An outbreak of Foot and Mouth disease in Canada would result in the closing of borders to trade in meat and livestock between Canada and the US. The loss of export market access would result in losses to Canadian producers and negatively affect Canada’s reputation as a trading partner. Under a Regionalization Policy, trade could be allowed from disease-free regions of Canada during an outbreak. This would allow a limited amount of trade to continue and mitigate the losses to producers in uninfected areas. This thesis examined scenarios that involve various degrees of regionalization to determine the effects on producers, consumers and taxpayers. A partial- equilibrium model is used to determine the impact on economic welfare under each scenario and comparisons are made to help evaluate the relative outcomes of policies towards regionalization.

In September 1993, the United States Congress formally ratified the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in conjunction with the legislatures of Canada and Mexico. NAFTA phases out tariff barriers between the United States, Canada, and Mexico over a period of several years. The primary purpose of this study is to provide an empirical tool for evaluating the effects of NAFTA on beef trade between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Trends were identified in U.S. beef exports and imports to Canada and Mexico over a period of several years. From the data on import/export quantities and prices, relevant elasticities were estimated for the the three trading partners using a partial adjustment modeling technique. Given the elasticities, relevant statistical tests were performed to determine the significance of price and quantity changes. This was done to determine whether changes in trading practices were consistent. Finally, policy recommendations were developed based on the assessment of NAFTA on U.S. beef trade. An overall direction of trade among the three countries was determined. Policies and implications based on economic theory were developed.

The agricultural negotiations in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Doha Development Agenda (DDA) are calling for a specific Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) for developing countries that will protect agricultural producers from import surges or price declines, and could potentially add stability to domestic markets. While most of the parameters of this SSM have been decided upon, the DDA negotiations faltered on the issue of whether or not developing nations should be allowed to exceed their pre-Doha bound tariff rates when invoking the SSM. For developing countries, tariffs on agricultural products are an important policy tool to support domestic prices and protect their smallholder producers from global market shifts. Tariffs, however, distort world prices and create global welfare losses. The purpose of this thesis is to assess the impacts of the SSM on global prices and welfare using a non-spatial, synthetic, stochastic, global, partial equilibrium model of the world soybean market. The SSM is assessed in concert with the currently proposed DDA tariff cutting formulas since the additional duties allowed under the SSM are proportional to prevailing bound tariff levels. This study asserts that the SSM actually decreases global price and welfare stability, decreasing world prices of the commodities on which an SSM is placed, though positively affects tariff revenues for those particular commodities. While the SSM may offer a short-term solution for developing countries, its long-term outlook as a price stabilization tool is a not credible argument. / Master of Science

This thesis examines the effects on demand, supply, imports, and prices of partial easing of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers to trade in the U.S. market in the case of Mexican avocados. The SPS Agreement plays a role in the avocado market studied here through its implications for negotiations between countries that have not utilized the formal channels of the WTO for resolving disputes. A quarantine in place from 1914 until very recently banned entry of Mexican avocados into the U.S. market on grounds of risk of pest infestation. Since the early 1970s this quarantine has been a cause of dispute between the Mexican and U.S. governments, resulting in elaborate evaluations of possible pest risks and risk mitigation procedures that might be carried out. However, after the initiation of negotiations for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1991, the import ban was partially eased in 1995 allowing Mexico access to the Northeastern part of the U.S. during four winter months. After three years of successfully exporting without any pest outbreaks, Mexico requested increased access to an additional part of the U.S. market, which it was granted in 2001. This study develops a partial equilibrium trade model to investigate the effects that this increased access will have on the avocados markets. Hypothesized further increases in access are described, and their potential effects are evaluated as well. / Master of Science

