Air quality forecasts are of great value since several pollutants in our environment effect both human health, global climate, vegetation, crop yields, animals, materials and acidification of forests and lakes. Air-quality forecasts help to make people aware of the presence and the quantity of pollutants, and give them a chance to protect themselves, their business and the Earth. Many different air-quality models are in daily use all over the world, providing citizens with forecasts of air quality and warnings of unhealthy air quality if recommended highest concentrations are exceeded. This study adapts the WRF meteorological model (Weather research and Forecasting model) to be a driver of the CMAQ air-quality model (models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality model). Forecasts of ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations from this coupled WRF/CMAQ modelling system are tested against observed data during a four-day period in May, 2006. The Lower Fraser Valley study area is a fertile valley surrounded by mountain chains in southwest British Columbia, Canada. The valley stretches from the Pacific coast eastwards towards the Rocky Mountains. This valley hosts more than 2 million people and it is west Canada’s fastest growing region. The Lower Fraser Valley holds a big city, Vancouver, several suburbs, numerous industries and a widespread agricultural production. During the analysed four-day period in May, a synoptic high-pressure built over the region, favoring high concentrations of pollutants as ozone and nitrogen dioxide. The created WRF/CMAQ model forecasted an acceptable magnitude of nitrogen dioxide but the daily variations are not recreated properly by the model. The WRF/CMAQ model forecasts the daily variation of ozone in a satisfying way, but the forecasted concentrations are overestimated by between 20 and 30 ppb throughout the study. Factors that could contribute to the elevated ozone concentrations were investigated, and it was found that the weather forecasting model WRF was not generating fully reliable meteorological values, which in turn hurt the air-quality forecasts. As the WRF model usually is a good weather forecasting model, the short spin-up time for the model could be a probable cause for its poor performance. / Prognoser över luftkvaliteten är mycket värdefulla, då flera luftföroreningar i vår närmiljö påverkar människans hälsa, det globala klimatet, vegetation, djur, material och bidrar till försurning av skog och vattendrag. Luftkvalitetsprognoser gör människan mer medveten om närvaron av luftföroreningar och i vilken mängd de finns. De ger människan en chans att vidta skyddsåtgärder för att skydda sig själv, sitt eventuella levebröd, och Jorden. Många olika luftkvalitetsmodeller används idag dagligdags över hela världen och förser invånare med prognoser för luftkvaliteten och varningar om koncentrationerna av föroreningar överstiger rekommenderade värden. I denna studie används väderprognosmodellen WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) för att driva luftkvalitetsmodellen CMAQ (models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality model). Prognoser av ozon- och kvävedioxidhalterna i luften från den kopplade WRF/CMAQ modellen analyseras mot observerade data under en fyra dagars period i maj, 2006. Studieområdet Lower Fraser Valley är en bördig dalgång som är omgiven av bergskedjor i sydvästra British Columbia, Kanada. Dalen sträcker sig från Stilla havskusten och österut mot Klippiga bergen. I denna dalgång bor mer än 2 miljoner människor och det är västra Kanadas snabbast växande region. Lower Fraser Valley rymmer en storstad, Vancouver, flera förorter, många industrier och även stora jordbruksområden. Den fyra dagars period i maj som analyseras karaktäriseras av ett högtrycksbetonat synoptiskt väderläge med lokala variationer, vilka tillsammans är gynnsamma för att uppmäta höga koncentrationer av luftföroreningar som ozon och kvävedioxid. Den skapade WRF/CMAQ modellen prognostiserar godtagbar magnitud hos kvävedioxid men den dagliga variationen återskapas inte av modellen. Modellen prognostiserar den dagliga variationen av ozonkoncentration på ett tillfredsställande sätt, men storleksmässigt ligger koncentrationerna en faktor 20-30 ppb för högt rakt av under hela studien. Kringliggande faktorer som kan påverka koncentrationen ozon studeras närmare och det framkommer att den meteorologiska prognosmodellen WRF inte genererar fullt tillförlitliga värden för en rättvisande luftkvalitetsprognos. Då WRF modellen vanligtvis är en bra prognosmodell kan den korta initialiseringstiden för modellen vara en trolig orsak till dess otillräckliga prestation.

