abstract: Public risk communication (i.e. public emergency warning) is an integral component of public emergency management. Its effectiveness is largely based on the extent to which it elicits appropriate public response to minimize losses from an emergency. While extensive studies have been conducted to investigate individual responsive process to emergency risk information, the literature in emergency management has been largely silent on whether and how emergency impacts can be mitigated through the effective use of information transmission channels for public risk communication. This dissertation attempts to answer this question, in a specific research context of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. Methodologically, a prototype agent-based model is developed to examine the research question. Along with the specific disease spread dynamics, the model incorporates individual decision-making and response to emergency risk information. This simulation framework synthesizes knowledge from complexity theory, public emergency management, epidemiology, social network and social influence theory, and both quantitative and qualitative data found in previous studies. It allows testing how emergency risk information needs to be issued to the public to bring desirable social outcomes such as mitigated pandemic impacts. Simulation results generate several insightful propositions. First, in the research context, emergency managers can reduce the pandemic impacts by increasing the percent of state population who use national TV to receive pandemic information to 50%. Further increasing this percent after it reaches 50% brings only marginal effect in impact mitigation. Second, particular attention is needed when emergency managers attempt to increase the percent of state population who believe the importance of information from local TV or national TV, and the frequency in which national TV is used to send pandemic information. Those measures may reduce the pandemic impact in one dimension, while increase the impact in another. Third, no changes need to be made on the percent of state population who use local TV or radio to receive pandemic information, and the frequency in which either channel is used for public risk communication. This dissertation sheds light on the understanding of underlying dynamics of human decision-making during an emergency. It also contributes to the discussion of developing a better understanding of information exchange and communication dynamics during a public emergency and of improving the effectiveness of public emergency management practices in a dynamic environment. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Public Administration 2012

Submitted by admin tede (tede@pucgoias.edu.br) on 2018-11-19T16:59:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 GISELLE ANGÉLICA MOREIRA DE SIQUEIRA.pdf: 1650143 bytes, checksum: 0a85747b640c1ee6d3c2dc446dececf7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-19T16:59:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GISELLE ANGÉLICA MOREIRA DE SIQUEIRA.pdf: 1650143 bytes, checksum: 0a85747b640c1ee6d3c2dc446dececf7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-19 / SIQUEIRA, Giselle Angelica Moreira de. Epidemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in the state of Goiás/Brazil: cases and deaths. Dissertation (MSc in Environmental Sciences) – Catholic University of Goiás, Goiânia, 2013. Between late March and early April 2009, were the first reported cases of human infection caused by a new viral subtype Influenza A (H1N1) in Southern California and near San Antonio, Texas, USA, and then in Mexico and Canada. Until July 6, 2009, 905 cases were confirmed by the Ministry of Health, with reports of 23 states and the Federal District. This study described the profile of confirmed cases and deaths affected by Influenza A ( H1N1 ) in 2009 in the state of Goias and Brazil through a descriptive ecological study of confirmed cases and deaths affected by Influenza A virus (H1N1) 2009 in the State of Goias and Brazil between epidemiological weeks 16 th to 52 th, variables of research Influenza record, feeding SINAN Influenza Web were selected such as epidemiological week, age, gender, education, signs and symptoms, comorbidities, vaccination status, hospitalizations and evolution. Among the total number of cases reported during the epidemic , more than 45% were confirmed Influenza A (H1N1) in Goiás and in Brazil , with 14.9% and 3.9% subsequently died respectively. Females were predominant, those over 6 % were pregnant. The age range was found between 15 and 45 years, with the primary and secondary school levels observed schooling. Among the signs and symptoms , more than 95% of cases and deaths had fever, cough and dyspnoea, less than 30% had comorbid conditions, the occurrence of hospitalizations of cases was 96% and 45% in Goiás in Brazil, while hospitalization those who subsequently died was above 96%, less than 14% of cases and deaths have taken the vaccine against influenza (H1N1). It was concluded that it was possible to know the profile of cases and deaths from socio demographic and clinical characteristics during the epidemic period Influenza (H1N1) 2009 in Goias and Brazil, many lessons were learned that will assist in the consolidation of plans to tackle the unusual situations of epidemic and pandemic character and guide the development of public policies that will strengthen the surveillance system of disease, health care, implementation of laboratory diagnosis, mass vaccination and personal protection and respiratory hygiene network. / SIQUEIRA, Giselle Angélica Moreira de. Epidemia da Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 no estado de Goiás/Brasil: casos e óbitos. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências Ambientais) – Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Goiás, Goiânia, 2013. Entre o final de março e começo de abril de 2009, foram notificados os primeiros casos de infecção humana causada por um novo subtipo viral Influenza A (H1N1), no sul da Califórnia e próximo de San Antonio, no Texas, Estados Unidos, e, em seguida, no México e Canadá. Até o dia 06 de julho de 2009, 905 casos foram confirmados pelo Ministério da Saúde, com notificações de 23 estados e do Distrito Federal. Neste estudo foi descrito o perfil dos casos confirmados e óbitos acometidos por Influenza A (H1N1) em 2009 no Estado de Goiás e Brasil por meio de um estudo ecológico descritivo dos casos confirmados e óbitos acometidos pelo vírus Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 no Estado de Goiás e Brasil entre as semanas epidemiológicas 16ª a 52ª, foram selecionadas variáveis da ficha de investigação de Influenza, que alimenta o SINAN Influenza Web tais como semana epidemiológica, faixa etária, gênero, escolaridade, sinais e sintomas, comorbidades, situação vacinal, hospitalizações e evolução. Dentre o total de casos notificados durante a epidemia, mais de 45% foram confirmados por Influenza A (H1N1) em Goiás e no Brasil, sendo que 14,9% e 3,9% evoluíram para o óbito respectivamente. O gênero feminino foi predominante, destas mais de 6% eram gestantes. A faixa etária encontrada foi entre 15 a 45 anos, sendo o ensino médio e fundamental os níveis de escolaridade constatados. Dentre os sinais e sintomas, mais de 95% dos casos e óbitos apresentaram febre, tosse e dispneia, menos de 30% apresentaram comorbidades, a ocorrência de hospitalizações dos casos foi de 96 % em Goiás e 45% no Brasil, enquanto que a hospitalização dos que evoluíram para o óbito foi acima de 96%, menos de 14% dos casos e óbitos tomaram a vacina contra a Influenza (H1N1). Concluiu-se que foi possível conhecer o perfil de casos e óbitos a partir das características sócio demográficas e clínicas durante o período epidêmico da Influenza (H1N1) 2009 em Goiás e no Brasil, foram aprendidas muitas lições que auxiliarão na consolidação de planos de enfrentamento a situações inusitadas de caráter epidêmico e pandêmico e norteará a construção de políticas públicas que fortalecerá o sistema de vigilância da doença, da rede de atenção à saúde, implementação de diagnóstico laboratorial, vacinação massiva e medidas de proteção individual e higiene respiratória.

L'augmentation de la taille des jeux de données est une problématique croissante en épidémiologie. La cohorte CoPanFlu-France (1450 sujets), proposant une étude du risque d'infection par la grippe H1N1pdm comme une combinaison de facteurs très divers en est un exemple. Les méthodes statistiques usuelles (e.g. les régressions) pour explorer des associations sont limitées dans ce contexte. Nous comparons l'apport de méthodes exploratoires data-driven à celui de méthodes hypothesis-driven.Une première approche data-driven a été utilisée, évaluant la capacité à détecter des facteurs de l'infection de deux méthodes de data mining, les forêts aléatoires et les arbres de régression boostés, de la méthodologie " régressions univariées/régression multivariée" et de la régression logistique LASSO, effectuant une sélection des variables importantes. Une approche par simulation a permis d'évaluer les taux de vrais et de faux positifs de ces méthodes. Nous avons ensuite réalisé une étude causale hypothesis-driven du risque d'infection, avec un modèle d'équations structurelles (SEM) à variables latentes, pour étudier des facteurs très divers, leur impact relatif sur l'infection ainsi que leurs relations éventuelles. Cette thèse montre la nécessité de considérer de nouvelles approches statistiques pour l'analyse des grands jeux de données en épidémiologie. Le data mining et le LASSO sont des alternatives crédibles aux outils conventionnels pour la recherche d'associations. Les SEM permettent l'intégration de variables décrivant différentes dimensions et la modélisation explicite de leurs relations, et sont dès lors d'un intérêt majeur dans une étude multidisciplinaire comme CoPanFlu. / The increasing size of datasets is a growing issue in epidemiology. The CoPanFlu-France cohort(1450 subjects), intended to study H1N1 pandemic influenza infection risk as a combination of biolo-gical, environmental, socio-demographic and behavioral factors, and in which hundreds of covariatesare collected for each patient, is a good example. The statistical methods usually employed to exploreassociations have many limits in this context. We compare the contribution of data-driven exploratorymethods, assuming the absence of a priori hypotheses, to hypothesis-driven methods, requiring thedevelopment of preliminary hypotheses.Firstly a data-driven study is presented, assessing the ability to detect influenza infection determi-nants of two data mining methods, the random forests (RF) and the boosted regression trees (BRT), ofthe conventional logistic regression framework (Univariate Followed by Multivariate Logistic Regres-sion - UFMLR) and of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), with penaltyin multivariate logistic regression to achieve a sparse selection of covariates. A simulation approachwas used to estimate the True (TPR) and False (FPR) Positive Rates associated with these methods.Between three and twenty-four