The author explicitly specifies a New Keynesian style model embodying a financial constraint on the availability of equity and a financial market imperfection with regard to the existence of state-contingent assets based upon the published papers of Greenwald and Stiglitz (1988, 1990, and 1993). Using computer based numerical simulation, the author validates the three unproven Propositions found in the Greenwald and Stiglitz 1993 article with regard to the model's comparative static behaviour. Through the inclusion of a parameter for technology into the production function, the author shows that observations made by Greenwald and Stiglitz with regard to the effect of equity infusions is subject to qualification. Investigation of the model's inter-temporal behaviour reveals that the claims made by Greenwald and Stiglitz with regard to multiple periodicity are again subject to many qualifications. Linearization around the steady-state equilibrium as suggested by Greenwald and Stiglitz is shown to offer limited insight because of the implied non-linearity of the model's first order difference equation. Calibrated numerical simulation of the nonlinear difference equation reveals the potential for both single and multiple periodicity, period doubling bifurcations, and chaotic trajectories displaying sensitivity to initial conditions. In addition it was shown that the model's implied random attractor was key to understanding its inter-temporal behavior. In the Greenwald and Stiglitz articles the existence of derivative markets such as futures or options to manage risk are assumed away. The author, in order to investigate the effects of futures or options markets upon business cycles, modifies the explicitly specified model to include the use of state-contingent assets. Introducing the use of derivative financial products to manage risk, using numerical simulation, produces the surprising result that in the aggregate they may lead to slightly greater output instability. In addition to the model's structure, several intuitive reasons for these results are discussed in depth. The Greenwald and Stiglitz model also assumed that the cost of capital was not risk adjusted. The author modifies the explicitly specified model and using numerical simulation shows that like other unrealistic assumptions concerning dividend distribution, leads to alternative laws of motion. The research is concluded with discussion of possible policy and regulatory implications.

This dissertation modifies the model of Yang and Ng (1995) to investigate the condition of the emergence of the firm from a specialized exchange economy. It is assumed in this dissertation that there are fixed costs involved in the operation of a firm. After taking into account of this factor, I re-examine its effects on the division of labor and the structure of firm following Yang and Ng¡¦s framework. The model adopts an inframarginal framework to analyze the subject, in which a firm demonstrates diminishing returns, while both the final labor input and the intermediate labor input demonstrates increasing returns defined upon individuals. However, it is assumed that only the final labor input has the economies of specialization. It is argued in this dissertation that the existence of fixed learning costs may stimulate the economy to undergo structural changes if suitable conditions are met, which are largely related to relative market efficiency between markets.

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From the 1970s onwards, it is argued that central banks should be independent from politicians since the latter have an interest in seeking populist interventions to the conduct of the monetary policy. Additionally, it is often maintained that the sole aim of a central bank should be to seek price stability. Despite the seemingly neutral and objective tone of these arguments, central bank independence can find its meaning as a part of Neoliberalism, which restructured the economic administration of the state. The main objective of this thesis is to analyse the notion of central bank independence and the case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in a multidisciplinary manner, in order to reveal its political and administrative implications.

Cette thèse prend pour objet les transformations de l’analyse macroéconomique aux États-Unis durant les années 1970 tout en questionnant la manière d’étudier et d’analyser ces transformations. Du point de vue de l’histoire des faits, la période semble marquer une rupture par rapport à la relative stabilité économique de l’après-guerre. Cette période d’instabilité économique, qu’on nomme stagflation, fait écho à l’instabilité de la théorie macroéconomique aux États-Unis. Le consensus de l’époque, considéré comme « keynésien », se retrouve attaqué par les économistes dits « monétaristes » et « nouveaux classiques ». Le dernier des groupes cités est celui des « révolutionnaires », celui dont on considère qu’il a changé radicalement la discipline. Le but de ma thèse est d’étudier l’influence des nouveaux classiques sur la macroéconomie dans les années 1970 en mobilisant un appareil historiographique qui met au cœur de l’étude le rôle joué par la stagflation, et de confronter les résultats de cette étude avec l’histoire « conventionnelle » de la macroéconomie. La thèse s’articule autour de quatre articles indépendants les uns des autres. Le premier chapitre propose une comparaison entre les méthodologies de Lucas et Sargent, et montre que le second tente de donner un caractère plus réaliste aux