Redland Shire Council (RSC) has recently completed the preparation of Integrated Local Transport Plan (ILTP) and started its implementation and monitoring program. One of the major thrusts of the ILTP is to reduce the car dependency in the Shire and increase the shares of sustainable environmental-friendly travelling modes, such as walking, cycling and public transport. To achieve these objectives, a mathematical model is needed that is capable of modelling and forecasting the travelling mode choice behaviour in the multi modal environment of Redland Shire. Further, the model can be employed in testing the elasticity of various level-of-service attributes, under a virtual travel environment, as proposed in the ILTP, and estimating the demand for the new travelling alternatives to private car, namely the bus on busway, walking on walkway and cycling on cycleway. The research estimated various nested logit models for different trip lengths and trip purposes, using the data from a stated preference (SP) survey conducted in the Shire. A unique computer assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) instrument was designed, using both the motorised (bus on busway) and non-motorised travelling modes (walking on walkway and cycling on cycleway) in the SP choice set. Additionally, a unique set of access modes for bus on busway was also generated, containing hypothetical modes, such as secure park and ride facilities and kiss and ride drop-off zones at the busway stations, walkway and cycleway facilities to access the busway stations and a frequent and integrated feeder bus network within the Shire. Hence, this study created a totally new virtual travel environment for the population of Redland Shire, in order to record their perceived observations under these scenarios and develop the mode choice models. From the final model estimation results, it was found that the travel behaviour forecasted for regional trip-makers is considerably different from that of local trip-makers. The regional travellers for work, for instance, were found not to perceive the non-motorised modes as valid alternatives to car, possibly due to longer trip lengths. The value of time (VoT) determined for local work trip-makers (16.50 A$/hr) was also found to be higher than that of regional work trip-makers (11.70 A$/hr). From the survey analysis, a big part of the targeted population was found to be car captives, who are not likely to switch from cars to public transport; even if a more efficient transit infrastructure is implemented. In the past, the models have been generally calibrated using the mode choice survey data only, while that of the captive users were ignored. This yields a knowledge gap in capturing the complete travel behaviour of a region, since the question of what particular biases can be involved with each model estimation parameter by the captives remain unresolved. In this research, various statistical analyses were performed on the car captive users' data by categorising them into various trip characteristics and household parameters, in order to infer the relative influence of the car captive population on the travel behaviour of the study area. The outcomes of the research can assist the policy makers in solving the strategic issues of transit planning, including the future development of a busway corridor, with an efficient transit access mode network. The research findings can also be utilised in evaluating the feasibility of developing walkways and cycleways in the Shire, along with appraising the relative influence of car captive users on the travel behaviour forecasts for the study area.

Esta dissertação visa avaliar o padrão comportamental dos pedestres nos deslocamentos na cidade de Porto Alegre. É abordado a partir da base de dados provenientes da pesquisa de entrevistas domiciliares realizadas em 2003 em Porto Alegre. Para isto, caracterizaram-se os deslocamentos a pé na cidade e identificaram-se as regiões de maior e menor concentração de viagens a pé. A fim de determinar os fatores que influenciam a decisão de caminhar foram estimados modelos logit binomiais para as viagens menores que 2 km em cada uma das regiões identificadas anteriormente. As variáveis explicativas para os modelos analisados incluem características do domicílio (disponibilidade de automóvel e renda por domicílio), dos residentes (idade), das viagens (distância e motivo