This dissertation addresses the validation of the hypothesis there is a general sense that violence and security perception influence the use of sustainable travel modes. The research characterizes the issue of security perception among University of São Paulo (Brazil) users and identifies the way the sense of security and violence occurrences are related to the travel mode choice. An online survey on security perception and the way its participants access the campus was conducted. The target relationships were explored by Decision Tree (DT) algorithms. An initial exploratory analysis revealed occurrences of violence and reports of insecurity perception were strongly correlated on streets around the campus. The time analysis of violence distribution presented the incidents concentrated at night and during the week. The study also showed that security perception variation according to gender and travel mode choice is less sensitive to security perception than to the occurrence of violence, or type of affiliation to the university. Finally, DT algorithms explored the relation of spatially treated variables (i.e. route length to the university, density of violence occurrences and insecurity reports on the route) to mode choice. The results also showed that distance to the campus was relevant to the mode choice only in routes not strongly considered unsafe. In routes of higher insecurity perception, the share of nonmotorized modes was more expressive and the largest participation of sustainable modes was on routes with high incidence of violence. Since it is counterintuitive to assume numerous walking trips are a consequence of violence, the opposite was considered as a possible explanation to those results. The present study reinforces the need for increased surveillance in regions with high participation of non-motorized modes, for preventing users from shifting to motorized modes. / Esta dissertação busca comprovar a hipótese de que a violência e a percepção de segurança influenciam o uso de modos de transporte sustentáveis. A pesquisa caracteriza a questão da percepção de segurança entre os usuários da Universidade de São Paulo (Brasil), em São Carlos, e identifica como o sentimento de segurança pessoal e a violência estão relacionados com a escolha do modo de viagem. Foi realizada uma pesquisa on-line sobre a percepção de segurança dos usuários da universidade e a forma como eles acessam o campus. As interações foram exploradas por algoritmos de Árvore de Decisão (AD). Uma análise exploratória inicial mostrou que ocorrências de violência e relatos de insegurança estavam fortemente correlacionados nos trechos de via ao redor do campus. A análise temporal da distribuição da violência apresentou os incidentes concentrados à noite e durante os dias de semana. Além disso, a pesquisa mostrou que a percepção de segurança variou de acordo com o gênero e a escolha modal é menos sensível à percepção de segurança do que a ocorrência de violência, ou vinculação com a universidade. Por fim, os algoritmos de AD foram executados para explorar a relação das variáveis tratadas espacialmente (ou seja, o comprimento da rota até o campus, além da densidade de ocorrências e relatos de insegurança na rota) com a escolha modal. O último resultado obtido na análise foi que a distância até a universidade era relevante para a escolha modal apenas em rotas onde não há numerosos relatos de insegurança. A participação dos modos não motorizados foi mais expressiva nas rotas com maior percepção de insegurança, e em rotas com alta incidência de violência. Como não é razoável supor que mais viagens a pé são uma consequência dos roubos e sim o oposto, o estudo reforça a importância de aumentar a segurança nas regiões de alta incidência de viagens não motorizadas, de forma a não incentivar a migração destes usuários para modos motorizados.

Den här uppsatsen diskuterar hållbart resande, ett vanligt förekommande begrepp i och med det högaktuella begreppet hållbar utveckling. Hållbart resande undersöks i två mindre kommuner i Östergötland för att undersöka vilka uppfattningar och förutsättningar som medborgare och tjänstemän har. Uppsatsen studerar även vilka faktorer som påverkar vid val av färdmedel. Uppsatsen inkluderar intervjuer tillsammans med tjänstemän och medborgare i kommunerna Boxholm och Ödeshög. För att analysera det insamlade materialet tillämpas teorin social praktik, där begreppen kompetens, material och mening står i fokus. Resultatet visar på en gemensam syn gällande avsaknaden av tillgänglighet i kommunerna, framför allt till kollektivtrafik.  Det finns även en förändringsvilja i handlingsmönstret hos medborgarna till att resa mer hållbart men då kompetens och material saknas är det inte möjligt idag. Från kommunens sida finns det också en pågående förändringsvilja med visioner och ambitioner för att erbjuda medborgarna hållbara resalternativ. / This essay discusses sustainable travel which is a common concept in connection with sustainable development. Two small municipalities have been studied in Östergötland, Sweden to assess what individuals and planners think about sustainable travel in their communities. The method used in this essay was to interview with citizens and planners in the municipalities Ödeshög and Boxholm. To analyse the data collection, we apply the theory social practice which focuses on the three elements: materials, competences, meanings. The results show a lack of accessibility in the municipalities, especially in public transport. Furthermore, the result shows that the citizens have a will towards changing their behaviour to transport in a more sustainable way. From the citizens perspectives there was a lack of competences and materials which prevented them from traveling in a more sustainable way. We also saw a will from the planners to change behaviour in their ambitions towards more sustainable travel options.

