Die vorliegende Dissertation umfasst vier Aufsätze, von denen die ersten beiden die regionale und individuelle Persistenz von Arbeitslosigkeit analysieren. Der dritte Aufsatz erforscht das passende Design für die Höhe von finanziellen Leistungen im Rahmen von Cash-Transfer-Programmen und der vierte Aufsatz präsentiert eine alternative internationale Armutsgrenze verglichen mit der aktuellen offiziellen Armutsgrenze der Weltbank. Während die ersten drei Essays sich auf die Situation Indonesiens beziehen, geht der vierte Aufsatz auf die Situation aller Entwicklungsländer ein. Der erste Essay testet die Hysterese-Hypothese gegen verschiedene Hypothesen zur Persistenz von Arbeitslosigkeitsraten in den Provinzen Indonesiens und verwendet dabei Zeitreihen- und Panel-Unit-Root-Analysen mit Daten aus den Jahren 1990 bis 2012. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einerseits, dass die meisten individuellen Tests auf Provinzebene, die sich auf lineare Trends und CBS-Definitionen stützen, die Hysterese-Hypothese nicht verwerfen können. Andererseits wird die Hysterese-Vermutung vermehrt verworfen, wenn die Tests quadratische Trends und die alte Definition (U1) nutzen. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Tests, die die Hysterese-Hypothese anhand verschiedener Sample-Kategorien, wie beispielsweise Geschlecht, analysieren, legen das Verwerfen der Hypothese ebenfalls nahe. Wenn die Ergebnisse mittels Panel-Daten untersucht werden, verwirft die Mehrheit der Tests Hysterese, ganz gleich ob lineare oder quadratische Trends benutzt werden. Schließlich stellt der Artikel fest, dass lokale Wirtschaftsmaßnahmen zur Investitionsförderung und Politiken, die auf das Wachstum der realen regionalen Mindestlöhne ausgerichtet sind, sich besser als die Erhöhung lokaler staatlicher Ausgaben dazu eignen, die Arbeitslosenquote zu senken und sie an normale Levels auf den lokalen Arbeitsmärkten anzupassen. Der zweite Essay führt eine dynamische Probit-Analyse bezüglich dem Auftreten individueller Arbeitslosigkeit durch und benutzt dabei Paneldaten des National Socio-Economic Surveys (Susenas) von 2008-2010. Der Aufsatz vergleicht mehrere dynamische Random-Effects-Schätzer miteinander, wobei er besonders auf die Ansätze von Heckman (1981) und Wooldridge (2005) eingeht. Die Ergebnisse finden starke Belege für die Persistenz bzw. die zeitliche Abhängigkeit individueller Arbeitslosigkeit in Indonesien. Dieses Resultat fügt sich in die Theorie des "Scar-Unemployment" ein. Der dritte Essay untersucht die derzeitige Empfängergruppe von Cash-Transfer-Programmen (mit Fokus auf BLT und PKH Programmen) in Indonesien. Als Alternative zu bestehenden, fixen, staatlichen Leistungen der indonesischen Regierung im Rahmen der Cash-Transfer-Programme, schlägt der Aufsatz bessere Methoden für das Design und die Berechnung der Höhe der finanziellen Unterstützung vor. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine signifikante Anzahl von nicht-armen oder nicht-berechtigten Haushalten staatliche Leistungen erhalten. Auf der Grundlage von Simulationen ergeben sich deshalb folgende alternative Optionen für die Höhe der Auszahlungen: (1) die Transferzahlungen so anpassen, dass sie dem Einkommensdefizit des armen Haushalts zzgl. der erwarteten Inflation entsprechen, oder (2) die Leistungen so auszahlen, dass sie dem 75%-Perzentil des Einkommensdefizits der Haushalte zzgl. der erwarteten Inflation in den entsprechenden Provinzen entsprechen. Diese zwei alternativen Optionen reduzieren die regionalen Armutsraten signifikant verglichen mit der derzeitigen fixen und generellen staatlichen Transferleistung. Schließlich zeigen wir mit dem letzten Aufsatz, dass die von Ravallion, Chen, und Sangraula (2009) geschätzte Beziehung zwischen durchschnittlichem Konsum und nationalen Armutsgrenzen für die Herleitung der absoluten internationalen Armutsgrenze in Höhe von $1.25 pro Tag statistisch problematisch ist. Unsere alternative statistische Schätzung erzeugt einen Punktschätzer einer absoluten internationalen Armutsgrenze, der substanziell höher liegt als $1.25 pro Tag; allerdings verfügen die Schätzer über sehr hohe Standardfehler.

