Modern engineering structures should ensure an economic design, construction and operation of structures in compliance with the required safety for persons and the environment. In order to achieve this aim, all contingencies and associated consequences that may possibly occur throughout the life cycle of the considered structure have to be taken into account. Today, the development is often based on decision theory, methods of structural reliability and the modeling of consequences. Failure consequences are one of the significant issues that determine optimal structural reliability. In particular, consequences associated with the failure of structures are of interest, as they may lead to significant indirect consequences, also called follow-up consequences. However, apart from determining safety levels based on failure consequences, it is also crucially important to have effective models for stress forces and maintenance planning ... (aus dem Vorwort)

<p><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"> <p>The objective of the study was to find out whether the decentralisation of responsibulities for social economics development facilitated the management of disaster risk during the 2007 floods in Mozambique. the specific aims of the study were to : analyse <font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3">and discuss national policies for decentralisation and their significance for DRM.&nbsp / Investigate which responsibilities, human and financial resources were available to local governments&nbsp / for the planning, implemantations and monitoring of DRM activities. Identify&nbsp / mechanisms institutions and activities for DRM and&nbsp / find out whether they provided to be effective. Explore how concerned&nbsp / communities participated in DRM activitiesto reduce&nbsp / their vulnerability to disaster risk.&nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / </font></font><font face="SymbolMT" size="3"><font face="SymbolMT" size="3"> <p>&nbsp / </p> </font></font>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> </font></font></font></font></font></font></p> <p>&nbsp / </p>

This thesis analyses the glacier fluctuations in New Zealand since late Pliocen until today (2017) and evaluates GLOFs (Glacier Lake Outburst Floods) hazards from all proglacial lakes of New Zealand. Background research of a wide range of scientific sources was used to describe New Zealand glacier fluctuations during the last ~2.6 Ma, uncover local climatic and tectonic specifics, describe uneven behaviour of different glacier types and summarise current knowledge about climatological forcings to New Zealand glaciers. Compared to the timing of glaciations in the Norther Hemisphere, an earlier onset of LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) and LIA (Little Ice Age) was recorded in New Zealand. A dramatic glacier advance of short- to medium-response time glaciers was recorded between 1983 and 1999. This advance was caused by changes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns around New Zealand. A detailed study of the past events revealed that really few events were recorded in New Zealand history. While englacial outburst floods are relatively common from Franz Josef Glacier, no moraine dam rupture and only two GLOFs from a proglacial lake were recorded in New Zealand history. Inventory of proglacial lakes of New Zealand completed from remote sensing data was done to further evaluate the hazards of GLOFs. 25...

In this thesis, I conduct a global event-data study investigating the relationship between exposure to natural hazards and climate change adaptation. Exposure to natural hazards has previously been linked to actions aimed at reducing risks related to future natural hazards. With climate change, and predicted increase in hazard frequency and intensity, a feasible approach to risk mitigation is climate change adaptation, which can thus be considered a disaster risk reduction strategy. I investigate the effects of disaster frequency and severity on the amount of climate change adaptation actions taken on a subnational level of government, using disaster data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and data on adaptation actions from CDP. Disaster severity is operationalised in three separate ways to distinguish between different kinds of disaster impacts: in terms of (1) economic damage, (2) how many are affected, and (3) fatalities. I hypothesise that all independent variables are positively related to climate change adaptation, and test the hypotheses using OLS regression. The result depicts a positive correlation between the number of disasters experienced and adaptation actions. I do not see a positive relationship between climate change adaptation actions and the two impact variables total affected and total fatalities. The relationship between economic damages and adaptation actions indicates that economic damages could have different impacts depending on the level of economic development in a country. This study contributes to the integration of the two research fields climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction by studying climate change adaptation as a form of disaster risk reduction, and deepening the knowledge of what can drive adaptation. Finally, this study contributes by showing that the level of economic development could be an important aspect of the exposure-adaptation relationship.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22056号 / 工博第4637号 / 新制||工||1723(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 山田 忠史, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