Cette thèse se propose d’étudier le rôle de l’hétérogénéité des entreprises multinationales dans leurs stratégies d’investissements directs à l’étranger (IDE). Si de précédents travaux soulignent l’importance de la productivité individuelle des entreprises dans le fait de devenir une multinationale, peu évoquent l’hétérogénéité restante entre ces entreprises pour expliquer les différences de choix de mode d’entrée ou de motif d’implantation à l’étranger. A travers des approches théoriques et empiriques innovantes, basées sur l’utilisation de données confidentielles d’entreprises françaises, nous montrons que l’hétérogénéité des entreprises détermine chacun des trois aspects stratégiques détaillés dans cette thèse : Le taux de contrôle à l’étranger, le motif d’implantation et la structure du réseau de filiales. Plus précisément, la productivité et l'expérience de la firme favorisent un contrôle accru des filiales étrangères, leur importance relative dépendant du pays hôte. Ces caractéristiques sont également associées à une intégration plus profonde dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales, ainsi qu’à la constitution d'un réseau d’implantations plus original. Ces résultats permettent une meilleure compréhension des choix des multinationales, au-delà de l’apparente complexité des flux d’IDE. / This thesis examines the role of firms´ heterogeneity in the Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) strategies. We already know firms’ heterogeneity to sharply distinguish between domestic firms, exporters and multinationals (MNEs). Yet, to what extent it impacts their foreign direct investments (FDIs) strategies among MNEs is rarely evoked, while several entry mode choices and FDI motives coexist. Mixing both theoretical and empirical innovating approaches using French firm-level data, the four chapters of this PhD dissertation reveal that the firm heterogeneity influences all of the three dimensions of strategies we review: foreign ownership mode, FDI motive and structure of the overall network of affiliates. Specifically, firm-level productivity and international experience foster deeper integration with a changing relative importance according to the host country. They are also associated with production motives and vertical integration into the global value chains. The more productive firms also display original affiliates’ network structure. These findings allow a better understanding of multinationals’ choices underneath the ``complex’’ global picture of FDI flows

The Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) manages and maintains a complex state-wide network of highways. Recent incidents such as the collapse of the I-35W bridge in Min- neapolis, Minnesota, and the I-85/Piedmont Road fire and subsequent bridge collapse in Atlanta, Georgia, have brought identification of transportation network vulnerabilities to the forefront of UDOT’s planning efforts. Traditional estimates of transportation network impacts have focused on increases to user travel time or the volume of affected traffic, but studies of these disasters have revealed that when facing a degraded transportation network, people adjust their trip making in terms of destination, mode, and route choice. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the relative systemic criticality of highway links on Utah’s highway network using a logit-based model sensitive to changes in destination choice, mode choice, and route path. The current Utah Statewide Travel Model (USTM) does not incorporate user mode or destination choice, making it unsuitable for this task in its present condition. Consequently, this thesis develops a logit-based model structure that evaluates the cost of impaired destination choices and mode choices for home-based and non-home-based personal trips resulting from a damaged highway network. The choice model logsums capture the total value of user choices and can be readily converted to monetary values, making them ideal for this purpose. The logit-based model is then applied to 40 highway links located at strategic locations on Utah’s network. When compared with a more traditional travel time increase estimation, the logsum and travel time models provide categorically different cost estimates, where the logsum results are typically lower than travel time estimates, with implications for policy making and UDOT’s planning strategy. The results further suggest that freight trips are likely more important considerations than passenger trips, and should be considered in future research.

