Modern engineering structures should ensure an economic design, construction and operation of structures in compliance with the required safety for persons and the environment. In order to achieve this aim, all contingencies and associated consequences that may possibly occur throughout the life cycle of the considered structure have to be taken into account. Today, the development is often based on decision theory, methods of structural reliability and the modeling of consequences. Failure consequences are one of the significant issues that determine optimal structural reliability. In particular, consequences associated with the failure of structures are of interest, as they may lead to significant indirect consequences, also called follow-up consequences. However, apart from determining safety levels based on failure consequences, it is also crucially important to have effective models for stress forces and maintenance planning ... (aus dem Vorwort)

<p><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3"> <p>The objective of the study was to find out whether the decentralisation of responsibulities for social economics development facilitated the management of disaster risk during the 2007 floods in Mozambique. the specific aims of the study were to : analyse <font face="Cambria" size="3"><font face="Cambria" size="3">and discuss national policies for decentralisation and their significance for DRM.&nbsp / Investigate which responsibilities, human and financial resources were available to local governments&nbsp / for the planning, implemantations and monitoring of DRM activities. Identify&nbsp / mechanisms institutions and activities for DRM and&nbsp / find out whether they provided to be effective. Explore how concerned&nbsp / communities participated in DRM activitiesto reduce&nbsp / their vulnerability to disaster risk.&nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / &nbsp / </font></font><font face="SymbolMT" size="3"><font face="SymbolMT" size="3"> <p>&nbsp / </p> </font></font>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> <p>&nbsp / </p> </font></font></font></font></font></font></p> <p>&nbsp / </p>

This thesis analyses the glacier fluctuations in New Zealand since late Pliocen until today (2017) and evaluates GLOFs (Glacier Lake Outburst Floods) hazards from all proglacial lakes of New Zealand. Background research of a wide range of scientific sources was used to describe New Zealand glacier fluctuations during the last ~2.6 Ma, uncover local climatic and tectonic specifics, describe uneven behaviour of different glacier types and summarise current knowledge about climatological forcings to New Zealand glaciers. Compared to the timing of glaciations in the Norther Hemisphere, an earlier onset of LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) and LIA (Little Ice Age) was recorded in New Zealand. A dramatic glacier advance of short- to medium-response time glaciers was recorded between 1983 and 1999. This advance was caused by changes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns around New Zealand. A detailed study of the past events revealed that really few events were recorded in New Zealand history. While englacial outburst floods are relatively common from Franz Josef Glacier, no moraine dam rupture and only two GLOFs from a proglacial lake were recorded in New Zealand history. Inventory of proglacial lakes of New Zealand completed from remote sensing data was done to further evaluate the hazards of GLOFs. 25...

In this thesis, I conduct a global event-data study investigating the relationship between exposure to natural hazards and climate change adaptation. Exposure to natural hazards has previously been linked to actions aimed at reducing risks related to future natural hazards. With climate change, and predicted increase in hazard frequency and intensity, a feasible approach to risk mitigation is climate change adaptation, which can thus be considered a disaster risk reduction strategy. I investigate the effects of disaster frequency and severity on the amount of climate change adaptation actions taken on a subnational level of government, using disaster data from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) and data on adaptation actions from CDP. Disaster severity is operationalised in three separate ways to distinguish between different kinds of disaster impacts: in terms of (1) economic damage, (2) how many are affected, and (3) fatalities. I hypothesise that all independent variables are positively related to climate change adaptation, and test the hypotheses using OLS regression. The result depicts a positive correlation between the number of disasters experienced and adaptation actions. I do not see a positive relationship between climate change adaptation actions and the two impact variables total affected and total fatalities. The relationship between economic damages and adaptation actions indicates that economic damages could have different impacts depending on the level of economic development in a country. This study contributes to the integration of the two research fields climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction by studying climate change adaptation as a form of disaster risk reduction, and deepening the knowledge of what can drive adaptation. Finally, this study contributes by showing that the level of economic development could be an important aspect of the exposure-adaptation relationship.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22056号 / 工博第4637号 / 新制||工||1723(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 CRUZ Ana Maria , 教授 山田 忠史, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

De nombreuses incertitudes liées aux mécanismes d'interaction entre les blocs rocheux et le versant naturel lors des chutes de blocs persistent ; la prévision de tels événements reste de ce fait encore incertaine. Néanmoins, les outils numériques et la puissance de calcul ne cessent d'évoluer. Si, auparavant, les calculs trajectographiques étaient restreints à des géométries simplifiées et à des mouvements balistiques en deux dimensions, il devient désormais possible d'y intégrer des raffinements tels que la forme complexe des blocs, des modèles numériques tridimensionnels de terrain d’une grande définition ou une prise en compte fine des mécanismes dissipatifs au niveau du point d'impact entre le bloc et le versant de propagation.L’objectif principal de la thèse est d’analyser, avec un code numérique discret en trois dimensions, l’influence des paramètres de forme et d’interaction sur la nature du rebond dans un contexte d’ingénierie. Nous présentons tout d’abord une méthodologie d'identification et d'étude de sensibilité des paramètres de contact, élaborée et validée à partir d’expérimentations de laboratoire. Cette méthodologie a été appliquée par la suite à deux expérimentations de chute de blocs menées sur sites réels à moyenne et à grande échelle.L’étude réalisée à moyenne échelle a permis de confronter le modèle numérique à des données obtenues lors d'une campagne expérimentale sur voies ferroviaires commanditée par la SNCF et menée en collaboration avec IRSTEA. Les analyses qui ont été réalisées ont porté sur les vitesses d’impact des blocs avec le ballast et les distances de propagation.L’étude menée à grande échelle s’appuie sur plusieurs séries de lâchés de blocs réalisées sur le site expérimental de la carrière d'Authume dans le cadre d’un Benchmark proposé dans le cadre du Projet National C2ROP. L’objectif principal du Benchmark est de tester et de comparer entre eux des logiciels trajectographiques, des codes de calculs numériques et les pratiques d’ingénierie pour en définir la pertinence et les domaines de validité. Dans le cadre de la thèse, ce travail a été conduit en plusieurs phases (à l’aveugle puis avec des données partielles mesurées lors de la campagne d'essais) et nous présentons l'évolution de ces analyses à l'issue de chacune des phases. L’étude a porté principalement sur les vitesses, les hauteurs et les énergies de passage des blocs en certains points du profil de propagation, ainsi que sur les positions d’arrêt des blocs. Une étude sur l'influence de la forme des blocs sur les distances de propagations est également présentée.Enfin, un Benchmark interne réalisé au sein de l'entreprise IMSRN montre l’importance, sur les analyses, de l'expertise de l'opérateur, et des conséquences de l'utilisation de différents outils trajectographiques (en 2D et en 3D). Ces travaux mettent en lumière les problématiques actuelles auxquelles sont souvent confrontés les bureaux d'études et les ingénieurs en charge des études de risques. / Numerous uncertainties related to the machanical interaction between rock boulders and the natural slope during block falls persist; and the forecast of such events is therefore still uncertain. Nevertheless, digital tools and computing power are constantly evolving. Previously, trajectory calculations were restricted to simplified geometries and two-dimensional ballistic movements, but it is now possible to incorporate refinements such as the complex shape of the blocks, three-dimensional numerical models of terrain of large sizes, as well as a better accounting of the dissipative mechanisms at the point of impact between the block and the run-out slope.The main objective of this work is to analyze, with a discrete elements code in three dimensions, the influence of the shape and interaction parameters on the nature of the rebound in an engineering context. We first present a methodology for identifying and studying the sensitivity of contact parameters, developed and validated from laboratory experiments. This methodology was subsequently applied to two block fall experiments conducted on medium and large real-scale scenarios.The study conducted on a medium scale allowed the numerical model to be compared with data obtained during an experimental rockfall tests campaign commissioned by the SNCF and conducted in collaboration with IRSTEA in a railway. The analyzes that were carried out mainly focused on the impact velocities of the blocks with ballast and propagation distances.The large-scale study is based on a series of block releases performed at the experimental site (Authume quarry, France) as part of a Benchmark proposed inside the National Project C2ROP. The mainly goal of this Benchmark is to access and compare trajectory softwares, numerical computation codes and engineering practices to define their relevance and validity domains. As part of the thesis, this work was conducted in several phases (blind phase and then conducted taking in account partial data measured during the experimental tests) and we present the evolution of these analyzes at the end of each one of these phases. The study focused on the velocities, heights and energies of the blocks at certain points of the propagation profile, as well as on the stopping positions of the blocks. The influence of block shapes on run-out distances is also presented.Lastly, an internal Benchmark performed within the IMSRN company shows the importance, on the analyzes, of the expertise of the operator, and the consequences derived from the application of different trajectography tools (in 2D and in 3D). This work highlights the current issues that are often faced by engineering offices and engineers in charge of risk quantification.

