Population structure and vital rates of Gulf of Maine (GOM) humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, were studied by a combination of longitudinal data, region-wide surveys and modern mark-recapture statistical methods. Demography and rates of exchange were examined among six GOM areas. Juveniles and females were preferentially encountered in southern GOM habitats, including at the Studds Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS). Multi-state modelling also revealed unequal probabilities of movement between areas that was not explained by inter-area distance, adjacency, whale density or dominant prey type. Aerial surveys and photo-identification data indicated that the population was likely closed to migration between June and September. Otherwise, seasonal trends in population composition were consistent the demographically staggered migration reported in other oceans. Over-wintering occurred,but there was little evidence that a significant number of humpback whales failed to undertake or complete migration each year. Vital rates varied with sex, age and time. Juveniles exhibited lower and more variable survival than adults and so were a potential source of downward bias in “non-calf” survival estimates. Males exhibited higher survival than females and achieved maximal survival at age five, the estimated age at male puberty. By contrast, females did not reach peak survival until the current average age at first birth (8.78 years, s = 2.33). The latter was significantly higher than previous estimates and females that recruited by age seven had a lower likelihood of subsequent survival than those that recruited late. Costs of reproduction persisted into adulthood, with breeders exhibiting lower survival than nonbreeders. Calves born during years of low fecundity exhibited lower survival than those born when fecundity was high, possibly due to lower maternal investment. Costs of reproduction have not previously been described in cetaceans, but are consistent with the risks potentially associated with capital breeding.

This study aimed at complementing studies of sperm whale social and vocal behaviour that were restricted to the Pacific Ocean. The characteristic multi-pulsed structure of sperm whale clicks allows for estimation of whales' size from measurements of the inter-pulse intervals (IPI). I have developed two new automatic methods for IPI estimation from clicks recorded during foraging dives. When compared to other previously developed methods, the newly developed method that averages several clicks' autocorrelation function showed the best performance amongst the automatic methods. Previous studies did not support individual identity advertisement among social unit members as the function for the sperm whale communication signals called codas. I tested within coda type variation for individual specific patterns and found that, while some coda types do not allow for individual discrimination, one did so. This variation suggests that different coda types may have distinct functions. Analysis of social structure in the Azores found that, similar to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, sperm whales form long term social units of about 12 individuals. Unlike the Pacific Ocean, Azorean social units do not form temporary groups with other units, suggesting differences in the costs and benefits of group formation. I argue that these are due to differences in terms of predation pressure and intraspecific competition between the Azores and the Pacific study sites. The variation of coda repertoires in the Atlantic also showed a pattern dissimilar to that previously documented in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. In the North Atlantic, coda repertoire variation is mostly geographic, which is parsimoniously explained by random drift of culturally transmitted coda repertoires. No sympatric vocal clans with distinct dialects were found as has been noted in the Pacific. Drawing upon the differences found in social structure I argue that selection for maximization of differences between units with similar foraging strategies may have led to the Pacific vocal clans. The differences between oceans suggest that sperm whales may adaptively adjust their behaviour according to experienced ecological conditions.

