Dresdens Energieversorgung ist zu über 80% von Öl und Gas abhängig. Über ein Drittel davon kommt aus Russland. Die hohe Energieabhängigkeit gilt es angesichts politischer Krisen sowie angesichts Peak Oil und Peak Gas zu überdenken. Dresden braucht eine erweiterte Energiestrategie.:Dresdens Energieversorgung vor dem Hintergrund russischer Energielieferungen ... 1 Öl- und Gasverbrauch in Dresden ... 2 Öl- und Gaslieferanten Deutschlands ... 3 Europas Öl- und Gasförderung ... 5 Russlands Öl- und Gasförderung ... 7 Risiken für die russischen Energielieferungen ... 8 Kurzfristige Risiken: Die Ukraine-Krise ... 8 Mittel- bis langfristige Risiken ... 10 Schlußfolgerungen für Dresden ... 10 Zwischenfazit: Beschränkte Energieversorgungssicherheit ... 10 Global denken, lokal handeln ... 11 Politische Aspekte: Neue Rahmenbedingungen anerkennen ... 11 Technische und wirtschaftliche Aspekte: Methan und Resilienz ... 12

L’épuisement des énergies fossiles est un thème d’actualité dont les prémices datent, selon l’opinion courante, des années 1970 et du premier choc pétrolier. En réalité, c’est une préoccupation plus ancienne, intimement liée à l’ère industrielle. Dans la deuxième partie du XIXème siècle, les économistes se sont penchés sur la question de l'épuisement des minerais, ‘objet non identifié’ jusqu'alors et nécessitant la mise sur pied de nouveaux outils d'analyse (effet-rebond chez Jevons, rente minière chez Marshall-Einaudi notamment). Avec le progrès des techniques et l'apparition de nouvelles énergies (pétrole, hydro-électricité), leurs craintes de déclin industriel se sont progressivement dissipées dans les années 1910 et 1920. Mais ces évolutions tenant à l’histoire des faits ne sont pas les seules à considérer. Des facteurs internes à la discipline économique, comme l'émergence du marginalisme dans les années 1870 et de la théorie de l'épargne et du capital dans les années 1890, ont aussi changé le regard des économistes sur la question de l'épuisement des ressources. Pourquoi ? Comment ? Quels enseignements peut-on en tirer pour les défis environnementaux d'aujourd'hui ? Voilà les questions qui sont traitées dans ce travail de thèse. / Fossil fuels exhaustion is a current topic. It is often said that its first presages appeared in the 1970s with the first oil shock. Actually, this exhaustion fear is much older than that, it started with the Industrial Revolution and kept going since then. In the second part of the 19th century, some economists focused their attention on the mineral resources depletion, which was at the time an ‘unknown item’ that necessitated the creation of new concepts and new analytical tools to deal with (for example Jevons’ rebound-effect, Marshall-Einaudi’s mining rent). In the 1910s and 1920s, thanks to technical progress and the development of new energies (oil, hydro-electricity), their fears about industrial decline progressively dissipated. Yet, these factual evolutions are not the only ones to consider. Internal factors, inside economic science (marginalism in the 1870s, capital theory in the 1890s), also shaped economists’ viewpoint on resources exhaustion. Why? How? What lessons can we get from this period for our current environmental challenges? These are the questions that are studied in this thesis.

This dissertation analogically applies a framework of minor literary analysis to uniquely political units of the built environment. As urbanism is conventionally understood to be executed per the greatest utility of established communal objectives, an underlying politicization is inherent as such forms must adhere to dominant norms of development which potentially marginalize those who practice cultural methods outside normative standards. Employing a uniquely architectural method of environmental justice advocacy, select communities facing disenfranchisement react by self-producing urban-architectural forms ("UAFs") to protect threatened cultural values from marginalization. Installed to subvert the existing power dynamic, such UAFs are potential exhibitions of minor architecture. Adopting the analytical standards established by Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari for evaluating Franz Kafka's literature, this paper tests six UAFs to discover if a minor architecture is possible under contemporary globalization. Employing an enumerated framework of minor production characteristics, an interpretive-historical analysis is the primary method of judgment regarding each unit's execution of minor architecture. Two secondary tests are undertaken to validate the primary findings, the first of which is a physio-logical evaluation that characterizes and measures urban resource utility as per collective minority aims. Second, a newspaper correlation test is undertaken so as to judge the enunciative effectiveness of each community per issues of minority politics. Of the six cases examined, two have their source in cinema including "Bartertown" of MAD MAX BEYOND THUNDERDOME (1985) and the "House on Paper Street" of FIGHT CLUB (1999). The four remaining cases include the Tibetan Government-in-Exile of Dharamsala, India; Student Bonfire of Robertson County, Texas; Isla Vista Recreation & Park District of Santa Barbara County, California; and the Emergent Cannabis Community of Arcata, California. Of all the cases studied, only the Tibetan Government-in-Exile met both the conditions of minor architecture and was validated in terms of practiced urban resource use as well as effective representation in mainstream newsprint. Both cinematic cases failed as minor productions of the built environment. Although they did not find full validation, the three remaining real-world UAFs each were found on a course of minor architectural expression at varying stages of execution.