This thesis is comprised of three distinct chapters, each of which is concerned in some way with the measurement of poverty. The first chapter provides social preference conditions which are both necessary and sufficient for a poverty line to arise endogenously. In so doing, it turns out that the apparently independent 'identification' and 'aggregation' problems in poverty measurement are subtly intertwined. Necessary and sufficient conditions are provided for the existence of both relative and absolute poverty lines. In each case, one of the conditions is a familiar weak monotonicity property. The other conditions are simple consistency requirements.In the second chapter, we propose classes of intertemporal poverty measures which take into account both the debilitating impact of prolonged spells in poverty and the mitigating effect of periods of affluence on subsequent poverty. The weight assigned to the level of poverty in each time period depends on the length of the preceding spell of poverty or of non-poverty. The proposed classes of intertemporal poverty measures are quite general and allow for a range of possible judgements as to the overall impact on a poor period of preceding spells of poverty or affluence. We discuss the properties of the proposed classes of measures and axiomatically characterize them.The third chapter is an empirical application of the intertemporal poverty measures proposed in the second chapter. The new measures, together with an existing intertemporal poverty measure from the literature, are used to analyse intertemporal poverty in Great Britain during the period 1991-2005, using data from the British Household Panel Survey. Previous studies on poverty using this data-set have employed static measures of poverty. We illustrate how the use of intertemporal poverty measures makes it possible to analyse aspects of poverty which cannot be captured by static, annual, measures of poverty. We then model the determinants of intertemporal poverty, conditional upon being poor, using a Heckman two-step selection model.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carolina de Almeida Lernic.pdf: 1207077 bytes, checksum: 0692ef940603a99cd8eff11eaa59384c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-06 / This study aimed to conduct a study on the main variables that influence poverty and income concentration, and through these data, compared the main policies implemented, between the decades from 1960 to 2010, which eased or worsened these issues in Brazil. Were taken as basic social indicators as Gini Index, Poverty Line, Wages, Employment index. Viewing a successive overview of three decades - 1960, 1970 and 1980 - it is concluded that there were times in which an improvement in income distribution and poverty was real, in 1970, for example, however, due to the fragility of the Brazilian economy, this situation could not be sustained for long. In an overview, the Real Plan promoted the resumption of economic growth, through the control of inflation. However, it is mainly in the 2000s, that displaying major improvements in the levels of concentration of wealth and poverty / O presente trabalho teve como objetivo realizar um estudo acerca das principais variáveis que influenciam a pobreza e a concentração de renda, e por meio desses dados, comparou as principais políticas implementadas, entre as décadas de 1960 a 2010, que amenizaram ou agravaram estas questões no Brasil. Foram tomados como base indicadores sociais como Índice de Gini, Linha da Pobreza, Salário Mínimo, índice de Emprego. Visualizando um panorama sucessivo das três décadas 1960, 1970 e 1980 conclui-se que houve momentos nos quais uma melhoria na distribuição de renda e na pobreza foi real, em 1970, por exemplo, porém, em função da fragilidade da economia brasileira, essa situação não pôde ser sustentada por muito tempo. Em um panorama geral, o Plano Real promoveu a retomada do crescimento econômico, via controle da inflação. Porém, é principalmente, na década de 2000, que são visualizadas grandes melhorias nos níveis de concentração de renda e de pobreza

O desenvolvimento econômico mostra-se um instrumento fundamental numa das questões cruciais a toda a população e aos formuladores de políticas públicas: a redução da pobreza. As experiências ao redor do mundo e durante os tempos têm mostrado que os países e mesmo as regiões dentro deles crescem de maneira desigual. Do mesmo modo, a distribuição de renda dentro deles e entre eles não é homogênea, podendo beneficiar determinadas parcelas da população. Para tratar desse enfoque, o presente trabalho explora o tema crescimento pró-pobre, que sinteticamente traduz-se como aquele em que a população de mais baixa renda efetivamente se beneficia do crescimento. Apresenta-se o debate conceitual e histórico, as experiências ao redor do mundo e do Brasil, os aspectos significativos e as condições que tenham se mostrado favoráveis ao crescimento pró-pobre. Adicionalmente discutem-se as políticas públicas que podem promover o bom crescimento. De posse desse ferramental, introduziu-se o índice “G” de crescimento para empiricamente avaliar, por meio de dados do IBGE, o crescimento no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no período compreendido entre 1991 e 2000. Reforçando a tese de que o desenvolvimento não é neutro sob o ponto de vista de distribuição de renda, os resultados para as diferentes regiões do RS da década de 1990 mostraram-se heterogêneos, de pró-pobres a pró-ricos, passando por empobrecedores. Na média, no entanto, o crescimento foi pró-rico. / Economic development has appeared itself as a major instrument considering a crucial question for the whole population and policy makers: poverty reduction. Experiences around the world and through the years has shown unequal growth among countries and even in its regions. In this sense, income distribution in the countries and among them isn´t homogeneous, which may benefit just part of individuals. In order to discuss this approache, the present paper examines pro-poor growth notion, which basically occurs when the poorest population in fact benefit from economic growth. A conceptual and historical debate is presented, as well the experiences around the world and in Brazil, significant aspects and conditions that has been favorable in order to achieve pro-poor growth.Additionally, public policies that may promote a “good” growth are discussed. Having all this set of knowledge in mind, the “G” growth index is introduced to empirically evaluate Rio Grande do Sul state growth beetwen 1991 and 2000, using IBGE data. The results regarding the different regions in RS during the 1990 decade has been heterogeneous, reinforcing the idea that development is not neutral considering income distribution. They varied from pro-rich to pro-poor, including anti-poor situations. Therefore, it´s average was pro-rich.

O desenvolvimento econômico mostra-se um instrumento fundamental numa das questões cruciais a toda a população e aos formuladores de políticas públicas: a redução da pobreza. As experiências ao redor do mundo e durante os tempos têm mostrado que os países e mesmo as regiões dentro deles crescem de maneira desigual. Do mesmo modo, a distribuição de renda dentro deles e entre eles não é homogênea, podendo beneficiar determinadas parcelas da população. Para tratar desse enfoque, o presente trabalho explora o tema crescimento pró-pobre, que sinteticamente traduz-se como aquele em que a população de mais baixa renda efetivamente se beneficia do crescimento. Apresenta-se o debate conceitual e histórico, as experiências ao redor do mundo e do Brasil, os aspectos significativos e as condições que tenham se mostrado favoráveis ao crescimento pró-pobre. Adicionalmente discutem-se as políticas públicas que podem promover o bom crescimento. De posse desse ferramental, introduziu-se o índice “G” de crescimento para empiricamente avaliar, por meio de dados do IBGE, o crescimento no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no período compreendido entre 1991 e 2000. Reforçando a tese de que o desenvolvimento não é neutro sob o ponto de vista de distribuição de renda, os resultados para as diferentes regiões do RS da década de 1990 mostraram-se heterogêneos, de pró-pobres a pró-ricos, passando por empobrecedores. Na média, no entanto, o crescimento foi pró-rico. / Economic development has appeared itself as a major instrument considering a crucial question for the whole population and policy makers: poverty reduction. Experiences around the world and through the years has shown unequal growth among countries and even in its regions. In this sense, income distribution in the countries and among them isn´t homogeneous, which may benefit just part of individuals. In order to discuss this approache, the present paper examines pro-poor growth notion, which basically occurs when the poorest population in fact benefit from economic growth. A conceptual and historical debate is presented, as well the experiences around the world and in Brazil, significant aspects and conditions that has been favorable in order to achieve pro-poor growth.Additionally, public policies that may promote a “good” growth are discussed. Having all this set of knowledge in mind, the “G” growth index is introduced to empirically evaluate Rio Grande do Sul state growth beetwen 1991 and 2000, using IBGE data. The results regarding the different regions in RS during the 1990 decade has been heterogeneous, reinforcing the idea that development is not neutral considering income distribution. They varied from pro-rich to pro-poor, including anti-poor situations. Therefore, it´s average was pro-rich.

O desenvolvimento econômico mostra-se um instrumento fundamental numa das questões cruciais a toda a população e aos formuladores de políticas públicas: a redução da pobreza. As experiências ao redor do mundo e durante os tempos têm mostrado que os países e mesmo as regiões dentro deles crescem de maneira desigual. Do mesmo modo, a distribuição de renda dentro deles e entre eles não é homogênea, podendo beneficiar determinadas parcelas da população. Para tratar desse enfoque, o presente trabalho explora o tema crescimento pró-pobre, que sinteticamente traduz-se como aquele em que a população de mais baixa renda efetivamente se beneficia do crescimento. Apresenta-se o debate conceitual e histórico, as experiências ao redor do mundo e do Brasil, os aspectos significativos e as condições que tenham se mostrado favoráveis ao crescimento pró-pobre. Adicionalmente discutem-se as políticas públicas que podem promover o bom crescimento. De posse desse ferramental, introduziu-se o índice “G” de crescimento para empiricamente avaliar, por meio de dados do IBGE, o crescimento no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no período compreendido entre 1991 e 2000. Reforçando a tese de que o desenvolvimento não é neutro sob o ponto de vista de distribuição de renda, os resultados para as diferentes regiões do RS da década de 1990 mostraram-se heterogêneos, de pró-pobres a pró-ricos, passando por empobrecedores. Na média, no entanto, o crescimento foi pró-rico. / Economic development has appeared itself as a major instrument considering a crucial question for the whole population and policy makers: poverty reduction. Experiences around the world and through the years has shown unequal growth among countries and even in its regions. In this sense, income distribution in the countries and among them isn´t homogeneous, which may benefit just part of individuals. In order to discuss this approache, the present paper examines pro-poor growth notion, which basically occurs when the poorest population in fact benefit from economic growth. A conceptual and historical debate is presented, as well the experiences around the world and in Brazil, significant aspects and conditions that has been favorable in order to achieve pro-poor growth.Additionally, public policies that may promote a “good” growth are discussed. Having all this set of knowledge in mind, the “G” growth index is introduced to empirically evaluate Rio Grande do Sul state growth beetwen 1991 and 2000, using IBGE data. The results regarding the different regions in RS during the 1990 decade has been heterogeneous, reinforcing the idea that development is not neutral considering income distribution. They varied from pro-rich to pro-poor, including anti-poor situations. Therefore, it´s average was pro-rich.

In this thesis the feasibility of making social transfers conditional in South Africa is examined with specific focus on the Child Support Grant. Currently, there are more than 8.7 million children receiving Child Support Grants, which is impacting positively on poverty alleviation. Yet, social outcomes, especially in health and education are poor. The conditionality of transfers will compel the parents/guardians of these children to ensure that the children regularly attend school and also utilise the health services. Conditional cash transfers, by their nature, attempt to address the low demand for these services, which are available but are not being utilised. The National Income Dynamic Study (NIDS) is employed to test empirically whether it will be feasible to institute conditionality to the CSG. The methodology adopted is to determine if there is any statistically significant difference (education and health outcomes) between the recipients of the CSG with non-recipients of the CSG. Moreover, the population (as extrapolated from the sample) is separated into four groups, namely, children that qualify and receive the grant (QR), children that qualify and do not receive the grant (QNR), children that do not qualify and receive the grant (NQR) and children that do not qualify and do not receive the grant (NQNR). Subsequently, educational and health outcomes are compared between these groups to determine if there is any statistically significant difference between them. The results demonstrate that school attendance is high among children, and there is no significant difference in school attendance between the recipients and non-recipients of the CSG; as well as between the QR, QNR, NQR and NQNR. Moreover, there is no substantial difference in education outcomes (grade repetition) between the recipients and non-recipients of the CSG; as well as between the four groups. Similar results are found for health where there is no statistically significant difference between the groups regarding utilisation of health services as well as health outcomes. Therefore, conditionality of the CSG would not be feasible, as it does not address the causes of poor health and education outcomes, which are mainly due to supply-side deficiencies. Government should rather strengthen current poverty alleviation policies which seem to be impacting positively on poverty reduction. / Economics / D. Com (Economics)

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2005.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2005.