Consumer value is an important determinant of consumers’ post-use behaviour, for example satisfaction, repeat purchase and word of mouth. The existing research mainly looks at the factors associated with the product and service providers to improve consumer value. Few studies on the role of the consumer in shaping consumer value have found consumer knowledge to be an important element in shaping consumer value. Adopting critical realism, this PhD expands this area of knowledge by investigating knowledge miscalibration (i.e., the inaccuracy in subjective knowledge) as a significant antecedent of consumer value. Most of the time, consumers’ perceptions of what they think they know (i.e., subjective knowledge) has been shown to be different from what they actually know (i.e., objective knowledge). Thus, subjective knowledge is usually inaccurate. This inaccuracy in subjective knowledge relative to objective knowledge is called knowledge miscalibration. Although the effect of knowledge miscalibration on consumers’ purchasing decisions has been investigated in the consumer behaviour literature, its role in the use stage of consumption has received much less attention. The aim of this research is to examine the effect of knowledge miscalibration on product or service use, and more specifically on the value consumers derive from actually using products or services (i.e., value-in-use). In this research a critical realism paradigm is pursued, implying that reality exists in the three domains of the empirical, the actual and the real. The research starts with observing regularity in the empirical domain (i.e., consumer value) followed by imagining the causal power in the actual and the real domains (i.e., knowledge miscalibration), shaping the research question. A retroductive strategy is followed, firstly by proposing the effect of knowledge miscalibration on consumer value and secondly by conceptually and empirically testing this relationship. This research conceptualises that knowledge miscalibration influences consumer value dimensions, described as efficiency, excellence, play and aesthetics. It is suggested that underconfidence (i.e., knowledge miscalibration where subjective knowledge is deflated) and overconfidence (i.e., knowledge miscalibration where subjective knowledge is inflated) influence consumer value dimensions differently as they generate different consequences in use. Therefore, a conceptual model is developed that describes the effect of knowledge miscalibration (i.e., overconfidence and underconfidence) on the dimensions of consumer value. The empirical part of the research is designed by conducting a covariance-based study and an experimental investigation in order to gain both internal and external validity. The covariance-based investigation is conducted in the context of amazon.com online shopping. Knowledge miscalibration and consumer value dimensions are measured in this study. This study supports the negative effect of underconfidence on efficiency, excellence, play and aesthetics and the negative effect of overconfidence on play. The experimental investigation is designed in the context of prezi.com, an online dynamic presentation creation website that enables its users to move between slides, words and images during their presentations. In this study, overconfidence and underconfidence are manipulated and their effects on the dimensions of consumer value are examined. The findings of this study show that underconfidence negatively influences efficiency, excellence and aesthetics, while overconfidence negatively impacts excellence, play and aesthetics. Overall, this PhD concludes that knowledge miscalibration negatively influences the dimensions of consumer value, with the exception of overconfidence impacting efficiency. The contradictory results of the covariance-based study observed in the experimental study can be explained through its inability to account for reciprocal relationships (i.e., where consumer value dimensions also impact knowledge miscalibration) and the existence of a third variable affecting both independent and dependent variables. Furthermore, the context of the experimental study (employing a new consumption task) is proposed to be the main reason for the lack of support for the effect of underconfidence on play.

L'introduction de la dimension comportementale dans l'explication des phénomènes de fusions-acquisitions a permis de remplacer les suppositions traditionnelles de rationalité des acteurs par des suppositions comportementales potentiellement plus réalistes. La finance d'entreprise comportementale permet de traiter le phénomène de fusion-acquisition dans un cadre élargi en intégrant dans l'analyse l'hypothèse de l' irrationalité des acteurs notamment les dirigeants des acquéreurs. Le présent travail porte sur l'étude de la relation qui existe entre les biais comportementaux des dirigeants des acquéreurs tels que le biais d'excès de confiance, et les opérations d'acquisitions. Nous développons, dans un premier temps, plusieurs mesures d'excès de confiance des dirigeants. Dans un second temps, les différentes mesures développées seront mobilisées pour étudier l'effet de l'excès de confiance sur les politiques d'acquisition. Sur un échantillon d'entreprises françaises engagées dans des opérations d'acquisition durant la période 1999-2007, nous montrons que les dirigeants surconfiants des acquéreurs ont tendance à réaliser plus d'acquisition et à les effectuer avec une prime d'offre plus élevée. Cependant, ces acquisitions ne sont pas rentables pour les actionnaires des acquéreurs étant donné que les rentabilités réalisées sont négatives autour de la date d'annonce. / The introduction of the behavioral dimension in the explanation of the phenomena of mergers and acquisitions has allowed to replace the traditional assumptions of rationality of the participants by potentially more realistic behavioral assumptions. Behavioral corporate finance allows to treat the phenomenon of mergers and acquisitions in a framework widened, incorporating into the analysis the hypothesis of the irrationality of participants in particular the managers of bidders. The present work focuses on studying the relationship between the behavioural bias of managers of bidders such as overconfidence bias, and the operations of acquisition. Firstly, we develop several measures of CEO overconfidence. Secondly, these measures are used to study the effect of overconfidence on acquisitions policies. From a sample of French firms involved in operations of acquisitions during the period 1999-2007, we show that the overconfident CEO tend to make more acquisitions and to make them with a higher acquisition premium. However, these acquisitions are unprofitable for the shareholders of the bidders since the returns realized are negative around the date of announcement.