determinants of infection were identified, the pre-epidemic antibodytiter being the unique covariate selected with all methods. The mean TPR were the highest for RF(85%) and BRT (80%), followed by the LASSO (up to 78%), while the UFMLR methodology wasinefficient (below 50%). A slight increase of alpha risk (mean FPR up to 9%) was observed for logisticregression-based models, LASSO included, while the mean FPR was 4% for the data-mining methods.Secondly, we propose a hypothesis-driven causal analysis of the infection risk, with a structural-equation model (SEM). We exploited the SEM specificity of modeling latent variables to study verydiverse factors, their relative impact on the infection, as well as their eventual relationships. Only thelatent variables describing host susceptibility (modeled by the pre-epidemic antibody titer) and com-pliance with preventive behaviors were directly associated with infection. The behavioral factors des-cribing risk perception and preventive measures perception positively influenced compliance with pre-ventive behaviors. The intensity (number and duration) of social contacts was not associated with theinfection.This thesis shows the necessity of considering novel statistical approaches for the analysis of largedatasets in epidemiology. Data mining and LASSO are credible alternatives to the tools generally usedto explore associations with a high number of variables. SEM allows the integration of variables des-cribing diverse dimensions and the explicit modeling of their relationships ; these models are thereforeof major interest in a multidisciplinary study as CoPanFlu.

As emergências de saúde pública, provocadas por doenças infecciosas, têm impulsionado uma intensa reflexão no campo da saúde pública sobre possíveis caminhos para lidar com a complexidade do problema. Entre as estratégias para melhorar a capacidade de resposta dos países a essas emergências, a OMS enfatiza a necessidade de organização dos serviços hospitalares e a formação de profissionais de saúde. Pelo espaço de um Hospital Universitário, o objetivo consistiu em compreender as representações sociais de emergências de saúde pública entre gestores, que experienciaram a Pandemia de Influenza A (H1N1) de 2009. A pesquisa é de natureza qualitativa, do tipo estudo de caso, encontrando-se na Teoria das Representações Sociais a fundamentação teórico-metodológica. A coleta de informações ocorreu mediante as técnicas de associação livre e de entrevistas semiestruturadas, aplicadas a 30 participantes. As informações foram submetidas à análise de conteúdo categorial temática, resultando nas categorias: vulnerabilidade, proteção da saúde, descaso – zonas nebulosas da esfera pública, e, por fim, integralidade. A emergência de saúde pública é representada a uma distância segura do compreensível. O medo e a insegurança que transitam pelo espaço do obscuro, do desconhecido e do incognoscível reforçam o espectro da vulnerabilidade. A imagem de proteção da saúde, organizada principalmente pela ideia de prevenção, relaciona-se intimamente a medidas de contenção, constatando-se permanências da herança da saúde pública e da medicina tradicional. A naturalização da ‘falta de’, que transita por zonas nebulosas da esfera pública, reforça um discurso reificado de que o hospital universitário não tem estrutura para atender essa demanda. A defesa da educação permanente, organizando a imagem da integralidade, acena uma possibilidade de mudança na percepção predominantemente técnico-científica da gestão. Confirma-se a tese de que as representações sociais de emergências de saúde pública na pandemia de influenza entre gestores no espaço de um HU organizam-se na contradição entre a imagem de excelência desses hospitais e a realidade vivida pelos gestores no dia-a-dia do trabalho. Manter a crítica individual, coletiva, educativa e social, assumindo compromissos, responsabilidades nos espaços das macro e micro políticas do Estado, dos HU’s e das equipes de trabalho, são possibilidades que se desenham na pesquisa como contribuições para a gestão das emergências de saúde pública. / The public health emergencies, caused by infectious diseases, have driven an intense reflection in the public health field about possible ways to deal with the complexity of the problem. Among the strategies to improve the capacity of countries' response to such emergencies, WHO emphasizes the need of hospital services organization and health professionals formation. By the space of a University Hospital, the objective consisted in understanding the social representations of public health emergencies among managers, who have experienced the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic. The research is of qualitative nature, case study type, lying in the Social Representations Theory its theoretical-methodological grounding. Data collection occurred through techniques of free association and semi-structured interviews, applied to 30 participants. Data were submitted to thematic categorical content analysis, resulting in the categories: vulnerability, health protection, neglect - gray areas of the public sphere and, finally, integrality. The public health emergency is represented at a safe distance of the understandable. Fear and insecurity that transit through the space of the obscure, the unknown and the uncognizable reinforce the specter of vulnerability. The image of health protection, organized mainly by the idea of prevention, is closely related to containment measures, and is noted the permanence of inheritance of traditional public health and medicine. The naturalization