modèles de la Nouvelle Économie Classique, en utilisant les anticipations rationnelles pour décrire différents phénomènes économiques. Le second chapitre prend pour objet la confrontation entre Lucas et Sargent d’un côté, et les défenseurs des modèles macroéconométriques structurels de l’autre. Le chapitre 3 étudie l’évolution des travaux de Robert Gordon sur l’inflation dans les années 1970 et documente la manière dont celui-ci adopte petit à petit l’hypothèse de taux de chômage naturel. Le chapitre 4 enfin s’intéresse aux débats empiriques au début des années 1980, autour de la crise de Lucas. / This thesis focuses on the transformations of macroeconomics in the United States during the 1970s, while questioning the way to study and to analyze these transformations. From the point of view of economic history, the period seems to mark a break with the relative stability post World War II years. This period of economic stability, that one calls “stagflation”, echoes the instability of U.S. macroeconomic theory. The consensus of the time, regarded as “Keynesian”, is attacked by economists labeled as “Monetarist” and “New Classical”. The last group is the one of “revolutionaries”, regarding as having radically transformed the discipline, as the Copernican revolution overthrown the geocentric representation of the universe. My goal in the thesis is to study the influence of New Classical economists on macroeconomics in the 1970s, by appealing to an historiographical framework which outs at the heart the role played by stagflation, and by confronting the results of this work to the standard narrative. This thesis is built around four articles, independent from one another. The first chapter proposes a comparison between the methodologies of Lucas and Sargent, and shows how the latter intend to give a more realistic character to the new classical economy models, by using rational expectations to describe different economic phenomena. The second chapter takes interest in the confrontation between Lucas and Sargent on one side, and the defenders of structural econometric models on the other. The third chapter studies the evolution in the works of Robert Gordon on inflation in the 1970s, and documents the way he gradually adopts the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. Finally, the chapter four is interested in the empirical debates in the early 1980s, about the Lucas critique.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T20:20:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alberio Neves Filho.pdf: 1997150 bytes, checksum: 566d8ff8b3c8f13ffb17e050d94da052 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-28 / Following doctoral thesis developed in terms of qualification project of post-graduate studies program in social sciences from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. The goal of the thesis presented here is to examine the political assumptions expressed in macroeconomic models of the International Monetary Fund adjustment and the political conditions necessary for its implementation, in the period 1980-2008. And justifications to develop a work of this nature were provided both by the recognized critical social and economic effects, as the current theoretical controversies existing on the pertinence of such programs and the reasons that led the IMF to promote macroeconomic policy, contained therein. The hypothesis explored here is that macroeconomic adjustment programmes developed and deployed by the IMF, indifferently applied in the various national economies and after the period of the so-called debt crisis, sought to make and was a result of complying with regulatory rules and symbolic imposed at the time and throughout the period in which gives the ownership of real resources in the Central States, by class of bankers. From this point of view, this change produced a rearrangement within the economic and political theories in use by the Fund, implying several attempts on your part, to the economic reconstruction of the most basic postulates, which formed the action parameter to the institution, in the long period from after World War II. The theoretical-methodological aspects are developed here, first, use of the postulates laid by M. DOBB on the SCHUMPETER s contribution towards the understanding of macroeconomic models as a political instrument design and ideological. Second, it uses the reading confirms M. BLAUG in the same sense that economic analysis models, hide, without rejecting their premises heuristics. It is used also of a long tradition, revived by K. MARX and not closed in this, which affirms the relevance of politics as the vehicle through which theoretical models, concepts and assumptions are thought of as fed by historical contexts and, at the same time will be part of the consolidation symbolic or not, these same contexts. When such theoretical-methodological aspects are applied to that working hypothesis to explain the study results and understand that the adjustment programmes of the International Monetary Fund and the evidence of their policies have had significant effects, to confirm it, about the current trend financialisation of the world capitalism. If correct, the exposed, lighten and contribute to the understanding of these issues were addressed in the body of work now submitted / Segue Tese de Doutorado desenvolvido nos termos do projeto de qualificação do Programa de Estudos Pósgraduados em Ciências Sociais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. O objetivo da tese ora apresentada é o de examinar os pressupostos