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The main concern of a construction client is to procure a facility that is able to meet its functional requirements, of the required quality, and delivered within an acceptable budget and timeframe. The cost aspect of these key performance indicators usually ranks highest. In spite of the importance of cost estimation, it is undeniably neither simple nor straightforward because of the lack of information in the early stages of the project. Construction projects therefore have routinely overrun their estimates. Cost overrun has been attributed to a number of sources including technical error in design, managerial incompetence, risk and uncertainty, suspicions of foul play and even corruption. Furthermore, even though it is accepted that factors such as tendering method, location of project, procurement method or size of project have an effect on likely final cost of a project, it is difficult to establish their measured financial impact. Estimators thus have to rely largely on experience and intuition when preparing initial estimates, often neglecting most of these factors in the final cost build-up. The decision-to-build for most projects is therefore largely based on unrealistic estimates that would inevitably be exceeded. The main aim of this research is to re-examine the sources of cost overrun on construction projects and to develop final cost estimation models that could help in reaching more reliable final cost estimates at the tendering stage of the project. The research identified two predominant schools of thought on the sources of overruns – referred to here as the PsychoStrategists and Evolution Theorists. Another finding was that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which cost performance could be assessed, leading to a large disparity in the size of overruns reported. Another misunderstanding relates to the term “cost overrun” itself. The experimental part of the research, conducted in collaboration with two industry partners, used a combination of non-parametric bootstrapping and ensemble modelling with artificial neural networks to develop final project cost models based on about 1,600 water infrastructure projects. 92% of the validation predictions were within ±10% of the actual final cost of the project. The models will be particularly useful at the pre-contract stage as they will provide a benchmark for evaluating submitted tenders and also allow the quick generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project using what-if scenarios. The original contribution of the study is a fresh thinking of construction “cost overruns”, now proposed to be more appropriately known as “cost growth” based on a synthesises of the two schools of thought into a conceptual model. The second contribution is the development of novel models of construction cost estimation utilising artificial neural networks coupled with bootstrapping and ensemble modelling.

abstract: This thesis presents a literature research analyzing the cost overrun of the construction industry worldwide, exploring documented causes for cost overrun, and documented parties responsible for the inefficiency. The analysis looks at a comparison between the metrics of construction projects in different continents and regions. Multiple publication databases were used to look into over 300 papers. It is shown that although construction demands are increasing, cost overrun on these projects is not decreasing at the same rate around the world. This thesis also presents a possible solution to improve cost overrun in the construction industry, through the use of the Best Value Performance Information Procurement System (BV PIPS). This is a system that has been utilized in various countries around the world, and has documented evidence that it may be able to alleviate the overrun occurring in the construction industry. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Construction 2017

No / Transportation infrastructure projects are prone to cost and schedule overruns. At the time of contract award, a construction contingency budget is often used to accommodate for unplanned events such as scope changes. Recent empirical research has shown that rework during construction as a result of design changes, errors and omission are the major contributors of overruns in projects. The statistical characteristics of rework, and cost and schedule overruns that are experienced from a project's contract award for 58 Australian transportation infrastructure projects are analysed. Theoretical probability distributions are fitted to the rework, cost and schedule overrun data. Goodness of fit tests are used in conjunction with probability-probability (P-P) plots to compare the sample distribution from the known theoretical distribution. A Generalised Logistic probability density function is found to describe the behaviour of cost-overruns and provides the best overall distribution fit. The best fitting distribution for schedule overruns and rework data were the Four Parameter Burr and a Johnson SB distribution, respectively. The distributions are used to calculate the probability of rework, cost and schedule overruns being experienced. A case illustration is presented and discussed to demonstrate how the derived probabilities may be utilised in practice.

