The fast expansion of the shadow banking industry and its unregulated risks pose great challenges to the People's Bank of China. This paper uses the classic money multiplier and velocity models to investigate the impact of shadow banks on the effectiveness of monetary policies from 2006 to 2016.The time-series regression results show that shadow banks have a positive relationship with the velocity and a negative one with the multiplier. As the non-banks disrupt the traditional credit creation process and the central bank loses control of two important monetary indicators, the paper then discusses possible new intermediate targets and reforms that can alleviate the shadow banking problems.

O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar as políticas monetárias desde a proclamação da República (1889) até o momento do Convênio de Taubaté (1906). Destacando a tensão entre as propostas monetárias possíveis num país que saía da escravidão dentro de um mundo cujo centro econômico gravitava no padrão-ouro. Buscaremos rastrear as contribuições e os problemas para o desenvolvimento econômico das diferentes correntes políticas em ação, partindo do histórico confronto, vindo do Império, entre metalistas e papelistas. Para tanto, começamos com uma retomada historiográfica desde antes do começo da República até o período do Convênio de Taubaté (1906). Num segundo momento analisaremos os discursos políticos e relatórios ministeriais de Rui Barbosa e Joaquim Murtinho. Tendo nestes dois personagens como referências do período, rastrearemos quais moedas foram desejadas e possíveis para a construção do desenvolvimento econômico. Assim como quais grupos e eixos econômicos sustentaram e cresceram no desenvolvimento de tais moedas / Studying monetary policies from the beginning of the Brazilian Republic (1889) until the Convênio de Taubaté (1906). Highlighting the tension between the possible monetary proposals in a country emerging from slavery in a world whose economic center gravitated around the gold standard. We will seek to track the contributions for the economic development of different political currents in action, leaving the historic confrontation between bullionists Vs papelistas in Empire. For this we start with a historiographical recovery from the beginning of the Republic until the period of the Agreement of Taubaté (1906). In the third chapter we will analyze political speeches and ministerial reports from Rui Barbosa and Joaquim Murtinho. Having these two leaders as references

O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar as políticas monetárias desde a proclamação da República (1889) até o momento do Convênio de Taubaté (1906). Destacando a tensão entre as propostas monetárias possíveis num país que saía da escravidão dentro de um mundo cujo centro econômico gravitava no padrão-ouro. Buscaremos rastrear as contribuições e os problemas para o desenvolvimento econômico das diferentes correntes políticas em ação, partindo do histórico confronto, vindo do Império, entre metalistas e papelistas. Para tanto, começamos com uma retomada historiográfica desde antes do começo da República até o período do Convênio de Taubaté (1906). Num segundo momento analisaremos os discursos políticos e relatórios ministeriais de Rui Barbosa e Joaquim Murtinho. Tendo nestes dois personagens como referências do período, rastrearemos quais moedas foram desejadas e possíveis para a construção do desenvolvimento econômico. Assim como quais grupos e eixos econômicos sustentaram e cresceram no desenvolvimento de tais moedas / Studying monetary policies from the beginning of the Brazilian Republic (1889) until the Convênio de Taubaté (1906). Highlighting the tension between the possible monetary proposals in a country emerging from slavery in a world whose economic center gravitated around the gold standard. We will seek to track the contributions for the economic development of different political currents in action, leaving the historic confrontation between bullionists Vs papelistas in Empire. For this we start with a historiographical recovery from the beginning of the Republic until the period of the Agreement of Taubaté (1906). In the third chapter we will analyze political speeches and ministerial reports from Rui Barbosa and Joaquim Murtinho. Having these two leaders as references

This thesis examines the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Pakistan by utilizing an open economy framework. There is a great need for research about the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies as the knowledge of the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policy could prove useful to policymakers and help them understand the macroeconomic adjustment processes of these policy measures.

The subject of this thesis is the relationship that exists between deflation and the macroeconomic stability of the economy. Much literature has been published on this topic, but there is still a dearth of quantitative research based on strong empirical work. In the present work I have used a set of large panel data composed of 18 countries over 34 years in order to analyze the relationship between changes in inflation and output growth in a more complete and rigorous fashion. I use 3 different econometric models, namely fixed effects, random effects and the generalized method of moments. I chose these models in order to more appropriately examine the contemporaneous and lagged correlation between prices and output of countries. I also introduced foreign direct investment as a control variable to avoid the presence of potential bias. The empirical work presented in this paper leads to several findings. First, there is an insignificant relationship between a country's GDP growth and its deflation rate. Second, the relation between inflation and GDP growth is significant, and this relation becomes even positive when the econometric model is conducted on the data excluding outliers. Third, FDI positively contributes to and is partly responsible for the level of economic growth of the countries...