políticos expressos nos modelos macroeconômicos de ajuste do Fundo Monetário Internacional e as condições políticas necessárias à sua efetivação, no período de 1980-2008. E as justificativas para desenvolver um trabalho dessa natureza foram fornecidas tanto pelos reconhecidos efeitos críticos, sociais e econômicos, provenientes da incorporação desses programas pelas economias nacionais, quanto pelas atuais controvérsias teóricas existentes sobre a pertinência desses programas e as razões que levaram o Fundo Monetário a promover a política macroeconômica, neles contidos. A hipótese aqui trabalhada é que os programas macroeconômicos de ajuste desenvolvidos e implantados pelo FMI, indiferentemente aplicado nas diversas economias nacionais e após o período da chamada crise da dívida, buscou viabilizar e foi resultado do atendimento às regras normativas e simbólicas instituídas no momento e ao longo do período no qual se dá a apropriação dos recursos reais nos Estados Centrais, pela classe dos banqueiros. E esta apropriação dos recursos reais por essa classe significou, por seu lado, o rompimento da coalização política do pós-guerra, onde o Estado de Bem-Estar Social tomou corpo, induzindo a uma mudança histórica genuína para a efetivação de um novo tempo histórico. Desse ponto de vista, essa mudança produziu um rearranjo no interior das teorias políticas e econômicas em uso pelo Fundo, implicando em diversas tentativas, de sua parte, para a reconstrução dos postulados econômicos os mais básicos, os quais serviram de parâmetro de ação para a instituição, no longo período do após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Ocorre que, nesse momento no qual aparentava sua maior vitalidade com intervenções nas diversas economias nacionais, assistiu-se, isso sim, a uma crise de legitimidade em sua ação e em seus postulados teóricos, induzida por aquelas mudanças mais gerais, que travaram sua melhor atuação. Assim, um dos focos da tese será o de demonstrar, justamente, como essas mudanças se deram no FMI. Os aspectos teórico-metodológicos aqui desenvolvidos fazem uso, primeiro, das postulações lançadas por M. DOBB acerca da contribuição de J. SCHUMPETER no sentido da compreensão dos modelos macroeconômicos como uma concepção e instrumento de natureza política ideológica. Segundo, utiliza-se da leitura confirmativa de M. BLAUG no mesmo sentido de que os modelos de análise econômica ocultam, sem rejeitar, suas premissas heurísticas. Estas serão trazidas para o interior das concepções e modelos teóricos que balizam os modelos analíticos e operacionais dando suporte para as proposições macro microeconômicas e aparecem, nesses modelos, na forma de uma intromissão de ideologias, valores e interesses políticos, dentro dos programas e das sugestões de políticas econômicas, em geral. Terceiro, utiliza-se de uma larga tradição, reavivada por K. MARX e não encerrada com este, que afirma a pertinência da política como o veículo por onde modelos teóricos, concepções e pressuposições são pensadas como alimentadas pelos contextos históricos e, em simultâneo será parte da consolidação simbólica, ou não, desses mesmos contextos. Quando tais aspectos teórico-metodológicos são aplicados àquela hipótese de trabalho o resultado obtido permitiu explicar e compreender que os programas de ajustes do Fundo Monetário e as evidências de suas políticas surtiram efeitos significativos, ao confirmá-la, sobre a atual tendência financerizada do capitalismo mundial. Mas, ao final, constituindo-se no veículo para a expansão, a partir das economias centrais para as demais economias de industrialização tardia, desses novos interesses da classe dos financistas o FMI teve sua atuação histórica, em seus termos originais, esgotada. Se correto o exposto, conseguiu-se clarear e contribuir no entendimento dessas questões, tratadas no corpo do trabalho ora apresentado

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T14:53:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alberio Neves Filho.pdf: 1997150 bytes, checksum: 566d8ff8b3c8f13ffb17e050d94da052 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-28 / Following doctoral thesis developed in terms of qualification project of post-graduate studies program in social sciences from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. The goal of the thesis presented here is to examine the political assumptions expressed in macroeconomic models of the International Monetary Fund adjustment and the political conditions necessary for its implementation, in the period 1980-2008. And justifications to develop a work of this nature were provided both by the recognized critical social and economic effects, as the current theoretical controversies existing on the pertinence of such programs and the reasons that led the IMF to promote macroeconomic policy, contained therein. The hypothesis explored here is that macroeconomic adjustment programmes developed and deployed by the IMF, indifferently applied in the various national economies and after the period of the so-called debt crisis, sought to make and was a result of complying with regulatory rules and symbolic imposed at the time and throughout the period in which gives the ownership of real resources in the Central States, by class of bankers. From this point of view, this change produced a rearrangement within the economic and political theories in use by the Fund, implying several attempts on your part, to the economic reconstruction of the most basic postulates, which formed the action parameter to the institution, in the long