Der Verkehrsmarkt befindet sich im Spannungsfeld maßgeblicher Einflüsse wie Kosten- und Einkommensentwicklung, Verkehrsangebot, Verkehrsnachfrage und Infrastruktur. Diese Einflussfaktoren sind bereits heute dabei, sich zum Teil dramatisch zu verändern; dies wird in der Zukunft noch verstärkt der Fall sein. Die Einflussfaktoren werden dabei durch das Zusammenwirken verschiedener Leittrends (Megatrends) maßgeblich geprägt. Beispielhaft genannt seien etwa die Schrumpfung und Alterung der Bevölkerung, die Folgen der Globalisierung und des Klimawandels, die weltweite Ressourcenverknappung oder die finanziellen Restriktionen privater und öffentlicher Haushalte. Mit diesem InnoZ-Baustein werden die mobilitätsrelevanten Megatrends analysiert und ihr Einfluss auf die Indikatoren des Verkehrsmarkts in einem Gesamtzusammenhang dargestellt. Unser interdisziplinärer Ansatz integriert ökonomische, sozial- und raumwissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse. Es zeigt sich dabei unter anderem, dass … • … die für die Bevölkerungsmehrheit nur noch moderat steigenden Realeinkommen und die gleichzeitig steigenden Ausgaben für elementare Lebensbereiche dämpfend auf den Verkehrsmarkt wirken. Die Spreizung in hohe und niedrige Einkommen nimmt zu und führt zu einer wachsenden Differenzierung der Nachfrage nach hochund niedrigpreisigen Angeboten. • … die Kosten für Mobilität in den letzten Jahren stark angestiegen sind und dass diese in den kommenden Jahren sehr wahrscheinlich weiter ansteigen werden. Dies gilt für alle motorisierten Verkehrsträger und insbesondere für den motorisierten Individualverkehr. Die Simultanität von kaum noch steigenden Realeinkommen und einer sich stetig verteuernden Gesundheits- und Altersvorsorge sorgt dafür, dass die Mobilitätsbudgets der Verbraucher deutlich eingeengt werden. • … durch die demografisch bedingte Verkleinerung wichtiger Nachfragegruppen die Nachfrage am Gesamtverkehrsmarkt tendenziell sinkt – trotz regional zum Teil gegenläufiger Tendenzen. • … Verkehrsunternehmen und Fahrzeughersteller auf die sich verändernden Kundenanforderungen – z.B. bedingt durch die massive Alterung der Bevölkerung – mit differenzierten Angeboten reagieren. Voraussichtlich kann jedoch die zurückgehende Gesamtverkehrsnachfrage nicht vollständig kompensiert werden. Der vorliegende InnoZ-Baustein schließt mit einem Ausblick auf die auf dieser Grundlage hergeleiteten und regional ausdifferenzierten Umfelddaten, die Eingang in modellbasierte Prognoserechnungen zur zukünftigen Verkehrsnachfrage und dem entsprechenden Infrastrukturbedarf finden werden. / he transport market is influenced by various and sometimes competing factors such as cost development and income growth, transport options offered, transport demand and infrastructure. These influencing factors are already to some extent under dramatic change, and these changes will increase in the future. The influencing factors themselves are affected by different leading trends (megatrends) interacting with each other. Examples for such megatrends are a declining and ageing population, the impacts of globalization and climate change, worldwide resource shortages, or increasing constraints on public finances and on disposable incomes. This paper analyzes the megatrends relevant for the mobility sector and describes their impact on transport market indicators in a general context. The underlying interdisciplinary approach integrates economic, sociological and spatial scientific knowledge. The analysis shows, among other things, that … • … only moderately increasing real earnings for most of the population, and simultaneously rising expenditures for basic needs will result in decreasing effects on the transport market. Income inequality will increase and lead to a growing differentiated demand for high- and lowpriced products and services. • … mobility costs have risen dramatically over the past years and they will very likely continue to increase over the next years. This applies for motorized transport on the whole, and especially for individual motor car traffic. A minimal rise in real earnings along with a permanent increase in health care and retirement provision costs lead to noticeable restrictions on individual mobility budgets. • … a decrease of important customer groups, caused by demographic change, will tend to result in a shrinking transport market, in spite of opposing trends in some regions. • … transportation companies and vehicle manufacturers will respond to changing customer needs, brought along for instance by a drastically aging population, with differentiated products and services. But in all likelihood, such developments cannot wholly compensate for the declining overall transport demand. The paper concludes with an overview of the regionally differentiated context data derived from the described approach. The context data constitutes the input data for the model-based forecasting, with which future transport market demand and the according infrastructure demand in Germany will be estimated.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de faire ressortir et d'analyser les facteurs liés à l'organisation spatiale de la population et des activités susceptibles de produire une mobilité plus durable. Sur la base du constat que le système de transports n'est pas durable, nous effectuons une approche par les coûts de la mobilité à partir de trois indicateurs représentatifs de la durabilité de la mobilité des ménages : les coûts annuels de la mobilité urbaine des ménages, le taux d'effort annuel consacré par les ménages pour leurs dépenses de transports et leurs émissions annuelles de CO2. Le lien entre forme urbaine et mobilité n'est pas simple. Il s'agit d'un lien de réciprocité complexe à définir. Les travaux montrent que trois dimensions de l'environnement local jouent au final sur la mobilité des ménages : la densité, la diversité et l'accessibilité. La démarche consiste à confronter les facteurs supposés explicatifs des indicateurs de durabilité de la mobilité des ménages et de déterminer quelle est la part expliquée par la forme urbaine. Sur le périmètre élargi de l'enquête ménages de Lyon (2006), notre approche par les coûts de la mobilité des ménages permet une approche des inégalités sur le plan financier. Par ailleurs, une simulation sur l'évolution des prix du carburant montre que les classes