondary data dealing with the issue. The empirical analysis of such sources has concluded that the basic assumption was correct. That is, from the early nineties, the conformation of macroeconomic policy is subject to the process of financial globalization, and sectorial policies, particularly the agricultural and agrarian policies are in line with the national macroeconomic policy. The inclusion of agriculture in the dynamics of financial capital due to global determine the features that add to the expansion of the broader process of accumulation, but is subject to the specific defined by the way if the Brazilian economy entered the process of financial globalization.

No description available.

In the 2003 Treaty of Accession, the signatories agreed that all New Member States (NMS) that joined the European Union (EU) in 2004, would adopt the euro, even if no timetable was provided. Why have some NMS not been able to join the euro area even if they made serious attempts at the outset? What are the circumstances and policies in these countries that have led them not yet to adopt the euro? Has it been lack of political will on the part of the government, a strong voice in the opposition, a euroskeptic president, insufficient administrative capacity, or lack of policy learning? Though there is no consensus among economists as to whether or not adopting the euro in the short run is a good idea, an economic cost-benefit analysis would suggest that in the long run euro adoption is positive for NMS. Yet, macroeconomic analyses cannot explain the change in government policies that may lead to euro adoption. Political scientists have typically focused on collective identity, policy learning, ideas and knowledge transfer among central bankers and other political elites, as well as adjustment to global pressures and Europeanization. This political science literature is unable to provide a satisfactory explanation as to why the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland have not adopted the euro yet. I argue that the role of domestic politics is key to explaining the process of euro adoption in Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland: government policies, elections, electoral cycles as well as constitutional rules, veto points, central banks, public opinion and the media turn out to be crucial in explaining the lagging euro adoption process in these countries. / Graduate

Submitted by Marcus Firmato (mefirmato@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-03-27T02:33:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato VERSAO FINALEE.pdf: 1789212 bytes, checksum: df07f640df56386834f32376867cac67 (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Marcus, boa noite! Por gentileza, retirar a numeração da página do "Sumário", pois só pode aparecer da "Introdução" em diante. É só alterar e submeter novamente. Qualquer dúvida, entre em contato. Atenciosamente, Thais Oliveira. on 2018-03-27T22:29:11Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcus Firmato (mefirmato@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-04-02T20:14:33Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato VERSAO FINALEE.pdf: 1789212 bytes, checksum: df07f640df56386834f32376867cac67 (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Boa noite, Marcus! Para que possamos aprovar, há somente um detalhe que deve ser corrigido. A página do "Sumário" está numerada, e a numeração deve aparecer somente a partir da Introdução. Por gentileza, alterar e submeter novamente. No aguardo, obrigada. on 2018-04-04T23:49:40Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcus Firmato (mefirmato@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-04-09T19:57:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-04-09T19:59:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-04-10T12:40:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-10T12:40:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MPE FGV Dissertacao Marcus Firmato.pdf: 1789138 bytes, checksum: 9bfbb018c4a0b5c7d2d2be8bada44a7a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-15 / Este trabalho tem o intuito de avaliar o poder de estabilização das políticas fiscal e monetária, de um conjunto de países desenvolvidos e emergentes, a partir da utilização do resultado primário e do hiato de juros como proxies das políticas fiscal e monetária para estabilizar o hiato do produto. Testes foram realizados no sentido de identificar uma postura anticíclica ou procíclica das políticas fiscal e monetária do conjunto de países, eventual proeminência da estabilização de uma política em relação à outra, bem como comparar o poder de estabilização entre os dois grupos de países. Na medida em que variáveis institucionais, como o grau de transparência do Banco Central e o grau de transparência fiscal, são capazes de influenciar variáveis macroeconômicas, foi também avaliado se a transparência do Banco Central e a transparência fiscal influenciariam negativamente a volatilidade do hiato do produto e da inflação, contribuindo, consequentemente, com a estabilização monetária e fiscal. / This paper has the purpose of gauging fiscal and monetary stabilization policies of a specific set of developed and developing countries using the overall budget balance and the real interest rate gap as proxies of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the output gap. Tests were carried out to identify a prevailing stabilization or procyclical policy stance of the relevant set of countries, a potential prominence of one stabilization policy over the other, and also to compare the output stabilization effect between developed and developing countries. Since institutional factors, such as Central Bank transparency and fiscal transparency levels, can influence macroeconomic variables, it was also assessed if the Central Bank transparency and the fiscal transparency would have a negative impact on the output gap and inflation volatilities contributing, as a result, to the overall monetary and fiscal stabilization.