da viagem), da forma urbana (densidade de domicílios, densidade populacional, comprimento médio das quadras, padrão do sistema viário, tipo de uso do solo e estacionamento tarifado em área pública) e da disponibilidade de transporte coletivo na origem da viagem. Foram consideradas duas categorias de viagens: viagens por motivo trabalho/estudo e viagens por motivo não trabalho/estudo (motivos recreacionais, compras, saúde, assuntos pessoais e outros). Os resultados do estudo mostram que características sócio-econômicas dos residentes, características das viagens e da forma urbana influenciam a escolha do modo a pé. Analisando os valores de elasticidade obtidos para as duas categorias de viagens originadas em Petrópolis e no Centro pode-se inferir que as variáveis que exercem maior influência estão relacionadas principalmente a características da viagem (distância) e à configuração física da rede viária. A análise de sensibilidade evidenciou a sensibilidade do modelo frente a alterações das variáveis estudadas. Os resultados obtidos servem de apoio para um planejamento mais adequado da mobilidade e acessibilidade dos pedestres. / This thesis aims to evaluate the pedestrians’ behavior in Porto Alegre. The study was based on a Porto Alegre household survey of 2003. During the analysis, the pedestrian trips were characterized and the traffic zones with the larger and the smaller number of pedestrian trips were identified. In order to determine the influencing factors related to the walk choice, binomial logit models were developed for trips with less than 2km in each traffic zone previously identified. The explanatory variable used in the models included the characteristics of the household (auto availability and household income), of the household members (age), of the trip (distance and purpose of the trip), of the built environment (housing units density, population density, mean block size, street patterns, land use and public parking), and transit availability in the origin of the trip. Two types of pedestrian travel were considered: work and non-work trips (shopping, health, personal purposes and others). The study results showed that socio-economic characteristics, trip characteristics and local measures of the built environment influence walk modechoice. Elasticity results for the two types of trips, with origin in “Petrópolis” and Downtown, indicate that the most influence variables are connected with trip characteristics (distance) and street design. The sensibility analysis showed the model sensibility strength under the changes introduced in the variables studied. These analysis results may provide support for a better planning for pedestrians’ mobility and accessibility.

Submitted by Malte Nowack (malte.nowack@gmail.com) on 2014-10-09T21:14:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Malte Nowack FGV_VF.docx: 327906 bytes, checksum: 9050c7cb1fba28803c864ea2ab332798 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-10-10T12:05:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Malte Nowack FGV_VF.docx: 327906 bytes, checksum: 9050c7cb1fba28803c864ea2ab332798 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-10T12:25:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Malte Nowack FGV_VF.docx: 327906 bytes, checksum: 9050c7cb1fba28803c864ea2ab332798 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-12 / We examine the drivers behind the establishment mode choice of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the sectors of Automotive, Chemicals and Mechanical Engineering in Brazil for the years 1993-2013 using a novel sample of primary data obtained directly from German MNEs. Based on prevalent theories found in the literature, we test the most common hypotheses on our sample. Firms with high R&D activities and firms with prior market knowledge in Brazil in from of previous sales offices are more likely to enter Brazil by a Greenfield investment. We also show that it is the specific private ownership of the German so-called hidden champions that drive those specific SMEs to enter Brazil by Greenfield, a sneaking suspicion that has been made before. Finally, we show that the establishment mode choice between Brazil and the USA only deviates to a low extent, with German MNEs preferring to enter Brazil by Greenfield and the USA by M&A. Thereby, we provide valuable insights for future research in this field.

Esta dissertação visa avaliar o padrão comportamental dos pedestres nos deslocamentos na cidade de Porto Alegre. É abordado a partir da base de dados provenientes da pesquisa de entrevistas domiciliares realizadas em 2003 em Porto Alegre. Para isto, caracterizaram-se os deslocamentos a pé na cidade e identificaram-se as regiões de maior e menor concentração de viagens a pé. A fim de determinar os fatores que influenciam a decisão de caminhar foram estimados modelos logit binomiais para as viagens menores que 2 km em cada uma das regiões identificadas anteriormente. As variáveis explicativas para os modelos analisados incluem características do domicílio (disponibilidade de automóvel e renda por domicílio), dos residentes (idade), das viagens (distância e motivo da viagem), da forma urbana (densidade de domicílios, densidade populacional, comprimento médio das quadras, padrão do sistema viário, tipo de uso do solo e estacionamento tarifado em área pública) e da disponibilidade de transporte coletivo na origem da viagem. Foram consideradas duas categorias de viagens: viagens por motivo trabalho/estudo e viagens por motivo não trabalho/estudo (motivos recreacionais, compras, saúde, assuntos pessoais e outros). Os resultados do estudo mostram que características sócio-econômicas dos residentes, características das viagens e da forma urbana influenciam a escolha do modo a pé. Analisando os valores de elasticidade obtidos para as duas categorias de viagens originadas em Petrópolis e no Centro pode-se inferir que as variáveis que exercem maior influência estão relacionadas principalmente a características da viagem (distância) e à configuração física da rede viária. A análise de sensibilidade evidenciou a sensibilidade do modelo frente a alterações das variáveis estudadas. Os resultados obtidos servem de apoio para um planejamento mais adequado da mobilidade e acessibilidade dos pedestres. / This thesis aims to evaluate the pedestrians’ behavior in Porto Alegre. The study was based on a Porto Alegre household survey of 2003. During the analysis, the pedestrian trips were characterized and the traffic zones with the larger and the smaller number of pedestrian trips were identified. In order to determine the influencing factors related to the walk choice, binomial logit models were developed for trips with less than 2km in each traffic zone previously identified. The explanatory variable used in the models included the characteristics of the household (auto availability and household income), of the household members (age), of the trip (distance and purpose of the trip), of the built environment (housing units density, population density, mean block size, street patterns, land use and public parking), and transit availability in the origin of the trip. Two types of pedestrian travel were considered: work and non-work trips (shopping, health, personal purposes and others). The study results showed that socio-economic characteristics, trip characteristics and local measures of the built environment influence walk modechoice. Elasticity results for the two types of trips, with origin in “Petrópolis” and Downtown, indicate that the most influence variables are connected with trip characteristics (distance) and street design. The sensibility analysis showed the model sensibility strength under the changes introduced in the variables studied. These analysis results may provide support for a better planning for pedestrians’ mobility and accessibility.

Connected vehicle is a fully connected transportation system in which vehicles, infrastructure, and mobile devices are enabled to exchange information in real-time to bring advancements in transportation operations. It is important to incorporate the new characteristics of the connected vehicle in the transportation planning process. Also, it is vital for planning and road agencies to better understand the impacts of connected vehicle on transportation networks, system demand, and travel behavior of road users in order to properly prepare for them. In addition, developers of connected vehicle systems can gain insight into how their systems will impact road users and network performance. When a change in performance of a transportation network occurs it can potentially cause users to change travel modes, known as mode choice. In this research, the change in mode choice, due to the change in network performance by introduction of connected vehicle is studied. This provides a more accurate depiction of the performance of the network and indicates how connected vehicles could change travellers’ preference in travel mode. The effect of this technology is explored on the performance of the Toronto waterfront, in a microsimulation environment. The results show that average travel time increases for high market penetrations when a dynamic route guidance algorithm is implemented, a phenomenon that occurs in dense, and complex traffic networks. Analysis of mode choice shows a loss in the auto mode share, for high market penetrations, due to the increased auto travel times. This loss in the auto mode share is compensated by increases in the other modes. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

The aim of this study was to develop a framework to model travel choice behavior in order to estimate intercity travel demand at nation-level in the United States. Nested and mixed logit models were developed to study national-level intercity transportation in the United States. A separate General Aviation airport choice model to estimates General Aviation person-trips and number of aircraft operations though more than 3000 airports was also developed. The combination of the General Aviation model and the logit models gives the capability to estimate a full spectrum of intercity travel demand in the United States. The logit models were calibrated using a nationwide revealed preference survey (1995 American Travel Survey). Separate models were developed for business and non-business trip purposes. An airport choice model is integrated into the mode choice model to estimate both the market share between any origin-destination pair and other modes of transportation, and the market share split between airports associated with the origin-destination pairs. The explanatory variables used in the utility functions of the models are travel time, travel cost, and traveler's household income. The logit models are used to estimate the market share of automobile and commercial air transportation between 3091 counties and 443 commercial service airports in the United States. The model was also used to estimate market share for on-demand air taxi services. Given an input county-to-county trip demand table, the models were used to estimate county-to-county travel demand by automobile and commercial airline between all counties and commercial service airports in the United States. The model has been integrated into a computer software framework called the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) that estimates nationwide intercity travel demand in the United States. / Ph. D.

This dissertation employs a mixed methods research design to examine the travel behavior of immigrants (individuals with an immigration background) in Vienna, Austria. Almost half of the city´s population has an immigration background. This study aims to understand the motivations, perceptions and attitudes influencing the travel behavior of individuals with an immigration background. The two main dependent variables in the analysis throughout the dissertation are mode choice and the satisfaction with six aspects of public transit: costs, travel time, equipment, connectivity, waiting times and safety. The first part of the dissertation will present a quantitative analysis of two datasets, one provided by Statistik Austria, and one self-conducted survey, in which overall trends and predicting factors of travel behavior in Vienna will be presented. The second part of the dissertation offers a qualitative view on travel behavior. 21 semi-structured interviews have been conducted with individuals with and without an immigration background to further the understanding of the underlying factors leading to their travel behavior. The quantitative analysis has shown that individuals with an immigration background from Turkey or former Yugoslavia in general drive more and ride public transit less than individuals without an immigration background. This effect is especially prevalent for work-trips. Individuals with an immigration background from Turkey or former Yugoslavia are also less satisfied with the majority of the six aspects of public transit. The interviews have shown that the rationale between driving more for individuals with an immigration background from Turkey or former Yugoslavia do not stem from transportation or land-use related factors, but rather from political attitudes and viewing the car as a status symbol. Policies set out by the government, such as introducing a cheap annual pass compared with most other cities, are seen negatively as a push to make people give up their cars and use public transit exclusively. The interviews have also found that perceptions of public transit for individuals with an immigration background are greatly influenced by previous experiences regarding public transit in other countries. This dissertation fills a methodological and substantial gap. First, it employs mixed-methods research design using phenomenology in the qualitative analysis to capture the experiences of the interview participants in an accurate way. Substantially, this research has shown, that policies which aim at incentivizing individuals to switch to public transit by offering affordable annual passes do not reach some individuals with an immigration background due to government skepticism. Cities employing transportation policies should not view transportation as a mere technical realm, but rather as a construct filled with social, cultural, and economic aspects. / Doctor of Philosophy / Most large cities in the world have large immigrant populations. However, there is not much scholarly research on how these people travel within these cities in daily life. Additionally, the perceptions of immigrants and non-immigrants regarding public transit will be examined. In this dissertation, there will be four main research topics. First, through statistical analysis, the differences of travelling within the city between immigrants and non-immigrants is analyzed. Second, the reasons and motivations behind these travel patterns will be investigated through interviews with immigrants and non-immigrants. Third, the differences in the perceptions of public transit between immigrants and non-immigrants will be understood. Finally, the underlying reasons behind the perceptions of public transit will be investigated. In this study, I am using statistical analysis as well as interviews to address the four research topics. The statistical analysis has shown that Turkish or former Yugoslavian immigrants are more likely to drive regularly, particularly when travelling for work-related purposes, compared to non-immigrants. The interviews have showed that the reason behind this travel behavior lies in a skeptical attitude towards public transit, which has primarily political reasons. Additionally, these immigrants see the car as a high-status symbol representing economic success

The commercial deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) is around the corner. With the development of automation technology, automobile and IT companies have started to test automated vehicles. Waymo, an automated driving technology development company, has recently opened the self-driving service to the public. The advancement in this emerging mobility option also drives transportation reasearchers and urban planners to conduct automated vehicle-related research, especially to gain insights on the impact of automated vehicles (AVs) in order to inform policymaking. However, the variation with urban form, the heterogeneity of mode choice, and the impacts at disaggregated levels lead to the dynamics of the impacts of AVs, which not comprehensively understood yet. Therefore, this dissertation extends existing knowledge base by understanding the dynamics of the impacts from three perspectives: (1) examining the role of urban form in the performance of SAV systems; (2) exploring the heterogeneity of AV mode choices across regions; and (3) investigating the distribution of energy consumption in the era of AVs. To examine the first aspect, Shared AV (SAV) systems are simulated for 286 cities and the simulation outcomes are regressed on urban form variables that measure density, diversity, and design. It is suggested that the compact development, a multi-core city pattern, high level of diversity, as well as more pedestrian-oriented networks can promote the performance of SAVs measured using service efficiency, trip pooling success rate, and extra VMT generation. The AV mode choice behaviors of private conventional vehicle (PCV) users in Seattle and Knasas City metropolitan