period from after World War II. The theoretical-methodological aspects are developed here, first, use of the postulates laid by M. DOBB on the SCHUMPETER s contribution towards the understanding of macroeconomic models as a political instrument design and ideological. Second, it uses the reading confirms M. BLAUG in the same sense that economic analysis models, hide, without rejecting their premises heuristics. It is used also of a long tradition, revived by K. MARX and not closed in this, which affirms the relevance of politics as the vehicle through which theoretical models, concepts and assumptions are thought of as fed by historical contexts and, at the same time will be part of the consolidation symbolic or not, these same contexts. When such theoretical-methodological aspects are applied to that working hypothesis to explain the study results and understand that the adjustment programmes of the International Monetary Fund and the evidence of their policies have had significant effects, to confirm it, about the current trend financialisation of the world capitalism. If correct, the exposed, lighten and contribute to the understanding of these issues were addressed in the body of work now submitted / Segue Tese de Doutorado desenvolvido nos termos do projeto de qualificação do Programa de Estudos Pósgraduados em Ciências Sociais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. O objetivo da tese ora apresentada é o de examinar os pressupostos políticos expressos nos modelos macroeconômicos de ajuste do Fundo Monetário Internacional e as condições políticas necessárias à sua efetivação, no período de 1980-2008. E as justificativas para desenvolver um trabalho dessa natureza foram fornecidas tanto pelos reconhecidos efeitos críticos, sociais e econômicos, provenientes da incorporação desses programas pelas economias nacionais, quanto pelas atuais controvérsias teóricas existentes sobre a pertinência desses programas e as razões que levaram o Fundo Monetário a promover a política macroeconômica, neles contidos. A hipótese aqui trabalhada é que os programas macroeconômicos de ajuste desenvolvidos e implantados pelo FMI, indiferentemente aplicado nas diversas economias nacionais e após o período da chamada crise da dívida, buscou viabilizar e foi resultado do atendimento às regras normativas e simbólicas instituídas no momento e ao longo do período no qual se dá a apropriação dos recursos reais nos Estados Centrais, pela classe dos banqueiros. E esta apropriação dos recursos reais por essa classe significou, por seu lado, o rompimento da coalização política do pós-guerra, onde o Estado de Bem-Estar Social tomou corpo, induzindo a uma mudança histórica genuína para a efetivação de um novo tempo histórico. Desse ponto de vista, essa mudança produziu um rearranjo no interior das teorias políticas e econômicas em uso pelo Fundo, implicando em diversas tentativas, de sua parte, para a reconstrução dos postulados econômicos os mais básicos, os quais serviram de parâmetro de ação para a instituição, no longo período do após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Ocorre que, nesse momento no qual aparentava sua maior vitalidade com intervenções nas diversas economias nacionais, assistiu-se, isso sim, a uma crise de legitimidade em sua ação e em seus postulados teóricos, induzida por aquelas mudanças mais gerais, que travaram sua melhor atuação. Assim, um dos focos da tese será o de demonstrar, justamente, como essas mudanças se deram no FMI. Os aspectos teórico-metodológicos aqui desenvolvidos fazem uso, primeiro, das postulações lançadas por M. DOBB acerca da contribuição de J. SCHUMPETER no sentido da compreensão dos modelos macroeconômicos como uma concepção e instrumento de natureza política ideológica. Segundo, utiliza-se da leitura confirmativa de M. BLAUG no mesmo sentido de que os modelos de análise econômica ocultam, sem rejeitar, suas premissas heurísticas. Estas serão trazidas para o interior das concepções e modelos teóricos que balizam os modelos analíticos e operacionais dando suporte para as proposições macro microeconômicas e aparecem, nesses modelos, na forma de uma intromissão de ideologias, valores e interesses políticos, dentro dos programas e das sugestões de políticas econômicas, em geral. Terceiro, utiliza-se de uma larga tradição, reavivada por K. MARX e não encerrada com este, que afirma a pertinência da política como o veículo por onde modelos teóricos, concepções e pressuposições são pensadas como alimentadas pelos contextos históricos e, em simultâneo será parte da consolidação simbólica, ou não, desses mesmos contextos. Quando tais aspectos teórico-metodológicos são aplicados àquela hipótese de trabalho o resultado obtido permitiu explicar e compreender que os programas de ajustes do Fundo Monetário e as evidências de suas políticas surtiram efeitos significativos, ao confirmá-la, sobre a atual tendência financerizada do capitalismo mundial. Mas, ao final, constituindo-se no veículo para a expansão, a partir das economias centrais para as demais economias de industrialização tardia, desses novos interesses da classe dos financistas o FMI teve sua atuação histórica, em seus termos originais, esgotada. Se correto o exposto, conseguiu-se clarear e contribuir no entendimento dessas questões, tratadas no corpo do trabalho ora apresentado

