Há evidências de que o clima vem sendo alterado pela ação humana desde a época da Revolução Industrial devido à crescente emissão de gases estufa na atmosfera. Inúmeras curvas da variação da temperatura média anual têm sido publicadas com uma característica comum: o crescimento da temperatura durante o último século, totalizando aproximadamente 0,5ºC. Acredita-se que o aumento na concentração atmosférica dos gases responsáveis pelo efeito estufa tenha influência direta na tendência da temperatura dos últimos 100 anos. Este trabalho foi realizado com o intuito de estudar as mudanças no comportamento sazonal e anual da temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM), pressão atmosférica ao nível do mar (PNM) e transporte barotrópico (TB) devido ao aumento na concentração dos gases estufa. Foram utilizadas duas simulações do modelo acoplado NCAR CCSM sob as condições atmosféricas do período pré-industrial e pós-industrial. Os resultados revelam que, na média anual, as variáveis estudadas sofreram intensificação do período pré para o pós-industrial. A temperatura da superfície do mar mostrou aumento no período pós-industrial, principalmente durante o inverno e primavera, quando ocorre um aquecimento superior a 2,5ºC ao sul do continente sul-americano. A pressão atmosférica ao nível do mar na maior parte da região de estudo apresentou aumento no verão e outono e diminuição nas demais estações do ano, indicando uma intensificação no padrão sazonal dessa variável durante o período pós-industrial em relação ao pré-industrial. O transporte barotrópico revelou diferenças significativas entre os dois experimentos, mostrando maiores valores no período pós-industrial. A média da região apresentou um ciclo anual com diferenças de 2,5Sv ao longo do ano entre os dois períodos, com aumento para o pós-industrial. Esse aumento deve-se basicamente à intensificação do transporte barotrópico da Corrente Circumpolar Antártica durante todas as estações do ano. O Giro Subtropical também sofreu aumento de transporte, de menor intensidade, durante o período pós-industrial. Essa mudança no comportamento do transporte barotrópico sugere uma intensificação no padrão do Giro Subtropical e no transporte da Corrente Circumpolar Antártica para o período pós-industrial. As maiores mudanças entre os dois períodos simulados ocorreram nas latitudes mais altas. / The main objective of this research is to study the impacts of the increase in greenhouse gases concentration on variables behavior at the sea-air interface. For this the NCAR CCSM coupled model is used by two climate conditions: the first one to pre-industrial period and the second one, to present day levels. Annual and seasonal climatology differences are analyzed for the of the following variables: air temperature, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, wind stress, latent and sensible heat fluxes and barotropic transport. Statistics methods such as Empirical Ortoghonal Functions (EOF), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Multi-Taper Method (MTM) are used to analyze changes in interannual behavior of these variables. The main results show that these surface variable are intensified from one period to the next. The air temperature and sea surface temperature showed increase in the pos-industrial period, mainly during the winter and spring. The sea level pressure also showed an increase on the annual mean. The wind stress revealed that the trade winds are intensified in autumn and the meridional wind component increases over the South Atlantic during winter. The winds adjacent to the South American continent also increased. Latent and sensible heat fluxes also increase, but not much, over some regions and decrease over others. Barotropic transport shows significant differences between the two experiments. There was increase of barotropic transport associated with the Subtropical Gyre and on Antartic Circumpolar Current. EOF, SVD and MTM analysis showed significant differences with respect to spatial patterns, behavior of the expansion coeficients time series and their variability.