<p>Budući da rezultati u budućnosti, zavise od odluka u sadašnjosti, ispitivanje uticaja sistematskih grešaka u logici odlučivanja je od velikog značaja. Predmet ovog rada je merenje rizika usled uticaja subjektivnih faktora u procesu procena i donošenja odluka u uslovima neizvesnosti. U dokazivanju hipoteza korišćene su metode klasične i fazi logike. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da se kod većine učesnika u proceni indeksa na finansijskim tržištima zemalja u razvoju, uočava uticaj ličnih sklonosti prema preteranom otpimizmu / pesimizmu i preteranom samopouzdanju. Na osnovu rezultata istraživanja predložen je holistički model i alat za buduće procene, koji uzima u obzir koeficijent samopouzdanja kao korektivni faktor u postupku donošenja odluke. Primena modela i alata kao podrška u odlučivanju je moguća kod svih vrsta evaluacija projekata u inženjerskom odlučivanju.</p> / <p>Results in the future depend on decisions in the present. Therefore examination of sistematic errors in logic decision making has high importance. The main objective of this work is risk quantification due to subjective influence in process of evaluation and decison making under uncertainty. The methods which are used are based on classical and fuzzy logic. The research results show that bias toward over opptimism / pessimism and overconfidence in emerging markets stock exchange exist in majority cases. Based on the results of the research are suggested holistic model and tools for future assessment, which take into an account overconfidence coefficient as corective factor in decison making process. The model and tools is possible to use as decision making support for all types of evaluation projects in the engeneering decisions.</p>

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The purpose of this study was to design a valid and reliable instrument that contains original scales measuring learning resistance behaviors and cognitions, along with four other hypothetically related factors, resentment, disinterest, overconfidence, and perceived social norms. This process entailed constructing valid items for each of the five included scales; testing those scales for reliability using internal consistency analysis; and validating those scales using external criteria. The multiple scales were tested for intra-correlations to support or disconfirm a series of hypotheses reflecting the hypothetical relationships between learning resistance and the other four included factors. The resultant instrument contains five reliable scales, and the Openness Scale shows a strong negative correlation with the resistance scale, providing some criterion-related validity. Very strong positive correlations exist between all included scales, which suggest the need to provide additional indicators of discriminant validity in future validation studies on this instrument.

Data shows that many inventors continue to expend resources on their inventions even after they have received expert advice suggesting that they cease effort. Using a sample of inventors seeking outside advice from a Canadian evaluative agency, this paper examines how overconfidence, optimism, and illusion of control explain this fact. While overconfidence did not have a significant effect on inventor's decisions, illusion of control and optimism did have an effect. An additional interesting finding is that the more time people have spent working on inventions, the more likely they are to discount this expert advice.

These theses whether examine the property stock investors are overconfident or underconfident. This thesis firstly use VAR model and the empirical result shows that the property stock investors existed overconfidence investment behavior in the bull market, especially in low-price stock. However, this kind of behavior does not exist in the bear market. The result also shows that most of turnover rate are driven by market return rather than property stock return. this represents investors purchase (or sell) the property stock is caused by the market goes up (or down) rather than have perspective in the property stock. The result implied the property stock investor had speculative trading in short term. In long term, investors have insufficient faith in the real estate market. Next, this thesis use EGARCH and the result shows that the overconfidence investors¡¦ excessive trading will increase volatility, and will harm the development of industry. Finally, we discussed the main factor of investors¡¦ underconfidence in property industry, found political environment as well as long recession are the factors.

