The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the relationship between fertility rates and the economy in Venezuela. In particular, it looks at the extreme fluctuations in oil revenues, Venezuela's main source of income, in the 1970s and their impact on fertility. It uses the 1998 National Survey of Population and Family collected in Venezuela by The Central Office of Statistics and Information to estimate a Poisson model of total fertility by union cohort and to empirically investigate changes in childbearing patterns. The results show that compared to the 1967-1968 union cohort, all subsequent union cohorts decline in total fertility in the first 14 years after entering the first union. This finding raises the possibility that the period fertility rate stall and reversal of the 1970s are not associated with rises in total fertility. Further, the simple two period model of fertility timing developed for this study illustrates how females may change their fertility timing by responding to temporary changes in income, either through changes in wages or changes in the amount of transfers. Also, the duration analysis presents differences in childbearing patterns where the boom cohort seems to be at a higher risk of an additional child for lower parities, but at a lower risk for higher parities when compared to the bust cohort. These differences seem to remain even after controlling for individual characteristics or secular changes between the two cohorts. This study is important, because it highlights how sharp and short changes in economic conditions faced by a Venezuelan household induce a change in the timing of birth, thereby creating unexpected moves in the period fertility rates. Understanding the source of these moves can help to plan for them in the future. / Ph. D.

Banks as the most evident financial institutions which provide a range of financial services in their primary role as intermediary from lenders and borrowers of money to sophisticated tools concerned with credit and liquidity provision, risk management and remittance of funds play a vital role in the economy of countries. Measuring the performance of banks, and identifying the factors which impact it, is an issue of major interest for regulators, policy makers, stakeholders, investors and the general public. Oil price movement as an external factor influencing the performance of banks, may affect macroeconomic events which, in turn, influence cash flows significantly in the finance and banking industry. Examining the performance of banks and how oil price movement impact their performance significantly those operating in oil exporting countries, is of interest of bank managers and policy makers. It will help top level managers of banks to be aware of relationship between oil price movement and the performance of their banks and will help them in formulating better policies and strategies in taking on opportunities and avoiding possible risks which this movement may cause. Moreover, it will help policy makers in oil exporting countries to understand how the banking industry of an oil exporting country can reap benefits from economic booms as a consequence of an increase in the price of oil. Therefore, this thesis attempts to investigate the impact of oil price movement on the performance of banks under different operational styles in oil exporting countries. The sample is consisting of 98 commercial, investment and Islamic banks in eight Middle Eastern oil exporting (MEOE) countries during the period 2000-2011. The research applies a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis to examine the impact of oil price movement on performance of banks. In the first stage, four different efficiency scores of banks operating in the MEOE countries are derived and compared. The empirical results suggest that overall, MEOE banking industries mostly suffer from poor usage of and mal-location of resources by management to produce outputs, rather than a failure in operating at the most productive scale. A low level of overall technical efficiency in the MEOE banking industry means that management has poor skills in controlling operating expenses, marketing activities, absorbing deposits and the monitoring and effective screening of borrowers. In the second stage, to find out the impact of oil price movement on the performance of banks, technical efficiency scores obtained from the first stage are regressed over the oil price movement variable and environmental variables. The empirical results show that while oil revenue impacts the efficiency of the banks directly, positive oil price shocks impact efficiency of banks indirectly, and through inflation and economic growth. These findings suggest that when there is an increase in the price of oil, banks operating in oil exporting countries will derive benefit from the surplus income injected into the economy and their performance will be enhanced.