A hipótese principal deste trabalho é que as anomalias de precipitação na ZCIT com períodos de 20 a 50 dias e dimensão zonal de 1000 a 1500 km, causadas remotamente por Ondas de Instabilidade Tropical (OITs) e/ou Ondas de Rossby Curtas (ORCs) podem causar anomalias de salinidade da superfície do mar. Para responder à hipótese, o presente trabalho quantifica a influência dos padrões propagantes da temperatura da superfície do mar sobre variáveis atmosféricas na escala das ORCs e OITs. Os coeficientes de regressão do vapor dágua integrado verticalmente e da precipitação revelam que a influência da temperatura superficial na atmosfera se dá remotamente à região de domínio das ondas, alcançando a ZCIT. A distribuição das anomalias do divergente do vento corrobora a ideia de aceleração dos ventos sobre águas quentes e desaceleração sobre águas frias. A carência de correlações estatisticamente significativas entre a precipitação e a salinidade superficial, devido à baixa qualidade dos dados, não permitiu que a hipótese principal fosse avaliada. Entretanto, fica evidente a influência destas ondas em variáveis atmosféricas que alteram o balanço de evaporação e precipitação que tem influência direta na salinidade superficial. Denominamos ORCs as oscilações com período de _49 dias e comprimento de onda de _1500 km e OITs os padrões com _21 dias e _1000 km. A identificação dinâmica destas ondas foi feita através da teoria linear de ondas equatoriais no modelo de águas rasas quase-geostrófico para um oceano invíscido de 1,5 camadas. Os dados de anomalia da altura da superfície do mar revelaram apenas a existência de ORCs, enquanto que a temperatura da superfície do mar apresentou o sinal de ambas as ondas, sendo as OITs dominantes até 6_ do Equador. A principal contribuição deste trabalho é a confirmação da hipótese de que OITs e ORCs coexistem, são distinguíveis e geram alterações no vento por mecanismos similares. Até o presente momento, desconhecemos outro estudo que alie a separação teórica dos padrões oceânicos propagantes obtidos por satélites à quantificação da variabilidade atmosférica associada às anomalias de TSM em bandas do espectro zonal-temporal características de ondas dinamicamente distintas / We hypothesize that rainfall anomalies with 2050 days and 10001500 km on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) can induce sea surface salinity anomalies. We argue that these precipitation anomalies are remotely caused by Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) and Short RossbyWaves (SRWs). We have quantified the sea surface temperature influence on atmospheric fields at the TIWs and SRWs spectral bands through regression analysis. In that, wind anomalies are larger over temperature anomalies. Winds tend to accelerate over positive temperature anomalies and slow down over negative anomalies. Changes on water vapor and rainfall occur predominantly on the ITCZ, far from the strongest temperature anomalies near the equator. However, we couldnt address the main hypothesis due to the lack of significant correlation between rainfall and sea surface salinity anomalies. We speculate that this is a consequence of the low quality of the salinity data used in this study. We have identified TIWs as the waves with _21 days and _1000 km and SRWs as the oscillations with _49 days and _1500 km. The identification of the dynamics was made according to equatorial long waves theory based on a linear, quasi-geostrophic, 1.5 layers, inviscid ocean model. Sea surface height anomalies could only reveal SRWs. Sea surface temperature anomalies show both type of waves, with TIWs dominating within 6_ from the equator. Our main contribution was to show that TIWs and SRWs coexist, can be isolated and change wind field through similar mechanisms. We do not know any other study that linked theoretical identification of dynamically different oceanic waves to the atmospheric variability in a quantitative fashion

A Plataforma Continental Sul Brasileira (PCSB) é considerada uma importante região do litoral do Brasil, suas massas d’água e os processos dinâmicos apresentam um comportamento sazonal que imprime fortes efeitos no ecossistema costeiro. Com objetivo de caracterizar a Frente Subtropical de Plataforma (FSTP) e seu impacto na atmosfera, o presente trabalho utilizou o modelo acoplado oceano-atmosfera COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) para estudar, na região da PCSB, a distribuição das massas d’água e a variabilidade oceânica durante o ano de 2012. Assim como, o acoplamento oceano-atmosfera durante 10 dias do mês de junho de 2012, coincidentes com a realização do cruzeiro oceanográfico ACEx/SIMTECO. Os resultados de ambos os períodos de estudo foram comparados com observações históricas, com dados coletados in situ pelo cruzeiro ACEx/SIMTECO e com dados de satélite. Os resultados indicam que essa componente foi capaz de reproduzir as principais características termohalinas e a sazonalidade das águas que dominam a PCSB. A mistura entre as águas de plataforma subtropicais e subantárticas que ocorre na FSTP, apresentou