Orientador: Helena Maria Andre Bolini / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia de Alimentos / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-10T11:15:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cadena_RafaelSilva_M.pdf: 587249 bytes, checksum: ffccf18dd24b727a071e97e16f675a55 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: O sorvete é uma matriz altamente complexa de alimento contendo proteínas, gordura, açúcares, ar, minerais, etc. e relações incontáveis entre os diferentes constituintes. No Brasil, o consumo per capita de sorvete é de 3,5 litros ao ano, menos de um quarto do volume dos países nórdicos, como Finlândia, Dinamarca e Noruega, onde o consumo per capita de sorvete é de, aproximadamente, 20 litros por ano, demonstrando que há espaço para o crescimento da indústria sorveteira no Brasil. Este trabalho teve como objetivo realizar análise de aceitação, análise descritiva quantitativa, análise tempointensidade e análise físico-químicas em sorvetes sabor creme tradicional e ¿light¿ comercializados na região de Campinas/SP. Os dados foram analisados estatisticamente com auxílio do programa estatístico SAS. Foi aplicado Análise de variância (ANOVA) e Teste de Média de Tukey. O Mapa de Preferência Interno foi feito através do programa XLStat. No teste de aceitação as amostras tradicionais foram melhores aceitas que as amostras ¿light¿, com exceção de uma amostra de sorvete ¿light¿. O método Análise Descritiva Quantitativa diferenciou as amostras pelos atributos cor amarela, brilho, aroma doce, aroma de chocolate branco, aroma de gordura hidrogenada vegetal, gosto doce, sabor de chocolate branco e sabor de gordura vegetal. A análise de tempo-intensidade revelou gosto amargo em uma amostra tradicional e residual amargo nas amostras ¿light¿, gosto residual doce na amostra ¿light¿ preferida pelos consumidores e intensidade de sabor de nata maior nas amostras mais aceitas. As amostras mais aceitas pelos consumidores foram os sorvetes que apresentaram nos testes descritivos mais cor amarela, aroma e gosto doce, aroma e sabor de chocolate branco e espalhabilidade. As amostras mais rejeitadas pelos consumidores foram os sorvetes com maior grau de residual amargo e menor grau de aroma e gosto doce. Em conclusão, o desenvolvimento do perfil sensorial descritivo e os dados do teste de aceitação obtidos na avaliação dos sorvetes de creme tradicional e ¿light¿ comercializados poderão auxiliar a indústria nacional de sorvetes a adotar procedimentos para a melhoria na qualidade e delinear novas estratégias de publicidade / Abstract: Ice cream is a highly complex food matrix, containing proteins, fat, sugars, air, minerals, etc. and countless interfaces between the different constituents. The ice cream per capita consumption in Brazil is 3,5 liters/year, lower than a quarter of the volume consumed in Nordic countries, as Finland, Denmark and Norway, where it is about 20 liters/year, demonstrating that it is possible for the Brazilian ice cream industry to grow. The objective of this study is to carry out acceptation analysis, quantitative-descriptive analysis, time-intensity analysis, physicalchemical analysis in traditional vanilla ice creams and light vanilla ice creams commercialized in Campinas, São Paulo. The quantitative descriptive analysis, time-intensity analysis and acceptance test data were evaluated by the analysis of variance (ANOVA), Tukey¿s Test and the principal component analysis. The results were statistically analyzed based on the statistical program SAS. The Internal Preference Map was based on XLStat program. The Quantitative Descriptive Analysis method distinguished the brand through attributes as yellow color, shininess, white chocolate aroma, hydrogenated fat, white chocolate flavour and hydrogenated fat taste. Time-intensity analysis revealed a bitter taste in a traditional sample and residual bitter taste in light samples, sweet residual taste in the consumer's favorite light sample and a bigger butterfat intensity taste on the most accepted samples. Consumer's most accepted ice creams samples were those that presented an intense yellow color, aroma and taste of sweet, aroma and taste of white chocolate and spreadability. Consumer's most rejected samples were ice creams with a higher degree of bitter residual and lower degree of aroma and taste of sweet. To conclude, the development of the descriptive sensorial profile and the data of the acceptation test obtained on the light and traditional vanilla ice creams evaluation commercialized may aid the national ice cream industry to adopt new proceedings for quality improvement and would delineate new publicity strategies / Mestrado / Consumo e Qualidade de Alimentos / Mestre em Alimentos e Nutrição

No / Understanding the cause of cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects has been a topic that has received considerable attention from academics and the popular press. Despite studies providing the essential building blocks and frameworks for cost overrun mitigation and containment, the problem still remains a pervasive issue for Governments worldwide. The interdependency that exists between ‘causes’ that lead to cost overruns materialising have largely been ignored when considering the likelihood and impact of their occurrence. The vast majority of the cost overrun literature has tended to adopt a deterministic approach in examining the occurrence of the phenomenon; in this paper a shift towards the adoption of pluralistic probabilistic approach to cost overrun causation is proposed. The establishment of probabilistic theory incorporates the ability to consider the interdependencies of causes so to provide Governments with a holistic understanding of the uncertainties and risks that may derail the delivery and increase the cost of transportation infrastructure projects. This will further assist in the design of effective mitigation and containment strategies that will ensure future transportation infrastructure projects meet their expected costs as well as the need of taxpayers. / Australian Research Council (DP160102882)

