This study dealt with shrinkage in multiple correlation coefficients computed for sample data when these coefficients are compared to the multiple correlation coefficients for populations and the effect of the ratio of utilized predictors to original predictors on the shrinkage in R square. The study sought to provide the rationale for selection of the shrinkage formula when the correlations between the predictors and the criterion are known and determine which of the three shrinkage formulas (Browne, Darlington, or Wherry) will yield the R square from sample data that is closest to the R square for the population data.

Early behavior problems, such as childhood aggression, emerge in the second year of life and decrease prior to school entry for typically developing children. However, some children show frequent and persistent aggression and may be at risk for subsequent difficulties that lead to poor school and life outcomes. The current study aimed to identify aggression patterns in children from toddlerhood to early adolescence for boys and girls together and separately. This study also explored early influences on aggressive behaviors at age two, such as mothers’ parenting behaviors, cumulative family risk, and early child characteristics. A range of difficulties in early adolescence were investigated, including poor social skills, low academic success, internalizing problems (e.g., depression and anxiety), and delinquent behaviors. Data from a previous study of 3,000 families and children, the Early Head Start Research and Evaluation longitudinal study, which followed families and children from infancy to early adolescence were examined. Four aggression patterns were found, characterized by changes over time in the amount of aggressive behaviors exhibited, applicable to both boys and girls: low-stable, moderate-decreasing, moderate-increasing, and high-stable. Early parenting and development during toddlerhood discriminated these distinctive aggression patterns. Compared with children in the low-stable group, boys in the moderate-decreasing and high-stable groups, and girls in the high-stable group were less likely to have mothers using positive parenting behaviors. Boys in the moderate-decreasing group and girls in the high-stable group were more likely to show delayed language development. Boys in the moderate-decreasing and high-stable groups were more likely to indicate poor emotional regulation. Moreover, compared with children in the low-stable group, those in the moderate-decreasing, moderate-increasing, or high-stable groups tended to show difficulties in early adolescence, such as lack of social skills, lower academic success, more internalizing problems, and delinquent behaviors. Altogether, young children exhibiting high levels of aggression over time were at the highest risk for later social, behavioral, and academic problems when, at age two, they had mothers with less positive parenting behaviors or when they showed poor language development or poor emotional regulation.

BACKGROUND:Some comprehensive cancer centers in industrialized countries have reported improved outcomes in their cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) patients. Little is known about the outcomes and predictors of CPA in cancer centers in other parts of the world. The objective of this study was to examine the predictors of CPA outcome in a comprehensive cancer center closed medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) located in Amman, Jordan.METHODS:In this retrospective single-center cohort study, we identified 104 patients who had a CPA during their stay in the ICU between 1/1/2008 and 6/30/2009. Demographic data and CPA-related variables and outcome were extracted from medical records. Comparisons between different variables and CPA outcome were conducted using logistic regression.RESULTS:The mean age of the group was 49.7+/-15.3years. The mean APACHE II score was 23.7+/-8.0. Thirty six patients (34.6%) were resuscitated successfully but 8 of them (7.7% of the cohort) left the ICU alive and only 6 out of the 8 (5.8% of the cohort) left the hospital alive. The following variables predict resuscitation failure: acute kidney injury (OR 1.7, CI: 1.1 - 2.6), being on mechanical ventilation (OR 3.8, CI: 1.3 - 11), refractory shock (OR 4.7, CI: 1.8 - 12) and CPR duration (OR 1.1, CI: 1.1 - 1.2).CONCLUSION:Survival among cancer patients who develop CPA in the ICU continues to be poor. Once cancer patients suffered a CPA in the ICU multiple factors predicted resuscitation failure but CPR duration was the only factor that predicted resuscitation failure and ICU as well as hospital mortality.

The effectiveness of a Group CBT programme for Social Phobia was assessed using 18 participants recruited from a routine practice setting. Therapy was based on CBT techniques as practiced routinely by the clinical practice, and were not modified for the study by factors such as strict exclusion criteria and adherence to rigid manualised treatments. Pre- to post-treatment effect sizes compared favourably with those reported in a meta-analysis (Taylor, 1996). The findings provide support for the accessibility and effectiveness of group CBT techniques for Social Phobia in field settings. While some individuals within the sample experienced dramatic improvement, some remained severely impaired even at post-treatment. The results of Hierarchical Multiple Regressions indicated that lower levels of pre-treatment depression severity, higher levels of attendance, and greater homework compliance, were predictive of more improvement on some, but not all, measures of outcome. Implications for treatment are discussed.