uma clara mudança sazonal em seu volume. Como consequência da mistura e da oscilação sazonal de posição da FSTP, a estabilidade da coluna d´água dentro da PCSB também muda sazonalmente. Os valores de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) e altura da superfície do mar mostraram valores sazonais de REQM inferiores a 2°C e um skill médio superior a 0,75. Valores de velocidade sobre a plataforma para a Corrente Costeira do Brasil (CCB) chegam 0,6 (m.s-1), enquanto o transporte para a Corrente do Brasil (CB) e CCB foram de -7 a -44 Sv e -0,3 a 0,3 Sv, respectivamente. Os mapas sazonais de energia cinética média e energia cinética turbulenta representam o comportamento já conhecido da CB e ressaltam a importância do fluxo costeiro médio ao largo da costa da Argentina ao longo do ano. A comparação dos dados do modelo atmosférico, rodado no modo acoplado do COAWST, com dados observacionais indicam um satisfatório desempenho do modelo em representar as variáveis temperatura potencial, umidade relativa e específica, assim como os campos de vento na superfície do mar. O módulo atmosférico do COAWST foi também capaz de representar as variações da camada limite atmosférica marinha (CLAM), mesmo em condições sinóticas pré e pós-frontais como as observadas durante a realização do cruzeiro ACEx/SIMTECO. O presente trabalho apresenta, pela primeira vez para a região de estudo, resultados que demonstram a robustez do modelo regional COAWST em descrever o comportamento sinótico da atmosfera frente aos gradientes de TSM na região da PCSB. E oferece novos subsídios para o estudo do comportamento do sistema acoplado oceano-atmosfera nesta importante região da costa brasileira. / The South Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) is considered an important region of Brazilian coast, their water masses and the dynamic processes present a seasonal behavior that has strong effects on the coastal ecosystem. In order to characterize the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF) and its impact on the atmosphere, this work used the ocean-atmosphere coupled model COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) to study, in the SBCS region, the distribution of water massas and ocean variability during the year 2012. As well, the ocean-atmosphere coupling during 10 days of June 2012, coinciding with the ACEx/SIMTECO oceanographic cruise. The results of both study periods were compared with historical observations, data collected in situ by the ACEx/SIMTECO cruise and satellite data. The results indicate that this component was capable of reproducing the main thermohaline characteristics and the seasonality of dominant waters of the SBCS. The mixture between subtropical and subantarctic shelf waters that occurs in the STSF, showed a clear seasonal change in its volume. As consequence of mixing and seasonal STSF oscillation, the stability of the water column within the SBCS also changes seasonally. The values of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height showed seasonal RMSE values below 2 °C and an average skill greater than 0,75. Velocity values on the shef for Brazilian Coastal Current (BCC) reach 0,6 (ms-1), while transport to Brazil Current (BC) and BCC were -7 to -44 Sv and -0, 3 to 0.3 Sv, respectively. The seasonal maps of medium kinetic energy and turbulent kinetic energy represent the behavior of the BC and highlight the importance of the average coastal flow off the coast of Argentina during the year. The comparison of data from the atmospheric model, run in coupled mode of COAWST, with observational data indicates a satisfactory performance of the model in representing the variables potential temperature, relative and specific humidity, as well as the wind fields at the surface of the sea. The atmospheric module of COAWST was able to represent the variations of marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), even in pré and post-frontal synoptic conditions such as those observed during the ACEx/SIMTECO cruise. The present work presents, for the first time in this region, results that demonstrate the robustness of the COAWST regional model in describing the synoptic behavior of the atmosphere in front of SST gradients in the SBCS region. And offers new subsidies for the study of the behavior of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system in this important region of the Brazilian coast.