Denna uppsats försöker identifiera faktorer som förklarar varför cykelpendlingen till och från Stockholms innerstad har ökat mellan 1980 och 2020. Vi bildar och väljer ut tre linjära regressionsmodellerna vilka vi anser vara de bästa modellerna utifrån ett flertal urvalskriterier. Resultaten visar att alla inkluderade variabler är signifikanta i respektive modell. Våra resultat, vilka är i linje med tidigare forskning, visar vidare följande: (a) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett positivt samband med cykelinfrastrukturkostnader, vilket tyder på att bättre cykelinfrastruktur gör att fler väljer cykeln till jobbet; (b) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett positivt samband med befolkningsstorleken; (c) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett positivt samband med trängselskatten, vilket tyder på att en överföring sker där en del bilister byter till cykelpendling p.g.a. trängselskatt; (d) antalet cykelpendlingsresor har ett negativt samband med BNP per capita. Sammanfattningsvis indikerar resultaten att ett flertal faktorer har påverkat antalet cykelpendlingsresor till och från Stockholms innerstad mellan 1980 och 2020. / This thesis attempts to identify factors that explain why bicycle commuting in and out of Stockholm City Centre has increased between the years 1980 and 2020. We create and select three linear regression models, which we consider to be the best models based on several selection criteria. Our results show that the included variables in each respective model are significant. Our results, which are in line with previous findings in the literature, moreover, show the following: (a) the number of bicycle commuting trips is positively associated with bicycle infrastructure costs, which indicates that better bicycle infrastructure leads to more people bicycling to work; (b) the number of bicycle commuting trips is positively associated with population size; (c) the number of bicycle commuting trips is positively associated with the congestion tax, which indicates that a modal shift takes place where some motorists switch to bicycle commuting because of the congestion tax; (d) the number of bicycle commuting trips is negatively associated with GDP per capita. In summary, the results indicate that several factors have affected the number of commuting trips by bicycle in and out of Stockholm City Centre between 1980 and 2020.

The Stockholm Congestion Tax Trial is one of the few projects where an automatic system was implemented to tax road vehicles in order to reduce congestion. The taxation period lasted from January until July 2006 and vehicles going in or out of the inner city during daytime were taxed with 10 to 20 SEK (1.07 to 2.14 Euro). The project included improved public transportation and more park & ride sites. The trial was limited to a half year and the public was able to vote on the congestion tax afterwards. A large research package was set up in order to inform everybody about the effects of the tax. The referendum was positive and the congestion tax is permanent today, but the data collected for research purposes is not fully analyzed yet. This thesis focuses on travel behavior of the population in Stockholm County and uses a household panel survey with 24,000 individuals. The waves took place in September 2004 and March 2006.The main idea is to use the advantages of the panel survey and keep track of how the individuals behaved during the two waves. The analysis is done separately for each trip purpose and examines the change of mode choice during the second wave in comparison to the individual’s choice before the congestion tax. This can be even specified for different socio-demographic groups.The cross-sectional comparison shows that avoiding trips to and from the inner city is not an option. The number of trips of the individuals passing through the congestion tax cordon is reduced to a lower extend by seasonal influences than the trips in all other parts of the county. Therefore the inner city has become more attractive as a origin or destination or the trips passing