Since Hubbert proposed the "peak oil" concept to forecast ultimate recovery of crude oil for the U.S. and the world, there have been countless debates over the timing of peak world conventional oil production rate and ultimate recovery. From review of the literature, forecasts were grouped into those that are like Hubbert's with an imminent peak, and those that do not predict an imminent peak. Both groups have bases for their positions. Viewpoints from the two groups are polarized and the rhetoric is pointed and sometimes personal. A big reason for the large divide between the two groups is the failure of both to acknowledge the significant uncertainty in their estimates. Although some authors attempt to quantify uncertainty, most use deterministic methods and present single values, with no ranges. This research proposes that those that do attempt to quantify uncertainty underestimate it significantly. The objective of this thesis is to rigorously quantify the uncertainty in estimates of ultimate world conventional oil production and time to peak rate. Two different methodologies are used. The first is a regression technique based on historical production data using Hubbert's model and the other methodology uses mathematical models. However, I conduct the analysis probabilistically, considering errors in both the data and the model, which results in likelihood probability distributions for world conventional oil production and time to peak rate. In the second method, I use a multiple-experts analysis to combine estimates from the multitude of papers presented in the literature, yielding an overall distribution of estimated world conventional oil production. Giving due consideration to uncertainty, Hubbert-type mathematical modeling results in large uncertainty ranges that encompass both groups of forecasts (imminent peak and no imminent peak). These ranges are consistent with those from the multiple-experts analysis. In short, the industry does not have enough information at this time to say with any reliability what the ultimate world conventional oil production will be. It could peak soon, somewhere in the distant future, or somewhere in between. It would be wise to consider all of these possible outcomes in planning and making decisions regarding capital investment and formulation of energy policy.

This thesis is submitted as a PhD by Publication. Part A provides an overview of the thesis and summarises its context, research questions, methodological approach and key findings. Part B is a collection of nine, first-named academic papers. The thesis addresses two highly complex and controversial questions within energy policy, namely the nature and magnitude of ‘rebound effects’ from energy efficiency improvements and the extent and rate of depletion of global oil resources. Both of these questions are critically important to the development of a sustainable energy system and both are the subject of long-standing and highly polarised disputes. The thesis adapts, develops and applies a common methodology for reviewing the evidence on these questions, supplements this with original primary research and syntheses the results in a way that improves understanding and provides new insights. The thesis includes four papers examining different aspects of rebound effects and four examining different aspects of global oil depletion. Given the complexity of the chosen topics, the papers cover a wide range of questions, issues and approaches. Collectively the papers: clarify relevant definitional and conceptual issues; evaluate competing methodological and analytical techniques; appraise the methodological quality of empirical studies; identify levels of uncertainty and potential sources of bias; develop simple mathematical models; conduct statistical analyses of primary data; compare and evaluate the results of modelling studies; and synthesise results from multiple research areas to provide novel insights into poorly understood phenomena. A ninth paper evaluates the strengths and limitations of systematic review techniques when applied to complex, policy-relevant questions such as these. The thesis draws two main conclusions. First, rebound effects are frequently large and can substantially reduce the energy and carbon savings achieved from improved energy efficiency. Second, there is a significant risk that the global production of conventional oil will enter sustained decline before 2020. These conclusions run counter to conventional wisdom and have significant implications for public policy. The thesis also shows how the methodology of systematic reviews can be adapted and modified to make a valuable contribution to energy and climate policy research.

Transport plays a vital role in society, and energy for transport relies on fossil fuels. However, the future of the transport system is uncertain due to a concept relating to the diminishing supply of fossil fuels, termed ‘peak oil’. Transport policy makers have an important role to play in planning for a possible reduction in the availability of fossil fuels, however it remains unclear how they perceive the issue, exactly who or what influences their perception, and even if they are prepared (or not) to put in place measures that could minimise the potential impacts. It is vital that we understand all the factors and the actors involved in transport policy making, in order to understand why this issue is not currently widely accepted as part of mainstream transport policy. A conceptual model and theoretical framework have been developed to outline a method for gaining a better understanding of the characteristics of, and influences on, the transport policy makers at a local level, and how they view the peak oil problem. In order to test the theoretical framework, a series of case studies were conducted in three cities of varying sizes in New Zealand. The case studies involved interviews and surveys with transport policy makers. The results of the case study established that many technical staff have major concerns about peak oil but their concerns are not translated into policy because the majority of elected officials, who give the final approval on policy, believe that alternative fuels and new technologies will mitigate any peak oil impacts. This view is reinforced by a lack of scientific evidence to the contrary, and a lack of political and financial support from Central government to plan for peak oil. A change in attitude towards peak oil by Central government is a pre-requisite to introducing planning for peak oil at the local level in New Zealand.

