Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Academics, analysts and investors have always been intrigued by, and have always sought to identify with certainty, factors that determine investment returns and share price movements. In 1953 Maurice Kendall, following on the work of Louis Bachelier, made the revelation that share price movements followed a random pattern, i.e. they could not be predicted with certainty. Through continual research, two schools of thought emerged - fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentalists' perspective is that through thorough due diligence analysis of current and historical data, one will be able to identify good investment prospects.The latter stipulates that future price movements can be predicted from previous price movements, i.e. historical patterns replicate themselves over time. The random walk theory suggested by Kendall was followed by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as developed and refined by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black (1972). The CAPMrecognised risk (beta) as the key explanatory variable of returns. The CAPMremains the backbone of modern financial theory and is the basis against which all new developmentsare measured. Subsequent studies have attempted to find other explanatory variables of return other than beta. Banz (1981) found evidence of a relationship between size and returns later referred to as the size effect. Chen (1981 and 1983) found that after adjusting for risk factors, the size effect did not yield high returns adequately, thus challenging Banz's findings. In 1985, Chan, Chen and Hsieh using macro and micro economic variables found that given more accurate estimates of beta, no sized-based differences in returns could be observed. Reinganumin 1981 found evidence of high earnings-price (EjP) shares yielding abnormally high returns. He further found a strong relationship between size and earnings-to-price (EjP) ratio. Bhandari (1988) suggested that in addition to beta and size, leverage also played an important explanatory role of returns. Related studies by Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) and Jegadeesh (1992) found a multi-variable explanation of returns - market equity, beta, EjP ratio, size and other non-market factors. The combination of these factors led to the conclusion that the CAPM model had been misspecified. Fama and French (1992 and 1995) expanded the research and sought to establish the multi-dimensionality of beta. They found, inter alia, that equities with a high book value vis-a-vis their price realised higher returns than their counterparts. They further found profitability to be positively related to size. This led to a new ratio in financial analysis, the price book ratio (PB). The PB ratio has never emerged as a prominent analytical tool in the financial sector and has historically been superseded by the price earnings (PE) ratio. The author therefore seeks to establish the raison d' etre for the status quo by undertaking an empirical study of the JSE Securities Exchange for the period commencing 1989 and ending 1998. Using financial data obtainable from annual financial statements, the author proceeded to calculate PE and PB ratios. Tracing the mathematical derivation of the two ratios and using the Pearson correlation coefficient, trend analysis and the Spearman Rank correlation test, the author found that there exists prima facie evidence to suggest that the PE ratio could be used as a proxy for the PB ratio. This offers a partial explanation of the inconspicuous role of the PB ratio as an explanatory tool. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Akademici, analiste en beleggers stel steeds belang in en strewe om faktore wat beleggingsopbrengste en aandeleprysbewegings bepaal, met sekerheid te identifiseer. In 1953 het Maurice Kendal, gebaseer op die werk van Louis Bachelier, getoon dat aandelepryse 'n ewekansige patroon volg en as gevolg hiervan nie met sekerheid voorspel kan word nie. Navorsing het twee denkrigtings tot gevolg gehad naamlik fundamentele ontleding en tegniese analise. Fundamentele ontleding veronderstel dat winsgewende beleggingsgeleenthede vanuit 'n deeglik oorweegde impak analise van huidige en historiese data gemaak kan word. Tegniese