Text in English / Although research paradigms and philosophies are highly regarded as frameworks and guides for choices of methods, application thereof is not evident. One of the reasons for the relatively limited application is the complexity and understanding surrounding paradigms and philosophies, making it hard for scholars to determine their stances and implications. This study describes a model for automatically predicting peoples’ paradigm and philosophical stance, including meaning, and their impact on research by helping the user determine the paradigm and philosophical stance closest to their beliefs. Paradigm and philosophical attributes are automatically derived from a set of structured questions that use information matching techniques. The development of a model for Research Paradigm and Philosophy Index (RPPI) follows a two-phase approach. The first phase involves automatic extraction of key indicators from a composed database that utilises an indexing scheme with different philosophies and associated implications. The second phase applies a matchmaking technique that automatically draws information reflecting the user’s attribute. This type of technology exists, but mainly in the dating and career matching fields. None exists for research paradigm and philosophical stances. The prototype system was designed and implemented to serve as a proof of concept, and was developed in Angular, using the Visual Studio Code, and Java, using Eclipse. The database was created using MySQL. The prototype system was designed and implemented to serve as a proof of concept due to the Intellectual Property nature of the product. Usability testing was conducted and results show that the participants agreed the system was simple, straight-forward to use, quite user-friendly and easy to learn, with easy navigation through menu items. / Computer Science / M.Sc. (Computing)

Exames de Comparação Forense de Locutores apresentam características complexas, demandando análises demoradas quando realizadas manualmente. Propõe-se um método para reconhecimento automático de vogais com extração de características para análises acústicas, objetivando-se contribuir com uma ferramenta de apoio nesses exames. A proposta baseia-se na medição dos formantes através de LPC (Linear Predictive Coding), seletivamente por detecção da frequência fundamental, taxa de passagem por zero, largura de banda e continuidade, sendo o agrupamento das amostras realizado por meio do método k-means. Experimentos realizados com amostras de três diferentes bases de dados trouxeram resultados promissores, com localização das regiões correspondentes a cinco das vogais do Português Brasileiro, propiciando a visualização do comportamento do trato vocal de um falante, assim como detecção de trechos correspondentes as vogais-alvo. / Forensic speaker comparison exams have complex characteristics, demanding a long time for manual analysis. A method for automatic recognition of vowels, providing feature extraction for acoustic analysis is proposed, aiming to contribute as a support tool in these exams. The proposal is based in formant measurements by LPC (Linear Predictive Coding), selectively by fundamental frequency detection, zero crossing rate, bandwidth and continuity, with the clustering being done by the k-means method. Experiments using samples from three different databases have shown promising results, in which the regions corresponding to five of the Brasilian Portuguese vowels were successfully located, providing visualization of a speaker’s vocal tract behavior, as well as the detection of segments corresponding to target vowels.

Exames de Comparação Forense de Locutores apresentam características complexas, demandando análises demoradas quando realizadas manualmente. Propõe-se um método para reconhecimento automático de vogais com extração de características para análises acústicas, objetivando-se contribuir com uma ferramenta de apoio nesses exames. A proposta baseia-se na medição dos formantes através de LPC (Linear Predictive Coding), seletivamente por detecção da frequência fundamental, taxa de passagem por zero, largura de banda e continuidade, sendo o agrupamento das amostras realizado por meio do método k-means. Experimentos realizados com amostras de três diferentes bases de dados trouxeram resultados promissores, com localização das regiões correspondentes a cinco das vogais do Português Brasileiro, propiciando a visualização do comportamento do trato vocal de um falante, assim como detecção de trechos correspondentes as vogais-alvo. / Forensic speaker comparison exams have complex characteristics, demanding a long time for manual analysis. A method for automatic recognition of vowels, providing feature extraction for acoustic analysis is proposed, aiming to contribute as a support tool in these exams. The proposal is based in formant measurements by LPC (Linear Predictive Coding), selectively by fundamental frequency detection, zero crossing rate, bandwidth and continuity, with the clustering being done by the k-means method. Experiments using samples from three different databases have shown promising results, in which the regions corresponding to five of the Brasilian Portuguese vowels were successfully located, providing visualization of a speaker’s vocal tract behavior, as well as the detection of segments corresponding to target vowels.