The purpose of the thesis at hand is to shed light on factors that will have impact on the future development of the tourism industry and the importance of preparing for them.  The main issue is the future availability of oil and the subsequent behaviour of consumers. In order to answer the questions posed for the purpose of the thesis at hand a number of interviews were carried out with people working in the tourism industry as well as people working within administrative authorities focused on environmental issues. In order to deepen the understanding for the topic of the thesis at hand extensive literary reviews were made and out of that material a state of the art was composed. In addition to this a number of theories on consumption and consumerism were used.  The empirical material showed that there were a number of factors that need to be dealt with in order for the tourism industry to be prepared for what might happen in the future. The future of the tourism industry is bright at least when considering the predictions of increasing arrival numbers and the revenue it will bring. On the other hand the tourism industry is facing many challenges in the future some of which cause more concern than others. For example tourism is greatly dependent on various forms of transportation in order to function. And transportation, especially aviation, is dependent on fuel to function. This means that when tourism increases so does transportation and with it oil consumption. Researchers are now predicting that the oil reserves are running out and that the risk of reaching a peak in oil production is drawing closer. At the moment the solutions to this problem are few and the fact that tourism is increasing steadily is not helping. The suggestion put forth in the thesis at hand is that consumption behaviours of tourists need to change in order to secure a sustainable future.   Tourism is a form of consumption and consumption is a natural part of human life and a function that is continuous. The way we consume naturally has consequences on many different levels in society. However the negative consequences related to consumption of tourism are shaping what our future will look like. Thus it is time for change.

I den här uppsatsen behandlas ämnet självförsörjningsmöjligheter i bostadsområdet Rosendal i Uppsala. Utgångspunkten skrivs utifrån en ökad brist på fossila energimedel och dess konsekvenser för dagens livsmedelsstruktur vilket idag är beroende av olja. Syftet med uppsatsen är således att ta reda på hur väl bostadsområdet Rosendal är utformat för en omställning till brist på fossila bränslen, där självförsörjning ses som en viktig del för befolkningens överlevnad. För att undersöka självförsörjningsmöjligheterna i området Rosendal utfördes observationer och skriftliga intervjuer med boende i området. Med utgångspunkt i läst litteratur formulerades egna kriterier angående ämnet om ett fungerande lokalt självförsörjande. Resultatet av undersökningen blev att Rosendal inte uppfyller de formulerade kriterierna för en fungerande självförsörjning och att det inte ges ut någon information angående odlingsmöjligheter till de som bor i området. Fler åtgärder och processer behöver därför genomföras gällande odlingsfunktioner i bostadsområden för att uppnå en hållbar utveckling där nästa generationens medborgare försäkras en tillgång på livsmedel. Förslagsvis bör regeringen ge tydligare mål angående en god bebyggd miljö där självförsörjningsfunktioner i bostadsområdet ställs som ett kriterium för hållbart byggande. Information till befolkningen angående den eventuella minskningen av fossila energimedel såsom olja är likväl relevant för att starta processen mot ett fossilfritt samhälle.

This thesis provides a critical review of the Transition movement, a grassroots response to peak oil and climate change, co-founded by this author. It focuses on two key aspects of the Transition approach, resilience and economic relocalisation, with the aim of analysing whether and how they can be implemented in a locality based on the Transition approach, and assessing what socio-economic and community-related structures would be necessary to implement such a process. The focus of the research is Totnes, Devon, which because of its status as the UK’s first Transition initiative and the longer history of various initiatives to promote local resilience, offers a valuable case study of attempts to practically implement resilience and localisation. A variety of research methods were employed, including surveys, focus groups, oral history and in-depth interviews, as well less conventional public participation methods such as Open Space and World Café. The first major finding was that Transition Town Totnes (TTT) has become a significant organisation in the town, with a high level of popular support. It was also found that the obstacles to resilience and relocalisation lie not, as was hypothesised, in a lack of skills or an absence of community cohesion, but in issues of governance and the need for increased social entrepreneurship. It was found that what researchers call the ‘Value Action Gap’ (i.e. the gap between people’s declared sympathies and intentions and their actions) exists in Totnes as much as anywhere else, but that some of TTT’s projects, such as ‘Transition Together’, are working imaginatively to overcome this and to reduce emissions. From this evidence is it concluded that Transition’s approach towards relocalisation and reducing carbon emissions can be argued to be effective in, generating engagement and initiating new enterprises. Like other ‘green’ initiatives, it struggles to engage those from more disadvantaged backgrounds, but some of its initiatives are showing promise for overcoming this. Its primary contribution is in suggesting a redefining of resilience, not as a state of preparedness for disaster, but as a desired characteristic of a sustainable society. A more resilient community, it is argued, would be one more in control of its food and energy production, as well as being one that enables inward financial investment. It also argues that the government focus on ‘localism’, the devolving of political power to the local level, ought to be expanded to include ‘localisation’, the strengthening of local production to meet local needs, a shift which would financially benefit local communities. It argues that the key challenge for Transition initiatives such as TTT is going to be scaling up from being ‘niche’ organisations to become economically viable organisations with a broad appeal and engagement, and also articulates the need for ‘Resilience Indicators’ which would allow communities to measure the degree to which their levels of resilience are increasing.

