Thesis advisor: Robert Murphy / The following three essays address two issues that have gained much recent attention among macroeconomists. The first essay - "International Policy Coordination: Policy Analysis in a Staggered Wage-setting Model" - deals with the incentives for countries to coordinate monetary and fiscal policies in an environment where the countries differ only in the length of the labor contracts which typify their respective economies. The second essay - "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critique" and the third essay - "Liquidity Constraint Volatility: Evidence from Post-war Aggregate Time-series Data" - are tests of the importance and persistence of liquidity constraints in determining consumption behavior in the United States using micro-based data and aggregate timeseries data, respectively. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 1988. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This thesis focuses on a particular aspect of the international role of the European Union (EU), examining the evolution of EU conflict prevention policy in the post- Cold War period. In recent years the EU has extended its range of external relations policies, and conflict prevention has emerged as a prominent objective on the agenda, particularly as the Union faced political and economic instability on its borders. After introducing conflict prevention and analysing the EU's external relations and the post- Cold War security context, the thesis examines the EU's institutional set-up for conflict prevention. The incremental development and institutional structure of the EU renders the formulation and implementation of conflict prevention by the EU a particular challenge. The thesis then proceeds to an investigation of EU cooperation and conflict prevention policy coordination with the security organisations identified as the EU's key partners: the United Nations (UN), the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). While post-Cold War conflict prevention requires a multilateral approach, the proliferation of European security organisations and the increasing overlap in their objectives makes policy coordination between the EU and other organisations particularly important. It is concluded that the EU faces fundamental internal coordination problems and institutional divisions in its elaboration of conflict prevention policy. Conflict prevention is underdeveloped by the EU and is in danger of being marginalised in favour of shorter-term crisis management. Furthermore, internal coordination problems have a detrimental impact on the organisation's ability to cooperate externally with other security organisations. EU external priorities in conflict prevention focus on cooperation in crisis management with the UN and NATO, and fail to capitalise on the advantages of cooperation with the OSCE. The failure of the EU to fully adopt conflict prevention as an external relations priority and to coordinate its activities with other organisations could have implications for future stability in, and on the borders of, the EU.

This thesis discusses the governmental institutional dynamics that structure the formulation and coordination of spatial policy within the federal Canadian intergovernmental system and presents methods to improve it. The research utilises the three traditions of new institutionalism - historical, rational choice and sociological - to develop a crosscutting assessment of intergovernmental spatial policy coordination. An embedded case study approach is then used to discuss intergovernmental spatial policy coordination between the governments of Canada, British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Research findings highlight the uniqueness of the institutional environments that exist within each government, and to a lesser extent each department, which structure policymakers’ understandings of intergovernmental spatial policy coordination. Policymakers demonstrate a distinct awareness of spatial issues, but they are often constrained in their ability formally to articulate this in the development of public policy, particularly in relation to intergovernmental interactions. The decentralised federal nature of Canada is shown to be a highly influential reason for this, with issues of history, equity, politics and strong regional government cultures playing important roles in impeding intergovernmental spatial policy coordination. The thesis explores these constraints, discussing how both formal and informal institutional structures interact to discourage the use of spatial policy, and discusses the ways in which intergovernmental spatial policy coordination could be enhanced in the specific context of Canada. The institutional framework developed in this research is shown to be a useful method for conceptualising the competing federal principles of unity and diversity in the study of intergovernmental spatial policy coordination. Ultimately this thesis argues that while intergovernmental spatial policy coordination is poorly developed in Canada, policymaker awareness of spatial issues influences the decision-making processes employed to develop and coordinate public policy.