of the 'lack of', which transits through gray areas of public sphere, reinforces a reified discourse that the university hospital has no structure to meet this demand. The defense of continuing education, organizing the image of integrality, waves a possibility of change in the perception predominantly technical and scientific of management. It is confirmed the thesis that social representations of public health emergencies in pandemic influenza among managers in the space of a UH are organized in the contradiction between the image of excellence of these hospitals and the reality experienced by managers in their day-to-day work. Keeping the individual, collective, educational and social critique, taking on commitments, responsibilities in the spaces of macro and micro policies of the State, of UH's and work teams, are possibilities that emerge from the research as contributions to the management of public health emergencies. / Las emergencias de salud pública, provocadas por enfermedades infecciosas, han impulsionado una intensa reflexión en el campo de la salud pública sobre posibles caminos para lidiar con la complejidad del problema. Entre las estrategias para mejorar la capacidad de respuesta de los países a esas emergencias, la OMS enfatiza la necesidad de organización de los servicios hospitalarios y la formación de profesionales de salud. Por el espacio de un Hospital Universitario, el objetivo consistió en comprender las representaciones sociales de emergencias de salud pública entre gestores, que experimentaron la Pandemia de Influenza A (H1N1) de 2009. La investigación es de naturaleza cualitativa, del tipo estudio de caso, encontrándose en la Teoría de las Representaciones Sociales la fundamentación teórico-metodológica. La recolección de informaciones ocurrió mediante las técnicas de asociación libre y de entrevistas semiestructuradas, aplicadas a 30 participantes. Las informaciones fueron sometidas a análisis de contenido categorial temática, resultando en las categorías: vulnerabilidad, protección de la salud, descaso – zonas nebulosas de la esfera pública, y, por fin, integralidad. La emergencia de salud pública está representada a una distancia segura de lo comprensible. El miedo y la inseguridad que transitan por el espacio de lo oscuro, de lo desconocido y de lo incognoscible refuerzan el espectro de la vulnerabilidad. La imagen de protección de la salud, organizada principalmente por la idea de prevención, se relaciona íntimamente a medidas de contención, constatándose permanencias de la herencia de la salud pública y de la medicina tradicional. La naturalización de la ‘falta de’, que transita por zonas nebulosas de la esfera pública, refuerza un discurso reificado de que el hospital universitario no tiene estructura para atender esa demanda. La defensa de la educación permanente, organizando la imagen de la integralidad, señala una posibilidad de cambio en la percepción predominantemente técnico-científica de la gestión. Se confirma la tesis de que las representaciones sociales de emergencias de salud pública en la pandemia de influenza entre gestores en el espacio de un HU se organizan en la contradicción entre la imagen de excelencia de esos hospitales y la realidad vivida por los gestores en el día a día del trabajo. Mantener la crítica individual, colectiva, educativa y social, asumiendo compromisos, responsabilidades en los espacios de las macro y micro políticas del Estado, de los HU’s y de los equipos de trabajo, son posibilidades que se diseñan en la investigación como contribuciones para la gestión de las emergencias de salud pública.

As emergências de saúde pública, provocadas por doenças infecciosas, têm impulsionado uma intensa reflexão no campo da saúde pública sobre possíveis caminhos para lidar com a complexidade do problema. Entre as estratégias para melhorar a capacidade de resposta dos países a essas emergências, a OMS enfatiza a necessidade de organização dos serviços hospitalares e a formação de profissionais de saúde. Pelo espaço de um Hospital Universitário, o objetivo consistiu em compreender as representações sociais de emergências de saúde pública entre gestores, que experienciaram a Pandemia de Influenza A (H1N1) de 2009. A pesquisa é de natureza qualitativa, do tipo estudo de caso, encontrando-se na Teoria das Representações Sociais a fundamentação teórico-metodológica. A coleta de informações ocorreu mediante as técnicas de associação livre e de entrevistas semiestruturadas, aplicadas a 30 participantes. As informações foram submetidas à análise de conteúdo categorial temática, resultando nas categorias: vulnerabilidade, proteção da saúde, descaso – zonas nebulosas da esfera pública, e, por fim, integralidade. A emergência de saúde pública é representada a uma distância segura do compreensível. O medo e a insegurança que transitam pelo espaço do obscuro, do desconhecido e do incognoscível reforçam o espectro da vulnerabilidade. A imagem de proteção da saúde, organizada principalmente pela ideia de prevenção, relaciona-se intimamente a medidas de contenção, constatando-se permanências da herança da saúde pública e da medicina tradicional. A naturalização da ‘falta de’, que transita por zonas nebulosas da esfera pública, reforça um discurso reificado de que o hospital universitário não tem estrutura para atender essa demanda. A defesa da educação permanente, organizando a imagem da integralidade, acena uma possibilidade de mudança na percepção predominantemente técnico-científica da gestão. Confirma-se a tese de que as representações sociais de emergências de saúde pública na pandemia