Der implantierbare Kardioverter-Defibrillator gehört zu der Behandlung von herzinsuffizienten Patienten. In dieser Arbeit wird eine Risikostratifizierung anhand der vorliegenden Grunderkrankung analysiert. Untersucht wurden 330 konsekutive Patienten mit ischämischer oder nicht-ischämischer dilatativer Kardiomyopathie, die zwischen 2009 und 2011 einen ICD erhalten haben. Im Rahmen des Follow-up von 19 ± 9 Monaten erlitten 29 % der Patienten adäquate ICD-Therapien. Als signifikante Risikofaktoren für adäquate Therapien waren die sekundärprophylaktische Implantation bei ICM-Patienten und die Präsenz von Vorhofflimmern bei DCM-Patienten zu beobachten. Die leitliniengerechte CRT-Implantation zeigte eine prophylaktische Wirkung bei ICM-Patienten.

Abstract A revised Developmental Delay (DD) category became effective in Arizona on September 30, 2009 and allows children who demonstrate significant delays in at least two developmental areas to receive services in special education up to age 10. In order for the educational team to determine that a student meets the criteria for DD, an assessment in all five developmental areas, including cognitive, physical, communication, adaptive, and social/emotional must be completed. However, areas typically included in a neuropsychological assessment, like attention and executive functioning or memory and learning, are typically not part of an educational evaluation and have the potential to adversely affect learning when there are deficits in these areas. DD is a highly prevalent group that has a wide variety of genetic, environmental, and societal risk factors. The definition varies greatly in research, education, medical or health-related fields, as well as by culture. Since the DD category is viable until age 10, outcome studies have been conducted to find out if children with DD continue in special education and if so, under what categories. It has been found that children with DD generally stay in special education and continue receiving services, most often as students with specific learning disability, mild intellectual disability, and speech/language impairment, in addition to other categories. There is limited information in the available literature regarding the neuropsychological strengths and weaknesses for this prevalent group. Moreover, there is limited information available regarding the possible predictors of reading achievement for children with DD. The first aim of the study was to determine how much variability in performance there was for children who met the educational criteria for DD in Arizona as well as to assess strengths and weaknesses compared to normative means. The second aim of this study was to find out if two specific scores from a neuropsychological battery found to be significantly lower in children with a reading disorder were also significant predictors of reading performance in children with DD. A third aim involved an exploratory analysis to determine if there was evidence of a pattern of strengths and weaknesses by delay type. Thirty-three children with DD ages 5 to 9 years were recruited for this study from a single school district in Southern Arizona. Children were administered measures of cognition, attention and executive functioning, memory and learning, sensorimotor skills, and visuospatial processing, and reading. The parent/guardian of the child completed a structured developmental history. For the first aim, the total sample was split into two groups by presence of cognitive delay and analyzed separately. Qualitatively, the data in the form of box-plots was examined. Levene's and Nonparametric Levene's tests were used to quantitatively evaluate variance in score distributions. Single sample t-tests were used to compare group mean scale or subscale scores to the appropriate normative means. The second aim was analyzed using the total sample of children with DD. Stepwise linear regression models were used to determine if Speeded Naming and Inhibition Naming Total Completion Time scores significantly predicted reading performance as measured by the Reading Cluster score from the WJ IV ACH for all children with DD. Two other subtest scores, which were observed to be within normal limits in children with reading disorder on the NEPSY-II special group study, were also analyzed with stepwise linear regression to confirm that they did not predict reading in children with DD, namely Memory for Designs Total Score and Geometric Puzzles. Lastly, for the third aim, those with each delay type were analyzed separately from those without the delay type (e.g., no communication delay and communication delay). Like the first aim, box-plots were generated to visually represent the data. DD group mean scores of each scale or subscale were also compared to the appropriate normative means by single sample t-tests. Results from this study indicated that the variation in the scores was not significantly different between groups, except for a measure of graphomotor speed and precision. Children with DD with a cognitive delay were found to exhibit a wide range of deficits, including deficits in cognition, reading, attention and executive functioning, language, memory and learning, sensorimotor, and visuospatial processing. Children without cognitive impairment did not demonstrate impairments in cognition and reading and demonstrated specific skill deficits for sustained attention, speeded naming with accuracy, immediate and long-term visual memory, memory for organized verbal information, phonological short-term memory, and fine motor speed. When the total sample was analyzed together, three high reading scores were identified as outliers from group reading performance. Both predictor variables were found to be moderately related to reading whether the outliers were in or out. Only one of the two predictors were found to significantly contribute to the predictive model whether the outliers were in or out yet the strength of the prediction was weak, suggesting there are likely better predictors of reading for children with DD. In the analysis of the non-predictors, when the outlier scores were left in, Geometric Puzzles, a measure of visuospatial perception and mental rotation was indicated as a significant predictor of reading. When the outliers were removed, neither score was significantly related with reading. Lastly, meaningful group strengths and weaknesses were seen when the total sample of children with DD was broken into groups by delay, even when the majority performed below normative means. The results of this study indicate that children with DD are at increased risk for significant difficulties in many of the areas included in neuropsychological assessment. This points to the need for many of these areas, namely attention and executive functioning, memory and learning, and visuospatial processing to be included in a comprehensive evaluation in the school setting. Moreover, knowledge of group strengths and weaknesses can aid intervention selection and implementation in addition to appropriate accommodations to facilitate learning. This can inform intervention implementation and design. More research is needed in this area to have a better understanding of how neurocognitive skills relate to reading since the predictors selected for this study were not strong predictors of reading performance for children with DD. Visuospatial perception and mental rotation may be more highly related for children with DD that have higher reading skills.