analise stel voor dat toekomstige prysbewegings uit vorige prysbewegings afgelei en voorspel kan word, óf anders gestel, dat patrone hulself oor 'n sekere periode herhaal. Die stogastiese lopie teorie van Kendall is gevolg deur die markpryswaarderingsmodel (MPM) wat deur Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) en Black (1972) ontwikkel en verfyn is. Die MPM stel risiko (beta) as 'n sentrale veranderlike wat opbrengste voorspel. Die MPM vorm steeds die primêre uitgangspunt van finansiële teorie en die basis waaraan nuwe ontwikkelings gemeet word. Voortspruitend uit die voorafgaande studies, is daar gepoog om verdere veranderlikes anders as beta te ondersoek wat opbrengste voorspel. Banz (1981) toon aan dat daar 'n verhouding bestaan tussen grootte en opbrengste - naamlik die grootte-effek. Chen (1981 en 1983) het die gevolgtrekking gemaak dat die grootte-effek nie genoegsame hoë opbrengste lewer nadat risikofaktore in berekening gebring is nie. Gevolglik is Banz se bevindinge bevraagteken. In 1985 het Chan, Chen en Hsieh deur die gebruik van makro en mikro-ekonomiese veranderlikes bevind dat, gegewe 'n meer akkurate bepaling van beta, geen grootte gebaseerde opbrengste waargeneem kon word nie. Reinganum (1981) bevind dat bewyse bestaan dat aandele met hoë verdienste-prys abnormaal hoë opbrengste getoon het. Sterk verhoudings tussen grootte en die aandeel se prysverdienste verhouding is waargeneem. Bhandari (1988), in verdere navorsing in hierdie verband, stel dat in aanvulling tot die gebruik van die beta-koëffisient en grootte, hefboomwerking ook 'n belangrike bydrae lewer in die bepaling van opbrengste. Verbandhoudende studies deur Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao en Lakonishok (1991) en Jegadeesh (1992) stel dat opbrengste verduidelik kan word aan die hand van verskeie veranderlikes, naamlik markekwiteit, beta, prysverdienste verhouding, grootte en ander nie-markverwante faktore. Die kombinering van hierdie faktore het gelei tot die gevolgtrekking dat die MPM model verkeerd gespesifiseerd was. Fama en French (1992 en 1995) se navorsing poog om die multi-dimensionaliteit van beta te bepaal. Hulle bevind onder andere dat aandele wat 'n hoë boekwaarde teenoor prys, 'n hoër verdienste of opbrengs oplewer as ander aandele. Verder is bevind dat 'n positiewe korrelasie tussen winsgewendheid en grootte bestaan. Dit het gelei tot 'n nuwe verhouding in finansiële analise, naamlik die prys-tot-boek verhouding (PB). Die PB-verhouding het egter nooit in die finansiële sektor gerealiseer as 'n prominente analitiese metode nie en word histories deur die prysverdienste verhouding oorskadu. Die skrywer wil gevolglik die raison d' etre vasstel vir die status quo deur 'n empiriese studie van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs vir die periode 1989 tot 1998 te onderneem. Deur jaarlikse finansiële state te ontleed, is die prysverdienste en prys-tot-boek verhoudings bereken. Deur 'n wiskundige afleiding van die twee verhoudings te maak, die Pearson korrelasiekoëffisient, tendensanalise en die Spearman rang korrelasiekoëffisienttoets te gebruik, het die skrywer bevind dat daar prima facie getuienis bestaan dat die prysverdienste verhouding ook gebruik kan word as 'n ekwivalent vir die prys-tot-boek verhouding. Dit bied 'n gedeeltelike verklaring van die ontoereikende rol van die prys-tot- boek verhouding as 'n verklarende veranderlike.

Assignment (MAcc )--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The price-earnings ratio is one of a series of benchmarks developed after the Great Depression, to measure the fair value of shares on a relative basis. It originated from the idea that investors buy the earnings of a company and that the price-earnings ratio provides a consensus indication of the future growth potential of a company. Therefore, the price-earnings ratio is a rating of a company's future profitability. The price-earnings ratio developed, over the years, firstly, into an indicator of the relative risk associated with a company as the market anomalies associated with the ratio were investigated and clarified, and the theoretical background of the ratio integrated with the portfolio theory. It is now clear that the price-earnings ratio can be a useful indicator of the risk associated with an investment