De nombreuses incertitudes liées aux mécanismes d'interaction entre les blocs rocheux et le versant naturel lors des chutes de blocs persistent ; la prévision de tels événements reste de ce fait encore incertaine. Néanmoins, les outils numériques et la puissance de calcul ne cessent d'évoluer. Si, auparavant, les calculs trajectographiques étaient restreints à des géométries simplifiées et à des mouvements balistiques en deux dimensions, il devient désormais possible d'y intégrer des raffinements tels que la forme complexe des blocs, des modèles numériques tridimensionnels de terrain d’une grande définition ou une prise en compte fine des mécanismes dissipatifs au niveau du point d'impact entre le bloc et le versant de propagation.L’objectif principal de la thèse est d’analyser, avec un code numérique discret en trois dimensions, l’influence des paramètres de forme et d’interaction sur la nature du rebond dans un contexte d’ingénierie. Nous présentons tout d’abord une méthodologie d'identification et d'étude de sensibilité des paramètres de contact, élaborée et validée à partir d’expérimentations de laboratoire. Cette méthodologie a été appliquée par la suite à deux expérimentations de chute de blocs menées sur sites réels à moyenne et à grande échelle.L’étude réalisée à moyenne échelle a permis de confronter le modèle numérique à des données obtenues lors d'une campagne expérimentale sur voies ferroviaires commanditée par la SNCF et menée en collaboration avec IRSTEA. Les analyses qui ont été réalisées ont porté sur les vitesses d’impact des blocs avec le ballast et les distances de propagation.L’étude menée à grande échelle s’appuie sur plusieurs séries de lâchés de blocs réalisées sur le site expérimental de la carrière d'Authume dans le cadre d’un Benchmark proposé dans le cadre du Projet National C2ROP. L’objectif principal du Benchmark est de tester et de comparer entre eux des logiciels trajectographiques, des codes de calculs numériques et les pratiques d’ingénierie pour en définir la pertinence et les domaines de validité. Dans le cadre de la thèse, ce travail a été conduit en plusieurs phases (à l’aveugle puis avec des données partielles mesurées lors de la campagne d'essais) et nous présentons l'évolution de ces analyses à l'issue de chacune des phases. L’étude a porté principalement sur les vitesses, les hauteurs et les énergies de passage des blocs en certains points du profil de propagation, ainsi que sur les positions d’arrêt des blocs. Une étude sur l'influence de la forme des blocs sur les distances de propagations est également présentée.Enfin, un Benchmark interne réalisé au sein de l'entreprise IMSRN montre l’importance, sur les analyses, de l'expertise de l'opérateur, et des conséquences de l'utilisation de différents outils trajectographiques (en 2D et en 3D). Ces travaux mettent en lumière les problématiques actuelles auxquelles sont souvent confrontés les bureaux d'études et les ingénieurs en charge des études de risques. / Numerous uncertainties related to the machanical interaction between rock boulders and the natural slope during block falls persist; and the forecast of such events is therefore still uncertain. Nevertheless, digital tools and computing power are constantly evolving. Previously, trajectory calculations were restricted to simplified geometries and two-dimensional ballistic movements, but it is now possible to incorporate refinements such as the complex shape of the blocks, three-dimensional numerical models of terrain of large sizes, as well as a better accounting of the dissipative mechanisms at the point of impact between the block and the run-out slope.The main objective of this work is to analyze, with a discrete elements code in three dimensions, the influence of the shape and interaction parameters on the nature of the rebound in an engineering context. We first present a methodology for identifying and studying the sensitivity of contact parameters, developed and validated from laboratory experiments. This methodology was subsequently applied to two block fall experiments conducted on medium and large real-scale scenarios.The study conducted on a medium scale allowed the numerical model to be compared with data obtained during an experimental rockfall tests campaign commissioned by the SNCF and conducted in collaboration with IRSTEA in a railway. The analyzes that were carried out mainly focused on the impact velocities of the blocks with ballast and propagation distances.The large-scale study is based on a series of block releases performed at the experimental site (Authume quarry, France) as part of a Benchmark proposed inside the National Project C2ROP. The mainly goal of this Benchmark is to access and compare trajectory softwares, numerical computation codes and engineering practices to define their relevance and validity domains. As part of the thesis, this work was conducted in several phases (blind phase and then conducted taking in account partial data measured during the experimental tests) and we present the evolution of these analyzes at the end of each one of these phases. The study focused on the velocities, heights and energies of the blocks at certain points of the propagation profile, as well as on the stopping positions of the blocks. The influence of block shapes on run-out distances is also presented.Lastly, an internal Benchmark performed within the IMSRN company shows the importance, on the analyzes, of the expertise of the operator, and the consequences derived from the application of different trajectography tools (in 2D and in 3D). This work highlights the current issues that are often faced by engineering offices and engineers in charge of risk quantification.

