Water availability in the ecosystem is one of the most crucial environmental factors that determines global terrestrial biome distribution. However, aridity/humidity conditions in the geologic past are difficult to quantify, mainly owing to the lack of a proper parameter. By using modern global climatic data, we here examine five selected previously proposed aridity indices (AIs), in which the climatic variables involved, including both precipitation and temperature, are simple and likely available in studies of paleoclimatology and paleoecology, although with different degrees of uncertainty. They were first evaluated along the modern climatic zones of eastern China, with the main metric of Thornthwaite humidity index (HI) and with the supplementary reference of soil moisture index (SMI) and near-ground atmospheric relative humidity (RH). Then AIs and the mean annual precipitation (MAP) were further statistically compared with HI, SMI, and RH, respectively, based on 1189 monitored data sets from meteorological stations over the world. The results show that the Köppen aridity index (AIKöppen), expressed as mean annual precipitation divided by mean annual temperature plus a constant of 33, is the most accurate and precise index among all selected indices, supported by the highest correlation coefficient respectively to HI, SMI, and RH, three widely-employed major indicators sensitive to hydrological dynamics in climatology and meteorology. Specifically, AIKöppen does well mirror corresponding HI along four representative transects from North America, South America, Africa, and Australia, which cover the typical arid and humid climates and span the main terrestrial biome types. Moreover, our results also distinctly reveal that, as also shown by many studies on modern climate, precipitation alone is inadequate to measure the hydrological condition, because both temperature and evapotranspiration are two other critical factors that strongly influence water balance in the ecosystem, meanwhile evapotranspiration is mainly affected by temperature. Based on the validated AIKöppen, we briefly discuss the aridity/humidity condition in China during the middle Miocene. The results demonstrate that moisture did decrease westward, but it is also clear that western China in the middle Miocene appears not to have been as dry as previously thought, indicated by the AIKöppen values representing a sub-humid to humid climate.

Water availability in the ecosystem is one of the most crucial environmental factors that determines global terrestrial biome distribution. However, aridity/humidity conditions in the geologic past are difficult to quantify, mainly owing to the lack of a proper parameter. By using modern global climatic data, we here examine five selected previously proposed aridity indices (AIs), in which the climatic variables involved, including both precipitation and temperature, are simple and likely available in studies of paleoclimatology and paleoecology, although with different degrees of uncertainty. They were first evaluated along the modern climatic zones of eastern China, with the main metric of Thornthwaite humidity index (HI) and with the supplementary reference of soil moisture index (SMI) and near-ground atmospheric relative humidity (RH). Then AIs and the mean annual precipitation (MAP) were further statistically compared with HI, SMI, and RH, respectively, based on 1189 monitored data sets from meteorological stations over the world. The results show that the Köppen aridity index (AIKöppen), expressed as mean annual precipitation divided by mean annual temperature plus a constant of 33, is the most accurate and precise index among all selected indices, supported by the highest correlation coefficient respectively to HI, SMI, and RH, three widely-employed major indicators sensitive to hydrological dynamics in climatology and meteorology. Specifically, AIKöppen does well mirror corresponding HI along four representative transects from North America, South America, Africa, and Australia, which cover the typical arid and humid climates and span the main terrestrial biome types. Moreover, our results also distinctly reveal that, as also shown by many studies on modern climate, precipitation alone is inadequate to measure the hydrological condition, because both temperature and evapotranspiration are two other critical factors that strongly influence water balance in the ecosystem, meanwhile evapotranspiration is mainly affected by temperature. Based on the validated AIKöppen, we briefly discuss the aridity/humidity condition in China during the middle Miocene. The results demonstrate that moisture did decrease westward, but it is also clear that western China in the middle Miocene appears not to have been as dry as previously thought, indicated by the AIKöppen values representing a sub-humid to humid climate.