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 153-166). / The role of ocean dynamics in driving air-sea interaction is examined at two contrasting sites on 125°W in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean using data from the Pan American Climate Study (PACS) field program. Analysis based on the PACS data set and satellite observations of sea surface temperature (SST) reveals marked differences in the role of ocean dynamics in modulating SST. At a near-equatorial site (3°S), the 1997-1998 El Nifio event dominated the evolution of SST and surface heat fluxes, and it is found that wind-driven southward Ekman transport was important in the local transition from El Nifio to La Nifia conditions. At a 10'N site near the summertime position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, oceanic niesoscale motions played an important role in modulating SST at intraseasonal (50- to 100-day) timescales, and the buoy observations suggest that there are variations in surface solar radiation coupled to these mesoscale SST variations. This suggests that the mesoscale oceanic variability may influence the occurrence of clouds. The intraseasonal variability in currents, sea surface height, and SST at the northern site is examined within the broader spatial and temporal context afforded by satellite data. / (cont.) The oscillations have zonal wavelengths of 550-1650 km and propagate westward in a manner consistent with the dispersion relation for first baroclinic mode, free Rossby waves in the presenice of a, mean westward flow. The hypothesis that the intraseasonal variability and its annual cycle are associated with baroclinic instability of the North Equatorial Current is supported by a spatio-temporal correlation between the amplitude of intraseasonal variability and the occurrence of westward zonal flows meeting an approximate necessary condition for baroclinic instability. Focusing on 100N in the eastern tropical Pacific, the hypothesis that mesoscale oceanic SST variability can systematically influence cloud properties is investigated using several satellite data products. A statistically significant relationship between SST and columnar cloud liquid water (CLW), cloud reflectivity, and surface solar radiation is identified within the wavenumber-frequency band corresponding to oceanic Rossby waves. Analysis of seven years of CLW data and 20 years surface solar radiation data indicates that 10-20% of the variance of these cloud-related properties at intraseasonal periods and wavelengths on the order of 100 longitude can be ascribed to SST signals driven by oceanic Rossby waves. / by J. Thomas Farrar. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 110-119). / This study presents observations of turbulence dynamics made during the low winds portion of the Coupled Boundary Layers and Air-Sea Transfer experiment (CBLAST-Low). Observations were made of turbulent fluxes, turbulent kinetic energy, and the length scales of flux-carrying and energy-containing eddies in the ocean surface boundary layer. A new technique was developed to separate wave and turbulent motions spectrally, using ideas for turbulence spectra that were developed in the study of the bottom boundary layer of the atmosphere. The observations of turbulent fluxes allowed the closing of heat and momentum budgets across the air-sea interface. The observations also show that flux-carrying eddies are similar in size to those expected in rigid-boundary turbulence, but that energy-containing eddies are smaller than those in rigid-boundary turbulence. This suggests that the relationship between turbulent kinetic energy, depth, and turbulent diffusivity are different in the ocean surface boundary layer than in rigid-boundary turbulence. The observations confirm previous speculation that surface wave breaking provides a surface source of turbulent kinetic energy that is transported to depth where it dissipates. A model that includes the effects of shear production, wave breaking and dissipation is able to reproduce the enhancement of turbulent kinetic energy near the wavy ocean surface. However, because of the different length scale relations in the ocean surface boundary layer, the empirical constants in the energy model are different from the values that are used to model rigid-boundary turbulence. The ocean surface boundary layer is observed to have small but finite temperature gradients that are related to the boundary fluxes of heat and momentum, as assumed by closure models. However, the turbulent diffusivity of heat in the surface boundary layer is larger than predicted by rigid-boundary closure models. Including the combined effects of wave breaking, stress, and buoyancy forcing allows a closure model to predict the turbulent diffusivity for heat in the ocean surface boundary layer. / by Gregory Peter Gerbi. / Ph.D.

Thesis (M.S.)--Joint Program in Oceanography/Applied Ocean Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 181-191). / In this thesis I have endeavored to determine the factors and physical processes that controlled SST and thermocline depth at 10⁰N, 125⁰W during the Pan Amer- ican Climate Study (PACS) field program. Analysis based on the PACS data set, TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height data, European Remote Sensing satellite wind data, and model simulations and experiments reveals that the dominant mechanisms affecting the thermocline depth and SST at the mooring site during the measurement period were local surface fluxes, Ekman pumping, and vertical mixing associated with enhancement of the vertical shear by strong near-inertial waves in the upper ocean superimposed upon intra-seasonal baroclinic Rossby waves and the large scale zonal flow. / by J. Thomas Farrar. / M.S.