The high incidence rate of type II diabetes mellitus (type II DM) among Mexican American families in the South Texas region has contributed to disproportionately high medical costs, early death, and high comorbidity with depression. Certain factors have been previously associated with depression and type II DM. The purpose of this exploratory study was to investigate and describe whether selected variables contribute to Mexican American risk for depression when diagnosed with type II DM. Based on the theory of planned behavior, this exploratory study investigated whether acculturation, health behavioral belief, diet, and/or physical exercise adequately predicted depression among Mexican Americans who were diagnosed with type II DM (n = 103). The data were obtained from surveys completed by participants. The construct of acculturation was measured by the Short Acculturation Scale, health behavioral belief was measured by the Diabetes Health Belief Scale, diet and physical exercise was measured by a summary of Diabetes Self-Care Activities, and depression was measured by the Beck Depression Inventory - II. An exploratory stepwise multiple regression was used to generate an initial predictive equation based on the statistical contribution of one or more of the predictor variables. The findings revealed lack of physical exercise as a significant predictor of depression among participants. The social implications of this study are that it may help improve understanding of the psychiatric challenges that accompany type II DM and provide a better understanding among Mexican Americans of the connection between physical exercise and depression when screening and treating patients with type II DM. Subsequently, patients may receive more targeted screenings and holistic care, which will contribute to better medical care treatment and management.

Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) is a treatment for lumbar back pain and despitethe proven effcacy of the technology, there is a lack of knowledge in how the treatment outcome varies between different patients groups. Furthermore, since the method is costly, in the sense of material, surgery and follow-up time, a more accurate patient targeting would decrease healthcare costs. Within recent years, Real World Data (RWD) has become a vital source of information to describe the effects of medical treatments. The complexity, however, calls for new, innovative methods using a larger set of useful features to explain the outcome of SCS treatments. This study has employed machine learning algorithms, e.g., Random Forest Classier (RFC) boosting algorithms to finally compare the result with the baseline; Logistic regression (LR). The results retrieved was that RFC tend to classify successful and unsuccessful patients better while logistic regression was unstable regarding unbalanced data. In order to interpret the insights of the models, we also proposed a Soft Accuracy Measurement (SAM) method to explain how RFC and LR differ. Some factors have shown to impact the success of SCS. These factors were age, income, pain experience time and educational level. Many of these variables could also be supported by earlier studies on factors of success from lumbar spine surgery.