Globally, China is the number one soybean importer, and the United States, Brazil, and Argentina are the top three soybean exporters. This research, based on the reverse residual demand model, developed and estimated a two-country partial equilibrium trade model to test who has stronger market power in the Chinese soybean import market. This two-country partial equilibrium trade model incorporates the U.S. residual soybean supply for China, the Chinese residual demand for U.S. soybeans, and the equilibrium condition, where the U.S. residual soybean supply equals the Chinese residual soybean demand. Data used in this research are monthly data from January 1999 to February 2005, 74 observations. Empirical results indicated that Chinese soybean importers have stronger market power relative to U.S. soybean exporters.This research also conducted the competitive analysis of the Chinese soybean import market by examining both annual and monthly data of Chinese soybean imports from the U.S. and South America (Brazil and Argentina). Results implied that the U.S. and South America are seasonal complementary soybean suppliers for China. Possible reasons include: 1) seasonal difference--the U.S. and South America have opposing growing seasons, i.e., different time periods to supply soybeans to markets; and 2) stronger market power of Chinese soybean importers–China's strategic choice, diversifying their soybean suppliers and reducing price increase risk, made the U.S. and South America complementary soybean suppliers to China.Additionally, this research compared the soybean export costs to China for the three countries. Results showed that Brazil has the greatest advantage for production costs, followed by Argentina and the U.S.; the U.S. has the greatest advantage for internal and international transportation and marketing costs, followed by Argentina and Brazil. In aggregate, the total soybean export costs for Brazil were the lowest and the export costs for Argentina were the highest, with U.S. costs between them.In terms of policy implications for the U.S. soybean industry facing strong competition from South America, we cannot expect that U.S. market share in the Chinese soybean import market can be expanded much. With the development of infrastructure in Brazil and Argentina, the U.S. advantage will become less and less. Therefore, if the U.S. soybean industry wants to keep its current position in the Chinese soybean import market, some governmental policy supports are still necessary.

Growing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions have implied an increased attention to the development of renewable energy sources. Bioenergy from forest biomass is expected to be one of the cornerstones in reaching renewable energy targets, especially in forest-rich countries such as Sweden. However, forest biomass is a limited resource, and an intensified use of bioenergy could affect roundwood and forest products’ markets in several ways. The overall purpose of this thesis is to analyze price formation and resource allocation of forest raw materials in the presence of increased bioenergy demand. The empirical focus is on the competition for wood fibres between bioenergy use and the traditional forest industries, as well as synergy effects between the various sectors using forest raw materials. The methodologic approach is partial equilibrium modeling (forest sector model), and the geographical focus is on Sweden. The thesis comprises three self-contained articles, which all address the above issues. The first paper presents an economic assessment of two different policies – both implying an increased demand for forest ecosystem services – and how these could affect the competition for forest raw materials. A forest sector trade model is updated to a new base year (2016), and used to analyze the consequences of increased bioenergy use in the heat and power (HP) sector as well as increased forest conservation in Sweden. These overall scenarios are assessed individually and in combination. The results show how various forest raw material-using sectors are affected in terms of price changes and responses in production. A particularly interesting market impact is that bioenergy promotion and forest conservation tend to have opposite effects on forest industry by-product prices. Moreover, combining the two policies mitigates the forest industry by-product price increase compared to the case where only the bioenergy-promoting policy is implemented. In other words, the HP sector is less negatively affected in terms of increased feedstock prices if bioenergy demand target are accompanied by increased forest conservation. This effect is due to increasing pulpwood prices, which reduces pulp, paper and board production, and in turn mitiges the competition for the associated by-products. Overall, the paper illustrates the great complexity of the forest raw material market, and the importance of considering demand and supply responses within and between sectors in energy and forest policy designs. The second article investigates the forest raw material market effects from introducing second-generation transport biofuel (exemplified by Bio-SNG) production in Sweden. Increases in Bio-SNG demand between 5 and 30 TWh are investigated. The simulation results illustrate increasing forest industry by-product (i.e., sawdust, wood chips and bark) prices, not least in the high-production scenarios (i.e. 20-30 TWh). This suggests that increases in second-generation biofuel productions lead to increased competition for the forest raw materials. The higher feedstock prices make the HP sector less profitable, but very meagre evidence of substitution of fossil fuels for by-products can be found. In this sector, there is instead an increased use of harvesting residues. Fiberboard and particleboard production ceases entirely due to increased input prices. There is also evidence of synergy (“by-product”) effects between the sawmill sector and the use of forest raw materials in the HP sector. Higher by-product prices spur sawmills to produce more sawnwood, something that in turn induces forest owners to increase harvest levels. Already in the 5 TWh Bio-SNG scenario, there is an increase in the harvest level, thus suggesting that the by-product effect kicks in from start. Biofuels and green chemicals are likely to play significant roles in achieving the transition towards a zero-carbon society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is therefore important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance in order to achieve widespread deployment in the future. For evaluations of early-stage biorefinery concepts, there is a need to consider not only the technical performance and the process costs, but also the performance of the full supply chain and the impact of its implementation in the