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East Timor is a former colony of Portugal and one-time province of Indonesia. Portuguese colonization ended in 1975 amid brief civil warring between local political parties that had recently been established. This conflict was followed by an Indonesian military invasion, ushering in a period of domination that only ended in 1999 when the United Nations carried out a referendum by which to determine East Timor's future. But this occupation also ended with much violence, generating bitter sentiments between elites that has hampered democratisation even as independence has been won. One of the conclusions made in this study is that East Timor's transition to democracy fails to correlate fully with any of the modal processes outlined in the literature. Rather, in the case of East Timor, a number of pathways merge. In some ways, it begins with what Huntington conceptualized as bottom-up 'replacement', with local mass publics voting against their oppressors. But one of the factors that quickly distinguished this case is that the voting by which change was organized by an external force, the United Nations (UN), and targeted a foreign power, the Indonesian government. In this way, the processes of independence and democratisation were nearly coterminous. East Timor's progress was also complicated by Indonesia's responding to the referendum's outcome by instigating much violence through the militia groups that it controlled. This summoned yet another external actor, the Australian military. It also greatly extended the role of the UN, geared now to restarting the democratisation process by organising founding elections. But if East Timor's democratic transition is complex, an account of the precariousness of the democracy that has been brought about is straightforward. Put simply, given the weakness of institutions and civil society organization, this thesis restores attention to the autonomy and voluntarism possessed by national elites. The hypothesis guiding this thesis, then, is that elites are disunified, but have avoided any return to outright warring. Further, they are at most 'semi-loyal' in their attitudes toward democracy. Accordingly, democracy persists in East Timor, but is subject to many abuses. Thus, most of the research in this thesis seeks to explain elite-level attitudes and relations. In particular, it shows that cooperation between elites and shared commitments to democracy has been hampered by the diversity of their backgrounds. Some elites gained their standings and outlooks under Indonesian occupation. Others gained their statuses because of the guerrilla resistance they mounted against this occupation. The attitudes of other elites were deeply coloured by their experiences in a multitude of countries, including Indonesia, Portugal, Mozambique and Australia. This thesis then demonstrates that these diverse origins and standings have shaped elite attitudes and relations in ways that are unfavourable for political stability and democracy. Under Portuguese rule, three distinct elite groups emerged in East Timor: top government administrators, business elites and young professionals or intellectuals. In the last years of Portuguese domination, they formed some political parties, enabling them to emerge as political elites. Lacking what Higley et al. label structural integration and value consensus, these elites engaged in violent conflict that peaked in brief civil warring and triggered the Indonesian occupation. This elite-level disunity persisted during occupation, with elites continuing to use violence against each other. National elites were also diversified further, with the administrators and resistors joined by pro-Indonesian groups, the Catholic Church group, and nationalist intellectuals, hence extending the range of social origins and ideological outlooks. East Timor finally gained independence in 2002. However, this thesis shows that elite relations still lack integration and consensus. Their country's political frameworks were negotiated by officials from Portugal and Indonesia under the auspices of the UN. Moreover, even after the referendum sponsored by the UN was held, UN officials in New York overshadowed the preferences and decision making of national elites. This exclusion denied East Timorese elites the opportunity to learn and to habituate themselves in making political decisions based on peaceful dialogue and bargaining. Thus, while the use of overt violence diminished, elites continued to harbour deep suspicions, encouraging their use of manipulations, subterfuge, and violence by proxy in their dealings with one another. In consequence, tensions between elites in East Timor, while stopping short of outright warring, continue to simmer. It is thus uncertain whether, or for how long, these tensions might be contained by the formal institutions and procedures that have been put in place. Analysis is also clouded by the fact that in the wake of independence, still more kinds of elites have appeared on the scene. New fault lines thus stem from generational membership (older and younger), geographic location (diaspora and homegrown), and new kinds of organisational bases (political parties, state bureaucracy, security forces, business, the Catholic Church, and civil society). These elites have only begun to interact with another directly and regularly since East Timor's independence. They find that they possess different outlooks and levels of influence and power. Nonetheless, despite these inauspicious beginnings, it is important to underscore the fact that since independence, elites have refrained from the open warring that they once undertook. This thesis predicts that sustained elite skirmishing, but not open warring, and semi-democratic politics, rather than 'full' democracy or hard authoritarianism will persist. Much should be made clearer, though, by the ways in which the next parliamentary election, due in 2007, is conducted.

Intergroup bias is a phenomenon of favoring one’s own group and derogating other groups. This can be expressed through an individual’s positive evaluations of the ingroup and negative evaluations of outgroups. Research has found that feeling threatened plays a relevant role for the occurrence of bias, i.e., when under threat, people tend to express increased intergroup bias. Given numerous recent societal crises (e.g., COVID-19, war, inflation) this study investigated the relationship between various types of threats, political orientation, and political intergroup bias. The groups studied were the Swedish political left and right. Data was collected via an online survey (N = 149) in which participants initially rated threat perception, followed by evaluations of political left and right supporters. The participants’ in- and outgroups were defined through stating their political identification prior to the evaluations. Threat of the political situation in Sweden was shown to be the only threat to significantly correlate with political intergroup bias. Linear regression analysis showed that both Swedish political threat and political orientation were significant predictors of intergroup bias, although political orientation was a stronger predictor. In other words, the results provided insight into the relevance of contextual correspondence between the examined threat and groups. Methodological and theoretical limitations are discussed. Controlling for personality traits and degree of political identification is suggested for future research.

This thesis consists of four chapters on economic performance and social conflicts in Chinese history. The first chapter examines the impact of a major tax reform on protests in the eighteenth century in China. The de jure effect of this reform was to increase the tax burden on the gentry and decrease the tax burden on commoners, yet the de facto effect is under debate. I combine multiple databases into an annual panel dataset from 1700 to 1750 and use detailed information on protest to identify income shocks and tax incidence. The regression results after controlling for provincial fixed effects and national shocks show that the tax reform increased local protests by 0.3 incidents per year, which equals to half a standard deviation before the reform started. Further examination suggests that the de facto effects of the reform hurt commoners rather than the gentry. First, it increased protests by commoners but had no effects on protests by the gentry. Second, provinces with more gentry landlords also had larger increases in the frequency of protests. These results support that the gentry managed to pass the increased tax burdens on to the commoners. This analysis provides quantitative evidence that links social standing and tax burdens in pre-modern society. The second chapter studies the effect of income shocks on different types of conflicts. I consider two types of conflicts: protests, such as grain crises, that requested actions by the government, and revolutionary activities that aimed to overthrow the central government. From 1902 to 1911, China experienced both types of conflicts. I use a detailed record of local conflicts to identify the causes and leaders of each conflict. Combining this information with exogenous price shocks from the international agricultural market, I find that negative income shocks coming from drops in the export price of tea and the increases in the import price of cotton tended to increase the overall frequency of conflicts in general and protests that requested actions from the government. However, the same negative income shocks sometimes reduced revolutionary activities, which was probably caused by the shortage of resources in organizing these activities. These finding suggest an ``income effect'' on conflicts, probably due to the resources needed to organize the activities. The third chapter examines the impact of civil wars on the local economy using newly documented information about civil wars across regions in early-twentieth century China. During this period, China was de facto divided into several regions. Each region was controlled by different warlords or political groups. Warlords fought with each other for a larger territory. I first quantitatively document the scale, timing, and location of these civil wars. Around sixty violent civil wars took place from 1911 to 1934 and 25% of the Chinese counties in my sample were involved in at least one battle. I then examine the impact of civil wars on local economic activities. I find that civil wars overall caused a small negative impact on international trade flows and a 12.1% drop in rural land values. When the results are separated into wars by political groups, the wars involving weak political groups led to 1.7% to 3.8% drop in international trade flows, while the ones by strong political groups had small positive impact on trade flows. Similarly, wars conducted by the powerful incumbent had no negative impact on land values, while the ones between the KMT and the CCP led to a 30% drop in land values. Combined with narrative evidence, the results suggest that incumbent or political groups might have protect trade or reduced harm to the local economy if they relied on tariff or land taxes to finance themselves. The fourth chapter examines the impact of World War I on the Chinese economy. The war largely increased the freight rates in international trade and decreased China's imports of manufactured products from the European countries. I combine data from multiple sources to quantify the development of China's industrial sector and changes in agricultural input prices during and after the war. The firm-level information from the textile industries shows that the textile firms expanded during the war, and the trend continued even after. Using John Buck's survey on land values and labor wages across China, I find that the growing industrial sector also raised agricultural input prices by increasing demand for raw cotton and rural laborers. However, the benefits were small and the impact was clustered around the ports.

This thesis analyzes the cohesiveness, and voting likeliness of the political groups in the European Parliament on Turkey between 1980-1996. The thesis consists of two main parts: in the first part the structure, and historical evoluation of the European Parliament has been analyzed. In the second part, the changes in Turkish politics between 1980-96, and the cohesiveness, and voting alliances of the political groups have been analyzed by using roll call vote data.

Bibliography: pages 511-522. / To understand the intricacies of white rightwing politics in South Africa, an in-depth analysis of the roots, strength, policies and strategies of a very small but potentially potent sector of South Africa's diverse population is required. The aim of this dissertation is to provide an objective analysis of interlinking issues associated with the rightwing, the gathering and logical presentation of empirical data, the critical discussion of theories relating to ethnicity, and the provision of a framework in which to evaluate further developments in the sphere of rightwing politics. The thesis is concerned with an assessment of the white rightwing movement as a potentially disruptive element within the process of transformation to a democratic dispensation in South Africa. It argues that Afrikaner ethno-nationalism is the driving force of the rightwing, and discusses this phenomenon in the context of its historical roots, its class base, and its ethnic component. The thesis relies on the theoretical framework of Horowitz, which suggests that the rightwing should be analyzed in terms of a collective drive for power, which in turn could be used to confirm the social status of the Afrikaner ethnic group. It is argued that in the rightwing view, the best way to confirm Afrikaner social status and to protect the group from domination by other ethnic groups and races, is through self-determination. To achieve this goal, the rightwing has placed heavy emphasis on territorial aspects and has structured its territorial demands on the basis of achieving ethnic homogeneity in the Afrikaner 'fatherland'.

This study tested theoretical propositions concerning agenda-setting by minority political groups in the United States to see if they had the scope to be applicable to American Indian tribes or if there were alternative explanations for how this group places its agenda items on the formal agenda and resolves them. Indian tribes were chosen as the case study because they are of significantly different legal and political status than other minority groups upon which much of the previous research has been done. The study showed that many of the theoretical propositions regarding agenda-setting by minority groups were explanatory for agenda-setting by Indian tribes. The analyses seemed to demonstrate that Indian tribes use a closed policy subsystem to place tribal agenda items on the formal agenda. The analyses demonstrated that most tribal agenda items resolved by Congress involve no major policy changes but rather incremental changes in existing policies. The analyses also demonstrated that most federal court decisions involving Indian tribes have no broad impact or significance to all Indian tribes. The analyses showed that both Congress and the federal courts significantly influence the tribal agenda but the relationship between the courts and Congress in agenda-setting in this area of policy are unclear. Another finding of the study was that tribal leaders have no significant influence in setting the formal agendas of either Congress or the federal courts. However, they do have some success in the resolution of significant tribal agenda items as a result of their unique legal and political status. This study also contributed to the literature concerning agenda-setting by Indian tribes and tribal politics and study results have many practical implications for tribal leaders.

ABSTRACT UNEASY COEXISTENCE: &ldquo / ISLAMISM VS. REPUBLICANISM&rdquo / DEBATE IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN Arikan, Pinar M. Sc., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Meliha AltuniSik December 2006, 170 pages The objective of this thesis is to analyze the Islamist and republican features of the political regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It aims to identify the relationship between Islamism and republicanism in terms of institutional and practical means throughout the period since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. It seeks an answer to the question of how the Islamist and republican orientations that built up the political regime and the system of governance in the Islamic Republic of Iran have affected the domestic political and ideological developments. For this aim, firstly, the history of ulama-state relations as well as the history of constitutional tradition in Iran is discussed. Then, the impact of Islamism and republicanism in the process of establishment of the new regime in Iran is examined. Afterwards, the emergence of Islamism and republicanism as indigenous ideological currents and the political groups that appealed to these two orientations are analyzed with special emphasis to the role of Khomeini in this process. In the remaining part, the institutional and practical implications of the coexistence of Islamist and republican orientations are scrutinized during the presidencies of Rafsanjani and Khatami respectively. Finally, this thesis is concluded with an overall assessment of Islamism vs. republicanism debate with reference to the 2005 presidential elections.

Thesis title: Contemporary populism in Europe This thesis maps the development of populism across Europe and investigates its manifestations and core elements in its complexity, which is the groundwork for analysis of populist party, movement or individual. Populism is not considered solely as the relieving strategy meant to maximize the voter's votes by comprehensible, straightforward and hardly feasible promises. Without this attitude in mind, we would hardly be able to put some reason behind the populist boom, which we had chance to witness during the last decade. Therefore this thesis considers populism as the ideological construct, the way politicians present themselves, the rhetorics, the mastered political style or the structure, which provides the foundations of programme documents of political movements and parties. It would be a mistake to a priori consider it as some kind of purely negative phenomenon, but more of as the reflection of various and continuously changing demands of European electorates. Desperation, which mainstream parties evoke in their voters, is toxic and continues to spread across all society classes. This creates a space for various populists to dominate. Thus while tracking their activities, specific kind of critical thinking is necessary, because populists...

People in society with high levels of generalized social trust and political trust are more likely to engage in civic activism and participation. Therefore, people involved in social and political groups will likely have higher levels of generalized social and political trust than the general public. What lacks in this realm of scholarship is a solid comparison of trust among people involved in social and political groups. This case-study analysis of generalized social trust and political trust among social and political groups shows the trust that is not only generated within each group, but also which types of groups are more effective at developing citizens that participate in society. Using a researcher-designed survey instrument, two social groups and two political groups have been evaluated and compared to demonstrate members' propensity to trust others in society and those in political office at all levels of government. Sample size is 115 respondents. Among other demographic data analyzed and compared to a larger population data set in the World Values Survey, six hypotheses have been tested. Typical analysis shows demographic data or group membership as the independent variable with trust values acting as the dependent variable. Graphic and cross-tabular data show that social groups recorded higher levels of political trust than political groups. This is probably due to the ideological leanings of the political groups. Political groups showed higher levels of generalized social trust than social groups. Political group members probably feel that their actions are benefiting the greater good. Additionally, participation variables showed that not only are political group members more interested in politics than social group members, but they also have higher levels of registering to vote and to participate in the voting process. They are probably seeking to make significant change in the political system through their actions. The research conducted does not seek to provide a comprehensive analysis of trust among members of social and political groups. However, it is intended to promote the analysis of trust among people in society that have a predisposition to trust as they have shown through the act of participating in a social or political group. As foci for the development of trust, analysis of social and political groups provides a shortcut for scholars interested in the development and proliferation of trust in society. This research provides analysis of four case-study groups at one point in time. Further research using larger sample sizes and time-series analysis could advance trust analysis among social and political groups.