M. Tech. (Tourism and Hospitality Management, Faculty of Human Sciences)|, Vaal University of Technology. / Tourism is regarded as a modern-day engine of growth and one of the largest industries globally. In 2012, the G20 heads of state recognised tourism as a driver of growth and development as well as an industry that has the potential to spur global economic recovery. South Africa is currently receiving a higher number of first time visitors with the number of return visitors for leisure purposes very low. It is thus the aim of the study to identify the predictors of tourist’s intention to return to South Africa. Specifically, this study will focus on demographic characteristics, travel behaviour, travel motivations and satisfaction intention to return. This information can contribute to adjusting marketing and product strategies to enhance visitors’ intention to return. A quantitative survey was done at Aerial Cable Way (Table Mountain National Park) where 800 respondents were requested to participate in the study. The Cable Way attracts a high number of international visitors who was the population for this study. The questionnaire was distributed by fieldworkers who returned 720 completed questionnaires. The data was captured, analysed and interpreted to identify the predictors of visitor’s intention to return to South Africa as a tourism destination. The respondents were on average 40 years of age, mostly male, from the USA and UK respectively and married. They hold either a degree or a diploma and serve in professional or management occupations. When visiting South Africa these respondents stay on average 16 days, travel in groups of 3.71 and they prefer hotels and lodges. It was evident in this research that respondents were mainly first-time visitors, emphasizing the problem that this research assess. These respondents travel to enjoy Relaxation and Novelty, Social motivations, Cultural motivations, Personal Motivations and Product motivations of which Relaxation and Novelty and Cultural motivations were rated as the most important. These travel motivations were influenced by gender, occupation and accommodation preferences. Core to this study and addressing the main aim of the study was the finding that Communication, Experience, Safety and the Tourism offering contributes to willingness to return of which the Experience and Safety were the most important aspects. These willingness were also influenced by gender and occupation. Ultimately it is about the experience in South Africa. The relationship between willingness to return and travel motivations were also evident highlighting the inter- dependence of these variables. It was evident that marketing campaigns should be adjusted and more value-added products should be provided to increase intention to return. Continuous communication is needed with people that visited this country and showing new products, discount offers and unique products. Clearly the importance of intention to revisit is evident an aspect that needs attention in South Africa.

Durante décadas, a visão prevalente em ecologia de microrganismos era de que os fatores ambientais locais seriam os únicos agentes estruturantes das comunidades e dos padrões de coexistência das espécies. Entretando, estudos recentes têm fornecido evidência de que processos ligados a dispersão possam ser tão importantes quanto o ambiente local na estruturação das comunidades, reacendendo o debate em torno da hipótese clássica sobre a ubiquidade dos microrganismos. Neste estudo, nós examinamos os padrões de coexistência do fitoplâncton e os possíveis determinantes da variação espacial na composição das comunidades em 9 lagoas do sul do Brasil. Nós testamos se as espécies fitoplanctônicas apresentam um padrão não aleatório de coexistência através de um modelo nulo e se distância espacial ou a distância ambiental possuem relação com a similaridade na composição das comunidades. Nós também investigamos se as variáveis ambientais locais são bons preditores da abundância das espécies. Na análise de coexistência, nós não observamos um padrão significativo de estruturação dentro das lagoas, mas encontramos um padrão não-aleatório e segregado das espécies ao longo das lagoas, indicando que as espécies coexistem menos do que o esperado ao acaso nesta escala. A similaridade na composição das comunidades mostrou correlação significativa com a distância ambiental, mas não foi correlacionada com a distância geográfica entre os sítios. Além disso, a variação na abundância das espécies apresentou correlação significativa com as variáveis ambientais locais (transparência da água, condutividade, nitrato e ortofosfato). Em conclusão, nossos resultados apoiam a visão de que a variação espacial do fitoplâncton é melhor explicada pelo ambiente local. Nós não testamos a influência de variáveis históricas e filogenéticas sobre esses padrões, que podem ser temas de estudos futuros, a fim de elucidar ainda mais essas questões. / For decades, the main hypothesis in microbial ecology was that local environment would be the only mechanism structuring communities and patterns of species coexistence. However, recent studies have provided evidence that processes related to dispersion can be as important as the local environment for shaping biological communities, stimulating new debates on the classical hypothesis about the ubiquity of microorganisms. In this study, we examined the phytoplankton coexistence patterns and possible determinants of spatial variation in community composition in 9 lakes of southern Brazil. First, we use a null model analysis for tested whether the phytoplankton species show a nonrandom pattern of coexistence. We also tested whether spatial distance or environmental distance act as potential factors controlling community composition. Finally, we investigated whether local environmental variables are good predictors of species abundance. We did not observe a significant pattern of coexistence species in the within-lakes analysis, but we found a nonrandom pattern of coexistence and segregation of species across-lakes analysis, indicating that the species coexist less than expected by chance on this scale. Phytoplankton community composition showed a strong positive correlation with the environmental distance but was not correlated with the geographical distance between sites. Moreover, the variation in the abundance of species showed significant correlation with local environmental variables (water transparency, conductivity, nitrate and orthophosphate). In conclusion, our results support the view that the spatial variation of phytoplankton is best explained by the local environmental conditions. We suggest that the influences of historical and phylogenetic variables on these patterns, here not measured, be analyzed in future studies, to further elucidate these questions.