and the uncertainty associated with the duration of the growth phase of a company. Secondly, the price-earnings ratio is also a growth and valuation model with a theoretical background that can be linked to popular dividend discount models and the growth opportunities approach to investment valuation. With the use of the price-earnings ratio it is easy to visualise the relative profitability and the total investment required to raise a company's rating of future profitability. This simplicity allows one the opportunity to evaluate the reasonableness and likelihood of the investment reaching its projected potential profit targets. Lastly, as a result of accounting changes and the different accounting rules in force today, the price-earnings ratio also assists in the identification and elimination of the effects of accounting on investment decisions. It is apparent that the price-earnings ratio possesses the capabilities to assist investors significantly with the analysis of investment opportunities. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die prys-verdienste verhouding is een van 'n reeks relatiewe maatstawwe ontwikkel na die Groot Depressie om die redelike waarde van aandele te bepaal. Dit is gebaseer op die idee dat beleggers die winste van 'n maatskappy koop en dat die prys-verdienste verhouding 'n konsensus aanduiding verskaf van die toekomstige groeipotensiaal van 'n maatskappy. As gevolg hiervan is die prys-verdienste verhouding 'n aanduiding van die relatiewe toekomstige winsgewendheid van 'n maatskappy. Die prys-verdienste verhouding het oor die jare ontwikkel, eerstens as 'n aanwyser van die relatiewe risiko verbonde aan 'n maatskappy soos abnormaliteite wat daaraan verwant is ondersoek en verklaar is, en die teorieë onderliggend aan die verhouding ontwikkel het saam met die portefeulje teorie. Dit is nou duidelik dat die prys-verdienste verhouding 'n bruikbare aanduider is van die risiko wat geassosieer word met 'n belegging en die onsekerheid wat gepaard gaan met die duur van die groeifase van 'n maatskappy. Tweedens is die prys-verdienste verhouding ook 'n waardasie- en groeimodel met 'n teoretiese agtergrond wat verband hou met die populêre dividend verdiskonteringsmodelle en die groeigeleenthede-benadering tot waardasie. Met die gebruik van die prys-verdienste verhouding is dit maklik om die relatiewe winsgewendheid en die totale belegging wat benodig word om die waarde van die relatiewe winsgewendheid van 'n maatskappy te verhoog, tevisualiseer. Hierdie eenvoud verskaf die geleentheid om die redelikheid en die waarskynlikheid van 'n belegging om sy voorsiene winsgewendheidsdoelwitte te bereik, te evalueer. Laastens, as 'n resultaat van die rekeningkundige veranderinge, en die verskillende rekeningundige reëls huidiglik van toepassing in die wêreld, help die prys-verdienste verhouding ook met die identifikasie en die eliminasie van rekeningkundige komplikasies op beleggingsbesluite. Dit is duidelik dat die prys-verdienste verhouding die vermoë het om die belegger by te staan met die ontleding van beleggingsgeleenthede.

本益比有資訊內涵存在 (Basu , 1977)，為投資人做投資決策時所廣泛使用。Lev (1992) 認為，本益比發生變動，或是公司本益比與產業平均數存在持續性差異，即顯示公司價值有錯誤評價之可能，因此，本研究將樣本分為三組，透過迴歸分析探討83年至90年間上市公司中，本益比持續性地高於（低於）產業平均數的公司，是否進行盈餘管理，以及相較於其他公司，其盈餘持續性與價格攸關性如何。研究結果發現，本益比持續性地高於產業平均數的公司，其盈餘管理行為並不明顯；本益比持續性地低於產業平均數的公司，確實會進行盈餘管理，使得盈餘持續性較差，但有較好的盈餘價值攸關性。 / There are information in Price-Earnings（PE） ratio so that many investors use it for making decisions. Changing in PE ratio , or PE ratio different from the average of industry over time ,will suggest to managers the possibility of misvaluation. Therefore, the study divides the samples to three parts, using regression analysis to investigate if the firms with PE ratio continuously higher (or lower) than the industry average number will use managerial discretion to proceed earnings management. Besides, comparing to other firms, the two sample companies will have what kinds of characteristics of earnings . The result indicate that the firms with PE ratio higher than industry average number, their earnings management behavior is not obvious. On the contrary, the firms with PE ratio lower than industry average number indeed proceed earnings management, inducing worse earnings persistence and better value relevance of earnings.