Cette thèse étudie l’intégration des enjeux environnementaux aux politiques énergétiques française et allemande entre 1973 et 2000. Alors que les deux pays sont généralement analysés à l’aune de leurs divergences, il s’agit ici au contraire de déterminer si le développement de la protection de l’environnement n’a pas contribué à des phénomènes de convergence. Pour ce faire, les systèmes énergétiques des deux pays sont étudiés dans leur globalité et à travers une perspective historique longue. Au-delà de la question nucléaire, c’est bien l’intégralité du mix énergétique et de l’évolution des consommations qui sont ici questionnées, depuis le premier choc pétrolier et le lancement des programmes nucléaires, jusqu’au début des années 2000, qui marquent le début d’un nouveau cycle pour le secteur de l’énergie à la faveur de la transition énergétique et du 3ème choc pétrolier. Sur l’ensemble de la période, la protection de l’environnement voit son rôle se renforcer jusqu’à devenir un enjeu clef et structurant, à travers notamment l’élaboration de normes et d’engagements aux échelles internationales et communautaires. Si la question nucléaire reste un élément de différenciation certain, il ressort qu’elle répond à des contraintes initiales différentes entre les deux pays et qui se résorbent progressivement. S’observe au final une certaine convergence de l’ensemble des indicateurs français et allemands entre 1973 et 2000, à laquelle la protection de l’environnement a contribué de façon certaine. / This thesis studies the integration of environmental issues into French and German energy policies between 1973 and 2000. While the two countries are generally analyzed in terms of their divergences, the question here is whether the development of protection of the environment has not contributed to the phenomena of convergence. To do this, the energy systems of the two countries are studied in their entirety and through a long historical perspective. Beyond the nuclear question, it is indeed the entire energy mix and the evolution of consumption that are questioned here, from the first oil shock and the launch of nuclear programs, until the early 2000s, Which mark the beginning of a new cycle for the energy sector. Over the period as a whole, environmental protection has become a key and structuring issue, particularly through the development of standards and commitments at international and community levels. While the nuclear issue remains a definite element of differentiation, it appears that it responds to different initial constraints between the two countries and is gradually being resolved. In the end, there is a certain degree of convergence of all French and German indicators between 1973 and 2000, to which the protection of the environment contributed with certainty.

According to Kim and Nelson (1999) and McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000), the timing of the Great Moderation occurred in U.S. at 1984Q1. Summers (2005) found out several reasons and different timings of the Great Moderation in the G-7 countries and Australia. During the past fifty years, there was a significantly sharp decline in the volatility of the real growth rate in Australia. Between 1968 and 1982, the standard deviation of the real growth rate was 1.416%¡Fhowever, between 1983 and 1996, the standard deviation of the real growth rate drastically reduced to 0.917%. Based on this obvious situation described above, we successively build up a Markov-Switching Model and Time-Varying Structural Autoregressive Model to investigate the structural break and the sources of the Great Moderation in Australia. The findings turn out that improved monetary policy and the decreased oil shock can account for the explanation of the moderation with the break date of 1984Q1.

La tesis estudia la evolución del parque de generación de energía eléctrica durante el franquismo (1940-1975). En este período comenzó la formación de un sistema unificado de explotación, y durante su desarrollo se pasó de 1.731Mw a 25.467Mw. El sistema que se denominó “autorregulación”, permitió la coexistencia de las empresas eléctricas privadas, agrupadas alrededor de UNESA y el INI en su vertiente eléctrica. Sin embargo, las decisiones y la política eléctrica, y más tarde energética, estuvo directamente influida por el gobierno. Se analiza la importancia de las fuentes (hidráulica, carbón, fuel oil, gas natura, nuclear) de energía primaria en la generación de energía eléctrica. Asimismo, se estudia, aunque no de manera exhaustiva el impacto del medio ambiente y sus consecuencias y efectos a largo plazo. Todo ello se desarrolla en el contexto histórico pertinente bajo una vertiente técnico-económica. / The thesis studies the evolution of the power generation system of electricity, during the Franco’s Regime (1940-1975). In this period, it began the construction of a unified system of exploitation, where the power installed was moved from 1.731Mw to 25.467Mw. The system was called "self regulation", allowing the coexistence of private electric companies, grouped around UNESA and the INI in its electrical aspect. However, the decisions and the power policy, and later on the energy, was directly influenced by the government. It discusses the importance of the primary energy sources (hydro, coal, fuel oil, natural gas, nuclear) in electric power generation. However, it is not intended to illustrate a comprenhensive explanation of the environmental impact and its consequences and effects long term. To sum up, all this takes place in the relevant historical context in a technical and economical perspective.