During the Late Pliocene, between 3.3 Ma and 2.6 Ma, tectonic events changed ocean basin interactions against a background of shifting orbital forcing mechanisms and a global cooling trend. A climate system that had been locked in a stable, warm state gradually transformed into one typified by the high-amplitude glacial–interglacial fluctuations characteristic of the later Quaternary. The onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciations in the Late Pliocene marks an important step in this transition, due to the role of feedback mechanisms including ice albedo. A crucial factor in this Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion is the North Atlantic surface ocean circulation. To evaluate how they are linked, a ca. 200-kyr time slab spanning 2782-2520 ka (Late Pliocene–Early Pleistocene) was analyzed at millennial scale resolution from eastern North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 610 and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1313. The causes of the Plio-Pleistocene climatic turnover are compared to that of the well-documented Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 occurring in the Late Pliocene (3.3 Ma). MIS M2, a severe glacial event seen as a precursor to later Quaternary-style glaciations, was investigated from western North Atlantic DSDP Site 603. Utilizing a same-sample methodology, two paleoceanographic proxies were used: (1) dinocyst assemblages, and (2) foraminiferal geochemistry (δ18O and Mg/Ca). Dinocysts are proven tracers of sea-surface temperature (SST), salinity, nutrient supply, and sea ice cover, and are analyzed here to characterize the overlying water masses at the studied sites. Strong dinocyst assemblage fluctuations attest to variations in the influence of the North Atlantic Current (NAC). Using Mg/Ca ratios for the planktonic foraminifer Globigerina bulloides to determine absolute SSTs allows salinity changes to be reconstructed when combined with stable oxygen isotopes. This study shows a persistent Gulf Stream–NAC in the western North Atlantic during MIS M2, favoring a southern shift of the NAC over a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. At the newly established Plio-Pleistocene boundary, a profound turnover in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages reveals a shift in ocean mode during MIS 104 (2.6 Ma). Three distinct dinocyst ecozones demonstrate this fundamental reorganization of the North Atlantic circulation.

A large database of domestic mammal bone measurements from sites across Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and the Northern and Western Isles of Scotland is presented. The reasons for variations in bone growth of domestic ungulates are examined in detail; nutrition is identified as a key factor in the determination of adult bone size and shape. Possible sources of variation in bone size in both time and space in the North Atlantic region are identified. Four hypotheses are proposed; firstly that bone dimensions, particularly breadth, will decrease with increasing latitude in the study region; secondly that higher status sites will raise larger livestock than lower status sites within the same time period and region; thirdly the size of domestic mammals in the Northern and Western Isles of Scotland will increase in the Later Iron Age, possibly in relation to increased fodder supply; finally at times of environmental degradation (climatic and/or landscape) domestic mammal size will decrease. The latitude hypothesis could only be partly upheld; there is no evidence for increased size with site status; a small increase in size is noted at some Scottish Iron Age sites and varying results are found for the environmental degradation hypothesis. The results are discussed with particular reference to how changes in the skeletal proportions of domestic mammals affect their human carers and beneficiaries. The potential of further expanding the dataset and integrating biometrical data with other forms of evidence to create a powerful tool for the examination of economic and environmental changes at archaeological sites is discussed.

