Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies / Jeffrey J. Pickering / As the Internet is progressively integrated into industrial and defense-related networks around the globe, it is becoming increasingly important to understand how state and sub-state groups can use Internet vulnerabilities as a conduit of attack. The current social science literature on cyber threats is largely dominated by descriptive, U.S.-centric research. While this scholarship is important, the findings are not generalizable and fail to address the global aspects of network vulnerabilities. As a result, this dissertation employs a unique dataset of cyber threats from around the world, spanning from 1990 to 2011. This dataset allows for three diverse empirical studies to be conducted. The first study investigates the political, social, and economic characteristics that increase the likelihood of a state being targeted for cyber threats. The results show that different state characteristics are likely to influence the forms of digital attack targeting. For example, states that experience increases in GDP per capita and military size are more likely to be targeted for cyber attacks. Inversely, states that experience increases in GDP per capita and those that are more democratic are less likely to be targeted for cyber terrorism. The second study investigates the role that international rivalries play in cyber threat targeting. The results suggest that states in rivalries may have more reason to strengthen their digital security, and rival actors may be cautious about employing serious, threatening forms of cyber activity against foes because of concerns about escalation. The final study, based upon the crisis bargaining theory, seeks to determine if cyber threat targeting decreases private information asymmetry and therefore decreases conflict participation. Empirical results show that the loss of digital information via cyber means may thus illicit a low intensity threat or militarized action by a target state, but it also simultaneously increases the likelihood that a bargain may be researched, preventing full scale war by reducing the amount of private information held between parties.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Geography / Lisa Harrington / In the United States, rationales for corn ethanol policies have included national energy security, air pollution abatement, clean technology development, and climate change mitigation. The ostensible benefits of corn ethanol have been used to justify the transfer of federal funds toward corn and ethanol production subsidies, consumption mandates, and import restrictions, plus substantial research and development efforts. Public and private sector funding has also focused on efforts to commercially develop biofuels from advanced technology using cellulosic biomass. Despite decades of public and commercial interest, cellulosic ethanol has failed to commercialize, corn ethanol remains heavily dependent on subsidies, and each of the alleged benefits of ethanol has been hotly disputed. This research examines the links between interest groups and rationales for biofuel policies. Drawing from Foucauldian discourse analysis, the research identifies key discourses supporting and opposed to biofuel development, and their relation to broader issues in environmental and energy politics. This approach involved a detailed review of newspaper archives, policy documents, Congressional bills, committee hearings and debates, governmental and non-governmental reports, and scientific research findings. It reveals how a powerful coalition of agricultural interests succeeded in harnessing biofuel discourses to popular public and political environmental and energy concerns. The primary discourses identified were Environmental Bureaucracy, Free Markets, Ecological Modernization, and Limits. A common element in the first three of these was Techno-Optimism. A Limits discourse opposed ethanol expansion, primarily based on a narrative of competition for agricultural land, and stood apart from other discourses in its mistrust of science and technology to resolve environmental problems. The research concludes that Foucauldian discourse analysis provides a useful tool for examining key shifts in policy debates, for clarifying the relationship between scientific knowledge and discursive power, for understanding divisions within environmental discourse, and for revealing the importance of scale in environmental public policy process.

Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies Program / Jeffrey Pickering / Ideas about why US foreign policy actors have turned ever more frequently to private military contractors (PMCs) and private security contractors (PSCs) over the past decade and a half abound. Descriptive accounts of the rise of these corporations have become something of a cottage industry over the past decade or so. The various ideas advanced have yet to be placed under rigorous empirical scrutiny, however. This dissertation builds from the existing descriptive literature to advance a new theoretical framework to explain the rise of private contractors. It analyzes this framework as well as alternative ideas using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, marking the first time this important subject has been systematically examined with both social science methods.

Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies / Dale R. Herspring / Since the late 1970s Saudi Arabia has experienced transnational terrorism in sporadic waves whose character has evolved over time. While most of the literature on these waves of terrorism focuses on religious extremism this dissertation argues that terrorism in Saudi Arabia, although framed in religious terms, is not the result of religious factors alone, but more importantly a function of external variables. Taking the role of religious extremism into consideration, this dissertation underlines the importance of external factors on the mobilization of transnational terrorist groups throughout the Islamic world and particularly in Saudi Arabia. It argues that religious extremist terrorism cannot be examined in isolation from the context of the developments that ignite it and revolutionize its doctrine. This dissertation examines three key regional political developments – the Iranian revolution, the 1990 Gulf war, and the 2003 Iraq war – together with terrorist violence in their aftermath to show how the significant political events transformed extremist worldviews from passive to violent to organized terrorism. Though the character of these three political events and the terrorist acts that they unleashed differ widely in context, scope, and character, there are common threads among all three that illuminate how different dynamics contribute to the evolution of transnational terrorist mobilization. The dissertation identifies how the development of a politico-religious ideology, shaped and revolutionized by the presence of political crises, became a driving force behind much of the terrorism following these major political events. By exploring the interplay of popular perceptions, political entrepreneurs, and state responses, this dissertation seeks to better understand the complex dynamics involved in the evolution of transnational terrorism in Saudi Arabia.

Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies / David Graff / How does the social network structure of China’s Central Committee influence the direction and timing of intra-Party events, domestic policies, and foreign policies? How do changes in network structures explain specific patterns and propensities for policy change? The purpose of this study is to describe the social network structure of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee from 1922 to 2011 and to explore the relationship between changes in the network and policy trends. This study draws on policy network theory, network dynamics, Veto Player Theory and Prospect Theory which together posit that dynamic network structural characteristics influence policy outcomes. I introduce a dynamical theory of policy networks and describe some observable implications. This mixed method analysis is based on a new network dataset and follows two major lines of investigation. A structured, focused comparison of case studies associates changes in the Central Committee’s network structure in 1969, 1978, 1982, and 1997 with consequent policy outcomes and demonstrates the explanatory power of the dynamical theory. Statistical analyses of China’s foreign policies (1949-1978 and 1984-1995) and China’s domestic policies (1984-1995) suggest the dynamical theory is generalizable. Changes in paramount leader and potential competitor centralities and Central Committee centralization are important causal factors explaining the timing and type of intra-Party, domestic, and foreign policies.

Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies Interdepartmental Program - Political Science / Emizet N. Kisangani / The goal of this dissertation is two-fold. First, is to investigate the relationship between the consequences of state failure and terrorist sanctuaries, which is the prevailing explanation in extant literature. Post 9/11 United States counterterrorism policy has focused on the role of the state in providing safe haven or sanctuary to transnational terrorist organizations. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that both weak and strong states host terrorist sanctuaries. Thus, no clear explanation for why transnational terrorist sanctuaries are in some weak and strong states but not present in others currently exists. Second, this dissertation seeks to fill this gap by adopting Migdal’s (1988) state-society interaction approach to explain the presence of terrorist sanctuaries. This dissertation hypothesizes that the role of society’s structure and societal strongmen’s interactions with the state are an important determinant in whether or not transnational terrorist organizations will seek to establish safe haven within a given territory. Sageman’s (2008) hub and node approach on the operational capacities of transnational terrorist sanctuary networks helps to explain differences in types of sanctuaries. Using a newly constructed dataset on terrorist sanctuaries for quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis through case studies, this dissertation intends to show that the presence of terrorist sanctuaries in both weak and strong states can be understood through four state-society interaction typologies. The implications of this study are relevant for policymakers seeking to understand and counter the enduring threat of transnational terrorism across the globe.

Doctor of Philosophy / Security Studies Interdepartmental Program / Emizet Kisangani / The goals of this dissertation are two-fold. First is to investigate and explain the key variables responsible for the process whereby political parties form alliances with or create terrorist organizations. Second is to fill an important gap in the literature by offering a more precise conceptualization of the issues and a different theoretical view. Extant literature argues that institutional structural constraints, such as electoral systems, are more likely to lead political parties to create terrorist organizations. However, this dissertation hypothesizes that regime ideology is also an important factor explaining the creation of terrorist organizations by political parties regardless of structural institutional constraints. This dissertation seeks to illuminate existing fears and concerns about alliances between terrorist groups and political parties in states whose ruling party platform is based on leftist, rightist, centrist, or religious ideology. Using empirical methods, which includes both quantitative and case study approaches, this dissertation intends to show that particular kinds of party ideology is positively correlated with the formation of terrorist organizations even after controlling for institutional structural constraints. The implication of these findings is important for policymakers eager to create stable polities.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Since 1977, the State of Illinois has used a use-value method of assessing farmland for property taxes. The method establishes farmland value by determining a five year average of net income from the land that is capitalized using a five year average interest rate. Other real estate in Illinois follows a different procedure for assessment. For example, residential property is assessed at one-third of its market value. The differences among the methods of assessment for farmland and other types of real estate, along with recent market increases in farmland values and a strong agriculture economy, have led some to question the current method of farmland assessment. The objective of this thesis is to determine the financial impact to farmers resulting from changing from the current use-value assessment of farmland to market-value assessment. This is accomplished with two sub-objectives: determine the potential change in farmland values that could occur and to determine the impact on net farm income that could occur if property tax policy was changed to market-value assessment. To accomplish the first sub-objective, a model was developed to estimate farmland values in Illinois based on the current use-value assessment property tax policy. This model was then adjusted to estimate farmland values under a market-value assessment property tax policy. The models demonstrated that farmland values could fall 53 percent, or an average of $2,548 per acre, in the year immediately following implementation of a tax policy change. Once farmland values stabilize after implementation of the tax policy change, farmland values would be 30 percent less, or an average of $1,875 per acre less, under market-value assessment than under use-value assessment. A simulation of net farm income over a ten year time frame was then conducted to estimate the potential change in net farm income that could occur from a change to market-value assessment. Like farmland values, the greatest impact to net farm incomes occur in the first year market-value assessment is implemented. Farmland values and the resulting property taxes then stabilize during later years. The simulation of net farm income over a ten year time frame estimates that net farm income would be 8 percent lower per year, or a reduction in net farm incomes of an average of $12,721 per year, under market-value assessment. The analysis also showed the potential for an average of a 2 percent increase in the probability that net farm income would fall below zero over the simulation time frame. The analysis demonstrates that a change from use-value assessment to market-value assessment of farmland could reduce farmland values and net farm incomes. Such a change in policy is not in the best interests of farmers or the agriculture industry in Illinois, as the reduced values and incomes would have wide reaching negative consequences that could reach beyond farmers and farmland owners.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Christine Wilson / Methane digesters are a potential investment for a dairy farm. A digester can lower greenhouse gas emissions, manage manure waste, generate energy, provide fertilizer and recycle bedding. The AgSTAR project of the Environment Protection Agency describes anaerobic digesters as a solution to a problem dairy farmers have always had to solve but that has become more acute with the innovation of larger scale, confined animal feeding operations developed in response to the growing food demands of the world’s larger and more prosperous middle class population – what to do with cow manure. Digesters take cow manure and convert it into energy while also eliminating manure odor. Energy is the primary economic benefit of a digester. A dairy farmer can use the electricity or gas generated from the digester to fuel the energy needs of the farm. Selling gas or electricity on the market is a revenue source that largely determines the level of profit from investing in a digester. This thesis will explore the four economic factors required to make anaerobic digesters a viable economic investment for a 1,500 head cow herd in the United States. It is imperative that farmers are able to obtain a return on the investment as soon as possible as many do not have the capital to invest in a nearly $1 million project. Congress may need to provide additional incentives for farmers and utility companies to take waste and process to energy. The future for methane digesters looks profitable when energy and carbon markets are available and allowed to trade competitively. The federal government may consider focusing on incentives for the utility companies’ infrastructure to make purchases of renewable energy from a digester more economically attractive and efficient. Today, an obstacle for increasing the number of digesters in the United States is the cost associated with moving the energy from the digester and into the national natural gas to grid. Natural gas companies may need to be compensated for that expense plus the potential difficulties of dealing with multiple suppliers or digester owners. Electricity companies have a grid in place to power rural and urban communities. They have spent billions of dollars and decades to establish efficient routing of power to residents and businesses. Manure digesters are mostly located in rural areas that would also require an investment in infrastructure to move the energy from the digester to the power grid. Mandating net-metering would require energy companies to purchase renewable energy, but consumers may see an increase in their cost. Therefore, the answer to increasing the number of manure digesters in the United States may be to direct the incentives to utility companies to invest in expanding infrastructure rather than increasing digester owner subsidies. Although, the REAP grants are helpful for assisting farmers with startup installation costs, there may not be a need to increase that subsidy in the next farm bill if an energy bill includes incentives for energy companies to purchase renewable energy from digesters.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Security Studies / Dale R. Herspring / North Korea and the ruling Kim regime continues to present a unique security dilemma to both East Asia and the international community. The Kim regime's actions, which often include hostile military and diplomatic foreign policy actions, often seem inconsistent with parallel efforts to peacefully engage the international community. This research examines the following question: what has been the historic relationship between North Korea’s domestic conditions and its propensity to engage in “hostile” diplomatic and military activities? I also consider whether the concept of diversionary theory, the idea that leaders pursue external conflict when faced with domestic problems, is an explanation for these actions. The study initially proposes there is a relationship between North Korea’s domestic challenges and its willingness to engage in conflict activities aimed primarily at South Korea and the United States. To test these ideas, I conduct a quantitative analysis of North Korean event data collected from both US and Korean sources from 1960-2011 and a qualitative analysis of three case studies. My findings provide only limited support to the idea that internal conditions faced by the Kim regime influence its conflict behavior. More influential are a select number of external conditions, especially those involving South Korea, which often prompt North Korean responses and heightened conflict levels. This research also finds that the ruling Kim regime has often turned to diversion-type actions as a means to achieve domestic goals, yet diversionary theory itself is insufficient to explain these activities. North Korea represents an ongoing security dilemma for both East Asia and the international community and in this study, I demonstrate how historical and political science methods can be used to examine and explain the actions of this reclusive state.