L’utilisation de modèles DSGE, construits à partir de comportements micro-fondés des agents économiques, s'est progressivement imposée aux institutions pour l'analyse macroéconomique du cycle d'affaires et l'évaluation de politiques, grâce à leur cohérence interne. La crise financière récente et la préoccupation que représente la persistance du chômage à un niveau élevé plaident en faveur de modèles qui tiennent compte des ajustements imparfaits de l'offre et de la demande sur les marchés du crédit et du travail. Pourtant, des modèles relativement rudimentaires dans leur représentation de ces marchés, comme celui de Smets et Wouters (2003-2007), reproduisent aussi bien les données que des modèles économétriques usuels. On peut donc légitimement s'interroger sur l'intérêt de prendre en compte ces frictions dans la spécification des modèles théoriques destinés à l'analyse économique opérationnelle. Dans cette thèse, je réponds à cette question en montrant que l'inclusion de mécanismes microfondés, spécifiques aux marchés du crédit et du travail peut modifier très significativement les conclusions obtenues à partir d'un modèle DSGE estimé, tant d'un point de vue positif que normatif. Pour cela, je construis un modèle à deux pays de la France et du reste de la zone euro, avec un reste du monde exogène, et l'estime avec et sans ces deux frictions, en utilisant une approche hayésienne. Par rapport aux modèles existant dans la littérature, je propose deux améliorations à la spécification du marché du travail. Premièrement, suivant Pissarides (2009), le salaire réel moyen est rendu rigide en supposant que seuls les nouveaux employés renégocient leur rémunération. Deuxièmement, le taux de participation sur le marché du travail est rendu endogène et le chômage involontaire, dans le sens où le bien-être des chômeurs est inférieur à celui des employés. L'inclusion de ce dernier mécanisme dans le modèle estimé fera cependant I'objet de travaux futurs.Afin de mettre en évidence les effets des frictions sur les marches du crédit et du travail, je soumets les quatre versions estimées du modèle à plusieurs exercices: une analyse en contributions des chocs structurels pendant la crise. L'évaluation de différentes règles de politique monétaire, la simulation contrefactuelle de la crise sous l'hypothèse d'un régime de change flexible entre la France et le reste de la zone euro et, enfin. la simulation de variante de TVA sociale. / Thanks to their internal consistency. DSGE models, built on microecoc behavor, have become prevalenl for business cycle and policy analysis in institutions. The recent crisis and governments' concern about persistent unemployment advocate for mechanism, capturing imperfect adjustments in credit and labor markets. However, popular models such as the one of Smets and Wouters (2003-2007), although unsophisticated in their representation of these markets, are able to replicate the data as well as usual econometric tools. It is thus necessary to question the benefits of including these frictions in theoretical models for operational use.ln this thesis, I address this issue and show that microfounded mechanisms specifiç to labor and credit markets can significantly alter the conclusions based on the use of an estimated DSGE model, fom both a positive and a normative perspective.For this purpose, I build a two-country model of France and the rest of the euro area with exogenous rest of the world variables, and estimate it with and without these two frictions using Bayesian techniques. By contrast with existing models, I propose two improvements of the representation of labor markets. First, following Pissarides (2009), only wages in new jobs are negotiated by firms and workers, engendering stickiness in the average real wage. Second, I develop a set of assumptions to make labor market participation endogenous and unemployment involuntary in the sense that the unemployed workers are worse-off that the employed ones. Yet, including this setup in the estimated model is left for future research.Using the four estimated versions of the model, I undertake a number of analyses to highlight the role of financial and labor market frictions : an historical shock decomposition of fluctuations during the crisis, the evaluation of several monetary policy rules, a counterfactual simulation of the crisis under the assumption of a flexible exchange rate regime between France and the rest of the euro area and, lastly, the simulation of social VAT scenarios.

The effectiveness of South Africa's policy framework towards attracting FDI has been questionable. Determined to redress the instabilities created by the apartheid regime, the Government of National Unity (GNU) commissioned the Macroeconomic and Research Group (MERG), and charged it to devise appropriate policy reforms and intervention mechanism to address the shortcomings. This research critically interrogates the effectiveness of government's policy reforms towards attracting FDI, especially the impacts of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP), the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) initiative and the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA). This research concludes that the policy determinants for inflow FDI have been self-defeating. Also, it was found that necessary reforms would have to be conducted to correct some of the shortcomings of the macroeconomic policies, as a way of creating an environment that is capable of attracting greenfield investments (FDI) to South Africa. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Djalma Santana Gomes.pdf: 922321 bytes, checksum: c1eea3c2d054128bad5ccce1eccbc1f4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-02 / This paper tries to evaluate the evolution process of Industrial Occupancy in the Greater ABC Area, during the period 1995 to 2005. The first chapter points the influence of macroeconomic policy, since Economic Collor Plan, over the labour market of the industry. The second chapter describes the Industrial Occupancy in Brazil, focusing the profile of the workers allocated on the Brazilian industry sector. The third chapter analysis the profile changing on the industries of Great ABC Area, showing up local characters, changes in organizational framework, technological change and productivity. The fourth chapter introduces a discussion about the workers allocation on the industries of Great ABC Area, with special attention on the behavior of indicators related to the level of occupancy and the profile of industries located on Great ABC Area / Esta dissertação busca avaliar o processo da evolução da Ocupação Industrial na Região do Grande ABC, no período de 1995 2005. O primeiro capítulo trata da influência da política macroeconômica, a partir do Plano Collor, no mercado de trabalho da indústria. O segundo capítulo retrata a Ocupação Industrial no Brasil, com destaque ao perfil dos ocupados da indústria do Brasil. O terceiro capítulo traz a análise sobre a Transformação da Indústria no ABC, com destaque aos fatores locacionais, transformações e mudanças organizacionais, mudanças tecnológicas e produtividade. O quarto capítulo faz uma discursão sobre a ocupação Industria na Região do ABC, com ênfase no exame do comportamento das variáveis do nível de ocupação e o perfil dos ocupados na indústria do ABC