Adam Emmer: Dynamic of evolution and hazardousness of lakes in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) Abstract: High mountain environment of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) is undergoing prespicious (goe)environmantal changes such as glacier retreat and associated formation and evolution of lakes. Glacial lakes may represent a threat for the society in case of sudden release of (part of) retained water ("glacial lake outburst flood"; GLOF). Reliable identification of hazardous lakes is a key persumption of effective GLOF risk management. The fundamental part of this thesis lies in creation of new method for assessing susceptibility of lakes to outburst floods, reflecting regional specifics of these events in the study area (preconditions, causes and mechanisms) and unsuitability of existing approaches revealed in previous research. Newly created method take into account five scenarios of GLOFs, which are assessed separately, using the combination of decision trees allowing integration of qualitative and quantitative characteristics (an overall number of 17 characteristics of the dam, lake and lake surrounding enter the assessment procedure). Thus, identification of specific causes and mechanisms is enabled. The method was verified by assessing susceptibility of 20 lakes, of which 10 produced GLOFs in past (pre-flood...

The ambition of this thesis is to fulfill two aims. The first aim is theory development, by presenting a theoretical framework where climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) are combined. The second aim is empirical, where the theoretical framework is used to analyze an example of DRR with an ambition to include CCA. An integrated approach is beneficial for the achievement of sustainable development and for strengthening resilience to hazards (Schipper 2009; Mitchell et al 2010). However, the two fields largely operate in separate which can cause reversed development outcomes and hamper the overall objectives of both DRR and CCA. The ambition of this thesis is hence to investigate to what extent the approach is used within humanitarian aid organizations today, with a specific focus on the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The method used is a qualitative content analysis of the “Integrated Flood Resilience Programme” in Bangladesh (IFRP) conducted by the IFRC. The main finding of the study suggests a surprising progress of including CCA and climate change as components within DRR. However, there are still core aspects of an integrated approach missing in the project. For instance, there is no inclusion of an environmental risk assessment or alignment with climate frameworks, except for parts of the Sustainable Development Goals. Moreover, the efforts associated with CCA are perceived unspecific in comparison to other parts of the project. This thesis therefore reaffirms some of the conclusions made by other scholars (e.g. Mitchell et al 2010; Schipper 2009: Thomalla et al 2006; Hammond 2017), implying that DRR and CCA still mostly operate separately.