A soil climate monitoring network, consisting of seven automated weather stations, was established between 1999 and 2003 in the McMurdo Sound region of Antarctica. Soil temperature, soil water content, air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed and direction are recorded hourly and downloaded annually. Two 30 m deep permafrost temperature monitoring boreholes were established adjacent to the soil climate stations in the Wright Valley and at Marble Point in January 2007. Sixteen thermistors (accurate to ±0.1°C) were installed in each borehole measuring temperature once every hour and recording the mean every six hours. One year of permafrost temperatures were available (January 2007 to January 2008). The overall aim of this thesis was to make use of the soil climate monitoring database from 1999 to 2007 to investigate Antarctic soil climate. Active layer depth (depth of thawing) varied inter-annually, with no significant trend between 1999 and 2007. The active layer increased with decreasing latitude (R2 = 0.94), and decreased with increasing altitude (R2 = 0.95). A multiple regression model was produced whereby active layer depth was predicted as a function of mean summer air temperature, mean winter air temperature, total summer solar radiation and mean summer wind speed (R2 = 0.73). Annual temperature cycles were observed at all depths in the boreholes. At Marble Point, an annual temperature range of lt;1°C occurred at 15.2 m, lt;0.5°C at 18.4 m and lt;0.1°C at 26.4 m and at Wright Valley, an annual temperature range of lt;1°C occurred at 14.0 m, lt;0.5°C at 17.2 m and lt;0.1°C at 25.2 m. Given that the depth of Zero Annual Amplitude determined depends on the sensitivity of the measurement method, it is suggested that instead of referring to a depth of Zero Annual Amplitude , the depth at which the annual temperature range is less than a given value is a more useful concept. Mean annual and mean seasonal air and soil temperatures varied inter-annually and there was no significant trend of warming or cooling over the 1999 - 2007 period. Mean annual air temperatures were primarily influenced by winter air temperatures. Mean annual and mean summer soil temperatures were warmer than air temperatures due to heating by solar radiation. Mean summer air temperatures correlated well with the Southern Annular Mode Index (SAMI) at all sites (0.61 lt; R2 lt; 0.73) except Victoria Valley; however there was no correlation between mean annual or mean winter temperatures and the SAMI. Air temperature was linearly correlated with near-surface soil temperature (1.3 - 7.5 cm) (R2 gt; 0.79). Near-surface soil temperature was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation at Victoria Valley (0.14 lt; R2 lt; 0.76) and Granite Harbour (0.49 lt; R2 lt; 0.82), but was not significantly correlated at other sites (0 lt; R2 lt; 0.57). There was no significant correlation between air temperature and wind speed, air temperature and solar radiation and near-surface soil temperature and wind speed, despite occasions of strong correlation on the diurnal time scale. Diurnal summer cycles in air and soil temperatures were driven by solar radiation. Multiple regressions combining the effects of air temperature, solar radiation and wind speed approximated near-surface soil temperatures well at every site during both summer and winter (0.88 lt; R2 lt; 0.98).

Prediction of flow is necessary for planning and management of water resources. The objective of this study is to estimate mean annual flows for the USA and mean monthly flows for the rivers of central Texas based on the precipitation and their watershed characteristics. Flow varies largely with topographic and climatic parameters and hence generalization of runoff models is difficult. This model aims at providing a prediction at ungaged locations with very few parameters that are easily available and measurable. Scatter in predicted data will be seen at the annual and monthly time scale in the range selected for each data. This model will work on annual and monthly means to reduce the scatter and produce better estimates.