The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the readiness of SADC economies to complete the process of monetary integration in the region and to form a monetary union and adopt a common currency. This is done against the backdrop of optimal currency area (OCA) theory. Given this objective, the study hypothesizes that the majority of SADC economies in the region are potential candidates to bring the proposed monetary union into existence sometime in the future, if not in 2018 as proposed by SADC secretariat. The study uses a mix of different methodologies ranging from developing a conceptual framework to empirical investigation in order to answer the research questions and to test the hypotheses. In addition to theoretical reviews and discussions, four findings emerge as fundamental from the four essays. First, from the Triples test the study has not found significant evidence to reject the null hypothesis of „structural symmetry‟ among ten SADC member countries. 10 out of 15 members (i.e.66.67 percent) have exhibited structural symmetry in their real business cycles over the study period. However, close to 50 percent of the member states have weak cyclical co-movements with a low relative intensity. Taking the experience of the EMU where just five countries are able to create havoc in the entire union, we can safely say that the findings from the combined three tests from the first essay confirm that there is still work that needs to be done to coordinate economic policies in the region to improve real economic integration before entry into the proposed monetary union in 2018. In Essay 2, the study finds that the generalised purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis holds for SADC economies given the stationary panel of RER series with one cointegrating relationship as exhibited by trace statistics and the existence of a long run co-integrating relationship amongst the system of real exchange rates. This implies that there is potential for relative prices to converge in the region in the long run, hence SADC is a potential OCA, based on the criteria of price convergence. However, the slow speed of adjustment towards GPPP long run equilibrium should be a warning for the possible ineffectiveness of policy to defend these countries against external shocks. In Essay 3, the Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) test and Fourier approximation confirm the non linear nature of real exchange series in SADC economies. This finding further supports an OCA in the region comprising those countries included in the study. The findings in this essay further strengthen the findings from the previous two essays that claim that member states could constitute a monetary union in the region at some future date. Lastly, the fourth essay, using a long run dynamic panel model finds that there are common policy variables determining the real exchange rate (RER)/ the real effective exchange rate (REER) series of SADC economies. The RER/REER equilibrium analysis reveals that SADC economies are characterised by persistent misalignment. This calls for further policy coordination and policy harmonisation in the region. By considering findings from all the four essays the study finds that nine SADC countries can potentially constitute SADC-OCA namely; Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania and Zambia. Angola and Mauritius disqualified from a SADC-OCA at least for the sample period considered in this study. Lesotho, DRC, and Zimbabwe are not included due to data limitations, otherwise Lesotho could join the qualifying group of countries given long experience with the Common Monetary Area (CMA). To reap benefits SADC economic integration initiatives, it requires realistic time span, political will, common understandings and awareness, commitment and self-disciplined policy actions from member states and their fellow citizens. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / tm2015 / Economics / PhD / Unrestricted