Yes / Governments in Australia place great emphasis on the development and expansion of their rail networks to improve productivity and service the increasing needs and demands from businesses and commuters. A case study approach is used to analyze the cost performance of 16 rail projects constructed by a contractor between 2011 and 2014, which ranged from AU$3.4 to AU$353 million. Findings indicate that scope changes during construction were the key contributors that lead to the amendment of each project’s original contractual value. As a result, there is a need for public and private sector asset owners to establish a cost contingency using a probabilistic rather than a deterministic approach to accommodate the potential for scope changes during construction. To improve cost certainty during the construction of rail projects, it is suggested that use of collaborative forms of procurement juxtaposed with the use of Building Information Modelling and Systems Information Modelling are implemented. The utilization of such technological and process innovations can provide public and private sector asset owners charged with delivering and maintaining their rail networks with confidence projects can be delivered within budget and are resilient to unexpected events and adaptable to changing needs, uses or capacities. / The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the Australian Research Council (DP160102882).

Over-budget projects have become more common lately in the construction industry. This can lead to negative effects such as disputes between construction operators, closure of projects and reduced construction activity. In addition, increased construction costs risk financial strain for the entrepreneurs, which can lead to bankruptcy and a lower number of entrepreneurs in the market. With the recent large cost variations for, among other things, various building materials and fuels, it is of great interest as an entrepreneur to be able to protect yourself against cost increases. Therefore, it is important that an entrepreneur knows which financial instruments are available and what an effective financial risk management process can look like.The purpose of the study is to investigate which financial instruments are available that can protect a contractor against increased costs during the contract period. In addition, the study aims to investigate how the research believes that financial risk management should look like, both in tender phase and in the construction phase.The study's theory deals with which financial instruments an entrepreneur can use to protect themself against cost increases in a contract and how financial risk management should look like. The methods that the study covers are budget contingency, index regulation, General Regulations and the impact of inflation. The study also describes the Successive Principle as a method for managing uncertainties in a project. The study's theory regarding financial risks deals, among other things, with the four steps of identification, assessment, pricing and management of risks in the tender phase. In addition, how to deal with extern risks and risks in the construction phase are described.In order to compare the theory of the study linked to the research questions, BDX Företagen AB has been studied as a case company to see how a company in the industry works regarding financial risk management and protection against cost increases. In addition, interviews with the Swedish Transport Administration have been conducted to get the client's view on the matter. After the completed case study, some shortcomings were discovered with the methods described in the theory section, as well as opportunities for improvement regarding the case company's risk management and use of protection against cost increases. These are described as findings in the study. Some of the findings of the study are:-       A better index will be needed in the industry for an entrepreneur to be able to leave a fixed price.-       The Swedish Construction index is to be shut down and there is currently no substitute.-       There is no standardized way to interpret the General Regulations, which means that the assessment will be different from project to project.The study presents a number of recommendations the case company and other similar companies in the construction industry can make use of. The recommendations are based on the theory section and the shortcomings discovered in the case study. Some of the recommendations are:- Consider inflation when calculation projects.- Implement the Successive Principle when assessing risk and opportunities.- Develop a routine to transfer the risks from the tender phase to the construction phase.Financial risk management and protection against cost increases are of great importance to an entrepreneur in the construction industry. If these things are not taken into account, the entrepreneur risks financial losses, which in the worst case can lead to bankruptcy.