O Homem é parte integrante do sistema Ambiental. O ambiente cria impactos Nele e por sua vez ele também pode provocar impactos no Ambiente. O objetivo da tese foi identificar qual a intensidade e freqüência do impacto que a poluição atmosférica e a variabilidade das variáveis meteorológicas na saúde da população da Área Metropolitana do Porto (Portugal), através de um estudo epidemiológico ecológico. Escolheu-se o período de 2002 a 2005 para estudar um conjunto de cidades que contam com espaços urbanos, suburbanos e industriais mesclados, perto do litoral Atlântico com clima Mediterrânico. Usando como métodos a análise descritiva e multivariada (ACP), de correlação e regressão múltipla (RM), assim como índices de conforto térmico (ID, H, Te e Tev), trabalharam-se dados de admissões hospitalares (4 hospitais públicos) de doenças cardiovasculares (DCV) (401-405, Hipertensão; 410-414, DCV Isquêmica, 426-428, Insuficiência Cardíaca) e respiratórias (490-496, Asma/Bronquite; 500-507, Pneumoconioses), informações meteorológicas do Instituto de Meteorologia de Portugal (Temperatura, Umidade, Precipitação e Pressão) e valores diários e mensais do índice de Oscilação do Atlântico Norte (OAN), da NOAA, assim como, saídas de normais de pressão e médias de velocidade de vento do modelo NOAA e de 10 estações fixas de qualidade do ar pertencentes à Agencia Portuguesa do Ambiente (O3; NO2, NO, CO, SO2, PM10, PM2,5). Identificaram-se alguns períodos de temperaturas elevadas (38°C) durante o verão e inversões térmicas durante o inverno (2004/05), as quais criaram situações de estresse térmico por calor e muito frio (dos 1461 mais de 930 dias -24°C< TEv tmin Urmáx vmáx < 0°C), por um lado, e aumento da poluição, por outro. Esse aumento da poluição contribuiu para se observar maior número de casos por doenças respiratórias por Asma/bronquite (lag 3 dias durante inverno 2004/05 correlação com PM2,5=0,33), doenças Cardíacas Hipertensivas (regressão multivariada para Primavera, para PM10 com Beta=0,80, R2ajustado=0,076), e Insuficiências Cardíacas (regressão para Outono NO2 Beta = 0,42 com R2ajustado= 0,060). Encontrou-se também relação significativa e forte entre a variabilidade da Oscilação do Atlântico Norte (OAN) e de alguns poluentes durante o inverno (ex: correlação PM10=0,71, em 2003; PM2,5= 0,91, em 2005; SO2=0,45, em 2004). Uma importante conclusão, também sugerida por outros autores, é que as mudanças climáticas podem modificar a intensidade e regularidade da OAN, afetando assim a circulação atmosférica o que terá impacto direto na dispersão dos poluentes em pequena escala e conseqüentemente irá influenciar a saúde publica. / Humans are part of environmental system. Environment impacts on Humans and we so can impact on earth ecosystems. The thesis aims identify the intensity and frequency of air pollution and meteorological impact on Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA) public health, although a ecological epidemiological study. The 2002- 2005 period was select to study climatologically Mediterranean seaside cities with typical urban, suburban and industrial mixed spaces. The statistical methods used were: descriptive and multivariate (ACP) analyze, correlation and multiple regression, as well as, discomfort indices (ID, Te, Tev, H). Data set from 3 different institutions was analyzed: admission from 4 public hospitals referent to heart (401-405, Hypertension; 410-414, Ischemic cardiac, 426-428, Heart Insufficiency) and respiratory diseases (490-496, Asthma/Bronchitis; 500-507, Pneumoconioses), meteorological information from Meteorological Institute of Portugal.(Temperature, Humidity, Precipitation, Wind speed, Pressure) and daily and monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index values, from NOAA, as well as, pressure daily normal and wind velocity daily mean NOAA model output and from 10 fixed air quality stations (Environmental Portuguese Agency) the pollutants (O3; NO2, NO, CO, SO2, PM10, PM2,5) time series. Some high temperature (38°C) periods was identified during summertime and thermal inversions in the wintertime (2004 and 2005), which provoked stress for heat and cold (from 1461 days, 930 days the thermal sensation was -24°C< TEv tmin Urmáx vmáx < 0°C), and pollution increase. The air pollution increased the hospital admissions for respiratory diseases special Asthma/bronquitis (lag 3 days during 2004/05 Winter correlation PM2.5= 0.33), Cardiac Hypertension (Spring multivariate regression Beta= 0.80, R2ajusted= 0.076), and Heart insufficiency (Autumn multivariate regression NO2 Beta = 0.42 with R2ajustaded= 0.060). Significant and strong association was found between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and some pollutants during Wintertime (eg.: correlation PM10=0.71, 2003; PM2.5=0.91, 2005; SO2=0.45, 2004). ). It is important to notice that some studies have already suggested that climate change can modify the intensity and regularity of the NAO, affecting the atmospheric general circulation and it could have a direct impact on pollutants dispersion in small scale and on public health.