Nowadays, the hydrologic modeling has become an essential tool for predicting the hydrodynamic behavior in a watershed due to the importance of the detailed estimative of the water balance for environmental management in a sustainable manner. However, the phenomena involved in this cycle have large spatial and temporal variations, which complicates their estimation. In this context, the objectives set for this study is the evaluation of the production of water - river Poxim açu , using the SWAT hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessmente Tool) . The calibration model was manually performed for a period in the year 2012, considering some relevant geological aspects of the basin under study, resulting in a calibration option from related to groundwater flow parameters and obtaining results NSE (0,73), PBIAS (-9,86) and RSR (0.52) . Were performed validation procedures which observed similarities between the results of water production with the results obtained by Silva (2013) for the same watershed in 2011. The model was used for predictive simulation of filling the dam Syndicalist Jaime Umbelino de Souza at river Poxim-açu, besides being subjected to simulations with rainfall data from rainfall stations in the municipalities of Itaporanga D´Ajuda and Aracaju to reviews of water production responses. The result was satisfactory, with fit temporal very good between recorded predictive filling and filling. The study concludes that the SWAT model applies satisfactorily in performing predictive simulations of water production in the basin of Poxim-açu river in Sergipe. Also concludes that the model applies satisfactorily in hydrological studies of the watershed in question. Regarding at Regional Development and the Environment, the study recommends more detailed research on the hydrogeological aspects of the region, aiming at quantitative and qualitative preservation of existing large underground spring, which represents an important meaning for human supply of Aracaju population and to maintaining the balance of coastal agroecosystems. / Nos dias atuais, a modelagem hidrológica tornou-se ferramenta essencial para predição do comportamento hidrodinâmico em uma bacia hidrográfica devido à importância que tem a detalhada estimativa do balanço hídrico para a gestão ambiental de modo sustentável. Entretanto, os fenômenos envolvidos neste ciclo apresentam grandes variações espaçotemporais, o que dificulta a sua estimativa. Neste contexto, o objetivo estabelecido para o presente estudo é o da avaliação da produção de água do rio Poxim-açu, utilizando o modelo hidrológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessmente Tool). A calibração do modelo foi realizada manualmente para um período compreendido no ano de 2012, considerando-se alguns aspectos geológicos pertinentes a bacia em estudo, resultando em uma opção de calibração a partir dos parâmetros relacionados ao fluxo das águas subterrâneas e obtendo-se resultados de NSE (0,73), PBIAS (-9,86) e RSR (0,52). Realizou-se procedimentos de validação onde se observou similaridades entre os resultados da produção de água com os resultados obtidos por Silva (2013) para a mesma bacia hidrográfica no ano de 2011. O modelo desenvolvido foi utilizado para simulação preditiva do enchimento da barragem Sindicalista Jaime Umbelino de Souza, no rio Poxim-açu, além de ter sido submetido a simulações com dados de chuvas das estações pluviométricas dos municípios de Itaporanga D´Ajuda e de Aracaju para avaliações das respostas da produção de água. O resultado obtido foi satisfatório, com muito bom encaixe temporal entre o enchimento preditivo e o enchimento registrado. O estudo conclui que o modelo SWAT é aplicável satisfatoriamente na realização de simulações preditivas da produção de água na bacia hidrográfica do rio Poxim-açu em Sergipe. Conclui também que o modelo é aplicável satisfatoriamente em estudos hidrológicos da bacia hidrográfica em questão. Em relação ao Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente regional, o estudo recomenda que se aprofundem pesquisas quanto aos aspectos hidrogeológicos da região, com vistas à preservação quanti-qualitativa do grande manancial subterrâneo existente, que representa importante significado para o abastecimento humano da população Aracajuana e para a manutenção do equilíbrio de agroecossistemas litorâneos.

Orientador: Aluísio de Souza Pinheiro / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatítica e Computação Científica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T14:57:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Valk_Marcio_D.pdf: 2306844 bytes, checksum: 31162915c290291a91806cdc6f69f697 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Classificação e agrupamento de séries temporais são problemas bastante explorados na literatura atual. Muitas técnicas são apresentadas para resolver estes problemas. No entanto, as restrições necessárias, em geral, tornam os procedimentos específicos e aplicáveis somente a uma determinada classe de séries temporais. Além disso, muitas dessas abordagens são empíricas. Neste trabalho, propomos métodos para classificação e agrupamento de séries temporais baseados em quase U-estatísticas(Pinheiro et al. (2009) e Pinheiro et al. (2010)). Como núcleos das U-estatísticas são utilizadas métricas baseadas em ferramentas bem conhecidas na literatura de séries temporais, entre as quais o periodograma e a autocorrelação amostral. Três situações principais são consideradas: séries univariadas; séries multivariadas; e séries com valores aberrantes. _E demonstrada a normalidade assintética dos testes propostos para uma ampla classe de métricas e modelos. Os métodos são estudados também por simulação e ilustrados por aplicação em dados reais. / Abstract: Classifcation and clustering of time series are problems widely explored in the current literature. Many techniques are presented to solve these problems. However, the necessary restrictions in general, make the procedures specific and applicable only to a certain class of time series. Moreover, many of these approaches are empirical. We present methods for classi_cation and clustering of time series based on Quasi U-statistics (Pinheiro et al. (2009) and Pinheiro et al. (2010)). As kernel of U-statistics are used metrics based on tools well known in the literature of time series, including the sample autocorrelation and periodogram. Three main situations are considered: univariate time series, multivariate time series, and time series with outliers. It is demonstrated the asymptotic normality of the proposed tests for a wide class of metrics and models. The methods are also studied by simulation and applied in a real data set. / Doutorado / Estatistica / Doutor em Estatística

Dans le contexte des systèmes commandés, l’effort de recherche est principalement porté sur la reconfiguration d’une loi de commande à l’apparition d’une situation de défaut. La reconfiguration a pour objectif de pallier au défaut et donc de maintenir les performances du système. La problématique principale de nos travaux est d’étudier ces systèmes du point de vue de leur sûreté de fonctionnement en s’interrogeant sur les causes qui engendrent une situation de défaut. Pour cela, il est supposé l’existence d’une relation étroite entre la commande d’un système, sa dégradation et ses défauts. Un cadre de modélisation stochastique de la dégradation est proposé intégrant l’usage du système ainsi que les différents modes de détérioration. Le pronostic de la durée de vie résiduelle RUL de l’actionneur -élément critique de ces systèmes- est dérivé de l’ensemble des modèles. La RUL est alors utilisée comme un outil de reconfiguration de la loi LQR (Linear Quadratic Regulator) d’un système mono-actionné dans le cadre d’une maintenance prédictive. L’impact de cette nouvelle politique de maintenance sur les performances statiques et dynamiques du système est évalué. Enfin, le comportement stochastique d’un système tolérant aux fautes basé sur une redondance d’actionneurs est étudié au travers des modèles développés / In the context of control systems, the research effort is focused on how to reconfigure the control law upon the occurrence of a faulty situation. The reconfiguration procedure aims to overcome the fault and thus to maintain system performances. The main issue of this thesis is to study these systems in terms of their dependability by questioning the causes that generate a fault. Then it is assumed a close relationship between the control of a system, its degradation and its faults. A stochastic modelling framework is proposed combining the use of the system and the various modes of deterioration. The actuator is assumed to be the most critical part of a system. The prognosis of its remaining life RUL is derived from these models. This RUL is then used as a tool for reconfiguring the LQR law (Linear Quadratic Regulator) of a system with a single actuator in the context of a predictive maintenance. The impact of this new maintenance policy on static and dynamic performances is assessed. Finally the stochastic behavior of a fault tolerant control system is studied by means of the achieved models

