South Africa is in the critical process of determining the profile of its power composition for the next 30 years and beyond. From the IRP2010 it seems that too much emphasis is placed on renewable energy, coal and other technologies and too little on nuclear power. In the revision of the IRP2010, the renewable portion of the energy composition has been increased substantially from 11.4 to 17.8GW, where nuclear remains on 9.6GW (DME, 2011). The purpose of this research is to investigate and compare power-generating technologies. The investigation of the different technologies is corroborated through modelling the IRP2010 planned energy mix efficiency, as well as a proposed energy mix. These models will be built using Microsoft Excel. Topics not investigated are socio-economic impacts and politics around nuclear energy in South Africa. The main finding of the research is that nuclear power is the best option for base load energy in order to meet South Africa‟s growing demand for electricity. It has the highest load factor, longest economic life, best safety record, adheres to the Kyoto protocol, uses the least fresh water and is economically competitive. It addresses all the concerns stipulated in the IRP2010 and the technology also offers benefits outside the electricity industry, such as the mining, medical, agriculture and research sectors. This versatile, reliable and powerful technology holds great benefits and has the potential to uplift the quality of life for the whole South African nation. / MSc (Nuclear Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

South Africa is in the critical process of determining the profile of its power composition for the next 30 years and beyond. From the IRP2010 it seems that too much emphasis is placed on renewable energy, coal and other technologies and too little on nuclear power. In the revision of the IRP2010, the renewable portion of the energy composition has been increased substantially from 11.4 to 17.8GW, where nuclear remains on 9.6GW (DME, 2011). The purpose of this research is to investigate and compare power-generating technologies. The investigation of the different technologies is corroborated through modelling the IRP2010 planned energy mix efficiency, as well as a proposed energy mix. These models will be built using Microsoft Excel. Topics not investigated are socio-economic impacts and politics around nuclear energy in South Africa. The main finding of the research is that nuclear power is the best option for base load energy in order to meet South Africa‟s growing demand for electricity. It has the highest load factor, longest economic life, best safety record, adheres to the Kyoto protocol, uses the least fresh water and is economically competitive. It addresses all the concerns stipulated in the IRP2010 and the technology also offers benefits outside the electricity industry, such as the mining, medical, agriculture and research sectors. This versatile, reliable and powerful technology holds great benefits and has the potential to uplift the quality of life for the whole South African nation. / MSc (Nuclear Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

O objetivo desta dissertação é testar a hipótese sobre a resposta dos consumidores devido a uma alteração no sinal econômico horário das tarifas de energia elétrica. Foram examinados e testados os efeitos sobre a forma de uso de energia elétrica de 218 consumidores da empresa AES Sul para o período de janeiro de 2012 a maio de 2016, com marco na alteração tarifária a partir de abril de 2013, proposta com base na teoria de peak load pricing (preço de pico). A experiência deste caso corrobora com as hipóteses desta teoria, no qual aponta que os preços devem guardar reação com o custo marginal de atendimento e, é maior nos horários de pico. A hipótese foi testada usando o método econométrico de diferenças em diferenças, cujos resultados foram robustos ao mostrar que a alteração do sinal econômico influenciou o comportamento dos consumidores, melhorando a forma de utilização dos ativos de energia elétrica, aumentando os lucros da firma. / The objective of this dissertation is testing the hypotheses of consumers response due to a change in the hourly economic rates given through electrical energy tariffs. The effects in the form of using electrical energy of 218 consumers of the company AES Sul, due to the amendment occurred in the economic signal from April 2013 based on peak load pricing theory, were examined and tested using their data from January 2012 to May 2016. The experience of this case corroborates with the hypotheses of this theory, which indicates that prices must be linked to supply marginal cost, which is bigger at peak hours. The presented hypotheses was tested using the differences in differences econometric method, which results turned to be robust about the change in economic signal strongly influences on consumers behaviors, improving the usage of electrical assets, arising profits.