Under what conditions and for what reasons do American leaders seek the endorsement of relevant international organizations (IOs) such as the UN or NATO for prospective military interventions? My central hypothesis is that U.S. government efforts to obtain IO approval for prospective interventions are frequently the result of significant bureaucratic deliberations and bargaining between hawkish policy leaders who emphasize the likely positive payoffs of a prompt use of force, on the one side, and skeptical officials--with the top military brass and war veterans in senior policy positions at the forefront--who highlight its potential downsides and long-term costs, on the other. The military leaders--the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the regional combatant commanders, and senior planners on the Joint Staff in Washington--are generally skeptical of humanitarian and other "idealist" interventions that aim to change the domestic politics of foreign countries; they naturally tend to consider all the potential downsides of intervention, given their operational focus; and they usually worry more than activist civilian policy officials about public and congressional support for protracted engagements. Assuming that the military leaders are not merely stooges of the civilian leadership, they are at first likely to altogether resist a prospective intervention, when they believe that no vital American interests are at stake and fear an open-ended deployment of U.S. troops. Given the military's professional expertise and their standing in American society, they come close to holding a de facto veto over prospective interventions they clearly oppose. I hypothesize that confronted with such great initial reluctance or opposition on the part of the military brass, civilian advocates of intervention from other government agencies will seek inter alia to obtain an advance endorsement from relevant IOs, so as to lock in international support and thereby reassure the military and their bureaucratic allies that the long-term costs to the United States in terms of postwar peacekeeping and stabilization will be limited. That, in turn, can be expected to help forge a winning bureaucratic coalition in Washington and persuade the president to authorize military action. United States multilateralism for military interventions is thus often a genuine policy resultant--the outcome of sustained bureaucratic deliberations and bargaining--and it may not actually reflect the initial preferences of any particular government agency or senior official.

The Northern Isles are strongly influenced by changes in the North Atlantic Ocean atmosphere system and, as they project northwards from the British Isles, provide an ideal geographical opportunity to study changing climatic gradients during the last glacial/interglacial transition along with the detection of regime shifts. Three proxies, diatoms, pollen, and micro-XRF sediment chemistry, have been employed to explore the nature and timing of environmental changes within the water columns and the wider catchments of Loch of Sabiston, Orkney, and Loch of Clumlie and Loch of Grimsetter, Shetland to better understand the nature and timing of environmental change within and among the island groups. The records are constrained by radiocarbon dating, supported by tephrochronology, and the Greenland ice core chronology to enable the comparison of the records produced by this study with previous research in the North Atlantic region. The diatom and lithological results from Loch of Sabiston suggest early deglaciation at c. 23,000 cal BP followed by gradual warming (GI-1e) punctuated by the cooling events coeval with GS-1 and GI-1b. However, the pollen record reflects a lagged response in the development from colonising cold tolerant vegetation to more temperate shrub and woodland communities. The Oracadian signal is dominated by the switching on and off of the accumulation of marl which serves as a supporting indicator of warmer conditions. The Shetland landscape appears to have been deglaciated later at c. 16,400 cal BP, but also has clear representation of GI-1e and the cooling events of GI-1b and GS-1. Both the Shetland and Orkney records record the dramatic cooling of the Younger Dryas but also suggest a two stage change from colder and drier to colder and wetter conditions before the onset of the Holocene. Shetland appears to have experienced less extreme climatic changes in comparison to Orkney despite being in the same present phytogeographical region. This is likely due to the former persisting in the arctic domain and the latter being closer to the latitudinal shifts in the warmer ocean circulation of the North Atlantic during the LGIT. Comparison of the three proxies demonstrates that they may differ by several hundred years in their response to dramatic climatic changes and, therefore, highlights the strength of multi-proxy approaches to reconstructing Quaternary environments. Combining proxies such as diatom and μ-XRF scanning techniques will provide a greater understanding of the processes occurring during environmental change in this region.