Lösningen på rådande klimathot och hälsoproblem kan ligga i att omforma våra kostvanor. Genom att minska på animaliekonsumtionen och öka intaget av vegetabiliska produkter kan miljö och hälsa förbättras. För att stimulera en sådan omställning behövs fler alternativ för konsumenter. Glass tillverkas traditionellt med animaliska produkter men det finns också vegetabiliska alternativ, majoriteten av dessa importeras. Många baljväxter trivs i tempererade klimat och har en lång tradition av att odlas i Sverige. Idag används en del av de inhemska baljväxterna främst till djurfoder med dessa skulle kunna användas även i livsmedel. Syftet med arbetet var att undersökta om svenska baljväxter kan tillämpas som råmaterial vid glasstillverkning. Effekten av groddning och val av fett utvärderades med hänsyn på glassens egenskaper. De parametrar som utvärderades var proteinhalt med modifierad Kjeldahl-metod följt av HPLC, torrsubstans med ugntorkningsmetod, buffertkapacitet via titrering, pH med pH-meter, viskositet med rinntidsviskosimetri och smälthastighet med smälttidsanalys. Resultatet indikerade att svenska baljväxter kan användas som råmaterial vid glasstillverkning. Fettsort eller groddning verkade inte ha någon påverkan på glassens egenskaper. Fermenteringsmöjligheten av glassen utreddes även vilken indikerar på att fler fermenteringsförsök behövs, eventuellt med en andra mjölksyrabakterier. Ytterligare undersökningar krävs för samtliga analyser för att fastställa tillförlitliga resultat. / The solution to current climate changes and lifestyle related diseases can partly be targeted by changing our diet into a more plant based. With the same consumption level and production methods, animal products are very resource demanding. More options are needed to encourage consumers into eating a more sustainable diet. Ice cream is traditionally made from animal products but there are plant based alternatives, of which the majority is imported. Swedish leguminous are easily cultivated in temperate climates and have been traditionally grown in Sweden for many years. Some of the Swedish leguminous are mostly cultivated for feed, but it is possible to use them for human food as well. The aim of this study was to investigate if Swedish leguminous can be utilized as raw material for plant based ice cream. Germination and choice of vegetable fat was evaluated. The parameters that were analyzed were protein content by Kjeldahl with modification and HPLC, total solid content by oven drying methods, buffer capacity by titration, pH by pH-meter, viscosity by capillary methods and melting rate by melting-time analysis. The results indicate that Swedish leguminous can be used as raw material for plant based ice cream. The fat type or germination did not seem to affect the properties of the ice cream. Finally, fermentation of the Swedish leguminous based ice cream was evaluated. The result indicates that more fermentation attempts are needed, perhaps with other types of lactic acid bacteria. Further studies is needed to determine a reliable result.

nÃo hà / O objetivo de nosso trabalho à investigar as influÃncias de leitura do poeta JoÃo Cabral de Melo Neto e a possÃvel superaÃÃo atravÃs da conquista de um estilo prÃprio. Contextualizaremos a produÃÃo literÃria e intelectual do autor, trabalhando com as categorias de âcampoâ, âcontextoâ e âparatopiaâ, com base nas leituras de As regras da arte (1996), de Pierre Bourdieu e O contexto da obra literÃria (2001), de Dominique Maingueneau, respectivamente. Abordaremos as influÃncias recebidas pelo poeta na literatura e de outros campos como o das artes plÃsticas, da arquitetura, da matemÃtica, da filosofia e dos diferentes lugares em que residiu e das viagens que realizou. Utilizaremos as categorias âinfluÃnciaâ e âsuperaÃÃoâ, sistematizadas pelo crÃtico literÃrio americano Harold Bloom nas obras A angÃstia da influÃncia (1991) e Um mapa da desleitura (2003). Assim, com a idÃia de superaÃÃo, pretendemos analisar a obra A educaÃÃo pela pedra (1966) que marca a poÃtica de um JoÃo Cabral mais amadurecido por suas experiÃncias com a linguagem. Primeiro, veremos o contexto da produÃÃo em prosa e verso do autor. Em seguida, mapearemos suas influÃncias e, em um terceiro momento, investigaremos como o poeta as superou , construindo uma poÃtica prÃpria e individual. / The goal of our work is to investigate the influences reading from the poet Joao Cabral de Melo Neto and possible overruns through the conquest of a unique style. Contextualizaremos the production of literary and intellectual author, working with the "field", "context" and "paratopia" based on readings of The rules of art (1996), Pierre Bourdieu and The context of literary work (2001), Dominique Maingueneau, respectively. Abordaremos the influences received by the poet in the literature and other fields such as visual arts, architecture, mathematics, philosophy and the different places where resided and the travel he has done. Use the categories "influence" and "overrun", systematized by the American literary critic Harold Bloom works in The anguish of influence (1991) and A map of desleitura (2003). So with the idea of overcoming, we want to examine The work Education by stone (1966) which marks the poetry of John Cabral a more mature by their experiences with the language. First, we will see the context of production in prose and verse of the author. Then mapeamos their influences, and a third time, investigate how the poet surpassed, building an individual and own poetic.