This study is concerned with the effect that mean annual precipitation (P) has on the relationship between bankfull channel width (Wbf) and drainage area (Ada). Several other studies have been conducted in which relationships were developed for predicting Wbf as a function of Ada and P. In most cases, however, the relationships were developed for specific regions, e.g., physiographic regions. This study is unusual in that it evaluates the relationship between Wbf, Ada, and P over a broad area (i.e., across a range of geologic, terrestrial, and climatic environments). In one study, where a broad area was considered, the relationship between Wbf, Ada, and P was found to be linear. The dataset for this study was compiled from data in U.S. Geological Survey flood-flow-frequency reports, regional curve studies (i.e., studies in which Wbf vs. Ada relationships are developed) and other sources. A total of 435 sites that span across 12 states of the continental U.S. are represented in the dataset. Streams represented in the dataset are alluvial and have widths from 1 to 110 m, drainage areas from 0.50 to 22,000 km2, and mean annual precipitation depths ranging from 22 to 277 cm/yr. Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Wadeable Streams Assessment study were employed in validating the results of this study. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model was developed and it was determined that the intercept coefficient for the relationship between Wbf and Ada varies as follows: for P < 50 cm/yr the intercept coefficient (α) is constant; for 50 cm/yr ¡Ü P ¡Ü 100 cm/yr, α increases with P, and for P ¡Ý100 cm/yr, α is again constant. Across all values of P, the slope coefficient is constant (90% Confidence level). Changes in the relationship between Wbfand Ada are attributed to vegetation by noting that biome types changes from shrubland to forest as P increases from 50 to 100 cm/yr. These findings can be incorporated in regional curve studies and landscape evolution models (i.e., models which aim to integrate hydrology, land use history, geomorphology and climate change with models of vegetation succession).

No description available.

Two measures of air temperature trends across southern Yukon and northern British Columbia were modelled based on measurements from 83 monitoring sites across seven areas, operating for up to 14 years. Both mean monthly air temperature (MMAT) and freezing and thawing degree days (FDD and TDD, respectively) were modelled across this area (59 °N to 64.5 °N) at elevations ranging from 330-1480 m asl. Lapse rates in this region show inversions in the winter months (November - March) varying in inversion strength and length in relation to degree of continentality. The spatial and elevation range of these sites allowed for regional lapse rate modelling at the monthly scale for MMAT and at the annual scale for FDD and TDD. Lapse rates below treeline were found to be correlated (p < 0.1) with degree of continentality in the colder months (November - April) and August. In these months, lapse rates were modelled using kriging trend surfaces. In months where degree of continentality was not found to have a significant impact on lapse rates (p > 0.1) (May - October, excluding August), an average lapse rate calculated from the seven study regions was used across the study region. A combination of lapse rate trend surfaces, elevation, and temperatures at sea level were used to model MMAT and F/TDD below treeline. A treeline trend surface was created using a 4th order polynomial, allowing for temperatures at treeline to be determined. MMAT and F/TDD above treeline were calculated using a constant lapse rate of -6 °C/km, elevation, and temperature at treeline. The above and below treeline models were combined to create continuous models of MMAT and F/TDD. Modelled MMAT showed a high degree of homogeneity across the study region in warmer months. Inversions in lapse rates are evident in the colder months, especially December through February, when colder temperatures are easily identified in valley bottoms, increasing to treeline, and decreasing above treeline. Modelled MMAT values were validated using 20 sites across the study region, using both Environment and Climate Change Canada and University of Ottawa sites. The RMSE between modelled and observed MMAT was highest in January (4.4 °C) and lowest in June (0.7 °C). Sites below treeline showed a stronger relationship between modelled and observed values than sites above treeline. Edge effects of the model were evident in the northeast of the study region as well as in the ice fields in the southwest along the Alaska border. The new MMAT maps can be used to help understand species range change, underlying permafrost conditions, and climate patterns over time. FDD values were found to be highly influenced by both degree of continentality as well as latitude, whereas TDD values were mainly dependent on elevation, with degree of continentality and latitude being lesser influences. FDD and TDD were validated using the same 20 sites across the study region, with FDD showing a larger RMSE (368 degree days) between modelled and observed values than TDD (150 degree days). TDD modelling performed better on average, with a lower average absolute difference (254 degree days) between modelled and observed values at the validation sites than FDD modelling (947 degree days). The models of FDD and TDD represent a component of temperature at top of permafrost (TTOP) modelling for future studies. Two mean annual air temperature (MAAT) maps were created, one calculated from the MMAT models, and the other from the F/TDD models. Most of the study region showed negative MAAT, mainly between -6 °C and 0 °C for both methods. The average MAAT calculated from FDD and TDD values was -2.4 ºC, whereas the average MAAT calculated from MMAT values was -2.8 ºC. Models of MAAT were found to be slightly warmer than in previous studies, potentially indicating warming temperature trends.

