<p>Syftet med studien var att undersöka förekomst av överkonfidens samt hur den varierar mellan olika typer av bedömningar och personer. Mätinstrumenten som användes var dels ett frågeformulär om invånarantal i svenska kommuner med självbedömningsfrågor om prestation, och dels det svenska frågeformuläret om General Self-Efficacy. Totalt undersöktes 65 manliga respondenter. Resultatet visade att överkonfidens inte förekom, respondenterna var realistiska i bedömningarna av den egna prestationen. Differensen mellan bedömning och prestation varierade inte mellan olika typer av bedömningar. Vidare visade resultatet inget samband mellan generell self-efficacy och differens mellan bedömning och prestation. Ett negativt samband visades dock mellan de underkonfidentas generella self-efficacy och underkonfidens. Förslag på framtida forskning är att vidare undersöka realismen i olika konfidensmätningar, och att undersöka samband mellan generell self-efficacy och överkonfidens med frågeformulär konstruerade för att generera överkonfidens.</p> / <p>The aim of the study was to investigate the existence of overconfidence and how it varies between different types of judgments and individuals. The instruments that were used were both a questionnaire about inhabitants in Swedish municipalities including self-judgmental questions of performance and the Swedish questionnaire of General Self-Efficacy. A total of 65 male respondents were examined. The result showed that overconfidence did not occur; the respondents were realistic in judgments of their own performances. The difference between judgment and performance did not vary between different types of judgments. Furthermore the result showed no correlation between general self-efficacy and difference between judgment and performance. Although a negative correlation was shown between the underconfidents’ general self-efficacy and underconfidence. Suggestions on future studies are to further investigate the realism in different confidence measurements, and to investigate correlation between self-efficacy and overconfidence with questionnaires that are designed to generate overconfidence.</p>

<p>Syftet med studien var att undersöka om grad av överkonfidens kunde variera mellan olika ämnesområden, med kontroll för svårighetsgrad. Ytterligare syfte var att undersöka hur överkonfidens varierar mellan olika bedömningstyper och personer. Mätinstrumenten som användes var dels frågeformulär om melodifestivalvinnare och nobelpristagare med självbedömningsfrågor om prestation, samt frågeformulär om extraversion och neuroticism. Totalt deltog 139 respondenter. Resultatet visade realistisk bedömning inom ämnesområdet melodifestivalvinnare och underkonfidens inom ämnesområdet nobelpristagare, med kontroll för svårighetsgrad. Det förelåg ingen skillnad mellan bedömningstyperna. Män visade överkonfidens medan kvinnor visade realistisk bedömning. Det förelåg negativa samband mellan extraversion samt neuroticism, och differens mellan bedömning och prestation. Förslag på framtida forskning är att vidare undersöka sambandet mellan extraversion och överkonfidens med frågeformulär konstruerade för att generera överkonfidens.</p> / <p>The aim of the study was to investigate if degree of overconfidence could vary between different subject fields with control for degree of difficulty. Further aim was also to investigate how overconfidence varies between different types of judgments and individuals. The instruments that were used were both a questionnaire about winners of the Swedish song contest and winners of the Nobel Prize including self-judgmental questions of performance, and a questionnaire about extraversion and neuroticism. A total of 139 respondents participated. The result showed realistic judgment in the subject field of the Swedish song contest and underconfidence in the subject field of the Nobel Prize, with control for degree of difficulty. There was no difference between the different types of judgments. Males showed overconfidence while females showed realistic judgment. There were negative correlations between extraversion and neuroticism and difference between judgment and performance. Suggestion on future studies is to further investigate the correlation between extraversion and overconfidence with questionnaires designed to generate overconfidence.  </p>