雖然傳統的國貿理論認為，自由貿易乃至於關稅減讓必對貿易的雙方均有利，但若引入公共選擇學派的概念，結論或許便不大一樣了。因此本文的目的在於引入利益團體競租行為的概念，且摒除政府只以人民福祉為考量之傳統想法，來研究在何種條件下，參加關稅減讓談判對雙方政府均有利，且加以闡述此條件。最後再試圖以此模型對中美農業談判，提出一些解釋。 本模型採用兩層次賽局(即第一層為兩國政府之間的賽局 ,第二層為各國內利益團體之間的賽局)的架構來分析國際經貿談判，可得下列結論： 一、影響政治獻金的因素： 1、生產者團體的政治獻金較消費者團體的政治獻金為多，且兩者呈正向的關係 這可能是由於生產者團體所得到的利潤較消費者團體所得到的消費者剩餘來得大，所以其願意付出亦較多；而當消費者團體的政治獻金增加，造成關稅可能下降時，生產者團體為避免關稅下降致使利潤減少，於是更提高政治獻金。 2、當消費chip的邊際效用(MU=m-bz)增加時，兩利益團體均會增加政治獻金。 由於消費chip的效用增加，人們便會將其所得多花一點在chip上，對apple的消費減少；對兩利益團體而言，因邊際成本不變，而邊際收益增加 (即chip消費的增加，會使利潤、消費者剩餘增加)，因此兩者均會增加政治獻金，使邊際利潤增加。 3、即生產邊際成本降低時，兩利益團體均會增加政治獻金。 由於生產邊際成本減少，邊際收益不變下，邊際利潤便會增加，因此會增加產量，而在其它條件不變下，產量的增加更使利潤、消費者剩餘增加，對兩利益團體而言，等同於是邊際成本不變，而邊際收益增加，會使兩者增加政治獻金，使邊際利潤增加。 二、政府在決定合作或不合作時，所考量的因素： 對於各國而言，若存在一有公信力之世界性的經貿組織，能夠防止雙方背信且可公平分配總利益，由圖可知，合作策略下之政府支持均比不合作策略下之大。由此可知，此一世界性的經貿組織，如WTO之重要性。 三、中美農業談判 若以此模型對中美農業談判提出一些解釋，可得下列結論： 在不合作下，由於我國農業的生產邊際成本可被視為大於美國農業的生產邊際成本，因此我國的關稅會較高。而合作後，我國的關稅會降低。

This paper tests for the Euro zone the hypothesis put forward by Sapir and Sekkat (1999) that synchronizing elections might improve welfare. After identifying a political budget cycle in the Euro zone we build a politico-macroeconomic model and simulate the effects of adopting a common election day in the 12 Euro zone member states. The results support most of the theoretical predictions by Sapir-Sekkat: (i) Synchronizing the elections could enhance GDP growth, reduce unemployment, but leads to increased inflation and in some countries to a deterioration of the budget; higher inflation forces ECB to monetary restrictions. (ii) If the synchronization happens asymmetrically - either only in the large or only in the small Euro zone countries - the result depends on the size of the spillovers. (iii) As anticipated in Sapir -Sekkat a common election day is a further step towards the desired "European business cycle", however, at the cost of increasing its amplitude. Harmonizing elections is another method of policy coordination. Whether this leads to higher welfare is a matter of weighting the different macroeconomic outcomes and it also depends on the model applied. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

The policy area of freedom, security and justice represents one in which the European member states have been keen on remaining sovereign. In dealing with large inflows of asylum seekers, EASO was set up as an agency. The aim of this study was to assess what this new agency was an expression of, in terms of its role in relation to the member states. By applying the theory liberal intergovernmentalism, this created a useful tool for a comprehensive understanding of why states choose to cooperate within a more institutionalized form.       Methodologically, this study has looked closer at the founding documents of EASO, TFEU, the Lisbon treaty as well as literature on the theoretical framework. This paper has a descriptive ambition, in its aim to explain member states’ behaviour using an established theory.          This paper concludes that the theory contributes to an understanding of why EASO was created, having looked at national preferences, interstate bargaining and institutional choice. It is process in which national preferences are formulated, leading to relative bargaining positions and finally results in an institutional form that takes into account the self-rule of member states, while at the same time comprises a necessary operational mandate for EASO.