This thesis employs a case study approach to investigate local implications of globally restricted mobility by examining Queenstown’s vulnerability to peak oil and climate change. Qualitative research methods are the principal means of inquiry. The research findings suggest that Queenstown is particularly vulnerable to peak oil and climate change at a broad scale because of its dependence on tourism and heavy reliance on air transport. However, Queenstown has fortuitously built up resilience to peak oil and climate change through tourism industry diversity, comparative advantage and an increasing proportion of short-haul visitors. A selection of key Queenstown tourism stakeholders interviewed as part of the research demonstrated some grasp of peak oil and climate change issues but lacked in-depth understanding. They generally considered the issues as being beyond their control although several suggested ways that Queenstown could strengthen resilience to peak oil and climate change. In terms of solutions, this research identifies three potential strategies. The first involves investing in a low carbon local transport system to increase destination level resilience to peak oil and climate change and enhance the uniqueness of the Queenstown brand. The second involves Queenstown promoters targeting the high-end niche tourism market in order to create a more resilient visitor profile. And the third involves the creation of new and expansion of existing industries not tied to tourism – preferably industries that are not excessively oil dependent and carbon intensive. But in order to successfully tackle the problem, it is imperative to first raise awareness. The research recommends implementing a framework that ensures an inclusive community-wide open dialogue process as the most effective way to achieve this.

Resilience has become a prominent concept to understand system vulnerabilities flexible ways of adapting to crises. Recently, it gained importance in discussions a the possible peak in oil production (peak oil) and its consequences, which might a economic performance, social well-being and political stability, and thus also the e transition to a low-carbon economy. The paper presents a new way of measuring resilience as absolute resilience related to a best practice-model of a resilient socie The resilience model is grounded in explicit theoretical assumptions. All indicators justified by theoretical and empirical arguments. We present a case study of Austr municipalities and broader-scale spatial types, which were defined according to th degree of urbanization. The mean resilience of Austrian municipalities is moderate difference between resilience values of municipalities is small. Significant different between spatial types exist. Higher resilience is displayed by less urbanized types due to a higher share of agricultural activities and a more favorable level of GDP per capita. Austria has considerable latitude to improve resilience. Corresponding policies should target resilience components with the lowest values first. A sole focus on regionalization is not recommended. These conclusions are applicable to OECD countries in general. (authors' abstract)

The diploma thesis focuses on world oil supply and aims to distinguish symptoms undoubtedly pointing to a possibly upcoming era of altered consumption and extraction patterns of oil products, which will be launched by "peak oil" -- a point when oil production reaches its maximum continues to decline. The thesis' objective is to analyse the probability of peak oil occurring and possible implications for world economy and selected countries. If proven true, it provides a an answer to the question whether the world economy can survive peaking without repercussions or whether it will shrink and decline into crisis. The first part defines the supply of oil and -- it's an overview of conventional and unconventional types of oil, petroleum products, oil fields, extraction techniques, energy effectiveness and substitutes. Furthermore, it defines "peak oil", it clarifies its history, strives to determine its possible date and compares it with the current oil situation. The second part surveys general implications of peak oil for world economics and politics -- it observes an unsatisfied oil demand, impact on the outputs of economies and the role of oil in economic crises. The political part follows with possible changes in the field of international politics. Lastly it tries to determine the effect on American suburbia. The third and final part is dedicated to selected countries, which are either important exporters or importers.

This study examines the relationship between oil supply and water security in the Middle East and North Africa. The aim is to see if countries without oil have a harder time mitigating water scarcity, as well as if countries with oil can be expected to become more vulnerable when oil becomes scarcer. This is important considering water security has impacts on many issues, such as political stability and food security. The study looks at panel data for 4 years between 1997- 2012 in a regression with Year Fixed Effects and finds that there is a positive correlation between oil supply and water supply. The study then uses this result to look qualitatively at three countries (Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia) that are diverse with respect to oil supply, and the results show that oil mainly impacts water security through desalination capabilities, due to oil fueling these facilities. The results also show that desalination may have led to excessive use in some countries, and that oil has allowed a higher consumption of water than is sustainable in the long run. This is significant because it has implications on future water security in the region, and therefore possibly on issues such as political stability.