feedstock and products markets. The third article presents – and argues for – a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can form the basis for future evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of various novel biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass feedstocks across sectors, and assumes exogenous end-use product demand and various geographical and technical constraints. It can be used to evaluate the impacts of the introduction of various biorefinery concepts in the biomass markets in terms of feedstock allocations and prices. Policy evaluations, taking into account both engineering constraints and market mechanisms, should also be possible. Overall, the thesis illustrates the importance of considering the market effects when designing and evaluating forest policies and bioenergy policy targets. The forest industry sector and the bioenergy sector are closely interlinked and can both make or break one another depending on the policy design. The results indicate that for an increased demand of bioenergy, an industrial transformation is to be expected, as well as increased roundwood harvest.

Agricultural research and development (R&D) investment is becoming an increasingly important policy issue as food prices push upwards and food security problems emerge. An important source of agricultural R&D funding is from producer check-offs, which are increasingly being used to fund applied agricultural research such as disease management, genetic improvement, and weed control. Existing studies of producer-funded agricultural R&D indicate that there are high private and social rates of return to agricultural R&D investment by farmers, and thus that farmers are under investing in R&D. The focus of this thesis is at the producer level. This study examines one of the factors -- the horizon problem -- behind the apparent disincentive for farmers to invest in producer-funded R&D activities. It has been argued that given the long period of time over which the benefits of R&D investment occur, the increasing age of the farm population implies that the horizon problem could be indeed an important factor in producer underinvestment. Contrary to this widely acknowledged argument, this study shows the horizon problem is likely not a factor affecting farmers R&D investment decisions. Two models are developed to examine the horizon problem. The first model consists of a framework for determining the marginal internal rate of return of investing in R&D. Specifically, the model calculates the internal rate of return -- i.e., IRRh -- associated with the farmers' planning horizon and compares this to the internal rate of return -- i.e., IRR bar-- associated with the benefit horizon of the R&D. The impact of the horizon problem is determined by examining the difference between IRRh and IRR bar. The results of the horizon problem model show how that, contrary to what some authors have argued, the horizon problem is likely not a disincentive for R&D investment, unless the time horizon of farmers is very short. Given that the membership horizon for the average Canadian producer is 15 to 20 years, it is expected that the horizon problem is not an issue for Canadian producers. Furthermore, the analysis assumes farmers only are concerned with profit maximization. However, farmers may also consider other factors when making R&D investment decisions, such as future generations of agricultural producers and environment issues. The results of this study show that, even under the assumption of profit maximization, the horizon problem is not an issue for Canadian farmers, let alone in a more realistic model implemented by including factors other than profit. The results of the horizon problem model also show that the impact of the horizon problem is not affected by land tenure relationships. The second model consists of a multi-region, multi-product trade model that is used to examine the impact of Canadian pea R&D funding on consumers and producers in Canada and in various countries around the world that produce and consume pulses. To address the underinvestment issue, it is important to understand the question of who benefits from the research that is undertaken, and who bears the cost. Given that Canada is the largest pea exporter in the world an increase in R&D investment can be expected to have a significant impact on international trade and overseas producers and consumers. The simulation results from the second model illustrate that with increased pea R&D investment, Canadian producers, as well as consumers in all regions, are better off as a result of the R&D investment, while overseas producers are worse off. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that a pivotal supply shift associated with an increased levy, combined with a parallel supply curve shift due to increases in the knowledge stock, does affect the IRR in the large country versus the small country case. This result differs from the result that occurs when there is a parallel shift in supply at both the levy and R&D stages, indicating that it is important to understand the interaction between the manner in which R&D is funded, the way in which R&D affects supply and the trade status of a country. The results of the sensitivity analysis also indicate that the IRR to Canadian producers depends critically on how large an impact pea R&D has on the production of other crops (e.g., wheat and canola). The larger is this impact -- i.e., the more that wheat and canola production falls as a result of higher yields/lower costs of pea production -- the smaller is the IRR. The results also indicate that the elasticities of demand for peas and lentils in the importing countries do not have an impact on the IRR in the case where Canada is a large country exporter for peas only; however, they do have an impact on IRR in the case where Canada is a large exporter for both peas and lentils. In all cases, the more elastic is the demand, the higher is the IRR.