Les systèmes de contrôle-commande jouent un rôle important dans le développement de la civilisation et de la technologie moderne. La perte d’efficacité de l’actionneur agissant sur le système est nocive dans le sens où elle modifie le comportement du système par rapport à celui qui est désiré. Cette thèse est une contribution au pronostic de la durée de vie résiduelle (RUL) et à la maintenance des systèmes de contrôle-commande en boucle fermée avec des actionneurs soumis à dégradation. Dans une première contribution, un cadre de modélisation à l'aide d’un processus markovien déterministe par morceaux est considéré pour modéliser le comportement du système. Dans ce cadre, le comportement du système est représenté par des trajectoires déterministes qui sont intersectées par des sauts d'amplitude aléatoire se produisant à des instants aléatoires et modélisant le phénomène de dégradation discret de l'actionneur. La deuxième contribution est une méthode de pronostic de la RUL du système composée de deux étapes : estimation de la loi de probabilité de l'état du système à l'instant de pronostic par le filtre particulaire et calcul de la RUL qui nécessite l'estimation de la fiabilité du système à partir de cet instant. La troisième contribution correspond à la proposition d’une politique de maintenance à structure paramétrique permettant de prendre en compte dynamiquement les informations disponibles conjointement sur l'état et sur l'environnement courant du système et sous la contrainte de dates d'opportunité / The automatic control systems play an important role in the development of civilization and modern technology. The loss of effectiveness of the actuator acting on the system is harmful in the sense that it modifies the behavior of the system compared to that desired. This thesis is a contribution to the prognosis of the remaining useful life (RUL) and the maintenance of closed loop systems with actuators subjected to degradation. In the first contribution, a modeling framework with piecewise deterministic Markov process is considered in order to model the overall behavior of the system. In this context, the behavior of the system is represented by deterministic trajectories that are intersected by random size jumps occurring at random times and modeling the discrete degradation phenomenon of the actuator. The second contribution is a prognosis method of the system RUL which consists of two steps: the estimation of the probability distribution of the system state at the prognostic instant by particle filtering and the computation of the RUL which requires the estimation of the system reliability starting from the prognostic instant. The third contribution is the proposal of a parametric maintenance policy which dynamically take into account the available information on the state and on the current environment of the system and under the constraint of opportunity dates

Ocean-surface Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are essential in various thalassic applications, such as maritime communication, ocean monitoring, seawater examination, pollution detection, etc. Formed by simple structured sensor nodes, ocean-surface WSN can improve the data transmission rate, enhance the monitoring resolution, expand the geographical coverage, extend the observation period, and lower the cost compared to the vessel-based monitoring approaches. Despite the importance and the broad applications of ocean-surface WSNs, little is known about the stability of the wireless links among the sensors. Especially, research suffers from the lack of an accurate model that describes the environmnetal effects, including the ocean surface movements and the wind speed on the link stability. The inappropriate understanding of link stability can result in network protocols that are not robust to environmental interruptions. Such a shortcoming decreases the network reliability and degrades the accuracy of the network planning. To compensate for this shortcoming, in this dissertation, we provide a thorough analysis on the stability of the wireless links over the ocean. In particular, we investigate and capture the effects of ocean waves on the link stability through the following steps. First, we use the linear wave theory and obtain a novel stochastic model of Line-of-Sight (LoS) links over the ocean based on the realistic behavior of ocean waves. Second, we present and prove an important theorem on the level-crossing of Wide Sense Stationary (WSS) random processes, and combine that with our stochastic model of LoS links to study two important indicators of link stability, i.e., the blockage probability and the blockage and connectivity periods. The former indicates the probability that a LoS link is blocked by the ocean waves while the latter determines the duration of on/off periods of the LoS links over the ocean. The aforementioned stability parameters directly affect different stages of network design, such as choosing the antenna height, planning the sensors' deployment distances, determining the packet length, designing the retransmission and scheduling strategies in the Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols and transport layer protocols, selecting the fragmentation threshold in Internet Protocol (IP), etc., which will be discussed in the respective chapters. In the last part of our dissertation, we investigate the problem of linear prediction of ocean waves, which has special importance in the design of ocean-surface WSNs. In this regard, we first introduce a low-complexity metric for effectiveness of k-step-ahead linear prediction, which we refer to as efficiency curve. The significance of efficiency curve becomes evident when we decide upon the number of previous samples in the linear prediction model, and determine the extent to which the predictor forecasts the future. After efficiency curve, we formulate an adaptive Wiener filter to predict the ocean waves and adapt the prediction model according to the environmental changes. / Doctor of Philosophy / Covering almost three quarters of the earth and supplying half of its oxygen, oceans are vital to the support of life on our planet. It is important to continuously monitor different parts of the ocean environment for tracking climate changes, detecting pollution, etc. However, the existing monitoring approaches have serious weaknesses, which prevent us from constantly monitoring the state of ocean, and drastically limit the geographical coverage. For instance, the traditional ocean monitoring system using oceanographic research vessels is time-consuming and expensive. Besides, it has low resolution in time and space, which poses serious challenges to oceanographers by providing under-sampled records of the ocean. To compensate for these defects, one of the promising alternatives is to employ Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) which has many advantages, such as real-time access to data for a longer period of time and a larger geographical coverage of the ocean, higher resolution of monitoring, faster processing of collected data and instantaneous transmission to onshore monitoring centers. With the benefit of simple structure sensor nodes, ocean-surface WSNs can also decrease the cost by at least one order of magnitude compared to the conventional approaches. Despite the advantages that ocean surface WSN have over traditional ocean monitoring methods, ocean surface WSN research suffers from the lack of an accurate model that describes the stability of wireless links among sensor nodes. While some of the existing literature has developed accurate models of the electromagnetic wave propagation over the ocean surface, they have failed to consider the environmental effects, such as ocean waves on the stability of the links. To fill this void, in this dissertation, we investigate ocean surface waves' effects on the Line-of-Sight (LoS) link between the sensors in an ocean-surface WSN. Specifically, we derive the blockage probability, and the blockage and connectivity periods of LoS links between a transmitter and receiver pair due to wave movements. In addition to the link stability analysis, we dedicate the last part of this dissertation to look into the problem of linear prediction of ocean waves, which has special importance in the design process of ocean-surface WSNs. In this regard, we present a low-complexity metric for effectiveness of k-step-ahead linear prediction, and formulate an adaptive Wiener filter to predict the ocean waves and adapt the prediction model according to the environmental changes.

Aujourd'hui, les systèmes industriels deviennent de plus en plus complexes. Cette complexité est due d’une part à la structure du système qui ne se résume pas à des structures classiques en fiabilité, d’autre part à la prise en compte de composants présentant des phénomènes de dégradation graduelle que des systèmes de monitoring permettent de surveiller. Ceci mène à l'objectif de cette thèse portant sur le développement des stratégies de maintenance prévisionnelle pour des systèmes multi-composants complexes. Les politiques envisagées proposent notamment des stratégies de regroupement de composants permettant de tirer des dépendances économiques identifiées. Des facteurs d'importance permettant de prendre en compte la structure du système et la dépendance économique sont développés et combinés avec les évaluations de fiabilité prévisionnelle des composants pour l’élaboration de règles de décision de regroupement. De plus, un couplage des règles de décision de maintenance et de gestion des stocks est également étudié. L’ensemble des études menées montrent l’intérêt de la prise en compte de la fiabilité prévisionnelle des composants, des dépendances économiques et de la structure complexe du système dans l'aide à la décision de maintenance et de gestion des stocks. L’avantage des stratégies développées est vérifié en les comparant à d’autres existantes dans la littérature / Today, industrial systems become more and more complex. The complexity is due partly to the structure of the system that cannot be reduced to classic structure reliability (series structures, parallel structures, series-parallel structures, etc), secondly the consideration of components with gradual degradation phenomena that can be monitored. This leads to the main purpose of this thesis on the development of predictive maintenance strategies for complex multi-component systems. The proposed policies provide maintenance grouping strategies to take advantage of the economic dependence between components. The predictive reliability of components and importance measures allowing taking into account the structure of the system and economic dependence are developed to construct the grouping decision rules. Moreover, a joint decision rule for maintenance and spare parts provisioning is also studied.All the conducted studies show the interest in the consideration of the predictive reliability of components, economic dependencies as well as complex structure of the system in maintenance decisions and spare parts provisioning. The advantage of the developed strategies is confirmed by comparing with the other existing strategies in the literature