Syftet med studien var att undersöka om grad av överkonfidens kunde variera mellan olika ämnesområden, med kontroll för svårighetsgrad. Ytterligare syfte var att undersöka hur överkonfidens varierar mellan olika bedömningstyper och personer. Mätinstrumenten som användes var dels frågeformulär om melodifestivalvinnare och nobelpristagare med självbedömningsfrågor om prestation, samt frågeformulär om extraversion och neuroticism. Totalt deltog 139 respondenter. Resultatet visade realistisk bedömning inom ämnesområdet melodifestivalvinnare och underkonfidens inom ämnesområdet nobelpristagare, med kontroll för svårighetsgrad. Det förelåg ingen skillnad mellan bedömningstyperna. Män visade överkonfidens medan kvinnor visade realistisk bedömning. Det förelåg negativa samband mellan extraversion samt neuroticism, och differens mellan bedömning och prestation. Förslag på framtida forskning är att vidare undersöka sambandet mellan extraversion och överkonfidens med frågeformulär konstruerade för att generera överkonfidens. / The aim of the study was to investigate if degree of overconfidence could vary between different subject fields with control for degree of difficulty. Further aim was also to investigate how overconfidence varies between different types of judgments and individuals. The instruments that were used were both a questionnaire about winners of the Swedish song contest and winners of the Nobel Prize including self-judgmental questions of performance, and a questionnaire about extraversion and neuroticism. A total of 139 respondents participated. The result showed realistic judgment in the subject field of the Swedish song contest and underconfidence in the subject field of the Nobel Prize, with control for degree of difficulty. There was no difference between the different types of judgments. Males showed overconfidence while females showed realistic judgment. There were negative correlations between extraversion and neuroticism and difference between judgment and performance. Suggestion on future studies is to further investigate the correlation between extraversion and overconfidence with questionnaires designed to generate overconfidence.

Purpose The main purpose of this paper is to investigate overconfidence and over-optimism in the market. This leads the reader to the question, are the analysts “right” concerning their forecasts? The reader will also get to understand various and sometimes forgotten factors that affect we human beings in our decision making when it comes to investing and analysing which is also known as the behavioural finance theory. Conclusion According to the results from my tests it seems that analysts of the S&amp;P500 are exaggerated by the problem of overconfidence and the over-optimistic biases. The analysis part of this study is confirming the discussed theory of anchoring and herding. Analysts tend to “follow the stream”, by evaluate the standard deviations between forecasts and the realized outcome, as well as the indexed analysts’ consensus estimations for twenty-four months of EPS.

sing a dataset record account-level trades and orders from Taiwan Futures Exchange, we examine whether the variations of risk taking follows the overconfidence bias for four types of traders, including individuals, foreign institutions, domestic institutions, and foreign institutional traders. Our findings show that when investors are individuals and domestic institutions, the variations of trading activities for overconfident investors are greater than others. However, the results are not significant for foreign institutions and foreign institutional traders. Therefore, we demonstrate that investors take more risk following overconfidence. / Using a dataset record account-level trades and orders from Taiwan Futures Exchange, we examine whether the variations of risk taking follows the overconfidence bias for four types of traders, including individuals, foreign institutions, domestic institutions, and foreign institutional traders. Our findings show that when investors are individuals and domestic institutions, the variations of trading activities for overconfident investors are greater than others. However, the results are not significant for foreign institutions and foreign institutional traders. Therefore, we demonstrate that investors take more risk following overconfidence.

Syftet med studien var att undersöka förekomst av överkonfidens samt hur den varierar mellan olika typer av bedömningar och personer. Mätinstrumenten som användes var dels ett frågeformulär om invånarantal i svenska kommuner med självbedömningsfrågor om prestation, och dels det svenska frågeformuläret om General Self-Efficacy. Totalt undersöktes 65 manliga respondenter. Resultatet visade att överkonfidens inte förekom, respondenterna var realistiska i bedömningarna av den egna prestationen. Differensen mellan bedömning och prestation varierade inte mellan olika typer av bedömningar. Vidare visade resultatet inget samband mellan generell self-efficacy och differens mellan bedömning och prestation. Ett negativt samband visades dock mellan de underkonfidentas generella self-efficacy och underkonfidens. Förslag på framtida forskning är att vidare undersöka realismen i olika konfidensmätningar, och att undersöka samband mellan generell self-efficacy och överkonfidens med frågeformulär konstruerade för att generera överkonfidens. / The aim of the study was to investigate the existence of overconfidence and how it varies between different types of judgments and individuals. The instruments that were used were both a questionnaire about inhabitants in Swedish municipalities including self-judgmental questions of performance and the Swedish questionnaire of General Self-Efficacy. A total of 65 male respondents were examined. The result showed that overconfidence did not occur; the respondents were realistic in judgments of their own performances. The difference between judgment and performance did not vary between different types of judgments. Furthermore the result showed no correlation between general self-efficacy and difference between judgment and performance. Although a negative correlation was shown between the underconfidents’ general self-efficacy and underconfidence. Suggestions on future studies are to further investigate the realism in different confidence measurements, and to investigate correlation between self-efficacy and overconfidence with questionnaires that are designed to generate overconfidence.