Globalization and industrial agriculture have enabled consumers in Sweden and other countries in the Western world to enjoy foodstuffs from many parts of the world at very affordable monetary prices, but at the same time involving a lot of external costs in the form of environmental degradation, and a high dependency on foreign agricultural ecosystems as well as on oil and other non-renewable inputs, thus degrading sustainability and resilience in the food system. Accelerated climate change and the upcoming peak oil crisis call for a reorientation and a transition to a more locally-based system. The prospects for a re-localized food system have been investigated in a case study of Uppsala Municipality, Sweden. The results consist of a study of the current primary food production in Uppsala, also including an allotment garden survey, a study of how much additional food may be produced on idle land, and an analysis of opportunities and challenges for a re-localized food system in Uppsala. The allotment garden survey revealed that c. ten percent of the total area of plots containing cottage houses was used for food production, while the figure for plots without cottages was several times higher, c. 65 percent. The total estimated yield for allotment gardens in Uppsala Municipality was about 90 tons of vegetables and 48 tons of fruits and berries. Quantitative calculations on the yield produced by local farmers, horticulturists and leisure gardeners were made for the five categories grain, dairy products, eggs, meat, and vegetables, fruits and berries, together constituting about 85 percent of the total Swedish food consumption. The estimated balance of supply and demand differed a lot between food categories, ranging from 400 percent for grain to 20 percent for meat as well as for vegetables, fruits and berries. Due to empirical uncertainty, the latter figure should be interpreted with caution. For eggs and dairy products the balance of supply and demand was 67 percent and 50 percent respectively. A quantitative estimation for idle land showed that the greatest potential for an increased food production is within leisure gardening, which could be increased by 3.5 to 6 times. A transition to full self-sufficiency would, however, require drastically altered consumer habits towards seasonal vegetables and fruits and less beef in favor of vegetarian proteins. The qualitative analysis of possibilities and obstacles concluded that the greatest assets for a re-localized food production were the large production capacity within rural agriculture, the abundance of mostly unutilized private garden land, the increased interest for urban agriculture among the population, positive attitudes among consumers towards local food, and a relatively high general awareness of climate change and the need for a more sustainable society. Among the challenges were found lacking economic viability and access to suitable farmland, the centralized food industry, an imbalanced agricultural output, unsustainable consumer habits, the tendency among Swedish municipal planners to support exploitation of fertile soil, and a low awareness among both the population and decision makers regarding peak oil and social resilience generally. / Globaliseringen och det industriella jordbruket har möjliggjort för konsumenter i Sverige och andra västländer att få tillgång till matvaror till låga priser och från många olika delar av världen. Samtidigt har detta medfört ett högt pris i form av miljöförsämringar och ett stort beroende av utländsk jordbruksproduktion, samt av olja och andra råvaror som inte är förnybara. Resultatet har blivit ett livsmedelssystem med urholkad hållbarhet och ökad sårbarhet. Accelererande klimatförändringar och den kommande krisen i samband med oljetoppen manar till nyorientering och en övergång till ett mer lokalbaserat system. Denna fallstudie av Uppsala kommun har undersökt utsikterna att återknyta matproduktionen till lokala system. Resultaten omfattar både en studie av den nuvarande matproduktionen i Uppsala, vilken även inkluderade en enkätundersökning av kolonilotter, en studie av potentialen att öka matproduktionen på mark som idag inte används aktivt för det ändamålet, samt en analys av möjligheter och utmaningar för en lokal matproduktion i Uppsala. Enkätundersökningen visade att på kolonilotter med stugor användes ca tio procent av den totala ytan för matproduktion, medan motsvarande siffra för kolonilotter utan stugor var flera gånger högre, ca 65 procent. Den totala skörden för alla kommunala kolonilotter i Uppsala uppskattades till 90 ton grönsaker och 48 ton frukt och bär. För den totala matproduktionen från jordbruket, trädgårdsnäringen och fritidsodlingen gjordes beräkningar för fem olika kategorier: Spannmål, mejeriprodukter, ägg, kött samt grönsaker, frukt och bär, som tillsammans utgör ca 85 procent av den totala svenska matkonsumtionen. Den uppskattade försörjningsbalansen varierade starkt mellan olika kategorier, från 400 procent för spannmål till 20 procent för kött samt för grönsaker, frukt och bär. Osäkerheten kring det vetenskapliga underlaget gällande fritidsodlingen är dock stort, vilket gör att siffrorna för grönsaker, frukt och bär bör tolkas försiktigt. För ägg och mejeriprodukter var försörjningsbalansen 67 procent respektive 50 procent. Studien av obrukad mark visade att den största potentialen för en ökad matproduktion finns inom fritidsodlingen, som beräknades skulle kunna öka med 3.5 till 6 gånger. En övergång till full självförsörjning skulle dock kräva drastiska förändringar i konsumtionsvanorna mot säsongsbetonade grönsaker och frukt samt mindre nötkött till förmån för mer vegetabiliskt protein. Analysen av möjligheter och utmaningar för en återgång till en mer lokal matproduktion pekade på att de största fördelarna är den stora produktionskapaciteten inom jordbruket, den stora sammanlagda arealen privat trädgårdsmark som till stor del är outnyttjad för matproduktion, det ökande intresset för stadsodling bland befolkningen, positiva attityder till lokal mat bland konsumenter, och en relativt hög medvetenhet kring klimatförändringar och behovet av ett mer hållbart samhälle. Bland de viktigaste utmaningarna fanns den bristande ekonomiska lönsamheten inom yrkesodlingen, den centraliserade livsmedelsindustrin, obalansen inom jordbruksproduktionen, med överskott på spannmål och underskott på andra livsmedelsråvaror, ohållbara konsumtionsvanor, tendenser hos svenska kommunala tjänstemän att stödja exploatering av bördig mark, samt den låga graden av medvetenhet hos både befolkningen och beslutsfattarna kring oljetoppen och samhällets sårbarhet generellt.

There is mounting evidence that sustainable scale thresholds are now being exceeded worldwide and environmental resource shocks (e.g. climate change, water and oil shortages) may be inevitable in some regions of the world in the near future. These could result in severe economic breakdowns, welfare loss, and in the worst-case, the collapse of modern civilization. Therefore, a pre-eminent challenge of our times is to determine how to design a resilient (safe-fail) economy – one that can endure, adapt to and successfully recover from breakdowns when they occur. Surprisingly, while ecological economic theory relies heavily on natural science concepts such as thermodynamics, insufficient attention has been paid to the important ecological concept of resilience, particularly as it applies to economic design. The three major policy goals of current ecological economic theory (sustainable scale, just distribution and efficient allocation) focus instead on preventing environmental resource shocks and breakdowns, but given their unpredictability prevention may not always be possible. How resilience can inform the blossoming field of ecological economics is thus explored in this theoretical, transdisciplinary paper. Drawing on literature as diverse as archaeology and disaster planning, it develops six key principles of economic resilience and applies them to analyze the resilience of key societal systems including our money, electricity, water, transportation, information/communication and emergency response systems. Overall, economic resilience appears to be a unique concern that is not readily subsumed under any of the three existing ecological economic policy pillars. In fact, efforts to build in resilience have the potential to both complement and at times contradict the other three goals, especially efficiency. The need to further study these possible tradeoffs provides strong justification for adding a fourth distinct policy pillar, namely “Resilient Design”, to core ecological economic theory. Indeed, ecological economist’s longstanding criticism of economic growth meshes readily with the Resilience Alliance’s own figure-8 adaptive cycle theory critiquing the resilience costs of growth, providing significant opportunities for the future collaboration of these two fields in broadening global system theory.

The discipline of Sociology has been quiet regarding the production of food by industrial agriculture. However, there are issues that potentially undermine the ability of industrial agriculture to continue to produce food at the same rate. These issues include: global climate change, aquifer depletion, soil erosion and exhaustion, the increase in global production of meat, the ever expanding global population and peak oil. This thesis considers how these issues will affect Manitoba’s agriculture, Manitoba’s ability to adapt to a period of change and its ability to continue to feed its population. Unstructured interviews with expert informants allowed for the collection of data that are not readily available. These data are combined with pre-existing data to assemble an agricultural profile. There are two competing theories within the current dialogue: limits-to-growth and ecological modernization. Ultimately, the food procurement practices will be assessed with reference to the limits-to-growth theory and recommendations will be made.

The discipline of Sociology has been quiet regarding the production of food by industrial agriculture. However, there are issues that potentially undermine the ability of industrial agriculture to continue to produce food at the same rate. These issues include: global climate change, aquifer depletion, soil erosion and exhaustion, the increase in global production of meat, the ever expanding global population and peak oil. This thesis considers how these issues will affect Manitoba’s agriculture, Manitoba’s ability to adapt to a period of change and its ability to continue to feed its population. Unstructured interviews with expert informants allowed for the collection of data that are not readily available. These data are combined with pre-existing data to assemble an agricultural profile. There are two competing theories within the current dialogue: limits-to-growth and ecological modernization. Ultimately, the food procurement practices will be assessed with reference to the limits-to-growth theory and recommendations will be made.

There is mounting evidence that sustainable scale thresholds are now being exceeded worldwide and environmental resource shocks (e.g. climate change, water and oil shortages) may be inevitable in some regions of the world in the near future. These could result in severe economic breakdowns, welfare loss, and in the worst-case, the collapse of modern civilization. Therefore, a pre-eminent challenge of our times is to determine how to design a resilient (safe-fail) economy – one that can endure, adapt to and successfully recover from breakdowns when they occur. Surprisingly, while ecological economic theory relies heavily on natural science concepts such as thermodynamics, insufficient attention has been paid to the important ecological concept of resilience, particularly as it applies to economic design. The three major policy goals of current ecological economic theory (sustainable scale, just distribution and efficient allocation) focus instead on preventing environmental resource shocks and breakdowns, but given their unpredictability prevention may not always be possible. How resilience can inform the blossoming field of ecological economics is thus explored in this theoretical, transdisciplinary paper. Drawing on literature as diverse as archaeology and disaster planning, it develops six key principles of economic resilience and applies them to analyze the resilience of key societal systems including our money, electricity, water, transportation, information/communication and emergency response systems. Overall, economic resilience appears to be a unique concern that is not readily subsumed under any of the three existing ecological economic policy pillars. In fact, efforts to build in resilience have the potential to both complement and at times contradict the other three goals, especially efficiency. The need to further study these possible tradeoffs provides strong justification for adding a fourth distinct policy pillar, namely “Resilient Design”, to core ecological economic theory. Indeed, ecological economist’s longstanding criticism of economic growth meshes readily with the Resilience Alliance’s own figure-8 adaptive cycle theory critiquing the resilience costs of growth, providing significant opportunities for the future collaboration of these two fields in broadening global system theory.

Many urban poor are living lifestyles prescient of a future with little to no accessible fossil fuels, a future lacking easy access to electricity, flowing water, and food security. Scientists such as David Holmgren warn that the rest of society may face a similar scenario. According to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO 2008), the peak of oil discovery happened in the 1960’s. In 1981 the world started using more than what was found in new fields and since then the gap between discovery and production has been ever widening, many countries have already passed their peak, which indicates that a global peak is imminent. This dissertation investigates a new typology for urban living. An area south of Marabastad, in the north-western quadrant of the city of Pretoria is selected as the wasted landscape for testing the hypothesis that a drosscape has the potential to be designed and developed into an agrarian conservancy to support a society in need of sustainable, innovative places. Part One of the dissertation investigates agriculture as a method for returning the site to some utilitarian efficiency. However, landscapes contain the potential to be more than functional tracts of land with no meaning. Thus Part Two of the dissertation investigates the fact that a creative approach to the implementation of city farming in the Steenovenspruit drosscape can ingrain in the modern industrial city a place with which the inhabitants can identify, where form does not only follow function but also enhances and expresses the celebration of man’s working relationship with the land, as well as celebrating the historic traces evident on the landscape. A palimpsest emerges out of the faint residue of past uses, displaying traces of the character the site once had. The dissertation proposes that by capturing the essence of these past layers of productive use and further enriching the palimpsest by introducing traces of farming and gardens, meaning and experiential use of the land will be returned to the people of Marabastad. The dissertation also proposes that through this experiential use the community is once again able to leave traces on the landscape and lift the site out of limbo and once again into the process of place-making, or refounding. A conservancy is proposed for the Steenovenspruit drosscape which combines the concept of palimpsest and the poetic nature of farming across a number of city blocks, connecting Marabastad and the CBD. The conservancy encapsulates a variety of land uses including residential and gathering traces, however the core of the conservancy centres around a historical city block which formed part of the old Pretoria townlands and which morphs once again into productive landscape. / Dissertation ML(Prof)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Architecture / ML(Prof) / Unrestricted

Der enorme Ölverbrauch in allen Teilen der Welt bringt uns dem globalen Ölfördermaximum (Peak Oil) jeden Tag ein Stück näher. Der Peak Oil ist der Zeitpunkt, an dem sich die Ölförderung nicht mehr steigern lässt. Nach dem Höhepunkt des Ölzeitalters beginnt ein steiniger Abstieg. Sachsen ist auf diese Entwicklung überhaupt nicht vorbereitet. Das ist gefährlich, denn nicht nur der Verkehr, die Landwirtschaft oder der Tourismus setzen auf dauerhaft billiges Öl. Die heutigen Geschäftsmodelle aller Unternehmen erwarten, dass Öl billig und jederzeit verfügbar ist.