Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O Sistema Geral de Preferências (SGP), principal exemplo da concessão de preferências tarifárias unilaterais pelos países desenvolvidos, vem sendo usufruído pelos países em desenvolvimento há mais de 30 anos. O SGP dos EUA, um dos programas mais importantes para o país, vem recentemente sendo objeto de apreensão devido às ameaças que os EUA fez ao Brasil de retirá-lo do programa. Além disso, a possibilidade de uma reestruturação do programa no momento de sua renovação traz muita preocupação ao setor exportador que teme sofrer prejuízos. Este trabalho foi estruturado com o objetivo de estimar a perda das exportações brasileiras para os EUA se o Brasil for eliminado da lista dos países beneficiários do SGP. Usando uma metodologia de equilíbrio parcial, o efeito total sobre as exportações foi calculado através dos efeitos de criação e desvio de comércio. Os resultados indicam uma diminuição de aproximadamente US$ 393 milhões nas exportações destinadas aos EUA e essa perda estaria fortemente concentrada em alguns setores específicos. / The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), main example of the preferential tariff concessions offered unilaterally by developed countries, has been used by developing countries for more than 30 years. The U.S. GSP, one of the most important programs to Brazil, has been causing some apprehension due to threats made by the U.S. to exclude this country from the program. Furthermore, the constant possibility of a program restructure at the moment of its renewal brings hesitation to the exporting sector that fears to suffer a great loss. This study was structured with the intention to estimate the loss to the Brazilian exports to the U.S. if Brazil is excluded from the list of beneficiaries of GSP. Using a partial equilibrium model, the total effect on the exports was calculated through the effects of trade creation and trade diversion. The results imply a decrease of US$ 393 millions of exports destined to U.S. and this loss would be very much concentrated on a few specific sectors.

A União Européia e os Estados Unidos são os dois maiores importadores e exportadores mundiais de produtos agroindustriais. O Brasil é um dos mais dinâmicos fornecedores mundiais destes produtos. O país detém a terceira posição no ranking dos maiores exportadores mundiais e apresenta, desde 2002, o maior superávit comercial agroindustrial do mundo. A UE e os EUA poderiam importar ainda mais se não impusessem proteções de fronteira para seus produtos sensíveis. Picos tarifários, tarifas proibitivas, escaladas tarifárias, tarifas específicas, quotas tarifárias e salvaguardas especiais são os mecanismos de proteção analisados neste trabalho. Embora dirigidas para uma minoria de produtos, essas proteções são de grande relevância para o Brasil. As barreiras tarifárias foram analisadas sob três perspectivas: (i) das relações entre as barreiras e as políticas de apoio ao setor agrícola na UE e nos EUA; (ii) da inserção dos produtos brasileiros nesses mercados e (iii) da aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial para simulação dos efeitos sobre as importações diante de cenários de redução tarifária. O modelo de equilíbrio parcial baseia-se na elasticidade-preço cruzada da demanda por importação. Foram simuladas duas situações: reduções de 50% e de 100% nas tarifas. O modelo foi executado para uma seleção de produtos que fosse, ao mesmo tempo, sensíveis para UE e EUA, e de interesse do Brasil. Os seguintes setores foram analisados: açúcar e álcool, carne bovina, carne de frango, carne suína, suco de laranja, café torrado e solúvel, óleo de soja e fumo em folhas. Os resultados agregados mostram que as importações norte-americanas cresceriam 94% em valor (US$ 4,8 bilhões) e as européias 55% (€ 3,1 bilhões) para o cenário de 100% de redução tarifária. O modelo permite concluir que, caso as proteções de fronteira fossem efetivamente reduzidas, ambos os mercados demandariam volumes significativamente maiores de produtos que são exportados pelo Brasil. Conclui-se também que acordos de livre comércio como a Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA) e o Acordo UE-Mercosul, bem como as negociações multilaterais, se promoverem a liberalização dos mercados agrícolas, trarão ganhos inegáveis de comércio para o agronegócio brasileiro. / The European Union and the United States are the two largest world importers and exporters of agricultural products. Brazil is one of the most dynamic supplier of those commodities. Among the main agricultural exporters, Brazil is the third one and, since 2002, the country has had the largest agroindustrial trade balance surplus in the world. The EU and US would import even more if they were not allowed to impose border protection on their sensitive products. Tariff peaks, prohibitive tariffs, specific tariffs, tariff escalation, tariff quotas, and especial safeguards are the mechanisms analyzed by this work. Although these restrictions protect a small amount of products, their impact is huge on Brazil. The tariffs barriers were analyzed in three perspectives: (i) of the relations between the European and North-American policies to protect their agricultural sector and the barriers imposed; (ii) of the performance of the Brazilian agricultural exports in the previously mentioned foreign markets, and (iii) concerning different tariff reduction scenarios, of the utilization of a partial equilibrium model to quantify the effects on agricultural. The partial equilibrium model is based on price elasticities of import demand with respect to domestic prices. Two tariff reduction scenarios were simulated: 50% reduction and 100% reduction. The simulation model were run for a selection of products. Only products that could be considered not only sensitive for EU and US, but also relevant for Brazilian exports were selected. Sugar and ethanol, bovine meat, poultry meat, swine meat, orange juice, roasted coffee, instant coffee, soybean oil and unmanufactured tobacco were the sectors analyzed. The aggregated results show that the US imports would increase 94% (4,8 US billion) and EU imports 55% (3,1 € billion), in the case of 100% tariff reduction. The modeling results lead to the conclusion that, in the case of effective border protection reduction, both markets would demand higher quantity of products that are exported by Brazil. If agreements between the Free Trade Area of Americas and the EU-Mercosur, as well as the multilateral negotiations, end up promoting agricultural market liberalization, Brazilian agribusiness will profit enormously in terms of its trade.

The Regional Integration Agreements surround the international economy as an alternative to total liberalization of markets. Latin America was not astonished with the resurgence of the post-cold war regionalism. Regarding the imperfect customs union Mercosur, even when in this kind of agreement the goal is a Common External Tariff (CET) that would stimulate the external competitiveness under the aegis of the XXIV article of the GATT/OMC, discrimination still persists. In this case, Brazil, by removing restrictions to commerce for the members of the Block, reduced the CET tariff to 10 %. As an effect of the change in trade politics due to integration, a redirection in Mercosur trade flow took place. With a glance on the Brazilian economy and the rice market, which behavioral pattern would these alterations have, under the optics of the customs unions approach, knowing that Brazil is a loyal rice importer from Argentina and Uruguay now with the benefit of the absence of tariff restriction? According to the Vinerian approach, these effects might be beneficial trade creation or damaging trade diversion for the economical welfare. These effects to Mercosur can be measured with a partial equilibrium model for the cereal in order to find the potential of trade creation and diversion after the change in Brazil s import politics. As a result, we find that the greatest trade potential was created with the tariff reduction in the Block, from 1995 to 1999, as well as the trade creation surpassed the trade diversion to the Block from 1991 to 1994. Regarding the trade creation, Argentina was the more benefited country to the removal of tariffs. Nevertheless, the trade creation has gradually diminished for both members of the Mercosur. As consequence the Brazilian internal production has been more competitive than the imports, even without tariff protection. Regarding trade diversion, its values were minimal, so the damages to third party trade represent somewhat if compared to the potential of trade creation in the Block. Finally, it was clear that the alterations of the rough rice trade tariff allowed a great potential of trade creation and a real impact on the Brazil importation and internal production of rice. / Os Acordos Regionais de Integração permeiam a economia internacional como uma alternativa à total liberalização dos mercados. No caso a união aduaneira imperfeita do Mercado Comum do Sul (Mercosul) alterou a dinâmica do mercado de arroz. Nesse caso, o Brasil ao remover as restrições ao comércio para os membros do Bloco reduziu a proteção em uma TEC de 10%. Como efeito, a mudança nos instrumentos de política comercial, em função da integração, geraram uma re-orientação dos fluxos de comércio no Mercosul. Com um olhar na economia brasileira e sobre o mercado de arroz, essas alterações, pela ótica da abordagem das uniões aduaneiras, teriam qual padrão de comportamento, sabendo que o Brasil é fiel importador de arroz da Argentina e Uruguai agora beneficiados pela ausência de restrição tarifária? Segundo a abordagem Vineriana esses efeitos poderiam ser benéficos criação de comércio ou prejudiciais desvio de comércio para o bem-estar econômico. Os efeitos, criação e desvio de comércio, ocorridos no Mercosul foram mensurados por meio de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial para o cereal a fim de estimar o potencial de comércio criado e desviado. Como resultado, tem-se que no período de 1995 a 1999 se concentra o maior potencial de comércio criado com a desgravação tarifária no Bloco. Bem como, o comércio criado entre 1991 e 1994 superou o comércio desviado para dentro do Bloco. Sob essa ótica, a partir da direção comércio criado, a Argentina foi país que mais se beneficiou com a remoção das tarifas. Contudo, o comércio criado, paulatinamente, diminuiu ao longo do tempo para ambos os membros do Mercosul. Do lado do desvio de comércio, seus valores foram mínimos e, dessa forma, os prejuízos ao comércio com terceiros, pouco representam se comparado ao potencial de comércio criado no interior do Bloco. Por fim, ficou claro que mediante a alterações na tarifa, no comércio de arroz, existe um grande potencial de criação de comércio e um real impacto sobre as importações e produção brasileira de arroz.

This study uses the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment, on a Grid (SIMPLE-G­), a partial equilibrium model of agricultural production, to explore how the scale and scope of environmental quality markets influence farm-level production decisions and market performance. I simulate how permit trading affects producers’ input use decisions, and ultimately pollution emissions, by modifying the supply nest structure of the model to include water quality permits as an additional output from agricultural production. Conservation practices improving water quality may also result in ecosystem co-benefits (e.g., reduced greenhouse gas emissions and habitat provision). Hence, I extend SIMPLE-G to quantify these co-benefits and simulate the effects of allowing conservationist producers to “stack” permits (i.e., to supply multiple permit types for each co-benefit). I find that, overall, permit production increases with the scale and scope of the markets. <a>At the smallest market size</a>—which allows trading only within 8-digit hydrological unit code watersheds—unintended policy implications arise as the stacked markets cause one conservation practice to crowd out the other. Meanwhile, the largest market—which allows trading across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed—produces nitrogen permits more efficiently which may lead to less of the secondary permits in comparison to other market configurations. The results of this study support the Environmental Protection Agency’s urging of the expansion of the scale and scope of ecosystem markets.

This thesis deals with the economic and environmental problems of biofuels in the Czech Republic and abroad. The goal is retrieval and analysis of economic studies that address economic and environmental impacts associated with the introduction of biofuels policy. Individual economic studies on the environment that are at work that are evaluated by using biofuels policy of macroeconomic and microeconomic models. Results of studies show that the introduction of biofuels policy creates economic and environmental impacts such as deforestation, environment, prices, employment and competitiveness of farmers.

Die Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf europäische Agrarmärkte im Jahre 2050, unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Getreide- und Ölsaatenmärkte. Dazu werden die klimabedingten Änderungen der Pflanzenproduktivität des Vegetationsmodells LPJmL, welche auf fünf unterschiedlichen Klimamodellprojektionen basieren, in das Marktmodell ESIM implementiert. ESIM ist ein partielles Gleichgewichtsmodell, welches explizit Agrarmärkte der einzelnen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten simuliert. Zur Berücksichtigung der Unsicherheiten die der Klima-Einfluss-Modellierung zugrunde liegt, werden in dieser Arbeit zwei Ansätze berücksichtigt. Zunächst wird, mittels Gauss-Quadraturen, Stochastizitätin das Marktmodell implementiert, um die Unsicherheit bezüglich klimawandelbedingter steigender Ertragsvariabilität, zu berücksichtigen. Die zweite Methode verwendet die fünf individuellen Produktivitätsänderungen aus dem Vegetationsmodell, woraufhin eine Verteilung der Ergebnisse generiert wird. Darüber hinaus wird das Anpassungsverhalten der Landwirte in das Marktmodell integriert. Dies wird mittels der durch den Klimawandel veänderten Profitabilität der Ackerpflanzen berücksichtigt. Die Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass die Pflanzenproduktivität innerhalb der EU, zumindest bis zum Jahre 2050, weitestgehend positiv vom Klimawandel beeinflusst wird. Die Stärke der Auswirkungen variiert jedoch stark zwischen den einzelnen Ackerpflanzen und Ländern, welche von den zugrundeliegenden Annahmen und Emissionszenarien abhängen. Diese Arbeit leistet einen Beitrag zur aktuellen Klimawandeldiskussion indem sie potentielle Schäden und Nutzen des Klimawandels auf den globalen und den europäischen Agrarsektor quantifizert. Darüber hinaus liefern die stochastische Simulation, sowie die multiplen Simualtionsläufe, ein realistisches Spektrum künftiger potentieller Auswirkungen des Klimawandels. / This study aims to assess potential economic effects of climate change on European agricultural markets at member state level by 2050, focusing on cereal and oilseed markets. The future scenarios include social as well as economic developments derived from two potential emission scenarios. In this modelling framework, crop simulation results of crop productivity changes from the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL, which are based on five individual climate projections, serve as inputs which are administered as a supply shock to the European Simulation Model (ESIM). ESIM is a partial equilibrium model depicting the agricultural sector of the EU in substantial detail. Changes in yields, production quantity and crop prices by the year 2050 are simulated. In order to account for the uncertainty inherent in climate impact assessments, two approaches are considered in this thesis. First, in order to account for climate change increased yield variability, stochasticity is implemented in ESIM, using the method of Gaussian Quadratures. The second method uses the five individual LPJmL outputs to generate a distribution of results. Further, a closely connected purpose of this study is to consider climate change induced adaptation of farmers to changes in the relative profitability of crops. Simulation results indicate, that agricultural productivity in most European countries is positively affected by climate change, at least until the year 2050. However, the degree of impacts vary among crop categories and countries and are also dependent on scenario assumptions. This thesis contributes to the current discussion about climate change impacts by quantifying the potential damages and benefits that may arise from climate change on EU member state level, as well as globally. Further, the stochastic and multiple simulation results based on different future climate and emission projections deliver a more realistic spectrum of potential impacts.

Die Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen verschiedener Politikoptionen auf den Weltzuckermarkt. Dazu wird ein räumliches Preisgleichgewichtsmodell wie von Takayama und Judge vorgeschlagen mit hoher Abdeckung von Regionen und Politiken erstellt. Der Vorteil dieses Modelltyps gegenüber den in bisherigen Analysen verwendeten besteht in seiner Fähigkeit, die Annahme der Ursprungshomogenität (im Gegensatz zu Modellen, die auf dem Armington Ansatz basieren) mit der Möglichkeit zu kombinieren, bilaterale Handelsströme explizit abzubilden. Ein wesentlicher Nachteil ist die quasi-normative Natur des Ansatzes. Nach der Einführung wird zunächst in Kapitel zwei der Weltzuckermarkt detailliert beschrieben und von anderen Agrarmärkten abgegrenzt sowie die Anforderungen an ein Gleichgewichtsmodell des Weltzuckermarktes diskutiert. Dann wird im dritten Kapitel eine Übersicht über verschiedene in der Vergangenheit verwendete Modellansätze gegeben und deren Ergebnisse ausgewertet. Im vierten Kapitel wird ein Überblick die theoretische Entwicklung des Modellansatzes gegeben und schließlich das in der Dissertation verwendete Modell beschrieben. Das Modell umfasst 104 Zucker produzierende und 90 Zucker konsumierende Regionen. Nationale Handels- und Agrarpolitiken sowie eine Vielzahl regionaler und präferentieller Handelsabkommen sind im Modell berücksichtigt. Im zweiten Teil von Kapitel vier wird eine Analyse von vier Szenarien mit dem Modell durchgeführt. Diese umfassen eine Fortführung gegenwärtiger Politiken, ein WTO Abkommen, eine einseitige Liberalisierung des Zuckermarktes der EU sowie eine Liberalisierung der Zuckermärkte aller im Modell vertretenen Länder. Im Abschlusskapitel werden einige Kernergebnisse zusammengefasst und eine Weiterentwicklung des Ansatzes diskutiert. Hier wird insbesondere auf das Problem der Quasi-Normativität eingegangen. / The Dissertation at hand investigates the effects of different policy options on the world sugar market. A Spatial Price Equilibrium Model as suggested by Takayama and Judge is established. This model type has one considerable advantage over previously ap-plied types which is its ability to combine the assumption of homogeneous goods regardless of origin (as opposed to Armington-based models) with the possibility to model bilateral trade flows explicitly. One major drawback of the approach is that is behaves in part like a normative model. After the introductory chapter, a detailed description of the world sugar market and how it distinguishes from markets for other agricultural commodities is given. In this frame-work requirements of a valid equilibrium model of the world sugar market are discussed. In the third chapter various studies of the world sugar market based on equilibrium models are surveyed. In the chapter four the development of the approach of spatial equilibrium modeling finally the model applied in this dissertation are described The model covers 104 sugar pro-ducing and 90 sugar consuming regions. National agricultural and trade policies as well as numerous regional and preferential trade agreements are accounted for. In the second part of chapter four, four scenarios are simulated with the model. These are a reference scenario in which current policies are maintained, a WTO agreement, a unilateral liberalization of sugar policies on the part of the EU as well as a multilateral liberalization of the sugar markets of all countries. In the final chapter, some core results are summarized and further development of the applied approach especially possible solutions for the problem of quasi-normativity are dis-cussed.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Michael W. Woolverton / Globally, the majority of countries now use genetically modified (GM) soybeans to produce oil and meal for livestock and human consumption. Japan, however, uses only Non-GM soybeans for direct human consumption of which more than 80% are imported from the U.S., Canada, and China. This research used the inverse residual demand model to estimate a two-country partial equilibrium trade model to test the existence of market power in the Japanese Non-GM soybean import market. The two-country partial equilibrium trade model incorporated the U.S. residual Non-GM soybean supply for Japan, the Japanese residual demand for U.S. Non-GM soybeans, and the equilibrium condition, where the U.S. residual Non-GM soybean supply equals the Japanese residual Non-GM soybean demand. Monthly data from January 2003 to December 2007 were used for the analysis. Empirical results indicated that U.S. Non-GM soybean exporters have stronger market power than Japanese Non-GM soybean importers. The results also indicate that Japanese consumers are willing to pay higher prices for soybeans, tofu, natto, miso, and other all soy food products.

Agricultural input expenditures have not been widely incorporated in most partial equilibrium models. Thus, investigating the effect of economic policies and other exogenous factors on the agricultural sector will produce only a partial analysis, since the simultaneous impact of these factors on input expenditures is excluded. This study, therefore, extends the existing partial equilibrium multi-market model of the South African agricultural sector (BFAP model) by incorporating agricultural input expenditure. Thus, the analysis of the impact of economic policies on the agricultural sector, which was limited only on the gross income (production, area planted and prices), has now been extended to assess their effects on input expenditures, gross value added and net farming income of the sector. In addition, the analysis is further extended to evaluate the financial and economic position of the agricultural sector by investigating the implications of the policies on the asset and debt values of the sector. The comparative result obtained from the shocks of a crude oil and world fertiliser price rise shows that due to the inclusion of the recursive effect from the output to input side of the sector and vice versa and endogenising input costs, the effect of the shock on gross value added and net farming income converges slowly and cyclically in the recursively linked model, compared to the unlinked model, in which the effect abruptly halts after a single year. Thus, the recursively linked integrated model replicates the dynamics experienced by the agricultural sector better than the recursively unlinked integrated model. In addition, the endogenisation of domestic input costs on the integrated model allows a comprehensive analysis of the effect of macroeconomic variables on the agricultural sector by considering their impact on both outputs and inputs. Thus, using the recursively linked model, a fifty percent devaluation of exchange rate is assessed. The result showed that a depreciation of exchange rate resulted in a net benefit for the sector, as the gain from enhancing agricultural income outweighs the rise in expenditure. Excluding the simultaneous impact on input expenditure would have overestimated the benefit by looking only at its effect on gross income. The integrated model was also used to project a baseline for the South African agricultural sector’s main aggregate variables for the medium term (2010-2015) under the status quo of policy assumptions and forecast values of exogenous variables. The baseline projections of the gross income, intermediate input expenditure and gross value added show a modest average annual growth rate during the baseline period. The net farming income, however, depicts a relatively lower growth due to the general modest rise in agricultural gross income compared with total input expenditure. Based on the projected values of main aggregate variables, several financial and economic performance indicators for the agricultural sector are also projected. In general, the economic performance indicators of the sector, measured by the net return on the sector’s investment and equity, show good performance when compared with the average cost of borrowing during the baseline period. Thus, this study shows that integrating input expenditure in a multi-market output model by recursively linking both sides and endogenising domestic input costs would improve the result of the standard partial equilibrium by generating projections for several key aggregate variables, providing the net effect of economic policies on the agricultural sector and replicating the dynamics of the agricultural sector better than models that have few/no input components or that assess the effects separately and ignore the recursive linkage. Thus, this study provides a powerful modelling tool to be used by policy makers to comprehensively investigate the net effects of economic policies on the agricultural sector and to answer several ‘what if’ questions. / Thesis (DCom)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

The annual budget cycle in urban road/transport authorities by implication requires transport infrastructure projects to be ranked in terms of their relative value, to enable project selection by starting from the most deserving proposal. This follows from the fact that the total cost of feasible projects practically always exceeds available funds, signalling the need for some kind of selection protocol. Cost benefit analysis (CBA), when applied in a narrow sense, is not suitable for this purpose as it focuses on economic efficiency only. Attempts to broaden it have been criticized by some scholars. Although the diversity of impacts points to a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) approach, this is considered unscientific in certain quarters; at best, its practical value needs to be demonstrated. In the case of the City of Tshwane (CoT), problems with current project appraisal are evident in that different methods – none of which is defensible – are used, sometimes resulting in rankings that are contradictory. This thesis therefore attempts the following: (a) to develop a basic approach that combines the best elements of traditional methods; (b) to customize this approach to the specific context and needs of road authorities in the municipal sphere of government, using CoT as an example; and (c) to demonstrate the application of the resulting appraisal framework, utilizing appropriate decision-support software for this purpose. Recommendations include the following: An appraisal framework should combine CBA and MCA by adopting an overall MCA approach with economic efficiency – focusing on the optimal allocation of scarce resources – as one of the decision criteria. For completeness‟ sake, three additional decision criteria are deemed necessary: equity (focusing on income distribution impacts); sustainability (focusing on environmental impacts); and compatibility (focusing on the alignment of projects with stated goals and objectives). This framework may well apply to road authorities in other spheres of government – the optimum application in each case will depend on the composition of the relevant decision-making team. The inherent nature of project appraisal requires a two-phased approach in all cases: the evaluation of mutually exclusive alternatives, followed by the ranking of independent projects. State-of-the-art decision support software is indispensable for implementing this framework. / Transport Economics / D. Com. (Transport Economics)