moyennes seront de plus en plus concernées par l'augmentation continue des prix du pétrole à l'avenir. Afin de déterminer la part des coûts de la mobilité expliquée par la forme urbaine, nous bâtissons des modèles explicatifs au niveau du ménage en y intégrant des variables de forme urbaine et variables socio-économique du ménage. L'analyse met aussi en évidence l'influence des pôles secondaires sur la vulnérabilité des ménages et les coûts de la mobilité. Les modèles par type de ménages montrent enfin que les effets de la forme urbaine sont différenciés suivant les types de ménage. Il est également intéressant de mesurer les économies générées par des changements marginaux de forme urbaine. Nous bâtissons pour cela des modèles économétriques à un niveau plus agrégé permettant le calcul de coefficients d'élasticité. En outre nous pouvons estimer en termes économiques les gains espérés suite à des changements de forme urbaine. / The aim of this thesis is to highlight and analyze the factors related to the spatial organization of the population and the economic activities which may produce a more sustainable mobility. By considering that the transport system is not sustainable, we measure mobility costs thanks to three indicators which represent the sustainability of household mobility: the annual costs of household urban mobility, the annual effort rate devoted by households to their transportation expenditures and the annual CO2 emissions. The link between urban form and mobility is not straightforward. Actually, it is a complex reciprocal link to be defined. The literature shows that three dimensions of local environment finally influence household mobility: density, diversity and accessibility. The method consists on confronting the factors alleged to explain the indicators of the sustainability of household mobility and on determining which part is explained by urban form. On the enlarged perimeter of the household travel survey of Lyon (2006), our approach based on household mobility costs enables, moreover, an approach to financial inequalities and introducing the notion of household vulnerability facing their transportation costs. In order to determine the share of mobility costs explained by urban form, we build some explanatory models, at the household level, by integrating urban form and socio-economic household variables. Especially the analysis focuses on the influence of secondary urban poles on the household vulnerability and mobility costs. Some explanatory models by household types show also that the effects of urban form are differentiated according to household categories. It is also interesting to measure the savings generated by marginal changes of urban form. To do that, we build some econometric models in a more aggregated level which allows computing elasticity coefficients. Thus, we can estimate, in economic terms, the expected savings that are triggered by urban form changes.

[pt] À medida que a literatura de transformação estrutural esteve focada em explicar os Kuznets facts - um conjunto de regularidades empíricas apresentado pela dinâmica dos setores de uma economia - questões importantes ficaram à margem. A desigualde foi uma delas: Simon Kuznets, o pai dessa literatura, repetitivamente defendeu que desigualdade e dinâmica setorial eram relacionadas. Nesse sentido, nosso objetivo é extender o modelo canônico de trasformação estrutual de forma a introduzir distribuição de renda e riqueza entre indivíduos. Permitimos que haja risco idiossincrático e mercados incompletos em um ambiente de crescimento com dois setores. Em um exercício quantitativo, é conduzida uma transição secular entre uma economia pobre baseada em bens para uma economia rica intensiva em serviços - ao longo da qual o modelo gera uma curva em U invertido para a trajetória da desigualdade. Nossa contribuição é sugerir como o preço relativo entre consumo e investimento (que varia no tempo e decorre da estrutura multi-setorial do modelo) tem um papel importante no comportamento das medidas distributivas. Também mostramos que o consumo de subsistência, típico de ambientes de transformação estrutural, pode influenciar a desigualdade. Na sequência, o modelo é extendido com uma restrição sobre a capacidade dos trabalhadores de se moverem entre os setores - e mostramos como essa fricção pode amplificar o o formato em U invertido seguido pelo Gini de renda e riqueza. Por fim, nossa economia é calibrada para os Estados Unidos (1950-2000), gerando evidências qualitativas e quantitativas do efeito sobre a desigualdade de ambos os efeitos acima (preço relativo e consumo de subsistência). A evidência quantitativa, porém, é em certos casos limitada. / [en] While the structural change literature has been mainly focused on explaining the Kuznets Facts - a set of regularities concerning sectoral dynamics throughout economic growth - important issues were left apart. Inequality was one of them: Simon Kuznets, the father of this literature, when making some of the first documentation of structural change patterns, repetitively expressed his concern that inequality and sector reallocation were linked. In this regard, we seek to extend the benchmark model of structural change to introduce wealth and income distribution. We allow idiosyncratic risk and incomplete markets in a two-sector environment of growth. In a quantitative exercise, a secular transition from a poor and good s producer economy to a richer and service-based one is conducted. The model can account for an inverse U-shaped path for inequality as growth takes place. Our contribution is to suggest how a time-varying relative price of consumption and investment - yielded by the model s multi-sector structure - plays a role in the inequality behavior. We also show that the subsistence consumption requirement, typical of structural change setups, can influence distributional variables. The model is extended with a restriction over workers capacity to move across sectors - and we show that it amplifies the inverse U-shaped path followed by the income and wealth Gini. Finally, the model is calibrated for the US economy (1950-2000), yielding qualitative and quantitative evidence of the effect on inequality from both mechanisms presented above (relative prices and subsistence consumption). Quantitative strength, however, is in some cases limited.