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de proposer de nouvelles approches plus efficaces pour améliorer la situation du trafic aérien dans l'Atlantique Nord (NAT). NAT est considéré comme l'espace aérien océanique le plus utilisé dans le monde. Le contrôle du trafic aérien dans cet espace confronte plusieurs difficultés dues aux différences de fuseaux horaires, aux demandes des passagers et aux vents forts induits par les jet-streams. De plus, la prédiction et le contrôle des trajectoire de vol sont très limités à cause de l'abscence de couverture radar. Par conséquent, une structure de routes, appelée Organized Track System (OTS), est établie dans le NAT et des normes de séparation très rigide sont imposés. Tous ces facteurs obligent les vols à suivre des trajectoires non optimales, ce qui influence négativement la consommation de carburant et le coût total du vol. Dans le cadre des projet lancé pour moderniser le systéme de gestion du trafic aérien, de nouvelles technologie de communication, de navigation et de surveillance ont été développés, l'un des plus prometteurs étant l'ADS-B. L'utilisation de l'ADS-B permet d'exploiter de nouvelles et différentes méthodes d'organiser le trafic, alternative à l'OTS, ce qui constitue l'axe principal de notre travail. Tout d'abord, nous étudions la possibilité d'introduire le Free Flight Concept (FFC) dans le NAT. En effet, nous proposons une nouvelle approche pour organiser le trafic aérien NAT en se basant sur un comportement d'essaim. En effet, le trafic est considéré comme un système Multi-Agent où tous les vols coopèrent, grâce à l'ADSB, afin de construire leurs trajectoires, tout en détectant et en résolvant les conflits entre eux. Les trajectoires résultantes sont efficaces en terme de temps de croisière. Cependant, ils ne sont pas robustes contre les changements du vents. Ensuite, nous proposons une nouvelle structure de route qui bénéficie du jet stream. Cette structure de route est appelée Wind-Optimal Track Network (WOTN), et est construite en considérant les normes de séparation réduites. WOTN couvre un plus grand espace aérien que l'OTS, afin de gérer un trafic plus dense. En gros, WOTN est construit de telle sorte que des pistes parallèles proches sont mis-en place pour suivre le jet- stream et les transitions entre les pistes n'est autorisé que dans les sections d'entrée et de sortie de la structure. Les résultats révèlent l'importance de mettre en place une structure de route afin de garantir des trajectoires robustes face aux vents forts. Enfin, nous proposons une approche permettant aux aéronefs de sortir en toute sécurité de la structure de la route en cas d'urgence. / The objective of the present thesis is to propose new more efficient trends to improve the air traffic situation over the North Atlantic (NAT) airspace. In fact, the NAT is considered to be the most congested oceanic airspace in the world. For many years, air traffic control in this airspace has experienced many difficulties caused by the time zone differences, passenger demands and strong winds induced by the jet streams. This leads to high congestion in the airspace especially at peak hours. Furthermore, flight trajectory prediction and control are very limited due to the lack of radar coverage in oceanic airspace. To support conflict-free flight progress, a structure of routes, called Organized Track System (OTS), is established in the NAT and very restrictive separation standards are applied. These rigid rules oblige flights to follow non-optimal trajectories, which negatively influences the fuel consumption and the total flight cost. In order to guarantee efficient traffic separation in the context of ever increasing trafic density, alternative means of communication, navigation and surveillance were developed and progressively be implemented, one of the most promising being the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). The widespread use of ADS-B makes it possible to organize traffic in new ways, as an alternative to the OTS, which is the main focus of the current work. First of all, we investigate the possibility of introducing the Free Flight Concept (FFC) in NAT. Indeed, we present an approach to construct and organize NAT traffic based on a swarm behavior. Here, the traffic is considered as a Multi-Agent system where all flights cooperate, thanks to ADS-B equipage, in order to construct their trajectories, while detecting and resolving conflicts between each other. The resulting trajectories are efficient in term of cruise time. However, they are not robust regarding changing winds. Next, we propose a new route structure for eastbound NAT traffic that benefit from the jet stream. This route structure is called Wind-Optimal Track Network (WOTN), and is constructed based on the reduced separation norms. WOTN covers larger airspace than the OTS, in order to handle the growing traffic. Roughly, WOTN is constructed in such a way that nearby parallel tracks are made to follow the jet streams and re-routing between tracks is only allowed in the input and output sections of the structure. Results reveal the importance of implementing a route structure in order to guaranty robust trajectories in the face of strong winds. Finally, we propose an approach to allow aircraft to safely exit the route structure in case of an emergency. The overall methodologies are implemented and tested with eastbound flight data over the NAT. We thereby produce conflict-free and robust trajectory planning for eastbound NAT flights, while benefiting from the reduced separation norms and the jet stream thus proving the efficiency of our approaches.