Air pollution is one of the leading environmental problems of the 21st century, and the rise of global urbanization has increasingly exacerbated air pollution’s public health impact. Existing epidemiologic studies have tackled the relationship between air pollution and health from a variety of perspectives, but many areas of research remain lacking, including studies originating from developing countries, the assessment of exposure windows and sensitivity of modeling choices, and a better understanding of the climate change impacts on air pollution and health. In this dissertation, I address all of the issues mentioned above. Chapter 1 formally introduces the topics of this dissertation and summarizes background information on several major air pollutants. It then provides an overview of existing research on air pollution epidemiology and describes key knowledge gaps. In Chapter 2, we conduct a systematic review of the scientific literature for data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in China, where historical PM2.5 data are not widely available prior to 2013. Using the 574 PM2.5 measurements we identified from the literature, we detected differences in PM2.5 levels across both geographic and economic regions of China. In Chapter 3, we investigate the associations between short- and intermediate-term exposure of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and mortality in 42 counties in China from 2013 to 2015, and find evidence of significant associations up to seven days prior to exposure. In Chapter 4, we investigate the association between PM2.5 and hospitalizations in New York State using five separate exposure datasets from 2002 to 2012. We find that despite some fluctuations in effect estimates, the majority of models yielded consistently significantly harmful associations. In Chapter 5, we utilize a global chemistry-climate model to project ozone levels in 2050 under a variety of emissions scenarios and quantify the mortality impact associated with changes in ozone concentrations between 2015 and 2050 according to each scenario. We find that under climate change alone and adherence to current legislation, ozone-related deaths would increase. However, under a best-case scenario of maximum technologically feasible reductions in emissions, over 300,000 premature deaths related to ozone can be avoided. Finally, Chapter 6 summarizes the findings of this dissertation and discusses potential directions in future research. While much work remains to be done, this dissertation work takes an important step forward in closing existing knowledge gaps in the field of air pollution epidemiology. More importantly, we hope that our work sends a strong public health message on the importance of continuing research on air pollution and health.

Ce travail de thèse a porte sur l’évaluation de la qualité de l’air sur l’aéroport Paris-Charles- De-Gaulle. L’objectif était d’évaluer l’impact de l’activité aéroportuaire à l’échelle locale et régionale. Cette étude s’est centrée sur les observations à long terme des concentrations des oxydes d’azote (NOx), d’ozone (O3) et des hydrocarbures. Nous avons quantifié la contribution de l’activité aéroportuaire sur les concentrations des NOx observées sur les stations CDG-nord et CDG-sud. Les résultats ont montré que cette contribution était de 18% (12 μ g.m−3) sous un vent du sud et de 47% (25 μ g.m−3) sous un vent du nord. Cette analyse a été réalisée à partir de 3 ans de mesures (2005-2007). Les concentrations des NOx ont également été analysées à l’aide d’un modèle neuronal. Ce modèle a été construit pour estimer les concentrations des NOx en fonction de paramètres météorologiques (direction du vent, vitesse du vent, température, hauteur de la couche limite) et temporels (jour de l’année, heure du jour et la différence entre les jours de la semaine et du week-end). Le modèle a permis d’estimer les concentrations des NOx pour des scénarios ponctuels. Des campagnes de mesures ciblées sur les hydrocarbures ont été mises en oeuvre au cours de cette thèse. Elles ont permis de caractériser la spéciation des hydrocarbures émis par les moteurs d’avion. Les résultats ont montré que cette spéciation était similaire de celle observée pour les véhicules diesel. Ceci ne permet pas d’établir clairement un profil caractéristique permettant de distinguer les émissions des avions de celles de véhicules. La spéciation des hydrocarbures sur la plate-forme a également été évaluée. Les résultats ont montré que la spéciation des hydrocarbures observée sur la plate-forme est comparable à celle observée en milieu urbain et dans d’autres milieux aéroportuaires. Par ailleurs, les concentrations moyennes observées étaient typiquement de l’ordre de celles observées dans une atmosphère urbaine. L’estimation de l’impact des activités aéroportuaires à l’échelle régionale a fait l’objet d’une étude préliminaire à l’aide d’un modèle de chimie-transport, CHIMERE. Cette étude a permis d’évaluer l’étendue spatiale de l’impact de l’activité aéroportuaire pour deux épisodes. Ces épisodes correspondent à un épisode de pollution estival à l’ozone et hivernal au NO2. Les simulations ont indiqué une contribution inférieure à 5μ g.m−3 à une quinzaine de kilomètres sous le vent de l’aéroport / The work presented here deals with the evaluation of air quality at Paris-Charles-de-Gaulle airport. The objective was to evaluate the local and regional impact of airport activity. This study is centered on long term measurements of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3) and hydrocarbons concentrations. We calculated the contribution of airport activity to NOx concentrations in north and south stations. Results showed this contribution was 18% (12 μ g.m−3) from southern wind and 47 % (25 μ g.m−3) from northern wind. This analysis had been performed from 3 years data (2005-2007). NOx concentrations had been also analyzed with a neuronal model. This model was built in order to estimate concentrations according to meteorological (wind direction, wind velocity, temperature, boundary layers) and temporal parameters (day, hour, difference between week-day and week-end). The neuronal model allowed to estimate NOx concentrations for punctual scenarios. Field campaigns targeting hydrocarbons were conducted during this thesis. The speciation of hydrocarbons emitted by engine aircraft was characterized. These results showed engine aircraft hydrocarbon speciation was similar to motor diesel hydrocarbon speciation. This does not allow for the clear establishment of a characteristic profile that differentiates aircraft emissions from those of vehicles. Hydrocarbon speciation observed at the airport was also evaluated. Results showed that the hydrocarbon speciation detected at the airport was comparable to that observed within an urban environment as well as at other airports. Moreover, average concentrations were akin to those observed within an urban environment. The estimation of regional impact of airport activity was preliminary studied with a chemicaltransport model, CHIMERE. This study permitted the evaluation of the spatial extent of the impact of airport activity for two episodes. These episodes correspond to summer pollution by ozone and winter pollution by NO2. Simulations showed the contribution downwind of the airport was lower than 5 μ g.m−3 for 15 km