The distribution of mountain permafrost is generally modeled using a combination of statistical techniques and empirical variables. Such models, based on topographic, climatic and geomorphological predictors of permafrost, have been widely used to estimate the spatial distribution of mountain permafrost in North America and Europe. However at present, little knowledge about the distribution and characteristics of mountain permafrost is available for the Andes. In addition, the effects of climate change on slope stability and the hydrological system, and the pressure of mining activities have increased concerns about the knowledge of mountain permafrost in the Andes. In order to model permafrost distribution in the semi-arid Chilean Andes between ~29°S and 32°S, an inventory of rock glaciers is carried out to obtain a variable indicative of the presence and absence of permafrost conditions. Then a Linear Mixed-Effects Model (LMEM) is used to determine the spatial distribution of Mean Annual Air Temperature (MAATs), which is then used as one of the predictors of permafrost occurrence. Later, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) with a logistic link function is used to predict permafrost occurrence in debris surfaces within the study area. Within the study area, 3575 rock glaciers were inventoried. Of these, 1075 were classified as active, 493 as inactive, 343 as intact and 1664 as relict forms, based on visual interpretation of satellite imagery. Many of the rock glaciers (~60-80%) are situated at positive MAAT, and the number of rock glaciers at negative MAAT greatly decreases from north to south. The results of spatial temperature distribution modeling indicated that the temperature changes by -0.71°C per each 100 m increase in altitude, and that there is a 4°C temperature difference between the northern and southern part of the study area. The altitudinal position of the 0°C MAAT isotherm is situated at ~4250 m a.s.l. in the northern (29°S) section and drops latitudinally to ~4000 m a.s.l. in the southern section (32°S) of the study area. For permafrost modeling purposes, 1911 rock glaciers (active, inactive and intact forms) were categorized into the class indicative of permafrost presence and 1664 (relict forms) as non-permafrost. The predictors MAAT and Potential Incoming Solar Radiation (PISR) and their nonlinear interaction were modeled by the GAM using LOESS smoothing function. A temperature offset term was applied to reduce the overestimation of permafrost occurrence in debris surface areas due to the use of rock glaciers as permafrost proxies. The dependency between the predictor variables shows that a high amount of PISR has a greater effect at positive MAAT levels than in negative ones. The GAM for permafrost distribution achieved an acceptable discrimination capability between permafrost classes (area under the ROC curve ~0.76). Considering a permafrost probability score (PPS) ≥ 0.5 and excluding steep bedrock and glacier surfaces, mountain permafrost can be potentially present in up to about 6.8% (2636 km2) of the study area, whereas with a PPS ≥ 0.75, the potential permafrost area decreases to 2.7% (1051 km2). Areas with the highest PPS are spatially concentrated in the north section of the study area where altitude rises considerably (the Huasco and Elqui watersheds), while permafrost is almost absent in the southern section where the topography is considerably lower (Limarí and Choapa watersheds). This research shows that the potential mountain permafrost distribution can be spatially modeled using topoclimatic information and rock glacier inventories. Furthermore, the results have provided the first local estimation of permafrost distribution in the semi-arid Chilean Andes. The results obtained can be used for local environmental planning and to aid future research in periglacial topics.