La crise financière et ´économique a remis en cause les modalités de mise en œuvre et de fonctionnement de la politique monétaire. Avant la crise, la politique monétaire était simplement retranscrite par une règle de taux d’intérêt. Désormais, les instruments et les canaux de transmission sont devenus complexes et les effets incertains. Dans cette perspective, cette thèse propose une évaluation théorique et empirique des politiques monétaires non conventionnelles dans l’environnement hétérogène qu’est la zone euro. Le chapitre 1 analyse les effets de ces politiques sur le coût du crédit aux entreprises. Nous montrons que les effets directs ont été limités. Néanmoins, les mesures non conventionnelles ont été efficaces dans l’accompagnement de la politique de taux zéro (effets indirects). Le chapitre 2 porte sur l’impact de ces politiques sur la courbe des taux et la prime souveraine. Nous montrons que ces mesures ont permis de réduire les primes. Toutefois, leur transmission est hétérogène entre les pays et dans le temps, suivant la perception des investisseurs. Nous ´étudions au chapitre 3 les conséquences macro-économiques et financières de ces politiques. Il ressort qu’elles se transmettent à l’économie par une hausse du prix des actifs suivie d’une baisse des taux d’intérêt. De ce fait, les conditions de crédit se sont assouplies, ce qui a relancé l’activité de financement bancaire. Ces politiques ont amélioré la compétitivité, stimulé la demande et augmenté le taux d’inflation. Néanmoins, leurs effets sur l’activité et les conditions d’offre et de demande de crédit sont lents dans certains pays. Dans le chapitre 4, nous montrons avec un modèle DSGE, qu’une forte capitalisation bancaire et un secteur bancaire en bonne santé renforcent la transmission des politiques non conventionnelles conformément à ce qui avait ´été trouvé empiriquement dans la première partie de la thèse. / The financial and economic crisis has challenged the implementation and the transmission channels ofthe monetary policy. Before the crisis, monetary policy was conducted through a simple interest rate rule.Now, instruments and channels of transmission have become complex and uncertain. In this perspective, thisthesis focuses on theoretical and empirical evaluation of unconventional monetary policies in the heterogeneousenvironment that is the euro area. Chapter 1 analyses the effects of these policies on the cost of credit toenterprises. We show that the direct effects have been limited. Nevertheless, unconventional policies havebeen effective in supporting the zero interest rate policy (indirect effects). Chapter 2 focuses on the effects ofthese policies on the yield curve and the sovereign premium. We point out that these policies have reducedpremiums. Their transmission is strongly influenced by the market expectations and heterogeneous acrosscountries and over time. We discuss in Chapter 3 the macroeconomic and financial implications of thesepolicies. We show that they increased asset prices and lowered interest rates. As a result, credit conditionswere relaxed, which boosted bank lending. These policies have improved the competitiveness of the country,increased output and inflation. However, their effects on the real activity, the credit standard and the creditdemand is slow in some countries. By using a DSGE model in Chapter 4, we find that a strong bankcapitalization and a healthy banking sector enhance the transmission of unconventional policies, in accordancewith what has been found empirically in the first part of the thesis.

Diss. Uppsala : Uppsala universitet, 2007.

The repo rate, which is the key interest rate, set by the central banks has been declining for many years and hitting zero in Sweden in late 2014. We analyse the effectiveness on the economy from a change in the repo rate, comparing two time periods with high and low repo rate environments. We use quarterly data on GDP and its components, between 1994 and 2019. For analysing the effectiveness, we use multiple Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling to compute a total of 12 models. In our findings, we saw that the effectiveness of a change in repo rate has been increased in the low repo rate environment, making it harder to increase the rate without harming the economy but also increasing the effect of a decrease in the repo rate. Also, we found that the investment component of GDP may exhibit extra high effectiveness in the low repo rate environment. This method of analysing the repo rates impact on the economy could be used for decision makers regarding monetary policies.

This study proposes a “new" consumer price index (CPI) and investigates the influence of Sweden's monetary policy on the new index level and its variations over time. Unlike the traditional CPI that the SCB uses, the "new" CPI tries to consider technology improvements by using macro data. The research demonstrates that the "new" CPI resulted in less inflation than the traditional CPI computed from 1981 to 2020. The research predicts that the difference between the two CPIs would keep growing through 2020–2024, indicating that using the "new" CPI will lead to a more conservative approach to monetary policy. The findings suggest that policymakers should update the CPI regularly to reflect changes in consumer behavior and technological advancement, acknowledge the uncertainty associated with forecasting inflation, and be transparent with the public about the limitations of forecasting models. This study emphasizes the potential benefits of incorporating technology improvements into the CPI and its influence on monetary policy.

This thesis examines both conventional and unconventional monetary policies in a DSGE model with an interbank market friction. The recent crisis during 2007-2009 affected economies worldwide and forced central banks to implement not just conventional monetary policies, but also direct interventions in financial markets. We investigate a DSGE model with financial frictions, to test conventional and unconventional monetary policies. The thesis starts by using the Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010)'s modelling framework, to examine eight different shocks under imperfect interbank market conditions. Unlike Gertler and Kiyotaki (2010) who consider the two extreme cases for the banking system, I firstly extend the analysis to a case in between the two extreme cases that they examined. The shocks considered include supply and demand shocks and also two shocks from the financial system itself (an interbank market shock and a shock to the deposit market). It is found that a negative shock to the interbank market has only a moderate impact to the banking system. However, a shock to the deposit market has a much stronger impact. Even though the impacts of these shocks are not large it is shown that thefinancial frictions magnify the effects of other shocks. The model is extended to include price stickiness. A modified Taylor rule is analysed to test how conventional monetary policy should respond to the shocks in the presence of financial frictions. Specifically the credit spread is added as a third term in the monetary policy rule. The stabilising properties of the policy rule are analysed and a welfare analysis is conducted. The model is further developed to include unconventional monetary policy in the form of direct lending to private sector firms from the central bank. A policy rule for unconventional policy is tested and its stabilising and welfare properties are analysed.