Mini study project (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This mini study project aims to investigate the prediction value ofpricelearnings (pIE) ratios. The ability of investors to predict earnings growth is tested by examining the relationship between PIE ratios and excess earnings growth. The study further also investigates the relationship between PIE ratios and two other variables: share returns and dividend yields. The study design was based on that of two other studies: Fuller, Huberts and Levinson (1993) and Hamman, Jordaan and Smit (1995). These studies specifically tested the random walk theory of earnings. In this study all the companies were allocated to one of four PIE portfolios according to the magnitude of their PIE ratio. The relationship between PIE ratios and the dependent variables (earnings growth, share returns and dividend yields) was then analysed by comparing the medians of the dependent variables of the different quartiles (pIE portfolios). The investigation into the relation between PIE ratios and excess earnings growth indicated that companies with high PIE ratios tend to have higher excess earnings growth. The relationship, however, seemed to be more pronounced in the one year results than in the two and four year results. The share returns seemed to be randomly distributed and it was more difficult to identify the correlation with PIE ratios. For a two and four year period however, the lowest PIE quartile delivered the highest returns and the highest PIE quartile performed very poorly. Lastly it was found that companies with high PIE ratios had lower dividend yields and companies with lower PIE ratios had higher dividend yields. Even though some departures from randomness were observed when comparing the PIE quartiles, the variability of the dependant variables at individual stock level was high and indicated random distribution. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie ministudieprojek het ten doelom die voorspellingvermoë van prys/verdienste (PN) verhoudings te ondersoek. Die vermoë van beleggers om winsgroei te voorspel word getoets deur die verwantskap tussen PN-verhoudings en surplus winsgroei te ondersoek. Verder ondersoek die studie ook die verwantskap tussen PN-verhoudings en twee verdere veranderlikes: aandeelopbrengste en dividendopbrengste. Die ontwerp van die studie is gebaseer op dié van twee ander studies: Fuller, Huberts en Levinson (1993) en Hamman, Jordaan en Smit (1995). Die twee studies het spesifiek die ewekansige verspreiding van winste ondersoek. Alle maatskappye in hierdie studie is geallokeer aan een van vier PN-protefeuljes volgens die vlak van hulle PNverhouding. Die verwantskap tussen PN-verhoudings en die afhanklike veranderlikes (winsgroei, aandeelopbrengste en dividendopbrengste) is dan ondersoek deur die mediane van die afhanklike veranderlikes van die verskillende PN-kwartiele (portefeuljes) te vergelyk. Die analise van die surplus winsgroei het aangedui dat maatskappye met hoë PNverhoudings geneig is om beter surplus winsgroei te toon. Die verwantskap blyk egter om duideliker te wees vir 'n eenjaar-periode as vir 'n tydperk van twee of vier jaar. Die aandeelopbrengste het 'n ewekansige verspreiding getoon en dit was moeilik om 'n verwantskap met die PN-verhoudings te identifiseer. Vir 'n twee en vier jaar periode het die laagste PN-kwartiel die hoogste aandeelopbrengs gelewer en die hoogste PNkwartiel het baie sleg presteer. Laastens is daar gevind dat maatskappye met hoë PN-verhoudings laer dividendopbrengste gelewer het en maatskappye met lae PN-verhoudings hoë dividendopbrengste. Alhoewel afwykings van ewekansigheid geïdentifiseer is met die vergelyking tussen kwartiele, was die variansie van die afhanklike veranderlikes op individuele aandelevlak hoog en het gedui op 'n ewekansige verspreiding.