No description available.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada released a report in 2013 that evaluated the seismic risk of two major metropolitan areas of Canada, with projected losses of $75bn in British Columbia along the Cascadia subduction zone, and $63bn in the east through the Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec corridor. Such reports should prompt researchers and designers alike to rethink the way that seismic design is approached in Canada to develop resilient and sustainable cities for the future. To mitigate the economic losses associated with earthquake damage to buildings in seismically active areas, controlled rocking steel braced frames have been developed as a seismically resilient low-damage lateral-force resisting system. Controlled rocking steel braced frames (CRSBFs) mitigate structural damage during earthquakes through a controlled rocking mechanism, where energy dissipation can be provided at the base of the frame, and pre-stressed tendons pull the frame back to its centred position after rocking. The result is a building for which the residual drifts of the system after an earthquake are essentially zero, and the energy dissipation does not result from structural damage. Design methods for the base rocking joint and the capacity-protected frame members in CRSBFs have been proposed and validated both numerically and experimentally. However, the is no consensus on how to approach the design of the frame members, questions remain regarding how best to design CRSBFs to prevent building collapse, and no experimental work has been done regarding how to connect the CRSBF to the rest of the structure to accommodate the rocking motion. Because the force limiting mechanism of a CRSBF is rocking only at the base of the frame, the frame member forces are greatly influenced by the higher-mode response, resulting in more complex methods to design the frame members. This thesis begins by outlining two new design procedures for the frame members in controlled rocking steel braced frames that target both simplicity and accuracy. The first is a dynamic procedure that requires a truncated response spectrum analysis on a model of the frame with modified boundary conditions to consider the rocking behaviour. The second is an equivalent static procedure that does not require any modifications to the elastic frame model, instead using theory-based lateral force distributions to consider the higher modes of the rocking structure. Neither method requires empirical calibration to estimate the forces at the target intensity. The base rocking joint design is generally in good agreement between the various research programs pioneering the development of the CRSBFs. However, the numerous parameters available to select during the design of the base rocking joint give designers an exceptional amount of control over the performance of the system, and little research is available on how best to select these parameters to target or minimise the probability of collapse for the building. This thesis presents a detailed numerical model to capture collapse of buildings with CRSBFs as their primary lateral force resisting system and uses this model to generate collapse fragility curves for different base rocking joint design parameters. The parameters include the response modification factor, the hysteretic energy dissipation ratio, and the post-tensioning prestress ratio. This work demonstrates that CRSBFs are resilient against collapse, as designing the base rocking joint with response modification factors as large as 30, designing the post-tensioning to prevent yielding at moderate seismic hazard levels, and using zero energy dissipation could lead to designs with acceptable margins of safety against collapse. While the design procedures are shown to be accurate for estimating the frame member force demand for the targeted intensity level, there is still a high level of uncertainty around what intensity of earthquake a building will experience during its lifespan, and there is no consensus on what intensity should be targeted for design. To address this, the ability of the capacity design procedures to provide a sufficiently low probability of collapse due to excessive frame member buckling and yielding is evaluated and compared to the probability that the building will collapse due to excessive rocking of the frame. The results of the research presented here suggest that the probability of collapse due to either frame member failure or excessive rocking should be evaluated separately, and that targeting the intensity with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years is sufficient for the design of the frame members. Finally, critical to the implementation of CRSBFs in practice is how they may be connected to the rest of the structure to accommodate the uplifting of the CRSBF while rocking under large lateral forces. An experimental program was undertaken to test three proposed connection details to accommodate the relative uplifts and forces. The connections that accommodate the uplifts through sliding performed better than that which accommodated the uplifts though material yielding, but the best way to transfer the forces and accommodate the uplifting without influencing the overall behaviour of the system is to position the connection such that it does not need to undergo large uplifts and carry lateral force simultaneously. A detailed numerical model of the experimental setup is presented and is shown to simulate the important response quantities for each of the tested connections. Using the results of this work, designers worldwide will be confident to design CRSBFs for structures from the base rocking joint to the selection of floor-to-frame connections for a complete system design while ensuring a safe and resilient building structure for public use and well-being. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Traditional approaches to seismic design of buildings have generally been successful at preventing collapse and protecting the lives of the occupants. However, the buildings are often left severely damaged, often beyond repair. To address these concerns, controlled rocking steel braced frames have been proposed as part of a new construction technique to mitigate or prevent damage to steel buildings during earthquakes, but several aspects of the design and overall safety have yet to be explored or demonstrated. This thesis proposes and validates new tools to design controlled rocking steel braced frames and provides recommendations on how best to design them to achieve a safe probability against collapse. Details are proposed and presented for components to connect the controlled rocking steel braced frames into the rest of the structure. The findings of this thesis will aid practitioners looking to deliver resilient and sustainable structural designs for buildings in our cities of the future.