Die Tiefenkonvektion ist ein wesentlicher Bestandteil der Zirkulation im Nordatlantik. Sie beeinflusst den nordwärtigen Wärmetransport der thermohalinen Zirkulation. Ein Verständnis ihrer Stabilität und Variabilität ist daher nötig, um Klimaveränderungen im Bereich des Nordatlantiks einschätzen zu können. <br /> <br /> Diese Arbeit hat zum Ziel, das konzeptionelle Verständnis der Stabilität und der Variabilität der Tiefenkonvektion zu verbessern. Beobachtungsdaten aus der Labradorsee zeigen Phasen mit und ohne Tiefenkonvektion. Ein einfaches Modell mit zwei Boxen wird an diese Daten angepasst. Das Ergebnis legt nahe, dass die Labradorsee zwei koexistierende stabile Zustände hat, einen mit regelmäßiger Tiefenkonvektion und einen ohne Tiefenkonvektion. Diese Bistabilität ergibt sich aus einer positiven Salzgehalts-Rückkopplung, deren Ursache ein Netto-Süßwassereintrag in die Deckschicht ist. Der konvektive Zustand kann schnell instabil werden, wenn der mittlere Antrieb sich hin zu wärmeren oder weniger salzhaltigen Bedingungen ändert. <br /> <br /> Die wetterbedingte Variabilität des externen Antriebs wird durch die Addition eines stochastischen Antriebsterms in das Modell eingebaut. Es zeigt sich, dass dann die Tiefenkonvektion häufig an- und wieder ausgeschaltet wird. Die mittlere Aufenthaltszeit in beiden Zuständen ist ein Maß ihrer stochastischen Stabilität. Die stochastische Stabilität hängt in glatter Weise von den Parametern des Antriebs ab, im Gegensatz zu der deterministischen (nichtstochastischen) Stabilität, die sich abrupt ändern kann. Sowohl das Mittel als auch die Varianz des stochastischen Antriebs beeinflussen die Häufigkeit von Tiefenkonvektion. Eine Abnahme der Konvektionshäufigkeit, als Reaktion auf eine Abnahme des Salzgehalts an der Oberfläche, kann zum Beispiel durch eine Zunahme der Variabilität in den Wärmeflüssen kompensiert werden. <br /> <br /> Mit einem weiter vereinfachten Box-Modell werden einige Eigenschaften der stochastischen Stabilität analytisch untersucht. Es wird ein neuer Effekt beschrieben, die wandernde Monostabilität: Auch wenn die Tiefenkonvektion aufgrund geänderter Parameter des Antriebs kein stabiler Zustand mehr ist, kann der stochastische Antrieb immer noch häufig Konvektionsereignisse auslösen. Die analytischen Gleichungen zeigen explizit, wie die wandernde Monostabilität sowie andere Effekte von den Modellparametern abhängen. Diese Abhängigkeit ist für die mittleren Aufenthaltszeiten immer exponentiell, für die Wahrscheinlichkeit langer nichtkonvektiver Phasen dagegen nur dann, wenn diese Wahrscheinlichkeit gering ist. Es ist zu erwarten, dass wandernde Monostabilität auch in anderen Teilen des Klimasystems eine Rolle spielt. <br /> <br /> Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass die Stabilität der Tiefenkonvektion in der Labradorsee sehr empfindlich auf den Antrieb reagiert. Die Rolle der Variabilität ist entscheidend für ein Verständnis dieser Empfindlichkeit. Kleine Änderungen im Antrieb können bereits die Häufigkeit von Tiefenkonvektionsereignissen deutlich mindern, was sich vermutlich stark auf das regionale Klima auswirkt. / Deep convection is an essential part of the circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. It influences the northward heat transport achieved by the thermohaline circulation. Understanding its stability and variability is therefore necessary for assessing climatic changes in the area of the North Atlantic. <br /> <br /> This thesis aims at improving the conceptual understanding of the stability and variability of deep convection. Observational data from the Labrador Sea show phases with and without deep convection. A simple two-box model is fitted to these data. The results suggest that the Labrador Sea has two coexisting stable states, one with regular deep convection and one without deep convection. This bistability arises from a positive salinity feedback that is due to the net freshwater input into the surface layer. The convecting state can easily become unstable if the mean forcing shifts to warmer or less saline conditions. <br /> <br /> The weather-induced variability of the external forcing is