With accelerating globalization, many industries have faced continuous pressure from rising importation. In the forest products industry, international trade has been intervened by either a tariff on roundwood or a temporary trade barrier on wood and paper products. In this dissertation, three studies are conducted to examine the patterns and impacts of these tariffs and trade barriers. In the first study, the adoption of antidumping and countervailing duty as a temporary trade barrier on forest products trade is examined. Initially, a two-step sample selection model is employed to identify determinants of trade barrier imposition by all the countries, and additionally, by developing countries as a group. Furthermore, the effects in paper and non-paper products are separately assessed by a probit regression. The results reveal that countries with high gross domestic products per capita can file more investigations than others. For these countries with petitions, they are found to be cautious to employ temporary trade barriers, as their attention shifts from the inefficiencies of domestic firms to unfair trade actions of foreign exporters. In the second study, outcomes of antidumping and countervailing petitions and their determinants are analyzed. The outcomes from preliminary and final investigations are separately evaluated by either a binary logistic model or a multinomial logistic model. The results reveal that more affirmative injury decisions exist if petitions initiated after 2000. Since the U.S. has announced the Byrd Amendment in 2000 to protect domestic firms, the trade environment is competitive. In addition, higher-income countries are associated with less affirmative decisions on petitions because of cooperation and retaliation. In the third study, the interaction between tariffs on roundwood and temporary trade barriers on forest products is assessed. A two-stage partial equilibrium displacement model is applied to measure the vertical linkage between roundwood and wood/paper products by estimating endogenous prices, quantities, and the change of welfare after imposing trade barriers. Tariffs on roundwood and temporary trade barriers on forest products are found to have a positive total welfare impact. The implementation of temporary trade barriers on forest products brings a higher welfare change than imposing tariffs on roundwood.

A União Européia e os Estados Unidos são os dois maiores importadores e exportadores mundiais de produtos agroindustriais. O Brasil é um dos mais dinâmicos fornecedores mundiais destes produtos. O país detém a terceira posição no ranking dos maiores exportadores mundiais e apresenta, desde 2002, o maior superávit comercial agroindustrial do mundo. A UE e os EUA poderiam importar ainda mais se não impusessem proteções de fronteira para seus produtos sensíveis. Picos tarifários, tarifas proibitivas, escaladas tarifárias, tarifas específicas, quotas tarifárias e salvaguardas especiais são os mecanismos de proteção analisados neste trabalho. Embora dirigidas para uma minoria de produtos, essas proteções são de grande relevância para o Brasil. As barreiras tarifárias foram analisadas sob três perspectivas: (i) das relações entre as barreiras e as políticas de apoio ao setor agrícola na UE e nos EUA; (ii) da inserção dos produtos brasileiros nesses mercados e (iii) da aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial para simulação dos efeitos sobre as importações diante de cenários de redução tarifária. O modelo de equilíbrio parcial baseia-se na elasticidade-preço cruzada da demanda por importação. Foram simuladas duas situações: reduções de 50% e de 100% nas tarifas. O modelo foi executado para uma seleção de produtos que fosse, ao mesmo tempo, sensíveis para UE e EUA, e de interesse do Brasil. Os seguintes setores foram analisados: açúcar e álcool, carne bovina, carne de frango, carne suína, suco de laranja, café torrado e solúvel, óleo de soja e fumo em folhas. Os resultados agregados mostram que as importações norte-americanas cresceriam 94% em valor (US$ 4,8 bilhões) e as européias 55% (€ 3,1 bilhões) para o cenário de 100% de redução tarifária. O modelo permite concluir que, caso as proteções de fronteira fossem efetivamente reduzidas, ambos os mercados demandariam volumes significativamente maiores de produtos que são exportados pelo Brasil. Conclui-se também que acordos de livre comércio como a Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA) e o Acordo UE-Mercosul, bem como as negociações