through the cordon can not be substituted by trips free of tax.Public transportation is the mode which benefits most from the congestion tax in terms of modal split. The importance of it increases in the whole county, but the gain is a lot higher for trips through the cordon. The modes foot and bike are not a relevant alternative for trips through the cordon because of long distances in general and cold weather during the survey. The panel analysis shows that many more people doing cordon passages to work, home and shopping change from car to public transportation in comparison to the rest of the county. Changes from public transport to car occur less often for cordon passages than for trips not being taxed.Certain socio-demographic groups adapt differently to the congestion tax. Compared to men, up to 30 percent point fewer women continue to use the car depending on the trip purpose. This may be related to personal income, but the variables household income has proofed to have a smaller impact. Only really poor households use the car a lot less often and the highest income group tends to continue to drive by car.The main limiting factor of the analysis is the seasonal and weather influence because of unusual cold weather during the second wave. It is not possible to take this completely into account because the control group of the cordon passages has different trip characteristics.The thesis provides better knowledge how a congestion tax affects the behavior of the people. It allows checking the reasonability of transportation modeling results and shows that certain socio-demographic variables should be used if modeling is done for areas with a different composition of the population than Stockholm. / Der Versuch der Stockholmer Innenstadtmaut ist eines der wenigen Projekte, bei dem ein automatisches Mauterhebungssystem für Fahrzeuge zur Stauminderung eingeführt wurde. Der Versuchszeitraum mit Mauterhebung reichte von Januar bis Juli 2006. Alle Fahrzeuge, die in und aus der Innenstadt fuhren, mussten tagsüber 10 bis 20 SEK (1,07 bis 2,14 Euro) bezahlen. Das Projekt beinhaltete einen verbesserten öffentlichen Personennahverkehr und mehr Park&Ride-Stellplätze.Der Versuch war auf ein halbes Jahr begrenzt und im Anschluss wurde eine Volksabstimmung durchgeführt. Zur Information der Bevölkerung über die Auswirkungen der Maut wurde ein großes Forschungspaket aufgelegt. Die Volkabstimmung verlief positiv und die Maut ist heute dauerhaft eingeführt, aber die gesammelten Daten aus dem Forschungsprojekt sind noch nicht vollständig ausgewertet. Diese Arbeit konzentriert sich auf das Mobilitätsverhalten der Bevölkerung im Bezirk Stockholm und verwendet eine Panelbefragung in Haushalten mit 24.000 Teilnehmern. Die Befragungswellen fanden im September 2004 und März 2006 statt.Die Untersuchung verfolgt das Verhalten einzelner Individuen während der beiden Wellen und nutzt somit die Vorteile, die die Panelbefragung bietet. Die Analyse wird separat für jeden Wegezweck durchgeführt und betrachtet die Änderung der Verkehrmittelwahl während der zweiten Welle im Vergleich zur ursprünglichen Wahl vor der Maut. Dies wird durch die Auswertung einzelner soziodemographischer Gruppen ergänzt.Die Querschnittsuntersuchung zeigt, dass die Maut nicht zu einer Vermeidung von Wegen in oder aus der Innenstadt führt. Die Anzahl an Wegen durch den Mautgürtel nimmt leichter durch saisonale Einflüsse ab als in anderen Teilen des Bezirkes. Somit ist die Stadt entweder als Quell- oder Zielgebiet attraktiver geworden oder die Wege durch den Mautgürtel können nicht durch kostenfreie Fahrten ersetzt werden.Der öffentliche Personennahverkehr profitiert im Sinne vom Modal Split am meisten von der Maut. Die Bedeutung steigt im gesamten Bezirk, aber das Wachstum ist deutlich stärker für Wege durch den Mautgürtel. Die Verkehrsmittel Fuß und Fahrrad sind keine Alternative für die kostenpflichtigen Wege, da die Reiseweiten zu hoch sind und das Wetter zu kalt war. Die Panelanalyse zeigt, dass deutlich mehr Personen mit Wegen durch den Mautgürtel zur Arbeit, nach Hause und zum Einkaufen vom Auto zum