O ano de 2011 marcou o aniversário de vinte anos da criação do Mercosul. Apesar dos avanços vistos no início do período, marcados pela forte dinâmica comercial intrarregional e pelo estabelecimento da união aduaneira, o otimismo em relação ao bloco regional mostrou uma trajetória descendente ao longo dos anos. O ambiente de interdependência econômica proporcionado pela liberalização comercial passou a gerar efeitos não desejados e a demandar impulsos pró-integracionistas cada vez maiores para o cumprimento dos principais objetivos do Tratado de Assunção, o que, no mais das vezes, não ultrapassou o plano da retórica. Entre essas metas pouco desenvolvidas se encontrava a coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas, necessária ao aprofundamento comercial do bloco e capaz de prevenir os surtos protecionistas tão comuns entre os participantes, principalmente entre Argentina e Brasil, países-chave para o fortalecimento do Mercosul por seu peso econômico e político em relação aos dois vizinhos menores. Essa falta de coordenação macroeconômica, contudo, foi caracterizada por períodos de maior ou menor convergência entre as políticas econômicas dos dois países, o que teve consequências, respectivamente, mais ou menos benéficas ao processo de integração regional. Dentro dessa perspectiva, o objetivo geral do trabalho é definir de que forma as políticas macroeconômicas de Argentina e Brasil, ao longo do recorte de cunho político que põe de um lado o período neoliberal (1991-2002) e de outro o período com maior ativismo estatal (2003-2011), afetaram o processo de integração regional, medido pela evolução de seu comércio bilateral de mercadorias. Logo, surgem as seguintes perguntas: (i) houve similaridade nos desenhos macroeconômicos adotados por Argentina e Brasil ao longo dos vinte anos de existência do Mercosul? (ii) de que modo as crises cambiais vividas pelos dois países e as consequentes mudanças políticas ocorridas no interior de cada um alteraram seus modelos macroeconômicos? (iii) como, na ausência de um arcabouço cooperativo mais rígido, suas políticas macroeconômicas afetaram a evolução de seu comércio bilateral de mercadorias tomado, aqui, como Proxy para a integração regional? (iv) pode-se traçar uma relação positiva entre os principais planos econômicos adotados e as políticas comerciais mais ou menos protecionistas em relação ao vizinho? (v) quais são as formas mais plausíveis de coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas a serem adotadas por Argentina e Brasil? As respostas para essas perguntas são os principais objetivos específicos desse trabalho. / Mercosur has completed 20 years in 2011. Despite the advances seen at the beginning of the process, qualified by the strong intra-regional trade dynamic and by the custom union’s establishment, the optimism regarding to the regional bloc showed a downward trend over the years. The economic interdependent environment provided by the trade liberalization started to create unwanted effects and to demand increasing pro-integration impulses in order to accomplish the main objectives of Asuncion Treaty, which, in most cases, have not exceeded the rhetoric level. Among these undeveloped goals was the macroeconomic policy coordination, widely necessary to deepen the bloc’s trade and capable of preventing protectionists outbreaks so common among the participants, mainly between Argentina and Brazil, key-countries to the strengthening of Mercosur because of their political and economic influence. This lack of macroeconomic coordination, however, was characterized by phases of greater and lesser convergence between the two countries’ economic policies, which had results, respectively, more and less beneficial to the regional integration process. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define how the macroeconomic policies of Argentina and Brazil, along the outline that puts on one hand the neoliberal period (1991-2002) and on another a period when the state will play a bigger role (2003-2011), affected the regional integration, measured by their merchandise bilateral trade evolution. Therefore, the following questions arise: (i) was there any similarity in macroeconomic policies adopted by Argentina and Brazil during the twenty years of Mercosur? (ii) how do the exchange crises experienced by both countries and the consequent political changes occurred within each one altered their macroeconomic models? (iii) having in mind the absence of a more rigid cooperative framework, which ways their macroeconomic policies affect the evolution of their merchandise bilateral trade in? (iv) can we draw a positive relationship between the main economic plans of Argentina and Brazil and their more protectionist commercial policies regarding to their Mercour’s main neighbor? (v) what are the plausible macroeconomic policy coordination forms to be adopted by Argentina and Brazil? The answers to these questions are the main specific objectives of this paper.