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology; and, (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1966. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-53). / Surface ozone concentrations were measured in the Greater Boston area from November, 1964 to December, 1965. Ozone was monitored continuosly using a Mast microcoulombmetric sensor. A chromium trioxide filter was fitted to the air inlet of the sensor in order to remove negatively interfering sulphur dioxide. Daily ozone concentrations near the surface varied from somewhat greater than 10 to less than 1 pphm by volume. The highest concentrations occurred in late spring while the lowest concentrations occurred in the winter. Such a seasonal variation would be expected if the ozone had arrived in the troposphere from the lower stratosphere. The concentration of ozone during the spring and early summer showed a much greater variability from day to day than was exhibited during the fall and winter months. / by Donald Allen Widen. / M.S.

Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography : leaves 62-65. / M.S.

Thesis: Ph. D., Joint Program in Oceanography (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 2017. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 105-114). / The circulation of air in the stratosphere is important for the distribution of radiatively-important trace gases, such as ozone and water vapor, and other chemical species, including ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons. Age of air in the stratosphere is an idealized tracer with unique mathematical properties, which we exploit to derive a theory for the relationship of tracer observations to the stratospheric circulation. We show that the meridional age gradient is a measure of the global diabatic circulation, the total overturning strength through an isentropic surface, and test this time-dependent theory in a simple atmospheric general circulation model. We apply the theory to satellite data of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6 and nitrous oxide to derive the first observationally-based estimates of the global meridional overturning circulation strength at all levels in the stratosphere. These two independent global satellite data products agree to within 5% on the strength of the diabatic circulation in the lower stratosphere. We compare to re-analyses and find broad agreement in the lower stratosphere and disagreement (~ 100%) in the upper stratosphere. To understand the relationship between the diabatic circulation and other metrics of the circulation, we calculate it in a state-of-the-science atmospheric model and in three different reanalysis data products. The variability of the global diabatic circulation is very similar to one typical circulation metric, and it is correlated with total column ozone in the tropics and in Southern hemisphere mid latitudes in both a model and in reanalysis-data comparisons. Furthermore, we develop a metric for the mean adiabatic mixing, showing that it is related to the meridional age difference and the vertical gradient of age. We calculate this metric for a range of simple model runs to determine its utility as a measure of mixing. We find very little mixing of air into the tropics in the mid-stratosphere, and the vertical structure of mixing in the lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere varies among model runs and between hemispheres. A picture of global average stratospheric circulation could thus be obtained using age of air data, given reliable long-term records. / by Marianna Katherine Linz. / Ph. D.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第20038号 / 地環博第154号 / 新制||地環||31(附属図書館) / 33134 / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎環境マネジメント専攻 / (主査)教授 梶井 克純, 准教授 真常 仁志, 准教授 田中 周平 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

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