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Darbe buvo išsikeltas tikslas, įvertinti veiksnius, sąlygojančius savikliovos lygį. Tyrime dalyvavo 190 tiriamųjų iš skirtingų įmonių. Tiriamųjų amžius buvo nuo 23 iki 45 metų. Amžiaus vidurkis 29, 5 metai. Atliekant tyrimą buvo naudojamos trys užduotys. Dvi užduotys po 10 klausimų ir viena užduotis su 6 klausimais. Visose užduotyse tiriamieji turėjo pasirinkti vieną iš dviejų alternatyvų ir šalia nurodyti savo įsitikinimą, kad pasirinktas atsakymas teisingas nuo 50 % iki 100 %. Buvo išsikeltos 5 hipotezės : (1) vyrų savikliova aukštesnė priimant sprendimus nei moterų; (2) vyrai priimdami sprendimus padaro daugiau klaidų, nei moterys; (3) užimančių vadovaujamas pareigas savikliova yra aukštesnė nei nevadovaujamas pareigas užimančių žmonių; (4) žmoni��, atsakinėjančių į savo specialybei artimus klausimus, savikliova yra aukštesnė, nei žmonių, kuriems klausimai nėra artimi jų specialybei; (5) Dažniau savarankiškus sprendimus darbe priimančių žmonių savikliova aukštesnė. Rezultatai rodo, kad perdėtos savikliovos šiame tyrime nebuvo aptikta. Tačiau rezultatai parodė, kad vyrų savikliova yra didesnė nei moterų, kad vyrai, priimdami sprendimus daro daugiau klaidų nei moterys, tačiau statistiškai reikšmingo skirtumo nebuvo rasta tarp vadovaujančias ir nevadovaujančias pareigas užimančių tiriamųjų, taip pat statistiškai reikšmingo skirtumo nebuvo aptikta ir tarp tiriamųjų atsakinėjančių į savo specialybei artimus klausimus ir tiriamųjų, kurių specialybė nėra artima atsakinėjamiems... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors, which do impact for confidence level. The participants were 190 from different companies, aged 23 – 45. Each participant received three tasks. Two task consists of 10 question each, and one task of 6 questions. All three tasks required to choose one of two alternatives and then report confidence on a scale of 50 to 100 %. It was hipothesized that: (1) Confidence of males is higher level than females; (2) males make more mistakes, than females; (3) confidence of managers is higher level, than not managers; (4) people, which speciality is close to task, have higher level of confidence, than people, which speciality isnt close to task; (5) people, which are making desicions more often by themself, has higher level of confidence, than people, which dont make desicions often. Rezults shows, that overconfidence wasnt find in this recearch. Rezults shows,that males have higher confidence, than females,that males make more mistakes, than females, but statistically significant depends wasnt find between managers and no-managers, as well statistically significant depends wasnt find between people, which specialyti was close to task and people, which speciality wasnt close to task. But rezults shows, that people, which making desicions more often, have higher confidence, than people, which dont make desicion often.

Escalation of commitment is the voluntary continuation of investing resources into what appears to be a failing course of action whose outcome is uncertain. Investigation into the escalation of commitment phenomenon is important to organizations because such behavior could result in grave economic loss. This research investigates two cognitive biases that we posit lead to IT escalation of commitment, namely, attribution bias and overconfidence in an escalation decision, as well as desire to rectify past outcomes (DRPO) for its potential role as a mediator. To test our research model, 160 IT managers participated in a web-based role-playing experiment. Attribution was manipulated at two levels (internal and external), creating two treatment conditions. We posited that the participants assigned to the internal attribution condition would escalate their commitment to the failing IT project to a greater extent than participants assigned to the external attribution condition; that individuals that have a high, versus low, level of overconfidence would have a greater tendency to escalate; and that DRPO would mediate the effects of attribution and overconfidence on escalation of commitment. Attribution bias was significant at the .1 level, but in the opposite direction of what was hypothesized; overconfidence showed a significant main effect on escalation. The effect of attribution bias on escalation was significantly mediated by DRPO, but the effect of overconfidence on escalation was not mediated by DRPO. Implications of these findings for both research and practice are discussed.