O ano de 2011 marcou o aniversário de vinte anos da criação do Mercosul. Apesar dos avanços vistos no início do período, marcados pela forte dinâmica comercial intrarregional e pelo estabelecimento da união aduaneira, o otimismo em relação ao bloco regional mostrou uma trajetória descendente ao longo dos anos. O ambiente de interdependência econômica proporcionado pela liberalização comercial passou a gerar efeitos não desejados e a demandar impulsos pró-integracionistas cada vez maiores para o cumprimento dos principais objetivos do Tratado de Assunção, o que, no mais das vezes, não ultrapassou o plano da retórica. Entre essas metas pouco desenvolvidas se encontrava a coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas, necessária ao aprofundamento comercial do bloco e capaz de prevenir os surtos protecionistas tão comuns entre os participantes, principalmente entre Argentina e Brasil, países-chave para o fortalecimento do Mercosul por seu peso econômico e político em relação aos dois vizinhos menores. Essa falta de coordenação macroeconômica, contudo, foi caracterizada por períodos de maior ou menor convergência entre as políticas econômicas dos dois países, o que teve consequências, respectivamente, mais ou menos benéficas ao processo de integração regional. Dentro dessa perspectiva, o objetivo geral do trabalho é definir de que forma as políticas macroeconômicas de Argentina e Brasil, ao longo do recorte de cunho político que põe de um lado o período neoliberal (1991-2002) e de outro o período com maior ativismo estatal (2003-2011), afetaram o processo de integração regional, medido pela evolução de seu comércio bilateral de mercadorias. Logo, surgem as seguintes perguntas: (i) houve similaridade nos desenhos macroeconômicos adotados por Argentina e Brasil ao longo dos vinte anos de existência do Mercosul? (ii) de que modo as crises cambiais vividas pelos dois países e as consequentes mudanças políticas ocorridas no interior de cada um alteraram seus modelos macroeconômicos? (iii) como, na ausência de um arcabouço cooperativo mais rígido, suas políticas macroeconômicas afetaram a evolução de seu comércio bilateral de mercadorias tomado, aqui, como Proxy para a integração regional? (iv) pode-se traçar uma relação positiva entre os principais planos econômicos adotados e as políticas comerciais mais ou menos protecionistas em relação ao vizinho? (v) quais são as formas mais plausíveis de coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas a serem adotadas por Argentina e Brasil? As respostas para essas perguntas são os principais objetivos específicos desse trabalho. / Mercosur has completed 20 years in 2011. Despite the advances seen at the beginning of the process, qualified by the strong intra-regional trade dynamic and by the custom union’s establishment, the optimism regarding to the regional bloc showed a downward trend over the years. The economic interdependent environment provided by the trade liberalization started to create unwanted effects and to demand increasing pro-integration impulses in order to accomplish the main objectives of Asuncion Treaty, which, in most cases, have not exceeded the rhetoric level. Among these undeveloped goals was the macroeconomic policy coordination, widely necessary to deepen the bloc’s trade and capable of preventing protectionists outbreaks so common among the participants, mainly between Argentina and Brazil, key-countries to the strengthening of Mercosur because of their political and economic influence. This lack of macroeconomic coordination, however, was characterized by phases of greater and lesser convergence between the two countries’ economic policies, which had results, respectively, more and less beneficial to the regional integration process. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define how the macroeconomic policies of Argentina and Brazil, along the outline that puts on one hand the neoliberal period (1991-2002) and on another a period when the state will play a bigger role (2003-2011), affected the regional integration, measured by their merchandise bilateral trade evolution. Therefore, the following questions arise: (i) was there any similarity in macroeconomic policies adopted by Argentina and Brazil during the twenty years of Mercosur? (ii) how do the exchange crises experienced by both countries and the consequent political changes occurred within each one altered their macroeconomic models? (iii) having in mind the absence of a more rigid cooperative framework, which ways their macroeconomic policies affect the evolution of their merchandise bilateral trade in? (iv) can we draw a positive relationship between the main economic plans of Argentina and Brazil and their more protectionist commercial policies regarding to their Mercour’s main neighbor? (v) what are the plausible macroeconomic policy coordination forms to be adopted by Argentina and Brazil? The answers to these questions are the main specific objectives of this paper.

O ano de 2011 marcou o aniversário de vinte anos da criação do Mercosul. Apesar dos avanços vistos no início do período, marcados pela forte dinâmica comercial intrarregional e pelo estabelecimento da união aduaneira, o otimismo em relação ao bloco regional mostrou uma trajetória descendente ao longo dos anos. O ambiente de interdependência econômica proporcionado pela liberalização comercial passou a gerar efeitos não desejados e a demandar impulsos pró-integracionistas cada vez maiores para o cumprimento dos principais objetivos do Tratado de Assunção, o que, no mais das vezes, não ultrapassou o plano da retórica. Entre essas metas pouco desenvolvidas se encontrava a coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas, necessária ao aprofundamento comercial do bloco e capaz de prevenir os surtos protecionistas tão comuns entre os participantes, principalmente entre Argentina e Brasil, países-chave para o fortalecimento do Mercosul por seu peso econômico e político em relação aos dois vizinhos menores. Essa falta de coordenação macroeconômica, contudo, foi caracterizada por períodos de maior ou menor convergência entre as políticas econômicas dos dois países, o que teve consequências, respectivamente, mais ou menos benéficas ao processo de integração regional. Dentro dessa perspectiva, o objetivo geral do trabalho é definir de que forma as políticas macroeconômicas de Argentina e Brasil, ao longo do recorte de cunho político que põe de um lado o período neoliberal (1991-2002) e de outro o período com maior ativismo estatal (2003-2011), afetaram o processo de integração regional, medido pela evolução de seu comércio bilateral de mercadorias. Logo, surgem as seguintes perguntas: (i) houve similaridade nos desenhos macroeconômicos adotados por Argentina e Brasil ao longo dos vinte anos de existência do Mercosul? (ii) de que modo as crises cambiais vividas pelos dois países e as consequentes mudanças políticas ocorridas no interior de cada um alteraram seus modelos macroeconômicos? (iii) como, na ausência de um arcabouço cooperativo mais rígido, suas políticas macroeconômicas afetaram a evolução de seu comércio bilateral de mercadorias tomado, aqui, como Proxy para a integração regional? (iv) pode-se traçar uma relação positiva entre os principais planos econômicos adotados e as políticas comerciais mais ou menos protecionistas em relação ao vizinho? (v) quais são as formas mais plausíveis de coordenação de políticas macroeconômicas a serem adotadas por Argentina e Brasil? As respostas para essas perguntas são os principais objetivos específicos desse trabalho. / Mercosur has completed 20 years in 2011. Despite the advances seen at the beginning of the process, qualified by the strong intra-regional trade dynamic and by the custom union’s establishment, the optimism regarding to the regional bloc showed a downward trend over the years. The economic interdependent environment provided by the trade liberalization started to create unwanted effects and to demand increasing pro-integration impulses in order to accomplish the main objectives of Asuncion Treaty, which, in most cases, have not exceeded the rhetoric level. Among these undeveloped goals was the macroeconomic policy coordination, widely necessary to deepen the bloc’s trade and capable of preventing protectionists outbreaks so common among the participants, mainly between Argentina and Brazil, key-countries to the strengthening of Mercosur because of their political and economic influence. This lack of macroeconomic coordination, however, was characterized by phases of greater and lesser convergence between the two countries’ economic policies, which had results, respectively, more and less beneficial to the regional integration process. From this perspective, the aim of this paper is to define how the macroeconomic policies of Argentina and Brazil, along the outline that puts on one hand the neoliberal period (1991-2002) and on another a period when the state will play a bigger role (2003-2011), affected the regional integration, measured by their merchandise bilateral trade evolution. Therefore, the following questions arise: (i) was there any similarity in macroeconomic policies adopted by Argentina and Brazil during the twenty years of Mercosur? (ii) how do the exchange crises experienced by both countries and the consequent political changes occurred within each one altered their macroeconomic models? (iii) having in mind the absence of a more rigid cooperative framework, which ways their macroeconomic policies affect the evolution of their merchandise bilateral trade in? (iv) can we draw a positive relationship between the main economic plans of Argentina and Brazil and their more protectionist commercial policies regarding to their Mercour’s main neighbor? (v) what are the plausible macroeconomic policy coordination forms to be adopted by Argentina and Brazil? The answers to these questions are the main specific objectives of this paper.