The thermohaline circulation (THC) corresponds to the large time- and spatial-scales ocean circulation associated with the transport of heat and salt, and is known to be an important factor controlling the climate variability. The large scales involved in the THC make it difficult to observe, and therefore the synergy of numerical models and climate proxy reconstructions is particularly relevant to study the characteristics of this circulation in the present and past climates. In this doctoral thesis, the THC during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Present-Day (PD) is explored using a state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Model in its high- and low-resolution regimes. By comparing the LGM model outputs with the paleo-proxy reconstructions, it is shown that the high-resolution simulation improves the representation of the sea surface tem- peratures in the regions where the current structures appear to be complex, i.e., the western boundary currents (Agulhas, Kuroshio, Gulf Stream) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, although statistical comparisons with paleo- proxy reconstructions are not significantly improved on a global scale. The THC involves a superposition of processes acting at widely different spatial and temporal scales, from the geostrophic large-scale and slowly-varying flow to the mesoscale turbulent eddies and at even smaller-scale, the mixing generated by the internal wave field. Not all these processes can be properly resolved in numerical models, and thus need to be parameterized. Analyzing the THC in an eddy-permitting numerical model, it was found that the temporal scales required for diagnosing the Southern Ocean circulation should not exceed 1 month and the spatial scales needed to be taken into account must be smaller than 1°. Important changes in the nature and intensity of the THC were observed between the LGM and PD simulations. An estimation of the turnover times (i.e., the time it takes for the water parcel to make and entire loop on the Conveyor Belt) revealed that the LGM THC could be more vigorous than under the PD conditions. As a result, the ocean transports of heat and freshwater, the oceanic uptake of CO2, the ventilation of the deep ocean and the reorganization of the passive and active tracers (e.g., temperature, salinity, greenhouse gases, nutrients) can be altered in these different regimes. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 5: Manuscript. </p>

The purpose of this study is to investigate the evolution of the Arctic Ocean’s carbon uptake capacity and impacts on ocean acidification with the changing sea-ice scape. In particular, I study the influence on air-ice-sea fluxes of carbon with two major updates to commonly-used carbon cycle models I have included. One, incorporation of sea ice algae to the ecosystem, and two, modification of the sea-ice carbon pump, to transport brineassociated Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and Total Alkalinity (TA) to the depth of the bottom of the mixed layer (as opposed to releasing it in the surface model layer). I developed the ice algal ecosystem model by adding a sympagic (ice-associated) ecosystem into a 1D coupled sea ice-ocean model. The 1D model was applied to Resolute Passage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and evaluated with observations from a field campaign during the spring of 2010. I then implemented an inorganic carbon system into the model. The carbon system includes effects on both DIC and TA due to the coupled ice-ocean ecosystem, ikaite precipitation and dissolution, ice-air and air-sea carbon exchange, and ice-sea DIC and TA exchange through a formulation for brine rejection to depth and freshwater dilution associated with ice growth and melt. The 1D simulated ecosystem was found to compare reasonably well with observations in terms of bloom onset and seasonal progression for both the sympagic and pelagic algae. In addition, the inorganic carbon system showed reasonable agreement between observations of upper water column DIC and TA content. The simulated average ocean carbon uptake during the period of open water was 10.2 mmol C m−2 day−1 ( 11 g C m−2 over the entire open-water season). Using the developments from the 1D model, a 3D biogeochemical model of the Arctic Ocean incorporating both sea ice and the water column was developed and tested, with a focus on the pan-Arctic oceanic uptake of carbon in the recent era of Arctic sea ice decline (1980 – 2015). The model suggests the total uptake of carbon for the Arctic Ocean (north of 66.5 N) increases from 110 Tg C yr−1 in the early eighties (1980 – 1985) to 140 Tg C yr−1 for 2010 – 2015, an increase of 30%. The rise in SST accounts for 10% of the increase in simulated pan-Arctic sea surface pCO2. A regional analysis indicated large variability between regions, with the Laptev Sea exhibiting low sea surface pH relative to the pan- Arctic domain mean and seasonal undersaturation of arag by the end of the standard run. Two sensitivity studies were performed to assess the effects of sea-ice algae and the sea-ice carbon pump in the pan-Arctic, with a focus on sea surface inorganic carbon properties. Excluding the sea ice-carbon-pump showed a marked decrease in seasonal variability of sea-surface DIC and TA averaged over the Arctic Ocean compared to the standard run, but only a small change in the net total carbon uptake (of 1% by the end of the no icecarbon-pump run). Neglecting the sea ice algae, on the other hand, exhibits only a small change in sea-surface DIC and TA averaged over the pan-Arctic Ocean, but a cumulative effect on the net total carbon uptake of the Arctic Ocean (reaching 5% less than that of the standard run by the end of the no-ice-algae run). / Graduate

