This thesis consists of four chapters on economic performance and social conflicts in Chinese history. The first chapter examines the impact of a major tax reform on protests in the eighteenth century in China. The de jure effect of this reform was to increase the tax burden on the gentry and decrease the tax burden on commoners, yet the de facto effect is under debate. I combine multiple databases into an annual panel dataset from 1700 to 1750 and use detailed information on protest to identify income shocks and tax incidence. The regression results after controlling for provincial fixed effects and national shocks show that the tax reform increased local protests by 0.3 incidents per year, which equals to half a standard deviation before the reform started. Further examination suggests that the de facto effects of the reform hurt commoners rather than the gentry. First, it increased protests by commoners but had no effects on protests by the gentry. Second, provinces with more gentry landlords also had larger increases in the frequency of protests. These results support that the gentry managed to pass the increased tax burdens on to the commoners. This analysis provides quantitative evidence that links social standing and tax burdens in pre-modern society. The second chapter studies the effect of income shocks on different types of conflicts. I consider two types of conflicts: protests, such as grain crises, that requested actions by the government, and revolutionary activities that aimed to overthrow the central government. From 1902 to 1911, China experienced both types of conflicts. I use a detailed record of local conflicts to identify the causes and leaders of each conflict. Combining this information with exogenous price shocks from the international agricultural market, I find that negative income shocks coming from drops in the export price of tea and the increases in the import price of cotton tended to increase the overall frequency of conflicts in general and protests that requested actions from the government. However, the same negative income shocks sometimes reduced revolutionary activities, which was probably caused by the shortage of resources in organizing these activities. These finding suggest an ``income effect'' on conflicts, probably due to the resources needed to organize the activities. The third chapter examines the impact of civil wars on the local economy using newly documented information about civil wars across regions in early-twentieth century China. During this period, China was de facto divided into several regions. Each region was controlled by different warlords or political groups. Warlords fought with each other for a larger territory. I first quantitatively document the scale, timing, and location of these civil wars. Around sixty violent civil wars took place from 1911 to 1934 and 25% of the Chinese counties in my sample were involved in at least one battle. I then examine the impact of civil wars on local economic activities. I find that civil wars overall caused a small negative impact on international trade flows and a 12.1% drop in rural land values. When the results are separated into wars by political groups, the wars involving weak political groups led to 1.7% to 3.8% drop in international trade flows, while the ones by strong political groups had small positive impact on trade flows. Similarly, wars conducted by the powerful incumbent had no negative impact on land values, while the ones between the KMT and the CCP led to a 30% drop in land values. Combined with narrative evidence, the results suggest that incumbent or political groups might have protect trade or reduced harm to the local economy if they relied on tariff or land taxes to finance themselves. The fourth chapter examines the impact of World War I on the Chinese economy. The war largely increased the freight rates in international trade and decreased China's imports of manufactured products from the European countries. I combine data from multiple sources to quantify the development of China's industrial sector and changes in agricultural input prices during and after the war. The firm-level information from the textile industries shows that the textile firms expanded during the war, and the trend continued even after. Using John Buck's survey on land values and labor wages across China, I find that the growing industrial sector also raised agricultural input prices by increasing demand for raw cotton and rural laborers. However, the benefits were small and the impact was clustered around the ports.

This thesis examines the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Pakistan by utilizing an open economy framework. There is a great need for research about the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies as the knowledge of the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policy could prove useful to policymakers and help them understand the macroeconomic adjustment processes of these policy measures.

The objective of this dissertation is to test empirically whether fiscal policy mimicking exists in developing countries and whether such mimicking leads to policy harmonization. This is done by studying the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Region and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The dissertation uses panel data and applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) and the generalized spatial two-stage least squares (GS2SLS) methodologies to a spatial setting to test for the spatial interactions. The study also tests for evidence of spatial interaction in the assessment of government efficiency by voters in neighboring countries, where efficiency is measured using the price/quantity ratio of public goods provision. We find evidence of fiscal policy copycat behavior in both the SSA and SADC regions and mimicking is also present in some tax revenues as well as in expenditure levels. This leads us to conclude that there is some form of fiscal harmonization taking place in these developing countries. We also find evidence of spatial interaction in the assessment of governments’ efficiency in the provision of public goods. Overall, we conclude that there is evidence of some fiscal mimicking behavior as a developing world phenomenon.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

Ces travaux essaient de répondre à la question de savoir quelles sont les meilleures politiques fiscales à adopter par le Liban, tant sur le plan interne qu'international, afin de générer des fonds pour le Trésor public qui permettent de subvenir aux besoins de reconstruction du pays, d'augmentation de sa croissance économique et d'amélioration du bien-être de ses citoyens. Toutefois, l'apport de ces travaux réside dans le défi qu'ils se fixent, celui de trouver des moyens de subvenir aux besoins énumérés ci-dessus et de rembourser la dette publique qui augmente exponentiellement, sans recourir à l'augmentation des impôts existants ou de la charge fiscale actuelle pesant sur les personnes physiques ou morales, ni recourir à l'emprunt ou à de nouvelles émissions de monnaies. Ils visent pour ce faire, à attirer le maximum d'investissements étrangers aussi bien directs qu'indirects vers le Liban. A cet effet, ils examinent dans une première partie l' attractivité de la fiscalité internationale libanaise tant au niveau du droit interne que conventionnel par rapport à celles des pays voisins concurrents du Liban en étudiant le droit fiscal des investissements en Syrie, Jordanie, Koweït, Egypte, Maroc et Tunisie. Ensuite, ils essaient dans la deuxième partie de trouver les mesures à adopter dans le cadre d'une stratégie globale de réforme de la fiscalité libanaise afin de la rendre la plus compétitive de la région du Moyen Orient et du Nord de l'Afrique sans se lancer dans une guerre pour le moins disant fiscal qui priverait le pays de la ressource vitale que constituent pour lui les impôts et sans compromettre son but de réalisation d'une croissance durable et équitable. / The thesis aims to find the best fiscal policies to be adopted in Lebanon, both on the national and the international levels, in order to generate enough funds for the Treasury to enable it to finance the reconstruction process in the country, increase its economic growth and improve the well-being of its citizens. However, the added value of the present thesis resides in the fact that it challenges itse1f to find the means that would allow the country to finance the needs mentioned above, without increasing the existing taxes, or the fiscal burden on the physical and legal persons and without going for borrowing or new money emissions. To do so, the thesis attempts to attract the maximum of foreign investments, whether direct or indirect ones, to Lebanon. Thus, it assesses in its first part the level of competitiveness and attractivity of the Lebanese fiscal system in comparison with the attractivity of the fiscal systems of Lebanon's neighbor competitors, by studying the fiscal treatment of the investments in Syria, Jordan, Kuwait, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Based on that, it tries in its second part to find the measures to be adopted in Lebanon, in the context of a global fiscal reform, in order to convert the Lebanese fiscal system into the most competitive and attractive one in the Middle East and North Africa region, without having to make compromises that would deprive Lebanon from the taxes that constitute one of its main sources of income and without having to make concessions that would alter the thesis's objective of generating an equitable and sustainable growth in Lebanon.

nÃo hà / O presente trabalho tem por objetivo examinar a proporcionalidade da execuÃÃo orÃamentÃria estadual em relaÃÃo à despesa corrente e ao investimento, sujeita à influÃncia do ciclo polÃtico eleitoral no perÃodo de 2001 a 2011. Para tanto, investigou-se a existÃncia do ciclo eleitoral nas variÃveis orÃamentÃrias, tais como: receita total; despesa corrente; e investimento, atravÃs de um modelo economÃtrico com dados montados em painel, adotando o mÃtodo de estimaÃÃo dos momentos generalizados. Os resultados mostraram presenÃa de ciclo polÃtico apenas nas variÃveis da despesa corrente e do investimento. / This study aims to examine the proportionality of the state budget execution with regard to current expenditure and investment subject to the influence of the electoral policy cycle from 2001 to 2011. Therefore, we investigated the existence of the electoral cycle in budget variables, such as total revenues, current expenditure and investment through an econometric model to data assembled panel adopting the estimation method of generalized moments. The results showed the presence of political cycle only in current expenditure variables and investment.

Cette étude examine les élaborations de politique fiscale en se concentrant sur un cas particulier: celui du Venezuela sur la période 2000-2010. La sélection de ce cas particulier permet d’intégrer deux aspects marquants, connus pour avoir des effets importants sur la performance rentière: un saisissant choc pétrolier de 2004 à 2008 et l’introduction d’un nouveau régime politique de type semi-autoritaire. Au cours de la première décennie du 21ème siècle, le régime politique du Venezuela a substantiellement été transformé. Les modes de gouvernance du pays et précisément ceux du secteur pétrolier ont connu une profonde mutation. L’institution fiscale du Venezuela changea considérablement dans les années 2000 avec une nouvelle conception du management des ressources politiques. Le paradigme ‘semer le pétrole’ fut remplacé par un modèle de distribution directe et centralisé des rentes pétrolières. Grâce à un gouvernement récemment élu et l’adoption d’une nouvelle constitution en 1999, une série de changements substantiels débuta, amorçant de véritables métamorphoses institutionnelles et de nouvelles dynamiques au sein des sphères politiques, économiques et sociales. Plusieurs réformes légales ont été progressivement introduites pour modifier les normes du système de Management des Finances Publiques (PFM) ainsi que les normes budgétaires, générant ainsi de nouvelles dynamiques dans l’aménagement des dépenses publiques, dans les modèles d’allocation de rente, et dans l’ensemble de la gestion des ressources. Ces mesures créant de nouvelles élaborations fiscales, et plus important encore, une nouvelle architecture de finances publiques. / This study examines fiscal policy designs by focusing on one particular case: Venezuela during the period 2000-2010. The selection of this particular case of study allows to integrate two prominent aspects known to have important effects on rentier performance: a striking oil boom from 2004-2008 and the introduction of a new political regime. During the first decade of the 21st century, the political regime of Venezuela was substantially transformed modifying the overarching governance modes of the country and more specifically, those of the oil sector, the most important sector of the country’s economy. The fiscal institution of Venezuela considerably changed in the 2000s with a new conception over the management of oil rents. The ‘sowing the oil’ paradigm was displaced by a model of direct distribution of oil rents through a centralized spending system. With a newly elected government and the enactment of a new Constitution in 1999, a series of substantial changes were begun, introducing institutional makeovers and new dynamics across political, economic and social spheres. These multiple institutional rearrangements drew a dividing line from previous time periods, progressively developing a discernible preference for centralizing policy-making decisions, circumventing institutional structures and restructuring policy arrangements to make them compatible with the newly established governance modes. In this sense, the assessment of Public Financial Management (PFM) system adjustments in the light of controlling expanding resource rents can potentially contribute to the study of fiscal implementation distortions in naturally endowed economies in particular.

Il cambiamento climatico e la pressione antropica sulle risorse idriche rendono le politiche di gestione dell’acqua primordiali nell'agenda dei policy makers. Nel mio lavoro, inizialmente, presento una rassegna della letteratura in materia di modelli di Equilibro Generale Calcolabile (CGE) che incorporano l’acqua. In tale ambito, propongo la seguente classificazione: (i) la concorrenza tra i settori per l’uso di acqua; (ii) le politiche di prezzo e delle tariffe sull’acqua, (iii) l'acqua e le questioni commerciali, (iv) i modelli CGE ed altri modelli. In secondo luogo, analizzo gli effetti della siccità per l'economia del Kenya attraverso un modello CGE statico, calibrato sulla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale (SAM) del Kenya (2003). Il Kenya è stato scelto perché Paese particolarmente esposto a ricorrenti siccità (ad esempio negli anni 1994, 1998-2000, 2001 e 2003) che hanno duramente colpito le popolazioni più vulnerabili del paese, cioè quelle concentrate nelle zone aride e semiaride (ASAL). Inoltre, propongo l'introduzione di schemi di tassazione, al fine di produrre un extra-reddito che possa essere reinvestito per aumentare l'efficienza del settore idrico in Kenya o per trasferimenti alle famiglie rurali più povere. Infine, riproduco l'attuazione del progetto “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP) di FAO e Banca Mondiale. I risultati mostrano che, in primo luogo, gli effetti di una riduzione della dotazione di acqua sono più robusti di quelli derivanti da un aumento della dotazione d'acqua. In secondo luogo, la simulazione di uno scenario di siccità - in cui non solo la dotazione di acqua, ma anche la disponibilità di terra e la produttività di attività selezionate sono ridotti - fornisce un quadro più coerente dei risultati. In terzo luogo, tassare “raw water” (il fattore di acqua) può influenzare negativamente i redditi degli abitanti delle zone rurali. Infine, Il ALRMP ha un impatto positivo sulla riduzione degli effetti negativi della siccità sulle ASAL in Kenya. / Climate change and human pressure on water resources make water management policies primordial in the agenda of policy makers. I first propose a literature review of the works on Water Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models suggesting the following classification: (i) competition between sectors; (ii) water pricing policies and tariffs; (iii) water and trade issues; (iv) CGE and other models. Secondly, the effects of droughts on the Kenyan economy are studied by means of a static CGE model, calibrated on the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya. As a water scarce Sub-Saharan country, Kenya is among those countries considered particularly exposed to drought problems. This has been witnessed in recent years by several recurring droughts (1994, 1998-2000, 2001, and 2003) which have harshly hit the most vulnerable part of the country, namely the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (ASAL). Besides, I propose the introduction of several taxation schemes in order to produce an extra revenue to be either reinvested in increasing the efficiency of the water sector in Kenya, or redistributed to the poorest rural households. Finally we simulate the implementation of the UN-FAO and World Bank “Arid Land and Resource Management Project” (ALRMP). The results show that, firstly, the effects of reducing water endowment are stronger than when increasing water endowment. Secondly, simulating a drought scenario – where not just water endowment but also availability of land and the productivity of selected activities are reduced - gives a more coherent picture of the outcomes. Thirdly, taxing raw water (the water factor) may negatively affect rural dwellers as they are owners of water resources. Finally, I found that the ALRMP has a positive impact on mitigating the negative effects of droughts in Kenyan ASAL.

This thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases. We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization of output and inflation. A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy. A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce determinacy.

Cette thèse de doctorat étudie, dans un cadre théorique, l’incidence des politiques fiscales environnementales au regard de l’hétérogénéité des travailleurs. Elle analyse la construction de politiques fiscales en fonction de trois objectifs : réduire les émissions de pollution, améliorer l’efficacité, et réduire les inégalités. Cette thèse est constituée d’une introduction et de trois chapitres (articles académiques) qui chacun décline cette question sous différents aspects. Le premier chapitre s’intéresse aux choix éducatifs et analyse l’impact des taxes environnementales sur l’efficacité et l’équité au travers ces choix d’éducation. Le second chapitre se concentre sur l’impact des taxes environnementales dans un contexte d’imperfection du marché du travail (chômage involontaire frictionnel). Le troisième chapitre est consacré aux disparités régionales en matière de salaire, d’emploi et de préférence pour les biens polluants. / This Ph.D. dissertation studies the incidence of environmental taxation between heterogeneous workers. In a theoretical framework, it analyses the design of environmental fiscal policy in regards with three competing goals : reducing emissions, improving economic efficiency, and limiting economic inequality. It consists of an introduction and three chapters (essays), each of them focusing on a different aspect of the problem. The first chapter uses a model with endogenous education and looks at how environmental taxation can affect efficiency and equity through its effects on educational choices. The second chapter focuses on the impact of green taxes on inequalities and unemployment using a search-friction model. The third one deals with regional disparities in regards with unemployment, wages and preferences.