öffentlichen Verkehr umsteigen als im Rest des Bezirks. Wechsel vom öffentlichen Verkehr zum Auto treten seltener bei Wegen in oder aus der Innenstadt auf als bei kostenfreien Fahrten.Einzelne soziodemographische Gruppen passen sich besonders an die Maut an. Frauen ersetzen je nach Wegezweck im Vergleich zu Männern bis zu 30 % häufiger das Auto durch alternative Verkehrsmittel. Dies kann mit geringerem persönlichen Einkommen zusammenhängen, aber die Variable Haushaltseinkommen hat in der Untersuchung einen eher geringen Einfluss bewiesen. Nur sehr arme Haushalte nutzen das Auto deutlich weniger und die Haushalte in der höchsten Einkommensgruppe behalten die Autonutzung bei.Die gesamte Analyse wird durch saisonale Einflüsse und das Wetter eingeschränkt, das während der zweiten Welle ungewöhnlich kalt war. Dieser Einfluss kann nicht vollständig berücksichtigt werden, da die Kontrollgruppe für die Wege durch den Mautgürtel Unterschiede bei der Wegecharakteristik aufweist.Die Studienarbeit verbessert das Wissen über Verhaltensänderungen der Menschen durch eine Maut. Sie ermöglicht die Überprüfung von Ergebnissen der Verkehrsmodellierung und zeigt, dass einzelne soziodemographische Merkmale für die Modellierung in anderen Regionen genutzt werden sollten, wenn die Zusammensetzung der Bevölkerung von Stockholm abweicht. / Stockholmsförsöket är ett av de få projekten som brukar ett automatik systemet för beskatta fordon med trängselskatt. Syftet är att minska trängseln på gatorna. Försöksperioden låg mellan januari och juli 2006. Fordon som åkte in eller ut i innerstaden måste betala 10 till 20 SEK under dagtid. Försöket omfattade förbättrad kollektivtrafik samt fler infartsparkeringar.Försöket var begränsat till ett halvt år och allmänhet hade folkomröstning om skatten senare. En stort  paket med många forskningsprojekt startas för att informera alla om effekter av skatt. Folkomröstning gav ett jakande svar och trängselskatt är idag permanent. Men all samlad data är ännu inte analyserad. Det här examensarbetet koncentrerar på resvanor av alla invånare i Stockholms Län och använder kohortstudier med 24 000 personer. Vågor uppstod i september 2004 och mars 2006.Huvudideen var att  använda sig av kohortstudier och studera beteendet i båda vågorna. Alla ärenden analyserades separat och skillnaderna på färdmedelna undersötes mellan förre och efter trängselskatt. Det kan även bli specificerad för flera olika sociala bakgrundsgrupper.Tvärsnittstudiens analys visar att förhindra resor till och från innerstaden inte är ett alternativ. Antal av resenärer som passerat avgiftssnittet har inte minskat så mycket av väder än alla andra resor i länet. Innerstaden är mer attraktiv som utgångspungt eller destination. De kan inte ersättnas med resor som kostar ingen skatt.Färdmedelfördelning har förbättrats för kollektivtrafiken på grund av trängselskatt. Kollektivtrafiken ökar i hela länet, men vinsten är störst för resor som passerat avgiftnittet. Färdmedeln fot och cykel är inget alternativ på grund av långt avstånd och dåligt väder under andra vågor. Kohortstudier visar att många resenärer byter från bil till kollektivtrafiken när man resan till jobbet, hemmet och inför shoping om man jämför med hela länet. Växling från kollektivtrafiken till bil är mindre för resorna som måste betala skatt.Några sociala grupper anpassar sig annorlunda till trängselskatten. Kvinnor åker bil ner till 30 procent mindre än men. Orsak är kanske lägre personlig inkomst, men variabel hushållinkomst har mindre effekt. Fattiga hushåll andvänder  bil mycket mindre än rika hushåll, som åker bil mycket mer.Huvudbegränsningen av analysen är årstiderna och vädret,, som tillexempel ovanlig kallt väder under andra vågoen. Man kan inte förklara hela effekten därför att kontrollgruppen av har olika egenskaper.Examensarbetet  bättre kunskap hur trängselskatten påverkar beteendet av människor. Det möjliggör att kontrollera transportmodellerings resultat och visar att några variabler skulle användas om modellering skulle göras i annan region med en annan typ av  sammansättning av befolkning  än i Stockholm.