areas are examined using an interpretable machine learning framework based on an AV mode choice survey. It is suggested that attitudes and trip and mode-specific attributes are the most predictive. Positive attitudes can promote the adoption of PAVs. Longer PAV in-vehicle time encourages the residents to keep the PCVs. Longer walking distance promotes the usage of SAVs. In addition, the effects of in-vehicle time and walking distance vary across the two examined regions due to distinct urban form, transportation infrustructure and cultural backgrounds. Kansas City residents can tolerate shorter walking distance before switching to SAV choices due to the car-oriented environment while Seattle residents are more sensitive to in-vehicle travel time because of the local congestion levels. The final part of the dissertation examines the demand for energy of AVs at disaggregated levels incorporating heterogeneity of AV mode choices. A three-step framework is employed including the prediction of mode choice, the determination of vehicle trajectories, and the estimation of the demand for energy. It is suggested that the AV scenario can generate -0.36% to 2.91% extra emissions and consume 2.9% more energy if gasoline is used. The revealed distribution of traffic volume suggests that the demand for charging is concentrated around the downtown areas and on highways if AVs consume electricity. In summary, the dissertation demonstrates that there is a dynamics with regard to the impacts and performance of AVs across regions due to various urban form, infrastructure and cultural environment, and the spatial heterogeneity within cities. / Doctor of Philosophy / Automated vehicles (AVs) have been a hot topic in recent years especially after various IT and automobile companies announced their plans for making AVs. Waymo, an automated driving technology development company, has recently opened the self-driving service to the public. Automated vehicles, which are defined as being able to self-drive, self-park, and automate routing, provide potentials for new business models such as privately owned automated vehicles (PAVs) that serve trips within households, shared AVs (SAVs) that offer door-to-door service to the public who request service using app-based platforms, and SAVs with pool where multiple passengers may be pooled together when the vehicles do not detour much if sequentially picking up and dropping off passengers. Therefore, AVs can transform the transportation system especially by reducing vehicle ownership and increasing travel distance. To plan for a sustainable future, it is important to gain an understanding of the impacts of AVs under various scenarios. Thus, a wealth of case studies explore the system performance of SAVs such as served trips per SAV per day. However, the impacts of AVs are not static and tend to vary across cities, depend on heterogeneous mode choices within regions, and may not be evenly distributed within a city. Therefore, this dissertation fills the research gaps by (1) investigating how urban features such as density may influence the system performance of SAVs; (2) exploring heterogeneity of key factors that influence the decisions about using AVs across regions; and (3) examining the distribution of the demand for energy in the era of AVs. The first study in the dissertation simulates the SAVs that serve trips within 286 cities and examines the relationship between the system performance of SAVs and city features such as density, diversity, and design. The system performance of SAVs is evaluated using served trips per SAV per day, percent of pooled trips that allow ridesharing, and percent of extra Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) compared to the VMT requested by the served trips. The results suggest that compact diverse development patterns and pedestrian-oriented networks can promote the performance of SAVs. The second study uses an interpretable machine learning framework to understand the heterogeneous mode choice behaviors of private car users in the era of AVs in two regions. The framework uses an AV mode choice survey, where respondents are asked to take mode choice experiments given attributes about the trips, to train machine learning models. Accumulated Local Effects (ALE) plots are used to analyze the model results. ALE outputs the accumulated change of the probability of choosing specific modes within small intervals across the range of the variable of interest. It is suggested that attitudes and trip-specific attributes such as in-vehicle time are the most important determinants. Positive attitudes, longer trips, and longer walking distance can promote the adoption of AV modes. In addition, the effects of in-vehicle time and walking distance vary across the two examined regions due to distinct urban form, transportation infrastructure, and cultural backgrounds. Kansas City residents can tolerate shorter walking distance before switching to SAV choices due to the car-oriented environment while Seattle residents are more sensitive to in-vehicle travel time because of the local congestion levels. The final part of the dissertation examines the demand for energy of AVs at disaggregated levels incorporating heterogeneity of AV mode choices. A three-step framework is employed including the prediction of mode choice, the determination of vehicle trajectories, and the estimation of the demand for energy. It is suggested that the AV scenario can generate -0.36% to 2.91% of extra emissions and consume 2.9% more energy compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario if gasoline is used. The revealed distribution of traffic volume suggests that the demand for charging is concentrated around the downtown areas and on highways if AVs consume electricity. In summary, the dissertation demonstrates that there is a dynamics with regard to the impacts and performance of AVs across regions due to various urban form, infrastructure and cultural environment, and the spatial heterogeneity within cities.