de influenza entre gestores no espaço de um HU organizam-se na contradição entre a imagem de excelência desses hospitais e a realidade vivida pelos gestores no dia-a-dia do trabalho. Manter a crítica individual, coletiva, educativa e social, assumindo compromissos, responsabilidades nos espaços das macro e micro políticas do Estado, dos HU’s e das equipes de trabalho, são possibilidades que se desenham na pesquisa como contribuições para a gestão das emergências de saúde pública. / The public health emergencies, caused by infectious diseases, have driven an intense reflection in the public health field about possible ways to deal with the complexity of the problem. Among the strategies to improve the capacity of countries' response to such emergencies, WHO emphasizes the need of hospital services organization and health professionals formation. By the space of a University Hospital, the objective consisted in understanding the social representations of public health emergencies among managers, who have experienced the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic. The research is of qualitative nature, case study type, lying in the Social Representations Theory its theoretical-methodological grounding. Data collection occurred through techniques of free association and semi-structured interviews, applied to 30 participants. Data were submitted to thematic categorical content analysis, resulting in the categories: vulnerability, health protection, neglect - gray areas of the public sphere and, finally, integrality. The public health emergency is represented at a safe distance of the understandable. Fear and insecurity that transit through the space of the obscure, the unknown and the uncognizable reinforce the specter of vulnerability. The image of health protection, organized mainly by the idea of prevention, is closely related to containment measures, and is noted the permanence of inheritance of traditional public health and medicine. The naturalization of the 'lack of', which transits through gray areas of public sphere, reinforces a reified discourse that the university hospital has no structure to meet this demand. The defense of continuing education, organizing the image of integrality, waves a possibility of change in the perception predominantly technical and scientific of management. It is confirmed the thesis that social representations of public health emergencies in pandemic influenza among managers in the space of a UH are organized in the contradiction between the image of excellence of these hospitals and the reality experienced by managers in their day-to-day work. Keeping the individual, collective, educational and social critique, taking on commitments, responsibilities in the spaces of macro and micro policies of the State, of UH's and work teams, are possibilities that emerge from the research as contributions to the management of public health emergencies. / Las emergencias de salud pública, provocadas por enfermedades infecciosas, han impulsionado una intensa reflexión en el campo de la salud pública sobre posibles caminos para lidiar con la complejidad del problema. Entre las estrategias para mejorar la capacidad de respuesta de los países a esas emergencias, la OMS enfatiza la necesidad de organización de los servicios hospitalarios y la formación de profesionales de salud. Por el espacio de un Hospital Universitario, el objetivo consistió en comprender las representaciones sociales de emergencias de salud pública entre gestores, que experimentaron la Pandemia de Influenza A (H1N1) de 2009. La investigación es de naturaleza cualitativa, del tipo estudio de caso, encontrándose en la Teoría de las Representaciones Sociales la fundamentación teórico-metodológica. La recolección de informaciones ocurrió mediante las técnicas de asociación libre y de entrevistas semiestructuradas, aplicadas a 30 participantes. Las informaciones fueron sometidas a análisis de contenido categorial temática, resultando en las categorías: vulnerabilidad, protección de la salud, descaso – zonas nebulosas de la esfera pública, y, por fin, integralidad. La emergencia de salud pública está representada a una distancia segura de lo comprensible. El miedo y la inseguridad que transitan por el espacio de lo oscuro, de lo desconocido y de lo incognoscible refuerzan el espectro de la vulnerabilidad. La imagen de protección de la salud, organizada principalmente por la idea de prevención, se relaciona íntimamente a medidas de contención, constatándose permanencias de la herencia de la salud pública y de la medicina tradicional. La naturalización de la ‘falta de’, que transita por zonas nebulosas de la esfera pública, refuerza un discurso reificado de que el hospital universitario no tiene estructura para atender esa demanda. La defensa de la educación permanente, organizando la imagen de la integralidad, señala una posibilidad de cambio en la percepción predominantemente técnico-científica de la gestión. Se confirma la tesis de que las representaciones sociales de emergencias de salud pública en la pandemia de influenza entre gestores en el espacio de un HU se organizan en la contradicción entre la imagen de excelencia de esos hospitales y la realidad vivida por los gestores en el día a día del trabajo. Mantener la crítica individual, colectiva, educativa y social, asumiendo compromisos, responsabilidades en los espacios de las macro y micro políticas del Estado, de los HU’s y de los equipos de trabajo, son posibilidades que se diseñan en la investigación como contribuciones para la gestión de las emergencias de salud pública.