Tesis por compendio / Flood risk reduction is a global challenge. Society demands higher safety and security levels, including those actions related to flood defence infrastructure protection against natural hazards and manmade threats. Dams and levees, among other flood defence infrastructures, are critical hydraulic infrastructures, aiming at reducing the likelihood that people and property will get flooded, but whose failure would result in consequences for the community downstream, including not only economic damages but also loss of life. There is always a probability associated with infrastructure failure, although in general it might be very low. The purpose of the PhD research, with title "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", here presented is to propose a framework to enhance integrative flood risk management from a multi-hazard perspective (pluvial flooding, river flooding, dam and levee failure, including man-made threats), addressing current needs for decision making on flood risk reduction and analyzing the complexity of multiple hazards and systems which include multiple components. The thesis is structured in three main parts, including: (i) Part I, a methodology aiming at providing a common framework for identifying and characterizing flood risk due to pluvial flooding, river flooding and dam failure, and incorporate information on loads, system response and consequences into risk models to analyse societal and economic flood risk, (ii) Part II, an approach for quantifying and analyzing risk for complex dam-levee systems, to incorporate information from levee failure into risk models based on the aforementioned methodology, and to analyse societal and economic flood risk, including the potential failure of these infrastructures, and (iii) Part III, a screening tool to characterize the impact of human induced threats on risk due to dam failure or mission disruption. Results from this research have proven that the use of risk models provides a logic and mathematically rigorous framework for compiling information for flood risk characterization and analysis from different natural hazards and flood defence performance. The proposed framework in this thesis and applications aimed at encouraging key actors on flood risk management (infrastructure managers, authorities, emergency action planners, etc.) on the use of QRA, and at demonstrating to what extent QRA can usefully contribute to better understanding risk drivers and inform decisions on how to act to efficiently reduce flood risk. / La reducción del riesgo de inundación es un reto global. La sociedad actual demanda cada vez mayores niveles de seguridad, incluyendo la consecución de acciones vinculadas a la protección de las infraestructuras de defensa frente a inundaciones ante amenazas naturales y antrópicas. Presas y diques, entre otras obras de defensa, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo objetivo es reducir la probabilidad de inundación. Sin embargo, su fallo puede resultar en consecuencias para la comunidad situada aguas abajo, incluyendo no sólo daños económicos sino también pérdida potencial de vidas. Siempre existe una cierta probabilidad asociada al fallo de estas infraestructuras, aunque en general muy baja. El objetivo de la investigación llevada a cabo en la presente tesis doctoral, con título "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", es proporcionar un marco que fomente la gestión integral del riesgo de inundación desde una perspectiva multi-amenaza, considerando las necesidades actuales en la toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de inundación y analizando la complejidad de sistemas con múltiples componentes, afectados por diferentes amenazas. La tesis se estructura en tres partes principales, incluyendo: (a) Parte I, una metodología para proporcionar un marco común para la identificación y caracterización del riesgo de inundación por inundación pluvial, fluvial y fallo de presas, incorporando información sobre solicitaciones, respuesta del sistema y consecuencias en modelos de riesgo que permiten analizar y evaluar el riesgo social y económico por inundación, (b) Parte II, un método para la cuantificación y análisis del riesgo en sistemas complejos presa-dique, con el objetivo de incorporar información referente al fallo de diques en la metodología propuesta en la Parte I, y analizar el riesgo social y económico por inundación incluyendo el fallo de varias infraestructuras de defensa, y (c) Parte III, una herramienta de cribado que permite caracterizar el impacto de amenazas de origen antrópico en el riesgo asociado al fallo de presas. Los resultados de esta investigación demuestran que el uso de modelos de riesgo proporciona un marco lógico y matemáticamente riguroso para la consideración de toda la información necesaria para la adecuada caracterización y análisis del riesgo de inundación por amenazas naturales y por fallo o mal funcionamiento de obras de defensa. El marco metodológico propuesto y las aplicaciones descritas en esta tesis tienen como objetivo impulsar la aplicación del análisis de riesgo por parte de los actores clave en la gestión del riesgo de inundación (gestores de infraestructuras, autoridades locales, gestores de emergencias, etc.) y demostrar en qué medida estos análisis pueden contribuir a alcanzar un mejor conocimiento de los factores clave que componen el riesgo e informar en la toma de decisiones hacia una reducción del riesgo más eficiente. / La reducció del risc d'inundació és un repte global. La societat actual demana majors nivells de seguretat, incloent-hi la realització d'accions vinculades a la protecció de les infraestructures de defensa enfront del risc d'inundacions afectades per amenaces naturals i antròpiques. Preses i dics fluvials, entre altres obres de defensa, són infraestructures crítiques i tenen l'objectiu de reduir la probabilitat d'inundació però el seu trencament pot resultar en conseqüències en, danys econòmics i també pèrdua potencial de vides. Sempre hi ha una certa probabilitat vinculada al trencament d'aquestes infraestructures, encara que en general molt baixa. L'objectiu de la investigació duta a terme en aquesta tesi doctoral, amb títol "Integrated flood risk management: towards a risk-informed decision making incorporating natural and human-induced hazards", és proporcionar un marc per a fomentar la gestió integral del risc d'inundació des d'una perspectiva multi-amenaça, tenint en compte les necessitats actuals per prendre decisions per a la gestió del risc d'inundació i analitzant sistemes complexes amb múltiples components i afectats per diferents amenaces. La tesi s'estructura en tres parts principals: (a) Part I, una metodologia proposada per a proporcionar un marc comú per a la identificació i caracterització del risc d'inundació per inundació pluvial, fluvial i trencament de preses, incorporant informació de sol¿licitacions, resposta del sistema i conseqüències en models de risc que permeten analitzar el risc social i econòmic per inundació, (b) Part II, un mètode per a la quantificació i anàlisi del risc en sistemes complexes, amb l'objectiu d'incorporar informació referent al trencament de dics fluvials en la metodologia descrita en la Part I, i analitzar el risc social i econòmic pel trencament de diverses infraestructures de defensa, i (c) Part III, una ferramenta de pre-anàlisi per a caracteritzar l'impacte d'amenaces de origen antròpic en el risc associat al trencament de preses. Els resultats de la investigació demostren l'utilitat de l'aplicació de models de risc, proporcionant un marc lògic i matemàticament rigorós per a la consideració de tota la informació necessària per a l'adequada caracterització i anàlisi del risc d'inundació per amenaces naturals i per trencament d'obres de defensa. El marc metodològic i les aplicacions derivades d'aquesta tesi tenen com a objectiu impulsar l'aplicació d'anàlisi de risc quantitatius per part dels actors vinculats a la gestió del risc d'inundació (gestors d'infraestructures, autoritats locals, gestors d'emergències, etc.) i demostrar que poden contribuir a disposar d'un millor coneixement dels factors clau que componen el risc, i per a informar les decisions necessàries per a una reducció del risc més eficient. / Castillo Rodríguez, JT. (2017). INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: TOWARDS A RISK-INFORMED DECISION MAKING INCORPORATING NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/82305 / TESIS / Compendio

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第21092号 / 工博第4456号 / 新制||工||1692(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 Cruz Ana Maria , 教授 小林 潔司, 准教授 横松 宗太 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM