Part I examines the global rise of both public and private debt and its recent manifestations in the US housing bubble and the financial panic of 2007-8. A review of the most popular theories of the debt crisis is provided, including an explication of securitized banking and economic theory. The underlying condition of increasing ecological and energetic scarcity is accorded central significance in the broad trajectory of world growth and debt, Part II explicates systems theories of social order and the social significance of markets. The theories of Niklas Luhmann, Talcott Parsons, Mario Bunge, Anthony Giddens, and Jürgen Habermas are evaluated with respect to their theories of social order and crisis. A central finding is that, although declining rates of exergy production inhibit the global economic recovery as measured by conventional economic tools, this fact is not likely to be widely recognized. A central theme of Part II is how social systems handle uncertainty, risk, and to what extent complex social systems can be regulated normatively by the public sphere. As global society becomes increasingly interconnected and dependent upon the depletion of material and energy resources, the communication channels that facilitate the self-understanding of modern society at the same time proliferate, becoming increasingly disconnected and self-referential. Luhmann’s systems theory is used to explain why collective recognition and action is at once rendered more necessary and increasingly unlikely given the complexity of global society that Earth’s terrestrial stock of nonrenewable energy resources has engendered.

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important. The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter. A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR). However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf. The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production. In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.

Several scenarios point toward a future where we are far more people on Earth than today, where most of those people will live in cities and where oil no longer dominates in the transport systems and in agriculture as an energy source and where less energy will be available to us. The report investigates what areas in traditional ecological knowledge that can contribute to the transition that follows a future with less energy and establishes three areas with the potential of becoming important:   areaspecific biological knowledge in societies that are more dependent upon its surrounding environment and its natural prerequisites the local management of these biological resources, which often means a fair sharing and sustainable handling of the resources and which has been observed in Nobel price awarded Elinor Ostrom’s research the world views that lie behind how the environment is considered and managed, world views that can inspire and point toward how we in the future should formulate world views that do not give the destructive modern management of the environment   It is also noted that the magnitude of the city living in the future is a historical news and that very little research has been done in how traditional knowledge can be transferred into this kind of living.

Av två anledningar anses det som mycket viktigt att bryta beroendet av olja, naturgas och kol. Den första anledningen är de uppmärksammade klimatförändringarna. Förbränning av fossila bränslen anges idag som huvudorsak till växthuseffekten. Den andra mindre uppmärksammade orsaken är att oljan och naturgasen snart inte räcker till för att föda en allt energihungrigare värld. Utvinningen ser dessutom ut att ha nåt sin kulmen. Efter denna kommer en oundviklig produktionsnedgång. Med det stora beroendet som finns av oljan inom i stort sett alla sektorer är det ytterst viktigt att hitta andra alternativ. Speciellt gäller detta inom transportområdet. Förhoppningen står idag till ”gröna” drivmedel som etanol och biodiesel. IEA (International Energy Agency) har uppmanat de västerländska nationerna att satsa stort på biobränslen. I denna studie görs en analys av de förutsättningar som finns att bygga ut produktionen av denna i USA, Brasilien och Malaysia/Indonesien. Syftet har varit att ta reda på om det är möjligt att göra detta utan att inkräkta på andra näringar, inte skada miljön samt vara oberoende av fossil energi? Den bakomliggande teorin är att detta inte låter sig göras i den omfattning som krävs för att bibehålla de nuvarande samhällsstrukturerna. Detta visar sig också stämma med de uppgifter som står till buds. Endast en fraktion av det nuvarande drivmedelsbehovet går att försörja med biodrivmedel om det inte ska uppstå en allvarlig konkurrens om odlingsmarken eller orsaka stora ekologiska skador.

This thesis is about researching methods/testing approaches to inhabiting/existing in a post-growth Norrland, the collective term for Sweden’s most northerly counties. With neo-liberal capitalism lurching from crisis to crisis, modernity, progress and the state are in trouble. Small shops close, iconic buildings are constructed, agriculture, the most vital of industries, is collapsing and competition is the watchword. If peak-oil, the consumer culture and individualism combine to lead us into a dystopian slough, what is the alternative? This work aims to investigate and show the existing conditions that are producing the current state of affairs in Norrland, with emphasis on Röbäck, one of Umeå’s agricultural satellites cum dormitory suburbs. This research will provide the necessities for dreamed proposals about a possible post-growth future, integrating alternative views of technology and modes of living with the ethos of the common and our use of shared resources.

This is a tale about energy and power. It describes the geographer Halford Mackinder’s geopolitical theories and compares them with current views outlined by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Michael T Klare, among others. With a critical approach it also provides a historical account of a Europe that stands in front of an energy struggle so severe that the current world order seems destined to fall. Oil and natural gas, has since the beginning of the 20th century, been used as a geopolitical tool in order to create dependence, control and even sometimes overthrow empires. USA has for example dominated the “protectorates” Europe and Japan by controlling the flow of oil in the Middle East. But this seems to change. It can’t be ruled out that the cities of Europe in the long run will be shrouded in darkness. The background is that Europe’s own deposits of fossil energy are decreasing at such vast speed that almost the entire demand will have to be imported by the year 2020. Awareness of this forecast, and the undertaking to reduce the carbon emissions in accordance with the Kyoto treaty, led to a grand proclamation in March 2007 to reduce the need for fossil fuels. This commitment seems however to be insufficient if independence towards other regions shall be maintained. Only a small part of the demand can be met by domestically produced fuels. Neither will the proposed energy reducing measures increase the energy security. The conclusion is that there is no time to develop new technology in order to save Europe from its difficult situation. The dependence on Russia will instead grow stronger. The current geopolitical order, where the United States has acted as a military protector and guarantor of the energy security, looks like it is going to fall. The US is bogged down in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars at the same time as Europe’s dependence on energy from the East grows. The US also has economic troubles and their own energy security dilemma. Russia has on the other hand acted with greater self confidence and purposefully built alliances with China, the Middle East and its former republics in Central Asia. Russia may soon dictate the future of Europe with its energy trump card. If Europe keeps its alliance with US and tries to challenge or subjugate Russia into its “unipolar” order it will deepen the risk for conflict. In such a conflict, Moscow has the power to darken and cool down the European room. Since every country is dependent on the dwindling energy resources for their survival, it may escalate into a full blown war. But the new order may be short. Within two decades there will probably be no surplus of energy to export for Russia, or any other nation for that matter. Europe will by then be without it’s own energy resources and simultaneously lose the option to import. / Det här är en berättelse om energi och makt. Den beskriver geografen Halford Mackinders geopolitiska teorier från början av 1900-talet och jämför dem med moderna uppfattningar från bland annat Zbigniew Brzezinski och Michael T Klare. Med en kritisk utgångspunkt ges även en historia om ett Europa som står inför en så svår energiutmaning att den nuvarande ordningen ser ut att falla. Sedan oljan och senare naturgasen började nyttjas har energin använts som ett geopolitiskt verktyg för att skapa beroenden, kontroll och även för att störta imperier i sank. USA har exempelvis dominerat sina ”protektorat” Europa och Japan genom att kontrollera oljeflödet från Mellanöstern. Men detta ser ut att förändras. I förlängningen går det inte utesluta att mörkret permanent lägger sig över Europas städer. Bakgrunden är att de egna lagren av fossil energi minskar i en sådan takt att i stort sett hela behovet måste importeras inom 20 år. Medvetenheten om detta, samt åtagandet att minska koldioxidutsläppen i enlighet med Kyotoavtalet, gjorde att EU i mars 2007 proklamerade att en stor satsning skulle vidtas för att reducera behovet av fossila bränslen. Denna satsning visar sig dock vara otillräcklig för att upprätthålla ett oberoende från andra regioner. Endast en mindre del av behovet kan tillgodoses med inhemskt producerade bränslen. Inte heller de energisparande åtgärderna kan dramatiskt höja energisäkerheten. Tiden är alltför knapp för att ny fantastisk teknik ska kunna rädda Europa ur sin besvärliga situation. Istället blir beroendet av Ryssland allt större. Detta leder till att den rådande geopolitiska ordningen, där USA både har agerat som Europas militära beskyddare och garant av energisäkerheten, riskerar att falla ihop. Samtidigt som Europa blir mer beroende av energin från öst går USA:s krig i Irak och Afghanistan allt sämre. USA har även ekonomiska bekymmer och ett eget energisäkerhetsproblem. Ryssland har i sin tur agerat med allt större självaktning och målmedvetet byggt allianser med Kina, Mellanöstern och sina forna delrepubliker i Centralasien. Med energin som trumfkort kan Ryssland komma att diktera EU:s framtid. Om EU bibehåller sin allians med USA och försöker utmana eller inlemma Ryssland i sin ”unipolära” ordning ökar risken för en allvarlig konflikt. Moskva har i ett sådant läge makt att både mörklägga och kyla ner det europeiska rummet. Eftersom alla behöver energin för sin överlevnad finns en risk att en marsch inleds mot ett fullskaligt krig. Den nya ordningen kan dock bli kort. Inom två decennier kan troligtvis inte längre Ryssland – eller någon annan region – exportera ett överskott. Europa kommer då att sakna både egna energiresurser samt importmöjligheter för att driva sina energisystem. Vad som då händer med det gamla Europa återstår att se.

Peak oil is the claimed moment in time when global oil production reaches its maximum rate and henceforth forever declines. It is highly controversial as to whether or not peak oil represents cause for serious concern. My thesis explores how this controversy unfolds but brackets the ontological status of the reality indexed by the peak-oil concept. I do not choose a side in the debate; I look at the debate itself. I examine the energy outlook documents of ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Total and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as academic articles and documentaries. Through an in-depth analysis of peak-oil controversy via tenets of actor-network theory (ANT), I show that what is at stake are competing framings of reality itself, which must be understood when engaging with the contentious idea of peak oil. / Graduate

Energi i form av olja möjliggjorde under 1950- talet en mekanisering av skogsbruket. Accelererande klimatförändringar ställer nu krav på att den fossila energin som skogsmaskinerna är beroende av måste ersättas. Syftet med uppsatsen är att utifrån ett kulturperspektiv undersöka hur Sveriges skogsägarföreningar kommer att påverkas av den förändrade tillgången till energi. För att besvara syftet genomfördes fem djupintervjuer. Studien visar att skogsägarföreningarna har en kulturellt präglad bilda av miljön som formbar och att förändringen främst ses som en möjlighet att framställa bioenergi för att bryta den sjunkande produktiviteten. Kulturkrockar uppstår därför med miljörörelser som har en annan syn på hur skog ska användas. Skogsmaskinernas dieselberoende utgör samtidigt en stor svaghet som kan komma att hindra en fortsatt expansionen eftersom skogsägarföreningarna är termodynamiskt bundna. / Energy in the form of oil allowed a mechanization process to take place during the 1950:s. Accelerating climate changes is now demanding that the fossil fuels in the forestry machines must be replaced. The purpose of this paper is that from a cultural perspective; examine how the Swedish forest owners' associations will be affected by the change in access to energy. To answer the question five in depth interviews were conducted. The study shows that the forest owners' associations have a culturally imprinted picture of the environment as malleable and the change is mainly seen as an opportunity to produce bioenergy in order to reverse the declining productivity. Cultural clashes therefore occur with the environmental movements which have a different vision on how forests should be used. The diesel depending forestry machines also constitutes a major weakness that may impede the continued expansion as the forest owners' associations are thermodynamically bound.

No description available.

Dresdens Energieversorgung ist zu über 80% von Öl und Gas abhängig. Über ein Drittel davon kommt aus Russland. Die hohe Energieabhängigkeit gilt es angesichts politischer Krisen sowie angesichts Peak Oil und Peak Gas zu überdenken. Dresden braucht eine erweiterte Energiestrategie.