As emergências de saúde pública, provocadas por doenças infecciosas, têm impulsionado uma intensa reflexão no campo da saúde pública sobre possíveis caminhos para lidar com a complexidade do problema. Entre as estratégias para melhorar a capacidade de resposta dos países a essas emergências, a OMS enfatiza a necessidade de organização dos serviços hospitalares e a formação de profissionais de saúde. Pelo espaço de um Hospital Universitário, o objetivo consistiu em compreender as representações sociais de emergências de saúde pública entre gestores, que experienciaram a Pandemia de Influenza A (H1N1) de 2009. A pesquisa é de natureza qualitativa, do tipo estudo de caso, encontrando-se na Teoria das Representações Sociais a fundamentação teórico-metodológica. A coleta de informações ocorreu mediante as técnicas de associação livre e de entrevistas semiestruturadas, aplicadas a 30 participantes. As informações foram submetidas à análise de conteúdo categorial temática, resultando nas categorias: vulnerabilidade, proteção da saúde, descaso – zonas nebulosas da esfera pública, e, por fim, integralidade. A emergência de saúde pública é representada a uma distância segura do compreensível. O medo e a insegurança que transitam pelo espaço do obscuro, do desconhecido e do incognoscível reforçam o espectro da vulnerabilidade. A imagem de proteção da saúde, organizada principalmente pela ideia de prevenção, relaciona-se intimamente a medidas de contenção, constatando-se permanências da herança da saúde pública e da medicina tradicional. A naturalização da ‘falta de’, que transita por zonas nebulosas da esfera pública, reforça um discurso reificado de que o hospital universitário não tem estrutura para atender essa demanda. A defesa da educação permanente, organizando a imagem da integralidade, acena uma possibilidade de mudança na percepção predominantemente técnico-científica da gestão. Confirma-se a tese de que as representações sociais de emergências de saúde pública na pandemia de influenza entre gestores no espaço de um HU organizam-se na contradição entre a imagem de excelência desses hospitais e a realidade vivida pelos gestores no dia-a-dia do trabalho. Manter a crítica individual, coletiva, educativa e social, assumindo compromissos, responsabilidades nos espaços das macro e micro políticas do Estado, dos HU’s e das equipes de trabalho, são possibilidades que se desenham na pesquisa como contribuições para a gestão das emergências de saúde pública. / The public health emergencies, caused by infectious diseases, have driven an intense reflection in the public health field about possible ways to deal with the complexity of the problem. Among the strategies to improve the capacity of countries' response to such emergencies, WHO emphasizes the need of hospital services organization and health professionals formation. By the space of a University Hospital, the objective consisted in understanding the social representations of public health emergencies among managers, who have experienced the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic. The research is of qualitative nature, case study type, lying in the Social Representations Theory its theoretical-methodological grounding. Data collection occurred through techniques of free association and semi-structured interviews, applied to 30 participants. Data were submitted to thematic categorical content analysis, resulting in the categories: vulnerability, health protection, neglect - gray areas of the public sphere and, finally, integrality. The public health emergency is represented at a safe distance of the understandable. Fear and insecurity that transit through the space of the obscure, the unknown and the uncognizable reinforce the specter of vulnerability. The image of health protection, organized mainly by the idea of prevention, is closely related to containment measures, and is noted the permanence of inheritance of traditional public health and medicine. The naturalization of the 'lack of', which transits through gray areas of public sphere, reinforces a reified discourse that the university hospital has no structure to meet this demand. The defense of continuing education, organizing the image of integrality, waves a possibility of change in the perception predominantly technical and scientific of management. It is confirmed the thesis that social representations of public health emergencies in pandemic influenza among managers in the space of a UH are organized in the contradiction between the image of excellence of these hospitals and the reality experienced by managers in their day-to-day work. Keeping the individual, collective, educational and social critique, taking on commitments, responsibilities in the spaces of macro and micro policies of the State, of UH's and work teams, are possibilities that emerge from the research as contributions to the management of public health emergencies. / Las emergencias de salud pública, provocadas por enfermedades infecciosas, han impulsionado una intensa reflexión en el campo de la salud pública sobre posibles caminos para lidiar con la complejidad del problema. Entre las estrategias para mejorar la capacidad de respuesta de los países a esas emergencias, la OMS enfatiza la necesidad de organización de los servicios hospitalarios y la formación de profesionales de salud. Por el espacio de un Hospital Universitario, el objetivo consistió en