The study’s main concern was the extent to which the price earnings (P/E) valuation model and constant growth dividend discount valuation model (DDM) can estimate the intrinsic value of a share. The context within which the concern was addressed is the boom and recession conditions of South Africa during the period 1994–1999. The study used the following descriptive statistics to make a comparison of the performance of each model: <ul><li> Theil’s inequality coefficient; </li><li> coefficient of variation; </li><li> percentage improvement in the inter-quartile range (%IMP); and</li><li> the Wilcoxon test and the Kruskal-Wallis test. </li></ul> The study found that: <ul><li> the DDM is more efficient in estimating the intrinsic value in the boom period compared to the recession period. </li><li> P/E is more efficient in estimating the intrinsic value in the recession period than the boom period. </li><li> When the business cycle changed from a boom to a recession the %IMP increased for the DDM and the P/E model showing that there was no improvement in performance. Instead, it showed an increase in the IQR of each model. The increase in the DDM was smaller than that of the P/E model. </li><li> The difference between the absolute valuation errors of the DDM across the two phases of the business cycle (boom and recession) was not statistically significant while those of the P/E were significant. </li></ul> / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Financial Management / unrestricted

Through a multiple regression analysis on a number of financial and non-financial variables with the actual share growth over a period of 36 months, it was found that no correlation or relationship exists between share growth and almost all variables commonly used as screens for purposed of identifying stocks to potentially invest in for the longer term. The four commonly selected value investing ratios explored in this study are the price-earnings ratio, dividend yield, price-to-sales ratio and book-to-sales ratio. Only two of these ratios were found to have a relationship to the growth in stock prices, albeit, very weak. If anything, this study has shown the importance of length historical data when trying to determine relationships and trends in order to determine whether a company is has investment potential.The non-financial information used consisted of the environmental, social and governance scores or ratings as evaluated by independent analysts across companies in the industry. This is a relative new measure and therefore lacks sufficient history to enable credible conclusion of its impact on the growth of a share or the return investors over the short to medium term. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / pagibs2015 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / Unrestricted

Background: Low Price-Earnings ratio, low Book-to market ratio and low stock prices can give the impression that a stock is “cheap”. Is it through systematic use of these portfolio strategies possible to beat the market index – in other words does financial illusions exist? Purpose: To examine if the Stockholm Stock Exchange is an efficient market. Limitations: The efficiency is tested solely through the chosen portfolio strategies: low Price-Earnings ratio, low Book-to-market ratio and low stock prices. The research only includes stocks listed on the A-, O-, OTC- and Attract40 lists during the period 1998-01-01 to 2001-12-31. Methodology: With CAPM as an equilibrium model we are examining if the P/e, Book-to-market or the stock price portfolios generate systematic overperformance in comparision to the market index SIXRX. Significance tests on the 5 % level have been performed to determine if the returns are significantly separated from zero. Results: We can establish that none of the chosen portfolio strategies generated any significant systematic overperformance.

<p>Background: Low Price-Earnings ratio, low Book-to market ratio and low stock prices can give the impression that a stock is “cheap”. Is it through systematic use of these portfolio strategies possible to beat the market index – in other words does financial illusions exist? </p><p>Purpose: To examine if the Stockholm Stock Exchange is an efficient market. Limitations: The efficiency is tested solely through the chosen portfolio strategies: low Price-Earnings ratio, low Book-to-market ratio and low stock prices. The research only includes stocks listed on the A-, O-, OTC- and Attract40 lists during the period 1998-01-01 to 2001-12-31. Methodology: With CAPM as an equilibrium model we are examining if the P/e, Book-to-market or the stock price portfolios generate systematic overperformance in comparision to the market index SIXRX. Significance tests on the 5 % level have been performed to determine if the returns are significantly separated from zero. </p><p>Results: We can establish that none of the chosen portfolio strategies generated any significant systematic overperformance.</p>