Suppliers in competitive electricity markets regularly respond to prices that change hour by hour or even more frequently, but most consumers respond to price changes on a very different time scale, i. e. they observe and respond to changes in price as reflected on their monthly bills. This thesis examines mixed complementarity programming models of equilibrium that can bridge the speed of response gap between suppliers and consumers, yet adhere to the principle of marginal cost pricing of electricity. It develops a computable equilibrium model to estimate the time-of-use (TOU) prices that can be used in retail electricity markets. An optimization model for the supply side of the electricity market, combined with a price-responsive geometric distributed lagged demand function, computes the TOU prices that satisfy the equilibrium conditions. Monthly load duration curves are approximated and discretized in the context of the supplier's optimization model. The models are formulated and solved by the mixed complementarity problem approach. It is intended that the models will be useful (a) in the regular exercise of setting consumer prices (i. e. , TOU prices that reflect the marginal cost of electricity) by a regulatory body (e. g. , Ontario Energy Board) for jurisdictions (e. g. , Ontario) where consumers' prices are regulated, but suppliers offer into a competitive market, (b) for forecasting in markets without price regulation, but where consumers pay a weighted average of wholesale price, (c) in evaluation of the policies regarding time-of-use pricing compared to the single pricing, and (d) in assessment of the welfare changes due to the implementation of TOU prices.

Suppliers in competitive electricity markets regularly respond to prices that change hour by hour or even more frequently, but most consumers respond to price changes on a very different time scale, i. e. they observe and respond to changes in price as reflected on their monthly bills. This thesis examines mixed complementarity programming models of equilibrium that can bridge the speed of response gap between suppliers and consumers, yet adhere to the principle of marginal cost pricing of electricity. It develops a computable equilibrium model to estimate the time-of-use (TOU) prices that can be used in retail electricity markets. An optimization model for the supply side of the electricity market, combined with a price-responsive geometric distributed lagged demand function, computes the TOU prices that satisfy the equilibrium conditions. Monthly load duration curves are approximated and discretized in the context of the supplier's optimization model. The models are formulated and solved by the mixed complementarity problem approach. It is intended that the models will be useful (a) in the regular exercise of setting consumer prices (i. e. , TOU prices that reflect the marginal cost of electricity) by a regulatory body (e. g. , Ontario Energy Board) for jurisdictions (e. g. , Ontario) where consumers' prices are regulated, but suppliers offer into a competitive market, (b) for forecasting in markets without price regulation, but where consumers pay a weighted average of wholesale price, (c) in evaluation of the policies regarding time-of-use pricing compared to the single pricing, and (d) in assessment of the welfare changes due to the implementation of TOU prices.

Förutom i Stockholm uppvisar den lokala kollektivtrafiken en nedåtgående trend i trafikutvecklingen, trots en årlig subvention om 10 miljarder kronor. Drift av lokal kollektivtrafik i mindre och medelstora städer baserat på samhällsekonomiska kriterier skulle bl a medföra en prispolitik som kräver en subvention om drygt 50%. Att detta ungefär motsvarar rådande subventioneringsgrad är dock inte ett tecken på att kollektivtrafiken bedrivs på samhällsekonomisk grundval, eftersom det visar sig att prisstrukturen är grovt suboptimal. Vad gäller investeringspolitik framgår det dessutom av en enkätundersökning att trafikhuvudmännen inte använder samhällsekonomisk kalkyl (CBA) vid planering och drift av lokal kollektivtrafik, så syftet med avhandlingen är att visa på de möjligheter till förbättringar av den lokala kollektivtrafiken som skulle uppstå om den bedrevs på samhällsekonomisk grundval. Operationaliseringen av teorin kräver först att några grundfrågor för en tillämpning av allmän välfärdsekonomisk teori på bedrivande av lokal kollektivtrafik benas upp. Det är väsentligt att göra en åtskillnad av utbudet av kollektiva transporttjänster mellan ett grundläggande utbud som är att betrakta som ”merit goods” och övrigt utbud där nyttan på normalt sätt mäts genom konsumenternas betalningsvilja. I en omfattande fallstudie av den lokala kollektivtrafiken i Linköping exemplifieras vad effekten blir, dels av vissa utbudsförändringar, som har sållats fram i strävan mot systemoptimum, dels av ändamålsenlig efterfrågestyrning, och med CBA beräknas vad nettoresultatet kan tänkas bli. Om förbättringar som ger lika stor nettonytta som i Linköping kan göras hos flertalet andra trafikhuvudmän med en samhällsekonomisk ansats, skulle den totala nettonyttan aggregerad över hela Sverige vara betydligt större än vad vissa av de omskrivna jätteprojekten inom kollektivtrafiksektorn kan prestera. / Except in Stockholm, local public transport shows a declining trend in spite of an annual total subsidy from the County councils of 10 billion SEK. This is fair enough. Running local bus services in small and medium sized towns in accordance with welfare economic criteria implies among other things a pricing policy which requires subsidization just above 50%, which happens to be the same as the present degree of tax-financing. However, this is just a coincidence, and not a mark of optimality, because it is found that the structure of fares is clearly suboptimal. As regards investment policy it is furthermore confirmed by a questionnaire survey that neither the principals (the County councils) nor their agents (bus companies) use cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for the design of local public transport systems, so the purpose of the thesis is to demonstrate the potential improvements of public transport in small and medium sized towns run on the basis of welfare economics. The operationalization of the welfare economic foundations requires some theoretical reorientation in the particular case of local public transport. A fundamental division of the supply is made between the “merit goods” part of total supply and the “normal goods” part, where benefit is measured by the individual willingness-to-pay. In a case study of the bus transport system of Linköping a number of generally applicable minor improvements are found by the welfare economic approach, which aggregated to the national level would imply a total net benefit which more spectacular projects in the public transport sector rarely can present.

O objetivo desta dissertação é testar a hipótese sobre a resposta dos consumidores devido a uma alteração no sinal econômico horário das tarifas de energia elétrica. Foram examinados e testados os efeitos sobre a forma de uso de energia elétrica de 218 consumidores da empresa AES Sul para o período de janeiro de 2012 a maio de 2016, com marco na alteração tarifária a partir de abril de 2013, proposta com base na teoria de peak load pricing (preço de pico). A experiência deste caso corrobora com as hipóteses desta teoria, no qual aponta que os preços devem guardar reação com o custo marginal de atendimento e, é maior nos horários de pico. A hipótese foi testada usando o método econométrico de diferenças em diferenças, cujos resultados foram robustos ao mostrar que a alteração do sinal econômico influenciou o comportamento dos consumidores, melhorando a forma de utilização dos ativos de energia elétrica, aumentando os lucros da firma. / The objective of this dissertation is testing the hypotheses of consumers response due to a change in the hourly economic rates given through electrical energy tariffs. The effects in the form of using electrical energy of 218 consumers of the company AES Sul, due to the amendment occurred in the economic signal from April 2013 based on peak load pricing theory, were examined and tested using their data from January 2012 to May 2016. The experience of this case corroborates with the hypotheses of this theory, which indicates that prices must be linked to supply marginal cost, which is bigger at peak hours. The presented hypotheses was tested using the differences in differences econometric method, which results turned to be robust about the change in economic signal strongly influences on consumers behaviors, improving the usage of electrical assets, arising profits.

O objetivo desta dissertação é testar a hipótese sobre a resposta dos consumidores devido a uma alteração no sinal econômico horário das tarifas de energia elétrica. Foram examinados e testados os efeitos sobre a forma de uso de energia elétrica de 218 consumidores da empresa AES Sul para o período de janeiro de 2012 a maio de 2016, com marco na alteração tarifária a partir de abril de 2013, proposta com base na teoria de peak load pricing (preço de pico). A experiência deste caso corrobora com as hipóteses desta teoria, no qual aponta que os preços devem guardar reação com o custo marginal de atendimento e, é maior nos horários de pico. A hipótese foi testada usando o método econométrico de diferenças em diferenças, cujos resultados foram robustos ao mostrar que a alteração do sinal econômico influenciou o comportamento dos consumidores, melhorando a forma de utilização dos ativos de energia elétrica, aumentando os lucros da firma. / The objective of this dissertation is testing the hypotheses of consumers response due to a change in the hourly economic rates given through electrical energy tariffs. The effects in the form of using electrical energy of 218 consumers of the company AES Sul, due to the amendment occurred in the economic signal from April 2013 based on peak load pricing theory, were examined and tested using their data from January 2012 to May 2016. The experience of this case corroborates with the hypotheses of this theory, which indicates that prices must be linked to supply marginal cost, which is bigger at peak hours. The presented hypotheses was tested using the differences in differences econometric method, which results turned to be robust about the change in economic signal strongly influences on consumers behaviors, improving the usage of electrical assets, arising profits.