comprender las representaciones sociales de emergencias de salud pública entre gestores, que experimentaron la Pandemia de Influenza A (H1N1) de 2009. La investigación es de naturaleza cualitativa, del tipo estudio de caso, encontrándose en la Teoría de las Representaciones Sociales la fundamentación teórico-metodológica. La recolección de informaciones ocurrió mediante las técnicas de asociación libre y de entrevistas semiestructuradas, aplicadas a 30 participantes. Las informaciones fueron sometidas a análisis de contenido categorial temática, resultando en las categorías: vulnerabilidad, protección de la salud, descaso – zonas nebulosas de la esfera pública, y, por fin, integralidad. La emergencia de salud pública está representada a una distancia segura de lo comprensible. El miedo y la inseguridad que transitan por el espacio de lo oscuro, de lo desconocido y de lo incognoscible refuerzan el espectro de la vulnerabilidad. La imagen de protección de la salud, organizada principalmente por la idea de prevención, se relaciona íntimamente a medidas de contención, constatándose permanencias de la herencia de la salud pública y de la medicina tradicional. La naturalización de la ‘falta de’, que transita por zonas nebulosas de la esfera pública, refuerza un discurso reificado de que el hospital universitario no tiene estructura para atender esa demanda. La defensa de la educación permanente, organizando la imagen de la integralidad, señala una posibilidad de cambio en la percepción predominantemente técnico-científica de la gestión. Se confirma la tesis de que las representaciones sociales de emergencias de salud pública en la pandemia de influenza entre gestores en el espacio de un HU se organizan en la contradicción entre la imagen de excelencia de esos hospitales y la realidad vivida por los gestores en el día a día del trabajo. Mantener la crítica individual, colectiva, educativa y social, asumiendo compromisos, responsabilidades en los espacios de las macro y micro políticas del Estado, de los HU’s y de los equipos de trabajo, son posibilidades que se diseñan en la investigación como contribuciones para la gestión de las emergencias de salud pública.

Objectif de la thèse est de fournir République de Djibouti inventaire de la pandémie de grippe A/H1N1/2009-H1N1p et arbovirus hiver 2010. Elle a confirmé la capacité de surveillance locale pour détecter la grippe SG pic lors de la première vague de la pandémie, dont le profil était compatible avec H1N1p. Dans l'enquête CoPanFlu, une prévalence élevée (30%) de H1N1p a été confirmée par la jeune et District 4 résidents (plus de inégalités sociales) portant le plus lourd fardeau. Par conséquent, le contrôle futur de SG exigerait une approche queue pour atteindre des individus spécifiques et vulnérables. L'absence de données de surveillance robustes dans les pays du Sud pourrait être responsable de la sous-estimation de la charge, même lorsque le profil de la maladie ressemblait à ceux des pays développés. Sur arbovirus, la plupart des facteurs prédictifs de cas étaient statistiquement mieux décrits par de l'espace de logement et les caractéristiques environnementales du quartier, qui en corrélation avec les acteurs écologiques de leurs vecteurs de la survie des individus dans la niche locale. Cela confirme circulations arbovirus autochtones dans la République de Djibouti et a fourni l'inventaire pour la cartographie des risques et les futurs programmes de prévention et de contrôle. Les arbovirus sont les plus répandus dans le centre-ville (quartier 1), mais des cas ont diminué vers la périphérie de la banlieue (District 4). L'inverse est vrai pour les cas de grippe, ce qui démontre que des solutions sur mesure convenant à un des besoins de santé de la région, se garantir un rendement optimal sur les ressources allouées. / Thesis purpose was to provide Republic of Djibouti inventory of pandemic Influenza A/H1N1/2009 (H1N1p) and arboviruses events in the winter of 2010. The demonstrated local surveillance was capable of detecting (influenza) ILI peaking during the first pandemic wave, whose profile was consistent with H1N1p. In a Copanflu investigation that occurred during second pandemic wave, a high prevalence (30%) of H1N1p was confirmed and conspicuously, the young and District 4 residents (highest social inequalities) bored the greatest burden. Therefore, concluded that future ILI control would require a tailed approach to reach specific and vulnerable individuals. Lack of robust ILI data from surveillance in southern countries could be responsible for the underestimation of burden, even when the illness profile resembled those of developed countries. On arboviral, most case predictors were statistically best described by individuals' housing space and neighbourhood environmental characteristics, which correlated with the ecological actors of their respective transmission vectors' survival in the local niche. This study confirmed autochthonous arboviral circulations in the republic of Djibouti and provided an epidemiological inventory for risk mapping and future prevention and control programs. The arboviruses were most prevalent in city centre (District 1), but cases declined towards the periphery of the suburb (District 4). The inverse was true for pandemic and ILI cases, demonstrating that a tailored solutions suiting local area health needs, would guarantee an optimal return on allocated resources.

This thesis describes how transmission of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States varied geographically, with emphasis on population distribution and age structure. This is made possible by the availability of medical claims records maintained in the private sector that capture the weekly incidence of influenza-like illness in 834 US cities. First, a probabilistic method is developed to infer each city's outbreak onset time. This reveals a clear wave-like pattern of transmission originating in the south-eastern US. Then, a mechanistic mathematical model is constructed to describe the between-city transmission of the epidemic. A model selection procedure reveals that transmission to a city is modulated by its population size, surrounding population density, and possibly by students mixing in schools. Geographic variation in transmissibility is explored further by nesting a latent Gaussian process within the mechanistic transmission model, revealing a possible region of elevated transmissibility in the south-eastern US. Then, using the mechanistic model and a probabilistic back-tracing procedure, the geographic introduction sites (the `transmission hubs') of the outbreak are identified. The transmission hubs of the 2009 pandemic were generally mid-sized cities, contrasting with the conventional perspective that major outbreaks should start in large population centres with high international connectivity. Transmission is traced forward from these hubs to identify `basins of infection', or regions where outbreaks can be attributed with high probability to a particular hub. The city-level influenza data is also separated into 12 age categories. Techniques adapted from signal processing reveal that school-aged children may have been key drivers of the epidemic. Finally, to provide a point of comparison, the procedures described above are applied to the 2003-04 and 2007-08 seasonal influenza outbreaks. Since the 2007-08 outbreak featured three antigenically distinct strains of influenza, it is possible to identify which antigenic strains may have been responsible for infecting each transmission hub. These strains are identified using a probabilistic model that is joined with the geographic transmission model, providing a link between population dynamics and molecular surveillance.

Infectious diseases are a very hot topic nowadays in society. In recent years, there were several epidemics, infectious diseases (hepatitis A, Avian influenza, pandemic influenza A) and nobody knows when will the next "new" infection. At the outbreak of epidemics, there is great interest in the company to obtain information about the disease, but often also to unnecessary panic, because the media often publish incorrect information. It would be preferable, in order to improve public awareness and prevent the unnecessary spread of disease. Great emphasis should be given to prevent the disease - primarily on immunization, hygiene rules and principles of safe sex. Quality information should be mainly from teachers in teaching their pupils, as is clear from research books, infectious diseases are only mentioned in textbooks and the number of substantive information in them is missing. The fact that pupils of primary schools and grammar schools with basic information on infectious diseases do not meet in the classroom, evidenced by the results of a survey carried out in the 6th classes and first year at selected elementary schools and grammar schools in Prague. To raise awareness of the pupils in school was to create a methodical manual for teachers, which summarizes information about bacterial and...

Introduction: Epidemiological studies have indicated that 5-38% of influenza like illnesses (ILI) develop into severe disease due to, among others, factors such as; underlying chronic diseases, age, pregnancy, and viral mutations. There are suggestions that dual or multiple virus infections may affect disease severity. This study investigated the association between co-infection between influenza A viruses and other respiratory viruses and disease severity. Methodology: Datum for samples from North West England tested between January 2007 and June 2012 was analysed for patterns of co-infection between influenza A viruses and ten respiratory viruses. Risk of hospitalization to a general ward ICU or death in single versus mixed infections was assessed using multiple logistic regression models. Results: One or more viruses were identified in 37.8% (11,715/30,975) of samples, of which 10.4% (1,214) were mixed infections and 89.6% (10,501) were single infections. Among patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, co-infections occurred in 4.7% (137⁄2,879) vs. 6.5% (59⁄902) in those with seasonal influenza A virus infection. In general, patients with mixed respiratory virus infections had a higher risk of admission to a general ward (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.2 – 1.7, p = <0.0001) than those with a single infection. Co-infection between seasonal influenza A viruses and influenza B virus was associated with a significant increase in the risk of admission to ICU/ death (OR: 22.0, 95% CI: 2.21 – 219.8 p = 0.008). RSV/seasonal influenza A viruses co-infection also associated with increased risk but this was not statistically significant. For the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, RSV and AdV co-infection increased risk of hospitalization to a general ward, whereas Flu B increased risk of admission to ICU/ death, but none of these were statistically significant. Considering only single infections, RSV and hPIV1-3 increased risk of admission to a general ward (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.28 – 1.73, p = <0.0001 and OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.003 – 1.8, p = 0.05) and admission to ICU/ death (OR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.20 – 2.0, p = <0.0001 and OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.02 – 2.40, p = 0.04). Conclusion: Co-infection is a significant predictor of disease outcome; there is insufficient public health data on this subject as not all samples sent for investigation of respiratory virus infection are tested for all respiratory viruses. Integration of testing for respiratory viruses’ co-infections into routine clinical practice and R&D on integrated drugs and vaccines for influenza A&B, RSV, and AdV, and development of multi-target diagnostic tests is encouraged.