Ce travail propose une mise en perspective des pratiques de modélisation macroéconomique,depuis les travaux de Robert E. Lucas dans les années 1970 jusqu’aux contributions actuelles de l’approche dite d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE). Cette mise en perspective permet de caractériser l’essor des modèles DSGE comme un compromis entre conceptions antagonistes de la modélisation : d’une part, celle de l’approche des cycles réels (RBC) et, d’autre part, celle de la nouvelle économie keynésienne. Pour justifier cette opposition, ce travail propose une reconstruction épistémologique de l’histoire récente de la macroéconomie, à savoir une analyse des différents critères qui définissent la validité et la pertinence d’un modèle. L’hypothèse de travail est qu’on peut identifier, pour chaque pratique de modélisation,trois critères méthodologiques fondamentaux : la validité interne (l’adéquation des hypothèses d’un modèle aux concepts aux formalismes d’une théorie), la validité externe(l’adéquation des hypothèses et/ou des résultats d’un modèle au monde réel, et les procédés quantitatifs pour évaluer cette adéquation) et le critère de hiérarchie (la préférence pour la validité interne sur la validité externe, ou vice versa). Cette grille de lecture, inspirée de la littérature sur les modèles en philosophie des sciences, permet d’apporter quatre contributions originales à l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente. (1) Elle permet de concevoir l’essor des modèles DSGE sans faire appel à l’explication proposée par l’historiographie produite par les macroéconomistes eux-mêmes,à savoir l’existence d’un consensus et d’un progrès technique exogène. Contre cette vision de l’histoire en termes de progrès scientifique, nous mettons en avant les oppositions méthodologiques au sein de la macroéconomie et nous illustrons l’interdépendance entre activité théorique et développement des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. (2) La thèse s’attaque au cloisonnement entre histoire des théories macroéconomiques et histoire des méthodes quantitatives. Grâce à sa perspective méthodologique, ce travail permet d’opérer la jonction entre ces deux littératures et de développer les bases d’une vision globale des transformations récentes de la macroéconomie. (3) La relecture méthodologique de l’histoire de la modélisation permet de mettre en évidence comment la condition de validité externe a représenté le principal point de clivage entre différentes conceptions de la modélisation. La question de la validité externe apparaît par ailleurs intrinsèquement liée à la question de l’explication causale des phénomènes, sur laquelle repose largement la justification de la modélisation comme outil d’expertise des politiques économiques. (4) Ce travail aboutit à une caractérisation originale de l’approche DSGE : loin de constituer une «synthèse» ou un consensus, cette approche s’apparente à un compromis, fragilisé par l’antagonisme méthodologique entre ses parties prenantes. / This dissertation provides a history of macroeconomic modeling practices from RobertE. Lucas’s works in the 1970s up to today’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Working from a historical perspective, I suggest that the recent rise of DSGE models should be characterized as a compromise between opposing views of modeling methodology—on the one hand, the real business cycle (RBC) view, on the other hand, the new Keynesian view. In order to justify this claim, my work provides an epistemological reconstruction of the recent history of macroeconomics, building from ananalysis of the criteria defining the validity and the pertinence of a model. My assumption is that recent macroeconomic modeling practices can be described by three distinctive methodological criteria : the internal validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between models’ assumptions and concepts and formalisms of a theory), the external validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between the assumptions and results of a model and the real world, as well as the quantitative methods needed to assess such a consistency) and the hierarchization criterion (which establishes the preference for internal over external validity, or vice versa). This epistemological reconstruction draws primarily from the literature about models in the philosophy of science. My work aims to make four contributions to the history of recent macroeconomics. (1) To understand the rise of DSGE models without referring to the explanation providedby the macroeconomists themselves, who tend to think that macroeconomics evolved through theoretical consensus and exogenous technical progress. By distancing itself fromthis perspective, my work draws attention to the disruptive character of methodological controversies and to the interdependence between theoretical activity and the developmentof statistical and econometric methods. (2) To overcome the existing divide betweenthe history of macroeconomic theories and the history of quantitative methods. Throughits epistemological perspective, my work reconciles these two historiographies and specifiesthe basis for a comprehensive understanding of recent developments in macroeconomics.(3) To put the accent on the external validity condition as the main controversial issue separating different views of macro-modeling methodology. Furthermore, I illustrate how the debate about external validity is closely related to the problem of casual explanation and, finally, to the conditions for providing economic policy evaluation. (4) To characterize the DSGE approach: although DSGE models are often presented as a“synthesis”, or as a “consensus”, they are better described as a shaky compromise between two opposing methodological visions.