This bachelor's thesis aimed to analyze how Swedish people going through solitude join support groups online and how they classified themselves on the big five model (shortened FFM) and if there are certain factors that lay a role in who decides to join the support group(s) online. By joining the support groups on social media forums and recruiting participants from within, the participants were able to fill out an online form where they could fill in how they classified themselves on every factor of the big five model with points ranging from 1-5. The main result showed that participants from support groups for lonely people reported significantly higher levels of Agreeableness compared to other factors. Also the levels of Openness were higher than Extraversion.

Realistic physical-biological ocean models pose challenges to statistical techniques due to their complexity, nonlinearity and high dimensionality. In this thesis, statistical data assimilation techniques for parameter and state estimation are adapted and applied to biological models. These methods rely on quantitative measures of agreement between models and observations. Eight such measures are compared and a suitable multiscale measure is selected for data assimilation. Build on this, two data assimilation approaches, a particle filter and a computationally efficient emulator approach are tested and contrasted. It is shown that both are suitable for state and parameter estimation. The emulator is also used to analyze sensitivity and uncertainty of a realistic biological model. Application of the statistical procedures yields insights into the model; e.g. time-dependent parameter estimates are obtained which are consistent with biological seasonal cycles and improves model predictions as evidenced by cross-validation experiments. Estimates of model sensitivity are high with respect to physical model inputs, e.g river runoff.

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A numerical circulation model of Tampa Bay, Florida is used to simulate the flow field and tidal residual circulation for 2001-2004. This model is used to investigate the effects of extreme events on the residual circulation of the bay. The three extreme events that are used in this study are: Hurricane Frances, Hurricane Jeanne, and an extreme winter frontal passage that occurred on December 26, 2004. Each extreme event was divided into phases that were chosen by wind peaks and times of velocity inflow and outflow. There were three phases to the hydrodynamics effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. Hurricane Jeanne and the winter frontal passage each had two phases. An important difference between the three extreme events is the duration of each; Hurricane Frances lasted approximately two and a half days, Hurricane Jeanne affected the bay area for about twenty-four hours, and the extratropical storm passed within 16 hours. Winds were six standard deviations higher than the 2004 mean (4.06 m s-1) during Hurricane Frances, and seven standard deviations higher during both Hurricane Jeanne and the extratropical storm. Water levels reached four standard deviations during Hurricane Frances and the extratropical storm, and two standard deviations during Hurricane Jeanne. The difference between these results is due to the timing of each event with the tides, whether it was in or out of phase with the tides. During phase 2 of Hurricane Frances there was a total volume inflow of m3, for an increase of 60% in bay volume. There was a total volume outflow during phase 3 of m3, a 28% decrease. During Hurricane Jeanne there was a total volume inflow of m3 (30% increase) and total volume outflow of m3 (14% decrease). The extratropical storm showed a total volume inflow of m3 (29% increase) and a total volume outflow of m3 (31% decrease). Though the increase and decrease of volume for each event was different, they all had the same affect on the bay, causing changes in the residual circulation over time scales of these extreme events.

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<p>NR 20140805</p>

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第20062号 / 工博第4250号 / 新制||工||1658(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 寶 馨, 教授 立川 康人, 准教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM