The aim of this study is to examine classical Dow-strategies, Dogs of the Dow and Foolish Four relative to each other and OMXS30GI in order to test if promises of substantial returns would be kept on the Swedish stock market during the period 2002-2019. Our empirical findings show no statistically significant excess-return generated by the Foolish Four-strategy over neither the Dogs of the Dow-strategy nor OMXS30GI. Furthermore, we found that the Dogs of the Dow-strategy produced a statistically significant excess-return over benchmark OMXS30GI, however excess-return does not remain after excluding years of great market turmoil.

Children today have difficulty in finding places to play in the modern Swedish welfare society. Spontaneous play in the streets has almost vanished. When parents drive their children to different activities and institutions where the children are supervised and controlled by adults, the children are under constant surveillance. It’s not children or children’s desire to play that has changed, it is society. Despite this surveillance children still manage to create their own places. The aim of this study is to investigate when children create their own places in the preschool in a structured surveillance society as well as to find out what kind of materials they need to create such places. To be able to find out the answers to these questions I performed a mini ethnographic study in a preschool where I observed children. I followed the ethics rules of the Swedish research council. Ideas and concepts that I used were places for children – children’s places, breaking rules as a way to enter play, affordance as well as the theory of prospect refuge. Through these it was possible for me to identify and analyze when children were creating their own places as well as what materials that they used. The results show that children are capable of creating their own places, despite being under constant surveillance in the preschool. They managed to do so both indoors and outdoors. They both created their own places as well as used “places for children” as their own. By creating children’s places of their own, they get to break rules and use creativity as well as learn with their whole bodies, which benefits both their experience of joy as well as their learning.

No description available.

[pt] Baseado na Teoria Cumulativa da Perspectiva, três ensaios são apresentados nessa tese. Todos os três trabalhos estão conectados pelo entendimento aprofundado da Função de Ponderação de Probabilidade e suas conexões cenários de decisão sob risco. O primeiro ensaio é um trabalho empírico utilizando a teoria da perspectiva para analisar o viés do efeito de enquadramento em decisões de investimentos em certos países emergentes: Brasil, China, Russia, México e África do Sul. Em todos os casos, identificamos empiricamente o poder preditivo da teoria da perspectiva para os retornos dos ativos. Também encontramos que a função de ponderação de probabilidade é o fator mais importante para o poder preditivo. O segundo ensaio é um trbalho teórico propondo uma axiomatização da função de ponderação de Goldstein-Einhorn. Desde 1987, a conhecida função de ponderação de Goldstein-Einhorn é largamente utilizada em trabalhos em muitos artigos empíricos e teóricos. Richard Gonzalez e GeorgeWu propuseram uma axiomatização para esta função em 1999. O trabalho que apresentamos analisa a condição de preferência dos autores e encontra uma família maior de funções de ponderação. Fornecemos exemplos úteis e sugerimos uma nova condição de preferência que é necessária e suficiente para a função de Goldstein- Einhorn. Esta nova condição de prefer6encia simula o comportamento das pessoas em situações que envolvem atitutes arriscadas. O terceiro ensaio propõe uma medida para as características psicológicas chamadas de atratividade e discriminabilidade, no contexto das funções de ponderação de probabilidades. Esse conceitos são importantes para nos ajudar a entender como algumas emoções influenciam nosso comportamento. Propomos medidas no sentido absoluto e relativo e as comparamos com alguns exemplos particulares encontrados na literatura. Nossos resultados são consistentes com o entendimento qualitativo encontrado na literatura e fornece um entendimento quantitativo para ele. / [en] Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory, three essays are presented in this thesis. All three works are linked by a deeper understanding of Probability Weighting Functions and its connection with decisions in a risk scenario. The first essay is an empirical work using prospect theory to analyze the narrow framing bias in investment decisions in certain emerging countries: Brazil, China, Russia, Mexico and South Africa. In all cases, we empirically identified the predictive power of prospect theory for stock returns. We also found that the probability weighting function is the most important factor in this predictive power. The second essay is a theoretical work proposing an axiomatization for the Goldstein-Einhorn weighting function. Since 1987, the well known Goldstein- Einhorn Weighting Function is widely used in many empirical and theoretical papers. Richard Gonzalez and George Wu proposed an axiomatization for it in 1999. The present work analyses their preference condition and finds a bigger family of weighting functions. We provide useful examples and suggest a new preference condition which is necessary and sufficient for Goldstein-Einhorn function. This new preference condition simulates the behavior of people in risky attitudes. The third essay propose a measure to evaluate the psychological features of attractiveness and discriminability in the context of probability weighting functions. These concepts are important to help us understand how some emotions drive our behavior. We propose measures in absolute and in the relative sense and compare with some particular cases found in the literature. Our findings are consistent with the qualitative understanding widespread in the literature and provide a quantitative analysis for it.

No description available.

[pt] O objetivo desse trabalho é observar, com base no modelo de Chang, Cheng e Khorana (2000), se há indícios de que houve efeito manada no mercado de ações brasileiro no período que compreende entre 2010 e 2015. Esse período é marcado por forte instabilidade política e econômica do Brasil e pode-se notar uma grande volatilidade no índice Bovespa. Essa dissertação de mestrado tem por objetivo avaliar, sob os aspectos de finanças comportamentais, se há ou não indícios de que houve algum movimento de efeito manado em um período recente no mercado de ações brasileiro. Outros estudos já testaram o modelo de Cheng et. Al em outros mercados e no próprio mercado brasileiro em períodos diferentes. Após a análise dos resultados do modelo no período citado, não foi possível encontrar indícios de efeito manada no mercado brasileiro. / [en] The aim of this study is to observe, based on the model of Chang, Cheng and Khorana (2000), if there is evidence that there were herding in the Brazilian stock market in the period that goes from 2010 to 2015. This period was marked by a strong political and economic instability and it is possible to notice a great volatility in the Bovespa index. This dissertation aims at evaluating, under the behavioral finance aspects, whether or not there is any indication that there has been any movement of herding in a recent period in the Brazilian stock market. Other studies have already tested the model of Cheng et. Al in other markets and in the Brazilian market itself in different periods. After analyzing the results of the model in the mentioned period, it was not possible to find evidence of a herd behavior in the Brazilian market.

Магистерская диссертация посвящена анализу специфики инвестиционной деятельности на финансовом рынке и формированию наиболее оптимальной структуры инвестиционного портфеля. Целью исследования является формирование инвестиционных портфелей для разных возрастных групп частных инвесторов. Научной новизной исследования являются моделирование инвестиционных портфелей с заданными критериями оптимизации, авторские рекомендации по инвестированию, дополнение классификации рисков инвестирования на финансовом рынке, выделение критериев выбора биржевого брокера. / The master's thesis is devoted to the analysis of specifics of investment activity in the financial market and formation of the most optimal theoretical base for trading on stock exchange. The purpose of the study is to form invest portfolio for different age groups of private investors. The scientific novelty of the research is the modeling of investment portfolios with specified optimization criteria, author's recommendations for investment, addition of a classification of investment risks in the financial market, and selection of criteria for choosing a stock broker.

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine under orders of Vladimir Putin. The invasion subsequently inspired a debate on the rationality behind this decision. The existing academic debate into the decision behind the invasion has identified both external and internal factors which can explain why this specific action may have been taken but has omitted a nuanced answer on clarifying the extent of Putin’s military actions. Prospect theory dictates that people under conditions of risk are more likely to be risk acceptant if they have experienced the context leading up to the decision to be one in which they have experienced losses. This thesis aims to explore how prospect theory can contribute to an understanding of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine by employing a congruence analysis case-study approach. It concludes that the principles of prospect theory provide a substantiated explanation as to why Putin chose a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, demonstrating that Putin found himself in a domain of losses and opted for the option with the highest outcome uncertainty. Moreover, prospect theory also adds nuance to the existing academic debate by defining rationality as a scale with intervening factors, demonstrating that Putin’s decision-making rationality may have been impacted by his framing of losses.

No description available.

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common healthcare-associated infection in the intensive care unit, resulting in a high burden of illness, mortality and increased cost. The literature around the cost-effectiveness of probiotics in prevention of health-care associated infections has not been previously well-described, and a definitive health economic evaluation alongside a well-designed randomized control trial assessing probiotic prophylaxis has not been previously performed. This thesis consists of 3 separate manuscripts (with 2 published in peer-reviewed journals and 1 pending). The theme of this thesis was to: (1) describe the literature about the cost-effectiveness of probiotics in hospitalized patients in preventing healthcare-associated infections; (2) design a protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a randomized control trial (RCT) examining probiotic prophylaxis of VAP; and then (3) perform and analyze the health economic evaluation presented in the protocol. The first component of this thesis is a systematic review of probiotic prophylaxis of healthcare-associated infections in hospitalized patients. We performed an extensive search including multiple databases which found 7 studies. Probiotics demonstrated favourable cost-effectiveness in 6 of 7 (86%) economic evaluations, with 3 studies being manufacturer-supported, all suggesting cost-effectiveness. Certainty of cost-effectiveness evidence was very low due to risk of bias, imprecision and inconsistency using the GRADE approach. Hence further RCTs with economic evaluations were stated as a solution. The second component of this thesis is a study protocol for an economic evaluation alongside the Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (PROSPECT), which assessed the efficacy of probiotic prophylaxis in the prevention of healthcare-associated infections (specifically VAP). The third component of this thesis is the cost-effectiveness analysis performed utilizing the individual patient data from PROSPECT to produce the economic evaluation (E-PROSPECT). As of the date of thesis submission, PROSPECT is still pending publication, and hence E-PROSPECT is also pending analysis and publication. However, I have prepared a draft manuscript (along with figures and tables) that will be produced at the conclusion of E-PROSPECT for thesis committee review. / Thesis / Master of Health Sciences (MSc) / Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common healthcare-associated infection in the intensive care unit, resulting in a high burden of illness, mortality and increased cost. The literature around the cost-effectiveness of probiotics in prevention of health-care associated infections has not been previously well-described, and a definitive health economic evaluation alongside a well-designed randomized control trial assessing probiotic prophylaxis has not been previously performed. This thesis consists of 3 separate manuscripts (with 2 published in peer-reviewed journals and 1 pending). The theme of this thesis was to: (1) describe the literature about the cost-effectiveness of probiotics in hospitalized patients in preventing healthcare-associated infections; (2) design a protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a randomized control trial (RCT) examining probiotic prophylaxis of VAP; and then (3) perform and analyze the health economic evaluation presented in the protocol. The first component of this thesis is a systematic review of probiotic prophylaxis of healthcare-associated infections in hospitalized patients. We performed an extensive search including multiple databases which found 7 studies. Probiotics demonstrated favourable cost-effectiveness in 6 of 7 (86%) economic evaluations, with 3 studies being manufacturer-supported, all suggesting cost-effectiveness. Certainty of cost-effectiveness evidence was very low due to risk of bias, imprecision and inconsistency using the GRADE approach. Hence further RCTs with economic evaluations were stated as a solution. The second component of this thesis is a study protocol for an economic evaluation alongside the Probiotics to Prevent Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (PROSPECT), which assessed the efficacy of probiotic prophylaxis in the prevention of healthcare-associated infections (specifically VAP). The third component of this thesis is the cost-effectiveness analysis performed utilizing the individual patient data from PROSPECT to produce the economic evaluation (E-PROSPECT). As of the date of thesis submission, PROSPECT is still pending publication, and hence E-PROSPECT is also pending analysis and publication. However, I have prepared a draft manuscript (along with figures and tables) that will be produced at the conclusion of E-PROSPECT for thesis committee review.