This paper explains what recognition the auditor has of theoretical judgment and decision making subjects surrounding the audit process. The auditors’ judgment and decision making skills seem to be more challenged when it comes to estimating their clients’ valuations. Therefore, the audit process of fair value measures (FVM) is used to charterer the recognition more clearly. Attention to this topic is warranted for several reasons. First, FVM was implemented on the Swedish market in 2005 and is relatively recent to Swedish auditors. Second, to our knowledge no similar study, regarding the Swedish audit firms, has been conducted within this area. Third, the evidence, drawn from previous research, of what recognition the auditors have of the theoretical judgment and decision making subjects seem to be more indirect than direct and we also extend the previous research. We find, through semi-structured interviews with employees of the ‘Big four’, that both judgment and decision making are acknowledged as possible issues. However, we also find that certain areas within these two categories are unrecognized to be of immediate concern.

Investors have been shown to be driven by emotional and psychological factors. This contradicts classical financial theories, for example the Efficient Market hypothesis which states that all investors act rationally. Behavioural Finance is an area of study which describes various psychological factors which may result in irrational investor behaviour. The primary question of the study is: which factors do operating people in the financial sector consider themselves to be influenced by? The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors which affect the process of creating forecasts or making financial decisions. The study examines in addition if there is a correlation between length of investor experience and overconfidence in forecasting accuracy and investment decision making. The study includes both quantitative and qualitative analysis. The study has a basis of survey data which has been supplemented with interviews to obtain further explanation of the results. The result showed that the factors being studied had varying degrees of influence on forecasting accuracy and investment decision making. It was further found through the survey undertaken that there is a moderate correlation between length of investor experience and overconfidence. This correlation was contradicted however by interview data, in which all interview participants proposed that overconfidence decreases the more experienced an investor or analyst is. It was argued by interviewees that increased experience affords an individual more realistic insight into their own abilities. / Investerare har påvisats drivas av emotionella och psykologiska faktorer vilket motsäger klassiska finansiella teorier som den Effektiva Marknadshypotesen vilket menar att alla investerare agerar rationellt. Finansiell Psykologi är således ett område som beskriver olika psykologiska faktorer som resulterar i att investerare agerar irrationellt. Tidigare forskning har visat att olika faktorer har påverkan inom finansbranschen och för att undersöka detta på den svenska marknaden skapades denna problemformulering: Vilka faktorer anser sig verksamma inom finansbranschen påverkas av? Syftet med studien är att undersöka vilka faktorer som bland annat påverkar processen att skapa aktieprognoser eller fatta finansiella beslut. Därtill ska det undersökas om det finns korrelation mellan antal år som verksam och Övertro på egna förmågan att göra korrekta prognoser eller fatta finansiella beslut. Studien innefattar en metodtriangulering vilket innebär att det både skett tillämpning av en kvantitativ och kvalitativ metod. Studien har haft en utgångspunkt i en surveyundersökning som genomfört för att sedan kompletterats med intervjuer för att få vidare förklaring till de resultat som undersökningen gav samt ge ytterligare synvinklar och kommentarer kring ämnet. Resultatet visade att de undersökta faktorerna i olika hög grad har påverkan. Det visade sig även via surveyundersökningen att det fanns ett moderat samband mellan antal år som verksam och Övertro. Samtliga intervjuade personer hade däremot en motsägande åsikt, de ansåg att Övertro minskar med antal år som verksam och hävdade att den erfarenhet man får på vägen får en som individ att bli mer realistiskt kring sin egen förmåga.

This paper is a study how students at a high school in Falun, Sweden, estimates their performance in an upcoming math test which is then compared with the actual grade the student performed. The students who participated also answered questions related to “risk situations” to examine whether there is a correlation between how students estimate their performance in the context and their risk behavior, and if the students act like economic models assume. In agreement with previous studies, the boys in the survey tended to be overconfident in their performance. The girls in the study were neither over- nor underconfident in her performance and no significant difference in the estimation of one's performance between the sexes could be proven. The proportion of boys who considered themselves to take greater risk than class average was greater than the proportion of girls in the question. No linear relationship between estimation of performance and risk behavior or differences in risk behavior could be found between the sexes.

<p>Purpose</p><p>The main purpose of this paper is to investigate overconfidence and over-optimism in the market. This leads the reader to the question, are the analysts “right” concerning their forecasts? The reader will also get to understand various and sometimes forgotten factors that affect we human beings in our decision making when it comes to investing and analysing which is also known as the behavioural finance theory.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>According to the results from my tests it seems that analysts of the S&P500 are exaggerated by the problem of overconfidence and the over-optimistic biases. The analysis part of this study is confirming the discussed theory of anchoring and herding. Analysts tend to “follow the stream”, by evaluate the standard deviations between forecasts and the realized outcome, as well as the indexed analysts’ consensus estimations for twenty-four months of EPS.</p>