Adam Emmer: Dynamic of evolution and hazardousness of lakes in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) Abstract: High mountain environment of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) is undergoing prespicious (goe)environmantal changes such as glacier retreat and associated formation and evolution of lakes. Glacial lakes may represent a threat for the society in case of sudden release of (part of) retained water ("glacial lake outburst flood"; GLOF). Reliable identification of hazardous lakes is a key persumption of effective GLOF risk management. The fundamental part of this thesis lies in creation of new method for assessing susceptibility of lakes to outburst floods, reflecting regional specifics of these events in the study area (preconditions, causes and mechanisms) and unsuitability of existing approaches revealed in previous research. Newly created method take into account five scenarios of GLOFs, which are assessed separately, using the combination of decision trees allowing integration of qualitative and quantitative characteristics (an overall number of 17 characteristics of the dam, lake and lake surrounding enter the assessment procedure). Thus, identification of specific causes and mechanisms is enabled. The method was verified by assessing susceptibility of 20 lakes, of which 10 produced GLOFs in past (pre-flood...

The ambition of this thesis is to fulfill two aims. The first aim is theory development, by presenting a theoretical framework where climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) are combined. The second aim is empirical, where the theoretical framework is used to analyze an example of DRR with an ambition to include CCA. An integrated approach is beneficial for the achievement of sustainable development and for strengthening resilience to hazards (Schipper 2009; Mitchell et al 2010). However, the two fields largely operate in separate which can cause reversed development outcomes and hamper the overall objectives of both DRR and CCA. The ambition of this thesis is hence to investigate to what extent the approach is used within humanitarian aid organizations today, with a specific focus on the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The method used is a qualitative content analysis of the “Integrated Flood Resilience Programme” in Bangladesh (IFRP) conducted by the IFRC. The main finding of the study suggests a surprising progress of including CCA and climate change as components within DRR. However, there are still core aspects of an integrated approach missing in the project. For instance, there is no inclusion of an environmental risk assessment or alignment with climate frameworks, except for parts of the Sustainable Development Goals. Moreover, the efforts associated with CCA are perceived unspecific in comparison to other parts of the project. This thesis therefore reaffirms some of the conclusions made by other scholars (e.g. Mitchell et al 2010; Schipper 2009: Thomalla et al 2006; Hammond 2017), implying that DRR and CCA still mostly operate separately.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第21092号 / 工博第4456号 / 新制||工||1692(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 Cruz Ana Maria , 教授 小林 潔司, 准教授 横松 宗太 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM

Societal awareness and general understanding of the diversity of geosciences environments and phenomena across regions is vital. The primary method to obtain information about geosciences is through mass media. However, there is little coverage of geosciences information and the public may not trust it because of low geosciences awareness. Geosciences are rarely included as part of K-12 curricula and are optional at the collegiate level, contributing to the public deficiency regarding awareness and understanding of the geosciences. This research study investigated methods utilizing outdoor resources in an effort to increase region-specific understanding and awareness of geosciences among diverse groups. A Mississippi K-12 educator professional development session and two middle-high schools were assessed for impact on understanding and interest related to geosciences. All participants utilized outdoor resources to model erosional processes and potential natural hazard events. Both participating schools have high underrepresented minority populations. Pre assessment evaluated participant awareness of Mississippi natural hazards. Teachers and student participants all demonstrated a low awareness of erosion processes specific to the region. Teachers completed erosion models indoors or outdoors, with indoor participants having a significant increase in earth science interest. All student participants completed the erosion model outside, with pre-post erosion comprehension resulting in significant increases for both the middle and high schools. The middle school had significant gains in earth science interest while the high school had a significant decrease regarding careers in geosciences. Virtual field guides developed by online graduate students demonstrating personal understanding of broad geosciences concepts in their local region were evaluated pre-post for impact on geosciences awareness, understanding, and confidence. Awareness factors included geographical community size and locations included in the field guide to demonstrate participant understanding. Significant increases in awareness regarding geoscience resources, including those outdoors, occurred. Significant increases also occurred in confidence utilizing geosciences resources and communicating about geosciences. The majority agreed that the experience of creating the field guide enhanced understanding of geosciences and interest in outdoor activities. Geographical size of participants’ residential communities was significantly related to awareness of regional locations, with urban residents including fewer outdoor locations in the field guide.