Value-items from the Schwartz scale of Values have been added to travel data to investigate if the value-items can be used to model mode choice. Two kinds of mode choice models, both discrete choice models, multinomial models (MNL) and the Machine Learning Models Random Forests (RF) were constructed, using Travel Diary data (RVU) and additional data from European Social Survey (ESS). The additional data was connected to the base data by grouping the individuals using three key variables: gender, age, and household income. Models were then created with and without any data from the value-items to screen for variables that had an impact on the model. The RF model predicted the correct modes for all but the smaller groups, car passengers and biking. While the MNL model had less success accurately assessing which mode someone had chosen. The MNL with additional grouped value-items improved, while the models created using Random Forest had no difference in accuracy based on the addition. Even though there were some significant value-items in the MNL-models, the expected consequences from them small, as the base model specification might be insufficient in incorporating more relevant variables. Based on the Random Forest having no use from the value-items along with them being of similar importance no value-items stood out for further testing. The main findings were thus that no value-items of particular interest could be found with the RF model while the results for the MNL-model were inconclusive. Suggested improvements for further similar studies would be to perform grouping using data for a longer time frame and or to use a value-model as input for the mode choice modelling. It is deemed appropriate to study what values people associate with specific modes directly, and to investigate if other models such as car ownership models or models of choices between different versions of the same mode could be more suitable for additional value-data. / Värdeobjekt från Schwartz värderingsskala har kombinerats med resedata för att undersöka om värdeobjekten kan användas vid modellering av färdmedelsval. Två typer av färdmedelsmodeller, multinomiala modeller (MNL) och Random Forests konstruerades. Den data som användes var Resvanedata (RVU), med kompletterande värderingsdata från European Social Survey (ESS). ESS-datan kopplades till basdatan genom att gruppera individerna med hjälp av tre nyckelvariabler: kön, ålder och hushållsinkomst. Sedan skapades modeller med och utan den kompletterande datan för att se om modellerna påverkades. RF-modellens resultat överensstämde väl med de faktiska valen förutom för de mindre grupperna: bilpassagerare och cyklister. MNL-modellen hade mindre framgång med att bedöma vilket färdmedel en individ hade valt. MNL-modellen med ytterligare grupperade värdeobjekt förbättrades i jämförelse med grundmodellen, medan modellerna skapade med Random Forest inte skilde sig märkbart från varandra. Även om värdeobjekten i MNL-modellerna var signifikanta är de förväntade konsekvenserna av dem små, eftersom specifikationen för basmodellen tros saknar andra mer relevanta variabler. RF-modellen gynnades inte av värdeobjekten och inga värdeobjekt var betydande för modellen. De huvudsakliga fynden var att inga värdeobjekt av särskilt intresse kunde hittas med RF-modellen medan resultaten för MNL-modellen var ofullständiga. Föreslagna förbättringar för ytterligare liknande studier skulle vara att utföra gruppering med hjälp av data för ett längre tidsspann eller att introducera en värdemodell som indata för modelleringen av färdmedelsval. Det bedöms lämpligt att studera vilka värderingar människor förknippar med specifika färdmedel direkt samt att undersöka om andra modeller såsom av bilägande eller i val mellan olika versioner av samma färdmedel skulle var mer passande för att modelleras med hjälp av data med värderingar.

<p>This study explores telecommuter travel behaviour by examining discretionary travel distance and mode choice. The study utilizes data obtained from the 2005 origin-destination survey conducted by TRANS, a joint transportation planning committee serving the National Capital Region of Canada. The study compares and explains the discretionary travel behavior of teleworkers relative to other population groups and identifies that the average teleworker travels 3 times farther than regular workers and 1.7 times farther than non-workers for discretionary purposes. Regression indicates that dependent children, vehicle accessibility, housing type, residential distance to the urban core, land-use mix, residence within a Greenbelt region and day of the week all positively affect travel distance. Conversely, age, proximity to shopping centers and inclement weather demonstrate significant negative effects. Then, through binary logistic regression, the study confirms that work status significantly influences mode choice. Similarly, the following predictor variables demonstrate a significant positive effect towards active mode choice: teleworker work status, larger household size, greater income, warmer temperature, closer proximity to shopping centers, apartment housing type, trips for recreational and restaurant purposes, taking subsequent trips in a day, and travel between 8:00 A.M. and 4:00 P.M. On the contrary, increased entropy, trips within the Greenbelt region, dependent children under 16 years old, increased vehicle accessibility and trips for transporting someone or for shopping purposes all reduce the probability of active travel mode choice.</p> / Master of Arts (MA)

The competitiveness of public transport on example of the Pardubice Region Abstract This diploma thesis is devoted to the competitiveness of public transport in the municipalities of the Pardubice Region. Competitiveness is understood mainly in terms of the price difference between travel time and cost of public and individual car transport, and also in terms of the real demand in the municipalities, thus the share of commuting by public transport. Other parameters of mode choice, that is understood as the main indicator of competitiveness, is the number of public transport lines and automobilization. The main objective of this work is to determine how public transportation depends on the other transport characteristics of municipalities. To select significant variables, multiple linear regression analysis was used. After that, geographically weighted regression was applied in order to explain the share of commuting from municipalities. Most data originate in public databases (The Register of vehicles of Department of Transport, population census, digital geographic databases ArcČR and CEDA) and web portals (OREDO, IDOS), part of the data was obtained within questionnaire survey in selected municipalities. An expected negative relationship between the degree of automobilization and the number of public...

Cette thèse a pour objectif d’incorporer des éléments de théories de psychologie et d’économie comportementale dans des modèles de choix discret afin d’améliorer la compréhension du choix modal réalisé à l’échelle régionale. Les estimations se basent sur une enquête de type choice experiment présentée en première partie. Une deuxième partie s’intéresse à l’incorporation de variables latentes pour expliquer le choix modal. Après une revue de littérature sur les modèles de choix hybrides, c’est-à-dire des modèles combinant modèle d’équations structurelles et modèle de choix discret, un tel modèle est estimé pour montrer comment l’hétérogénéité d’outputs économiques (ici, la valeur du temps) peut être expliquée à l’aide de variables latentes (ici, le confort perçu dans les transports en commun) et de variables observables (ici, la garantie d’une place assise). La simulation de scénarios montre cependant que le gain économique (diminution de la valeur du temps) est plus élevé lorsque les politiques agissent sur des dimensions palpables que sur des dimensions latentes. S’appuyant sur un modèle de médiation, l’estimation d’un modèle d’équations structurelles montre par ailleurs que l’effet de la conscience environnementale sur les habitudes de choix modal est partiellement médié par l’utilité indirecte retirée de l’usage des transports en commun. Une troisième partie s’intéresse à deux formalisations de l’utilité issues de l’économie comportementale : 1) l’utilité dépendante au rang en situation de risque et 2) l’utilité dépendante à la référence. Dans un premier temps, un modèle d’utilité dépendante au rang est inséré dans des modèles de choix discret et, en particulier, un modèle à classes latentes, afin d’analyser l’hétérogénéité intra- et inter-individuelle lorsque le temps de déplacement n’est pas fiable. La probabilité de survenue d’un retard est sur-évaluée pour les déplacements en train et sous-évaluée pour les déplacements en voiture, en particulier pour les automobilistes, les usagers du train prenant d’avantage en compte l’espérance du temps de déplacement. Dans les modèles prenant en compte l’aversion au risque, les fonctions d’utilité sont convexes, ce qui implique une décroissance,de la valeur du temps. Dans un deuxième temps, une nouvelle famille de modèles de choix discret généralisant le modèle logit multinomial, les modèles de référence, est estimée. Sur mes données, ces modèles permettent une meilleure sélection des variables explicatives que le logit multinomial et l’estimation d’outputs économiques plus robustes, notamment en cas de forte hétérogénéité inobservée. La traduction économique des modèles de référence montre que les meilleurs modèles empiriques sont également les plus compatibles avec le modèle de dépendance à la référence de Tversky et Kahneman. / The objective of this thesis is to incorporate aspects of psychology and behavioral economics theories in discrete choice models to promote a better understanding of mode choice at regional level. Part II examines the inclusion of latent variables to explain mode choice. A literature review of integrated choice and latent variable models – that is, models combining a structural equation model and a discrete choice model – is followed by the estimation of an integrated choice and latent variable model to show how the heterogeneity of economic outputs (here, value of time) can be explained with latent variables (here, perceived comfort in public transport) and observable variables (here, the guarantee of a seat). The simulation of scenarios shows, however, that the economic gain (decrease in value of time) is higher when policies address tangible factors than when they address latent factors. On the basis of a mediation model, the estimation of a structural equation model furthermore implies that the influence of environmental concern on mode choice habits is partially mediated by the indirect utility derived frompublic transport use. Part III examines two utility formulations taken from behavioral economics: 1) rankdependent utility to model risky choices, and 2) reference-dependent utility. Firstly, a rank-dependent utility model is included in discrete choice models and, in particular, a latent-class model, in order to analyze intra- and inter-individual heterogeneity when the travel time is subject to variability. The results show that the probability of a delay is over-estimated for train travel and under-estimated for car travel, especially for car users, as train users are more likely to take into account the expected travel time. In the models that account for risk aversion, the utility functions are convex, which implies a decrease in value of time. Secondly, a new family of discrete choice models generalizing the multinomial logit model, the reference models, is estimated. On my data, these models allow for a better selection of explanatory variables than the multinomial logit model and a more robust estimation of economic outputs, particularly in cases of high unobserved heterogeneity. The economic formulation of reference models shows thatthe best empirical models are also more compatible with Tversky et Kahneman’s reference-dependent model.