O principal objetivo da dissertação é verificar se é possível superar o principal índice acionário brasileiro (Ibovespa) no longo prazo utilizando indicadores relativos (múltiplos de mercado), baseados em dados passados ou projetados. Foram escolhidos quatro indicadores, advindos de uma pesquisa com relatórios de 33 instituições que operam no mercado brasileiro e na disponibilidade de dados históricos e projetados. São eles: Preço/Lucro (P/L), Enterprise Value/Ebitda (EV/Ebitda), Preço/Valor Patrimonial (P/VPA) e Enterprise Value/Receita Líquida (EV/RL). A comparação entre portfolios passados e projetados procura verificar se é válido o que o mercado aplica na prática, de melhor performance dos dados futuros em relação aos históricos. Considerando limitações inerentes ao mercado financeiro e ao período da pesquisa, os resultados sugerem que é possível obter um desempenho superior ao principal benchmark nacional, o Ibovespa, principalmente usando carteiras de Valor baseadas em menor Preço/Lucro (P/L) projetado e/ou passado. Os indicadores de menor Preço/ Valor Patrimonial (P/VPA) e Enterprise Value/Receita Líquida (EV/RL) desempenharam bem, inclusive acima do Ibovespa, contudo foram estatisticamente menos significantes do que o P/L em diversos testes. Em relação ao múltiplo EV/Ebitda, os resultados para o portfolio de menor índice projetado foram um tanto quanto decepcionantes. O segundo indicador mais utilizado pelo mercado não teve significância estatística em seus retornos se comparado com zero. A montagem de portfolios considerou um caso base com 12 ações igualmente ponderadas. Também foram feitas sensibilidades de porfolios compostos de diferentes números de ações, bem como com ponderação por valor de mercado, exames de consistência através de portfolios randômicos e testes de retornos diários/mensais. / The main goal of this dissertation is to verify if it is possible to outperform the Brazilian stock index (Ibovespa) over the long term using relative valuation, based on past and predicted data. It was chosen four market multiples, according to a survey done with 33 brazilian investment firms: Price/Earnings (P/E), Enterprise Value/Ebitda (EV/Ebitda), Price/Book (P/B) and Enterprise Value/Net Sales (EV/Sales). Considering the limitation of time and data availability, the results suggest that it is possible to beat the market index using relative valuation, mainly with projected and past Value Price/Earnings portfolios. The P/B and EV/sales portfolios also had a good performance, but in smaller proportion when compared against P/E. Regarding to EV/Ebitda, the results were a little disappointing as the pure returns were not statistically different from zero. The base case portfolios were compounded by 12 stocks equally weighted. It was also run a sensitivity analysis using portfolios with different compositions (ranging from 5 to 18 stocks), randon portfolios and with value weighted.

O principal objetivo da dissertação é verificar se é possível superar o principal índice acionário brasileiro (Ibovespa) no longo prazo utilizando indicadores relativos (múltiplos de mercado), baseados em dados passados ou projetados. Foram escolhidos quatro indicadores, advindos de uma pesquisa com relatórios de 33 instituições que operam no mercado brasileiro e na disponibilidade de dados históricos e projetados. São eles: Preço/Lucro (P/L), Enterprise Value/Ebitda (EV/Ebitda), Preço/Valor Patrimonial (P/VPA) e Enterprise Value/Receita Líquida (EV/RL). A comparação entre portfolios passados e projetados procura verificar se é válido o que o mercado aplica na prática, de melhor performance dos dados futuros em relação aos históricos. Considerando limitações inerentes ao mercado financeiro e ao período da pesquisa, os resultados sugerem que é possível obter um desempenho superior ao principal benchmark nacional, o Ibovespa, principalmente usando carteiras de Valor baseadas em menor Preço/Lucro (P/L) projetado e/ou passado. Os indicadores de menor Preço/ Valor Patrimonial (P/VPA) e Enterprise Value/Receita Líquida (EV/RL) desempenharam bem, inclusive acima do Ibovespa, contudo foram estatisticamente menos significantes do que o P/L em diversos testes. Em relação ao múltiplo EV/Ebitda, os resultados para o portfolio de menor índice projetado foram um tanto quanto decepcionantes. O segundo indicador mais utilizado pelo mercado não teve significância estatística em seus retornos se comparado com zero. A montagem de portfolios considerou um caso base com 12 ações igualmente ponderadas. Também foram feitas sensibilidades de porfolios compostos de diferentes números de ações, bem como com ponderação por valor de mercado, exames de consistência através de portfolios randômicos e testes de retornos diários/mensais. / The main goal of this dissertation is to verify if it is possible to outperform the Brazilian stock index (Ibovespa) over the long term using relative valuation, based on past and predicted data. It was chosen four market multiples, according to a survey done with 33 brazilian investment firms: Price/Earnings (P/E), Enterprise Value/Ebitda (EV/Ebitda), Price/Book (P/B) and Enterprise Value/Net Sales (EV/Sales). Considering the limitation of time and data availability, the results suggest that it is possible to beat the market index using relative valuation, mainly with projected and past Value Price/Earnings portfolios. The P/B and EV/sales portfolios also had a good performance, but in smaller proportion when compared against P/E. Regarding to EV/Ebitda, the results were a little disappointing as the pure returns were not statistically different from zero. The base case portfolios were compounded by 12 stocks equally weighted. It was also run a sensitivity analysis using portfolios with different compositions (ranging from 5 to 18 stocks), randon portfolios and with value weighted.