This study concentrates on analysis of LongEZ aircraft data taken offshore of the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Due to the land structure of the region, it was possible to isolate the effect of narrow land on air as it flows offshore. The narrow land (Outer Banks) separates inland water from the sea. With greater land fetch, the internal boundary layer (IBL) over land grows deeper and the eddies presumably grow larger. Larger eddies typically decay more slowly than smaller eddies, and so the turbulence advected from land with a larger land fetch should survive longer over the sea and be greater in magnitude than that with smaller land fetch. The turbulence is studied using aircraft eddy correlation data as the flow is advected over the water. As expected, greater and longer-lasting turbulence is present downstream from greater land widths. Aircraft data taken over the Gulf Stream (GS) boundary are analyzed to study the effects of the sea surface temperature (SST) front on downstream boundary layer structure. Unstable and stable flows are studied in this region. The stable flow case is found to have an upside-down structure, with greater turbulence aloft causing stress convergence at the surface, which acts to accelerate the flow. The local thermally generated pressure gradient is important in the momentum budget across the GS front in both flow cases. A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image is analyzed qualitatively in the region between the Atlantic Coast and the Gulf Stream front for intercomparison of data and to examine the influences of varying static stabilities and surface conditions upon the backscatter shown in satellite images. The growth rates of the internal boundary layer due to flow over a heterogeneous surface including flow from land over the water and flow between cooler water and warmer water are calculated. These results are compared to similar calculations of growth rates from previous experiments. It is found that the growth rate of an internal boundary layer is dependent on surface roughness, despite the inclusion of σ[subscript w] in the normalization of the growth rate. / Graduation date: 2003

A key determinant of atmospheric circulation patterns and regional climatic conditions is sea surface temperature (SST). This has been the motivation for the development of various teleconnection methods aiming to forecast hydro-climatic variables. Among such methods are linear projections based on teleconnection gross indices (such as the ENSO, IOD, and NAO) or leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). However, these methods deteriorate drastically if the predefined indices or EOFs cannot account for climatic variability in the region of interest. This study introduces a new hydro-climatic forecasting method that identifies SST predictors in the form of dipole structures. An SST dipole that mimics major teleconnection patterns is defined as a function of average SST anomalies over two oceanic areas of appropriate sizes and geographic locations. The screening process of SST-dipole predictors is based on an optimization algorithm that sifts through all possible dipole configurations (with progressively refined data resolutions) and identifies dipoles with the strongest teleconnection to the external hydro-climatic series. The strength of the teleconnection is measured by the Gerrity Skill Score. The significant dipoles are cross-validated and used to generate ensemble hydro-climatic forecasts. The dipole teleconnection method is applied to the forecasting of seasonal precipitation over the southeastern US and East Africa, and the forecasting of streamflow-related variables in the Yangtze and Congo Rivers. These studies show that the new method is indeed able to identify dipoles related to well-known patterns (e.g., ENSO and IOD) as well as to quantify more prominent predictor-predictand relationships at different lead times. Furthermore, the dipole method compares favorably with existing statistical forecasting schemes. An operational forecasting framework to support better water resources management through coupling with detailed hydrologic and water resources models is also demonstrated.

The shape of the thermocline and the depth of the lysoline in the western tropical Pacific are both influenced by the overlying atmosphere, and both the shape of thermocline and the depth of the lysocline can be reconstructed from foraminifera-based paleo-proxies. Paleoclimate proxy evidence suggests a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during times of Northern Hemisphere cooling, including the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 19-23 ka before present. However, evidence for movement over the Pacific has mainly been limited to precipitation reconstructions near the continents, and the position of the Pacific marine ITCZ is less well constrained. In this study, I address this problem by taking advantage of the fact that the upper ocean density structure reflects the overlying wind field. I reconstruct changes in the upper ocean density structure during the LGM using oxygen isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminifera G. ruber and G. tumida in a transect of sediment cores from the Western Tropical Pacific. The data suggest a ridge in the thermocline just north of the present-day ITCZ persists for at least part of the LGM, and a structure in the Southern Hemisphere that differs from today. The reconstructed structure is consistent with that produced in a General Circulation Model with both a Northern and Southern Hemisphere ITCZ. I also attempt to reconstruct the upper ocean density structure for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 6, the interglacial and glacial periods, respectively, previous to the LGM. The data show a Northern Hemisphere thermocline ridge for both of these periods. There is insufficient data to draw any conclusions about the Southern Hemisphere thermocline. Using the same set of sediment cores, I also attempt to reconstruct lysocline depth over the last 23,000 years using benthic foraminiferal carbon isotope ratios, planktonic foraminiferal masses, and sediment coarse fraction percentage. Paleoclimate proxy evidence and modeling studies suggest that the deglaciation following the LGM is associated with a deepening of the lysocline and an increase in sedimentary calcite preservation. Although my data lack the resolution to constrain the depth of the lysocline, they do show an increase in calcite preservation during the last deglaciation, consistent with lysocline deepening as carbon moves from the deep ocean to the atmosphere.

This thesis has investigated the improvement of forecasting temperature in a coastal embayment through the assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) observations. The research was prompted by the increasing pressures on the coastal marine environment. To better manage the environment, an improved understanding of its future state is necessary. Improving the forecasting of temperature advances our knowledge in this direction. Whilst assimilation of SST is routinely carried out for oceans, its use has been minimal in coastal regions, which is more complicated because of anisotropic covariances and a breakdown of geostrophy in the coastal region. Improvements in computing power, and the introduction of ensemble-based assimilation techniques have made the approach followed in this thesis possible. (For complete abstract open document)