Toppeffekter används av elnätsbolag för att dimensionera elnätet, vilket blir allt viktigare för varje år. Fler och fler invånare och företag ökar sin elkonsumtion och förväntar sig en driftsäker och stabil elförsörjning. Det finns två vanliga metoder att beräkna toppeffekter. Första sättet är Velanders formel som är en enkel metod för att uppskatta toppeffekter. Velanders formel behöver bara årsenergi och vetskap om kundkategori med tillhörande Velanderkonstanter för beräkning av uppskattad toppeffekt. Sedan finns den mer komplexa typkurvemetoden som behöver flera olika parametrar, t.ex. graddagtal, dygnsmedeltemperatur, gränssannolikhet och kundkategori. Detta examensarbete undersöker en enkel metod för att ta fram konstanter till Velanders formel för beräkning av toppeffekter. Detta genomfördes med hjälp av regressionsanalys av historiska elanvändningsdata från Mälarenergi Elnät AB:s (MEE) kunder från 12 olika kundkategorier. Detta på grund av att MEE önskade att utveckla en metod för att ta fram konstanter till Velanders formel baserad på historiska elanvändningsdata. Metoden för att ta fram konstanter till Velanders formel går ut på att med hjälp av MATLAB utföra en regressionsanalys på simulerade kundgrupper skapade från timvis historiska elanvändningsdata. En kurva baserad på Velanders formel tas sedan fram som beskriver den övre gränsen till toppeffekterna för de simulerade kundgrupperna. Från kurvan fås sedan de Velanderkonstanter som söks. Resultaten av den undersökta metoden presenteras i form av grafer och tabeller för tre utvalda kundkategorier. Alla kategorier och deras resultat finns som bilagor till rapporten. Valideringen av resultaten och metoden gjordes med hjälp av korsvalidering och jämförelse mot heterogena simulerade kundgrupper. Känslighetsanalysen visar att den undersökta metoden var känslig för flera faktorer såsom kategorisering av kunder, tidsspann för historiska elanvändningsdata, antal simulerade kundgrupper och kundantal. Med tillräcklig dimensionering av dessa faktorer bedömdes metoden vara användbar. Resultaten visade på att de framtagna Velanderkonstanterna gav en god uppskattning av toppeffekter för de kundkategorier som undersökts. Jämförelse av de uppskattade toppeffekterna och de observerade visade på att det fanns en viss differens mellan dem. Detta var dock förväntat eftersom de uppskattade toppeffekterna ska avspegla den övre toppeffektsgränsen. / This degree project has examined a simple method aiming to obtain coefficients for Velanders formula which purpose is to calculate peak loads. This was done by using regression analysis on historical data on consumption of electricity from 12 different customer categories acquired from Mälarenergi Elnät AB (MEE). The reason being that MEE wanted to examine a method which could obtain coefficients for Velanders formula based on hourly historical electricity consumption data. The method for obtaining Velander coefficients uses MATLAB to do regression analysis on simulated customer groups, created from hourly historical electricity consumption data. The Velander coefficients are then obtained from a regression curve based on Velanders formula. Results from the evaluation of the method is presented with the help of plots and tables for three chosen customer categories. Validation of the method was done by cross-validation and comparison against heterogeneous customer groups. Sensitivity analysis showed the examined method to be sensitive to several factors such as categorization of customers, the timespan of historical electricity consumption data, the number of simulated customer groups that were used and how many customers a category contained. By dimensioning these factors carefully, the method examined was assessed to be viable. The results indicated that the obtained Velander coefficients gave a good estimation of the peak loads for the chosen customer categories. Comparison between the estimated and observed peak loads indicated that there was a certain difference between them. This was to be expected since the estimated peak loads are to reflect the upper peak load limit.

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