Die vorliegende Studienarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Fragestellung, inwiefern sich Revealed-Preference-Daten aus der deutschen Mobilitätsbefragung "Mobilität in Städten" SrV 2008 dazu eignen, um basierend auf denen im Datensatz enthaltenen Wegen Verkehrsmittelwahlmodelle zu schätzen. Dazu wurden Wegedaten aus der Befragung verwendet, und die Wahlalternativen mit Hilfe der Google Directions API rekonstruiert. Mit den rekonstruierten Variablen Reisezeit und Reisekosten sowie verschiedenen sozioökonomischen und externen Variablen aus SrV 2008 wurden verschiedene Wahlmodelle geschätzt. Durch schrittweises Hinzufügen der Variablen konnte das Modell immer weiter verbessert werden. Wie zu erwarten, erwiesen sich dabei die Reisezeit und die Reisekosten als hoch signifikant. Von den restlichen Variablen waren jedoch lediglich das Geschlecht der befragten Person sowie die Wettersituation zum Zeitpunkt der Wahlentscheidung signifikant. Für das finale Modell wurden Zeitkostensätze errechnet und mit verschiedenen europäischen Studien verglichen. Die errechneten Zeitkostensätze erwiesen sich dabei als plausibel. Die SrV-Daten eignen sich also für die Schätzung von Wahlmodellen. / The following thesis analyzes, if revealed preference data from the German mobility survey "Mobilität in Städten" SrV 2008 is suited to estimate mode choice models. For that purpose, trip data from the survey was used and the different choice alternatives were reconstructed with the Google Directions API. Several mode choice models were estimated with the help of the reconstructed variables travel time and travel costs plus several socioeconomic and external variables from SrV 2008. The variables were added to the model step by step, thereby the quality of the model improved. As expected, travel time and travel costs were highly significant. However from the remaining variables only the gender of the person and the weather at the time of the trip were significant. For the final model, values of time were calculated and these were compared with values from different European studies. The calculated values of time proved to be feasible. Therefore, SrV data is suited to be used for mode choice models.