multilaterais, se promoverem a liberalização dos mercados agrícolas, trarão ganhos inegáveis de comércio para o agronegócio brasileiro. / The European Union and the United States are the two largest world importers and exporters of agricultural products. Brazil is one of the most dynamic supplier of those commodities. Among the main agricultural exporters, Brazil is the third one and, since 2002, the country has had the largest agroindustrial trade balance surplus in the world. The EU and US would import even more if they were not allowed to impose border protection on their sensitive products. Tariff peaks, prohibitive tariffs, specific tariffs, tariff escalation, tariff quotas, and especial safeguards are the mechanisms analyzed by this work. Although these restrictions protect a small amount of products, their impact is huge on Brazil. The tariffs barriers were analyzed in three perspectives: (i) of the relations between the European and North-American policies to protect their agricultural sector and the barriers imposed; (ii) of the performance of the Brazilian agricultural exports in the previously mentioned foreign markets, and (iii) concerning different tariff reduction scenarios, of the utilization of a partial equilibrium model to quantify the effects on agricultural. The partial equilibrium model is based on price elasticities of import demand with respect to domestic prices. Two tariff reduction scenarios were simulated: 50% reduction and 100% reduction. The simulation model were run for a selection of products. Only products that could be considered not only sensitive for EU and US, but also relevant for Brazilian exports were selected. Sugar and ethanol, bovine meat, poultry meat, swine meat, orange juice, roasted coffee, instant coffee, soybean oil and unmanufactured tobacco were the sectors analyzed. The aggregated results show that the US imports would increase 94% (4,8 US billion) and EU imports 55% (3,1 € billion), in the case of 100% tariff reduction. The modeling results lead to the conclusion that, in the case of effective border protection reduction, both markets would demand higher quantity of products that are exported by Brazil. If agreements between the Free Trade Area of Americas and the EU-Mercosur, as well as the multilateral negotiations, end up promoting agricultural market liberalization, Brazilian agribusiness will profit enormously in terms of its trade.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O Sistema Geral de Preferências (SGP), principal exemplo da concessão de preferências tarifárias unilaterais pelos países desenvolvidos, vem sendo usufruído pelos países em desenvolvimento há mais de 30 anos. O SGP dos EUA, um dos programas mais importantes para o país, vem recentemente sendo objeto de apreensão devido às ameaças que os EUA fez ao Brasil de retirá-lo do programa. Além disso, a possibilidade de uma reestruturação do programa no momento de sua renovação traz muita preocupação ao setor exportador que teme sofrer prejuízos. Este trabalho foi estruturado com o objetivo de estimar a perda das exportações brasileiras para os EUA se o Brasil for eliminado da lista dos países beneficiários do SGP. Usando uma metodologia de equilíbrio parcial, o efeito total sobre as exportações foi calculado através dos efeitos de criação e desvio de comércio. Os resultados indicam uma diminuição de aproximadamente US$ 393 milhões nas exportações destinadas aos EUA e essa perda estaria fortemente concentrada em alguns setores específicos. / The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), main example of the preferential tariff concessions offered unilaterally by developed countries, has been used by developing countries for more than 30 years. The U.S. GSP, one of the most important programs to Brazil, has been causing some apprehension due to threats made by the U.S. to exclude this country from the program. Furthermore, the constant possibility of a program restructure at the moment of its renewal brings hesitation to the exporting sector that fears to suffer a great loss. This study was structured with the intention to estimate the loss to the Brazilian exports to the U.S. if Brazil is excluded from the list of beneficiaries of GSP. Using a partial equilibrium model, the total effect on the exports was calculated through the effects of trade creation and trade diversion. The results imply a decrease of US$ 393 millions of exports destined to U.S. and this loss would be very much concentrated on a few specific sectors.