included into the box model by adding a stochastic forcing term. It turns out that deep convection is then switched &quot;on&quot; and &quot;off&quot; frequently. The mean residence time in either state is a measure of its stochastic stability. The stochastic stability depends smoothly on the forcing parameters, in contrast to the deterministic (non-stochastic) stability which may change abruptly. The mean and the variance of the stochastic forcing both have an impact on the frequency of deep convection. For instance, a decline in convection frequency due to a surface freshening may be compensated for by an increased heat flux variability. <br /> <br /> With a further simplified box model some stochastic stability features are studied analytically. A new effect is described, called wandering monostability: even if deep convection is not a stable state due to changed forcing parameters, the stochastic forcing can still trigger convection events frequently. The analytical expressions explicitly show how wandering monostability and other effects depend on the model parameters. This dependence is always exponential for the mean residence times, but for the probability of long nonconvecting phases it is exponential only if this probability is small. It is to be expected that wandering monostability is relevant in other parts of the climate system as well. <br /> <br /> All in all, the results demonstrate that the stability of deep convection in the Labrador Sea reacts very sensitively to the forcing. The presence of variability is crucial for understanding this sensitivity. Small changes in the forcing can already significantly lower the frequency of deep convection events, which presumably strongly affects the regional climate. <br><br>----<br>Anmerkung:<br> Der Autor ist Träger des durch die Physikalische Gesellschaft zu Berlin vergebenen Carl-Ramsauer-Preises 2003 für die jeweils beste Dissertation der vier Universitäten Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Technische Universität Berlin und Universität Potsdam.

Two long-lived halogen radionuclides (36Cl, T1/2 = 301 kyr, and 129I, T1/2 = 15.7 Myr) have been studied by means of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) at the Uppsala Tandem Laboratory. The 36Cl measurements in natural samples using a medium-sized tandem accelerator (~1 MeV/amu) have been considered. A gas-filled magnetic spectrometer (GFM) was proposed for the separation of 36Cl from its isobar, 36S. Semi-empirical Monte-Carlo ion optical calculations were conducted to define optimal conditions for separating 36Cl and 36S. A 180° GFM was constructed and installed at the dedicated AMS beam line. 129I has been measured in waters from the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. Most of the 129I currently present in the Earth's surface environment can be traced back to liquid and gaseous releases from the nuclear reprocessing facilities at Sellafield (UK) and La Hague (France). The anthropogenic 129I inventory in the central Arctic Ocean was found to increase proportionally to the integrated 129I releases from these reprocessing facilities. The interaction and origin of water masses in the region have been clearly distinguished with the help of 129I labeling. Predictions based on a compartment model calculation showed that the Atlantic Ocean and deep Arctic Ocean are the major sinks for the reprocessed 129I. The variability in 129I concentration measured in seawater along a transect from the Baltic Sea to the North Atlantic suggests strong enrichment in the Skagerrak–Kattegat basin. The 129I inventory in the Baltic and Bothnian Seas is equal to ~0.3% of the total liquid releases from the reprocessing facilities. A lake sediment core sampled in northeastern Ireland was analyzed for 129I to study the history of the Sellafield releases, in particular the nuclear accident of 1957. High 129I concentration was observed corresponding to 1990 and later, while no indication of the accident was found. The results of this thesis research clearly demonstrate the uniqueness and future potential of 129I as a tracer of processes in both marine and continental archives.