Die vorliegende Studienarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Fragestellung, inwiefern sich Revealed-Preference-Daten aus der deutschen Mobilitätsbefragung "Mobilität in Städten" SrV 2008 dazu eignen, um basierend auf denen im Datensatz enthaltenen Wegen Verkehrsmittelwahlmodelle zu schätzen. Dazu wurden Wegedaten aus der Befragung verwendet, und die Wahlalternativen mit Hilfe der Google Directions API rekonstruiert. Mit den rekonstruierten Variablen Reisezeit und Reisekosten sowie verschiedenen sozioökonomischen und externen Variablen aus SrV 2008 wurden verschiedene Wahlmodelle geschätzt. Durch schrittweises Hinzufügen der Variablen konnte das Modell immer weiter verbessert werden. Wie zu erwarten, erwiesen sich dabei die Reisezeit und die Reisekosten als hoch signifikant. Von den restlichen Variablen waren jedoch lediglich das Geschlecht der befragten Person sowie die Wettersituation zum Zeitpunkt der Wahlentscheidung signifikant. Für das finale Modell wurden Zeitkostensätze errechnet und mit verschiedenen europäischen Studien verglichen. Die errechneten Zeitkostensätze erwiesen sich dabei als plausibel. Die SrV-Daten eignen sich also für die Schätzung von Wahlmodellen.:1 Einleitung 1 1.1 Vorstellung des Themas 1 1.2 Ziel dieser Arbeit 1 1.3 Gliederung dieser Arbeit 2 1.4 Wesentliche Ergebnisse 2 2 Theoretischer Hintergrund 3 2.1 Diskrete Wahltheorie 3 2.1.1 Deterministischer Nutzen 4 2.1.2 Stochastischer Störterm 5 2.1.3 Logit-Modell 6 2.2 Parameterschätzung 8 2.2.1 t-Test 9 2.2.2 Likelihood-Ratio Test 9 2.2.3 Likelihood-Ratio-Index 10 2.3 Datenquellen 10 3 Generierung eines RP-Datensatzes aus SrV-Daten 13 3.1 SrV 2008 13 3.2 Auswahl an Variablen und Datensätzen 13 3.3 Rekonstruktion der generischen Variablen 15 3.3.1 Google Directions API 15 3.3.2 Automatisierte API-Abfrage 16 3.3.3 Reisekosten 17 3.4 Erzeugter Datensatz 18 4 Modellentwicklung und Parameterschätzung 21 4.1 Entwicklung des Wahlmodells 21 4.2 Parameterschätzung mit Biogeme 24 4.3 Anwendung der Parameterschätzung auf die SrV-Daten 28 5 Diskussion der Modellergebnisse 33 5.1 Darstellung der Nutzeneinflüsse 33 5.2 Zeitkostensätze 35 5.3 Fehlerquellen 37 5.4 Fazit 38 Literaturverzeichnis 41 Datenquellen 45 Anhang 49 / The following thesis analyzes, if revealed preference data from the German mobility survey "Mobilität in Städten" SrV 2008 is suited to estimate mode choice models. For that purpose, trip data from the survey was used and the different choice alternatives were reconstructed with the Google Directions API. Several mode choice models were estimated with the help of the reconstructed variables travel time and travel costs plus several socioeconomic and external variables from SrV 2008. The variables were added to the model step by step, thereby the quality of the model improved. As expected, travel time and travel costs were highly significant. However from the remaining variables only the gender of the person and the weather at the time of the trip were significant. For the final model, values of time were calculated and these were compared with values from different European studies. The calculated values of time proved to be feasible. Therefore, SrV data is suited to be used for mode choice models.:1 Einleitung 1 1.1 Vorstellung des Themas 1 1.2 Ziel dieser Arbeit 1 1.3 Gliederung dieser Arbeit 2 1.4 Wesentliche Ergebnisse 2 2 Theoretischer Hintergrund 3 2.1 Diskrete Wahltheorie 3 2.1.1 Deterministischer Nutzen 4 2.1.2 Stochastischer Störterm 5 2.1.3 Logit-Modell 6 2.2 Parameterschätzung 8 2.2.1 t-Test 9 2.2.2 Likelihood-Ratio Test 9 2.2.3 Likelihood-Ratio-Index 10 2.3 Datenquellen 10 3 Generierung eines RP-Datensatzes aus SrV-Daten 13 3.1 SrV 2008 13 3.2 Auswahl an Variablen und Datensätzen 13 3.3 Rekonstruktion der generischen Variablen 15 3.3.1 Google Directions API 15 3.3.2 Automatisierte API-Abfrage 16 3.3.3 Reisekosten 17 3.4 Erzeugter Datensatz 18 4 Modellentwicklung und Parameterschätzung 21 4.1 Entwicklung des Wahlmodells 21 4.2 Parameterschätzung mit Biogeme 24 4.3 Anwendung der Parameterschätzung auf die SrV-Daten 28 5 Diskussion der Modellergebnisse 33 5.1 Darstellung der Nutzeneinflüsse 33 5.2 Zeitkostensätze 35 5.3 Fehlerquellen 37 5.4 Fazit 38 Literaturverzeichnis 41 Datenquellen 45 Anhang 49